scholarly journals Atmospheric and Oceanic Conditions Associated with Southern Australian Heat Waves: A CMIP5 Analysis

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (20) ◽  
pp. 7807-7829 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ariaan Purich ◽  
Tim Cowan ◽  
Wenju Cai ◽  
Peter van Rensch ◽  
Petteri Uotila ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Heat Wave ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Sea Level Pressure ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Wave Statistics ◽  
High Emission ◽  
Mean State

Abstract Atmospheric and oceanic conditions associated with southern Australian heat waves are examined using phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models. Accompanying work analyzing modeled heat wave statistics for Australia finds substantial increases in the frequency, duration, and temperature of heat waves by the end of the twenty-first century. This study assesses the ability of CMIP5 models to simulate the synoptic and oceanic conditions associated with southern Australian heat waves, and examines how the classical atmospheric setup associated with heat waves is projected to change in response to mean-state warming. To achieve this, near-surface temperature, mean sea level pressure, and sea surface temperature (SST) from the historical and high-emission simulations are analyzed. CMIP5 models are found to represent the synoptic setup associated with heat waves well, despite showing greater variation in simulating SST anomalies. The models project a weakening of the pressure couplet associated with future southern Australian heat waves, suggesting that even a non-classical synoptic setup is able to generate more frequent heat waves in a warmer world. A future poleward shift and strengthening of heat wave–inducing anticyclones is confirmed using a tracking scheme applied to model projections. Model consensus implies that while anticyclones associated with the hottest future southern Australian heat waves will be more intense and originate farther poleward, a greater proportion of heat waves occur in association with a weaker synoptic setup that, when combined with warmer mean-state temperatures, gives rise to more future heat waves.

scholarly journals Evaluation of soil moisture in CMIP5 simulations over contiguous United States using in situ and satellite observations

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shanshui Yuan ◽  
Steven M. Quiring
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Soil Column ◽  
Regional Analysis ◽  
Soil Layer ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Near Surface

Abstract. This study provides a comprehensive evaluation of soil moisture simulations in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) extended historical experiment (2003 to 2012). Soil moisture from in situ and satellite sources are used to evaluate CMIP5 simulations in the contiguous United States (CONUS). Both near-surface (0–10 cm) and soil column (0–100 cm) simulations from more than 14 CMIP5 models are evaluated during the warm season (April–September). Multi-model ensemble means and the performance of individual models are assessed at a monthly time scale. Our results indicate that CMIP5 models can reproduce the seasonal variability in soil moisture over CONUS. However, the models tend to overestimate the magnitude of both near-surface and soil-column soil moisture in the western U.S. and underestimate it in the eastern U.S. There are large variations in model performance, especially in the near-surface. There are significant regional and inter-model variations in performance. Results of a regional analysis show that in deeper soil layer, the CMIP5 soil moisture simulations tend to be most skillful in the southern U.S. Based on both the satellite-derived and in situ soil moisture, CESM1, CCSM4 and GFDL-ESM2M perform best in the 0–10 cm soil layer and CESM1, CCSM4, GFDL-ESM2M and HadGEM2-ES perform best in the 0–100 cm soil layer.

scholarly journals Southeastern Australian Heat Waves from a Trajectory Viewpoint

2017 ◽  
Vol 145 (10) ◽  
pp. 4109-4125 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julian F. Quinting ◽  
Michael J. Reeder
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Heat Wave ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
The South ◽  
South Indian Ocean ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
South Indian ◽  
Eastern Australia ◽  
Upper Level

Although heat waves account for more premature deaths in the Australian region than any other natural disaster, an understanding of their dynamics is still incomplete. The present study identifies the dynamical mechanisms responsible for heat waves in southeastern Australia using 10-day backward trajectories computed from the ERA-Interim reanalyses. Prior to the formation of a heat wave, trajectories located over the south Indian Ocean and over Australia in the lower and midtroposphere ascend diabatically ahead of an upper-level trough and over a baroclinic zone to the south of the continent. These trajectories account for 44% of all trajectories forming the anticyclonic upper-level potential vorticity anomalies that characterize heat waves in the region. At the same time, trajectories located over the south Indian Ocean in the lower part of the troposphere descend and aggregate over the Tasman Sea. This descent is accompanied by a strong adiabatic warming. A key finding is that the temperatures are raised further through diabatic heating in the boundary layer over eastern Australia but not over the inner Australian continent. From eastern Australia, the air parcels are advected southward as they become incorporated into the near-surface anticyclone that defines the heat wave. In contrast to past studies, the importance of cloud-diabatic processes in the evolution of the midlatitude large-scale flow and the role of adiabatic compression in elevating the near-surface temperatures is emphasized. Likewise, the role of the local surface sensible heat fluxes is deemphasized.

scholarly journals Time-Varying Response of ENSO-Induced Tropical Pacific Rainfall to Global Warming in CMIP5 Models. Part II: Intermodel Uncertainty

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (2) ◽  
pp. 595-608 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ping Huang
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
Global Mean Surface Temperature ◽  
Global Mean ◽  
Mean State

Anomalous rainfall in the tropical Pacific driven by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a crucial pathway of ENSO’s global impacts. The changes in ENSO rainfall under global warming vary among the models, even though previous studies have shown that many models project that ENSO rainfall will likely intensify and shift eastward in response to global warming. The present study evaluates the robustness of the changes in ENSO rainfall in 32 CMIP5 models forced under the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. The robust increase in mean-state moisture dominates the robust intensification of ENSO rainfall. The uncertain amplitude changes in ENSO-related SST variability are the largest source of the uncertainty in ENSO rainfall changes through influencing the amplitude changes in ENSO-driven circulation variability, whereas the structural changes in ENSO SST and ENSO circulation enhancement in the central Pacific are more robust than the amplitude changes. The spatial pattern of the mean-state SST changes—the departure of local SST changes from the tropical mean—with an El Niño–like pattern is a relatively robust factor, although it also contains pronounced intermodel differences. The intermodel spread of historical ENSO circulation is another noteworthy source of the uncertainty in ENSO rainfall changes. The intermodel standard deviation of ENSO rainfall changes increases along with the increase in global-mean surface temperature. However, the robustness of enhanced ENSO rainfall changes in the central-eastern Pacific is almost unchanged, whereas the eastward shift of ENSO rainfall is increasingly robust along with the increase in global-mean surface temperature.

scholarly journals Southern Africa Summer Drought and Heat Waves: Observations and Coupled Model Behavior

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (22) ◽  
pp. 6033-6046 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bradfield Lyon
Keyword(s):  
Conditional Probability ◽  
Heat Wave ◽  
Southern Africa ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Seasonal Precipitation ◽  
Drought Conditions

Abstract Observations of daily maximum temperature (Tx) and monthly precipitation and their counterpart fields from three coupled models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) archive have been used for exploratory research into the behavior of heat waves, drought, and their joint occurrence across the southern Africa subcontinent. The focus is on seasonal drought and heat waves during austral summer [December–February (DJF)] for land areas south of 15°S. Observational results (Tx available only for South Africa) are compared with those based on CMIP3 twentieth-century climate runs for a common analysis period of 1961–2000 while climate projections for the twenty-first century are also considered using the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B forcing scenario. Heat waves were defined when daily Tx values exceeded the 90th percentile for at least 3 consecutive days, while drought was identified via a standardized index of seasonal precipitation. When assessed over the entire study domain the unconditional probability of a heat wave, and its conditional probability given drought conditions, were similar in the models and (for a smaller domain) observations. The models exhibited less ability in reproducing the observed conditional probability of a heat wave given El Niño conditions. This appears to be related to a comparatively weak seasonal precipitation teleconnection pattern into southern Africa in the models during El Niño when drought conditions often develop. The heat wave–drought relationship did not substantially change in climate projections when computing anomalies from future climate means. However, relative to a 1981–2000 base period, the probability of a heat wave increases by over 3.5 times relative to the current climate. Projections across the three models suggest a future drying trend during DJF although this was found to be a model-dependent result, consistent with other studies. However, a decreasing trend in the evaporative fraction was identified across models, indicating that evaluation of future drought conditions needs to take into account both the supply (precipitation) and demand (evaporation) side of the surface water balance.

scholarly journals Diagnosing Relationships between Mean State Biases and El Niño Shortwave Feedback in CMIP5 Models

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (4) ◽  
pp. 1315-1335 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samantha Ferrett ◽  
Matthew Collins ◽  
Hong-Li Ren
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Heat Fluxes ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Coupled Models ◽  
El Niño Events ◽  
Mean State ◽  
Cloud Response ◽  
El Nino Events

The rate of damping of tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) associated with El Niño events by surface shortwave heat fluxes has significant biases in current coupled climate models [phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5)]. Of 33 CMIP5 models, 16 have shortwave feedbacks that are weakly negative in comparison to observations, or even positive, resulting in a tendency of amplification of SSTAs. Two biases in the cloud response to El Niño SSTAs are identified and linked to significant mean state biases in CMIP5 models. First, cool mean SST and reduced precipitation are linked to comparatively less cloud formation in the eastern equatorial Pacific during El Niño events, driven by a weakened atmospheric ascent response. Second, a spurious reduction of cloud driven by anomalous surface relative humidity during El Niño events is present in models with more stable eastern Pacific mean atmospheric conditions and more low cloud in the mean state. Both cloud response biases contribute to a weak negative shortwave feedback or a positive shortwave feedback that amplifies El Niño SSTAs. Differences between shortwave feedback in the coupled models and the corresponding atmosphere-only models (AMIP) are also linked to mean state differences, consistent with the biases found between different coupled models. Shortwave feedback bias can still persist in AMIP, as a result of persisting weak shortwave responses to anomalous cloud and weak cloud responses to atmospheric ascent. This indicates the importance of bias in the atmosphere component to coupled model feedback and mean state biases.

scholarly journals Evaluation and Projections of Wind Power Resources over China for the Energy Industry Using CMIP5 Models

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (10) ◽  
pp. 2417 ◽  
Author(s):  
Akintayo T. Abolude ◽  
Wen Zhou ◽  
Akintomide Afolayan Akinsanola
Keyword(s):  
Wind Power ◽  
Power Density ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Ground Level ◽  
Energy Industry ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Current Time ◽  
Wind Power Density

The energy industry is faced with important investment and optimization choices especially for wind power as a fuel of the future, especially for China which boasts the largest installed wind power capacity. This study therefore assessed the potential status of future wind power over China using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models. Changes in wind power density relative to the current time period 1981–2005 were then analyzed using near-surface wind speeds extrapolated to hub-height of 90 m above ground level. The results showed relatively modest differences between the models and reanalysis. The majority of the models showed any two of location, shape, and size agreement for peak areas albeit models BCC-CSM-1-1-M, BNU-ESM, and CanESM2 tended to overestimate wind speed by up to 2.5 m/s. The multi-model ensemble mean performed better than most individual models in representing the wind characteristics over the study area. Future changes in wind power density showed an increase (decrease) over the coastal areas of the South China Sea and Bay of Bengal (areas along the 30°–40° N belt). In all, the changes were not significant enough to neither warrant a move away from wind energy nor threaten considerably the marketability and profitability under the present warming scenario rate.

Temperate-zone reforestation as a tool for local climate adaptation? 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kimberly Novick
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Climate Mitigation ◽  
Surface Cooling ◽  
Local Cooling ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Local Climate

<p>In addition to dramatic reductions to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, most pathways for limiting global warming to less than 2 degrees C rely on managed alterations to the land surface designed to increase land carbon uptake and storage (so-called “natural climate solutions”, or NCS). Reforestation is the NCS with the largest estimated climate mitigation potential, and at least in energy-limited temperate climates, evidence is mounting that transitions from short-stature ecosystems (croplands, grasslands) to forests substantially reduce surface temperature. In this way, reforestation, at least in some places, may also represent a useful tool for local climate adaptation. However, existing work on the topic has tended to focus on how reforestation affects mean annual and seasonal surface temperature, with comparatively less attention paid to the biophysical impacts of reforestation when local cooling would be most beneficial (i.e. at mid-day, and especially droughts and heat waves). Moreover, while surface temperature is a critical driver of ecosystem processes, arguably the near-surface air temperature is the more relevant target for climate adaptation. The duality between reforestation impacts on surface and air temperature has historically been challenging to deconvolve, and thus we do not yet understand the extent to which forest surface cooling extends to the air. In this talk, new strategies are discussed for blending flux tower data and remote sensing observations to uncover the links between reforestation, surface energy balance, and near-surface air temperature dynamics, with a particular emphasis on how plant water use strategies mediate these relationships during summer days and periods of hydrologic stress.  </p>

Determining the range for CMIP climate projections for Europe using a sub-selected model ensemble based on key model performance indicators and key regional physical processes.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tamzin Palmer ◽  
Carol Mc Sweeney ◽  
Ben Booth
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Performance Indicators ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Physical Processes ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
European Area ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

<p>An alternative approach to constraining climate projections based on a probabilistic approach with observational constraints, is to select a subset of models from the ensemble based on their ability to represent key physical processes, along with some indicators of model performance. The method that is presented here is based on the assumption that if a model is unable to reproduce the key factors important for determining the regional climate, the projections from this model are not considered reliable. The projection range for CMIP5 for the three EUCP European regions is assessed using two different subsampled model ensembles.</p><p>The first sub-sampling method presented uses the approach of Mc Sweeney et al. (2015), which assessed the models based on their performance for the UK climate. Each model in the CMIP5 ensemble (where data is available), is firstly assessed against these key performance indicators and poor performers eliminated from the selection. Several models also share large portions of code and therefore have similar errors and projections, Sanderson et al 2015a and 2015b quantifies these similarities. This analysis was used identify ‘near-neighbours’ and further reduce the selection. The applicability of a sub-selection of models based on their performance for the UK climate is assessed for the wider European area and found to reduce the projected range for the Northern European Area (NEU), for precipitation and near surface temperature considerably. The impact on the projected ranges for the Central European Area (CEU) and the Mediterranean (MED) was not as large, suggesting that a different set of physical processes are of primary importance for these regions.</p><p>To further investigate the effect of subsampling based on physical processes, a subset of CMIP5 models identified by the approach of Vogel et al. (2018) has been applied for the EUCP European areas. Vogel et al. (2018) looked at the ability of the CMIP5 models to reproduce the correlation between the hottest day of the year and precipitation within the same range as that found in the observations. This approach is designed to subsample the ensemble based on the ability of the model to represent soil moisture feedback processes with the atmosphere. It is thought that these processes are likely to be increasingly important for determining the projected climate in the CEU and MED regions.  </p><p>Finally, the projection range for the CMIP6 ensemble in the EUCP regions for precipitation and the near surface temperature will be presented and compared with those for CMIP5.</p>

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