scholarly journals Seasonality in Prediction Skill and Predictable Pattern of Tropical Indian Ocean SST

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (20) ◽  
pp. 7962-7984 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jieshun Zhu ◽  
Bohua Huang ◽  
Arun Kumar ◽  
James L. Kinter III
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Tropical Indian Ocean ◽  
Prediction Skill ◽  
Lead Times ◽  
Predictable Pattern ◽  
Basin Mode ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Atmospheric Variations

Abstract Seasonality of sea surface temperature (SST) predictions in the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) was investigated using hindcasts (1982–2009) made with the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2). CFSv2 produced useful predictions of the TIO SST with lead times up to several months. A substantial component of this skill was attributable to signals other than the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD). The prediction skill of the IOD index, defined as the difference between the SST anomaly (SSTA) averaged over 10°S–0°, 90°–110°E and 10°S–10°N, 50°–70°E, had strong seasonality, with high scores in the boreal autumn. In spite of skill in predicting its two poles with longer leads, CFSv2 did not have skill significantly better than persistence in predicting IOD. This was partly because the seasonal nature of IOD intrinsically limits its predictability. The seasonality of the predictable patterns of the TIO SST was further explored by applying the maximum signal-to-noise (MSN) empirical orthogonal function (EOF) method to the predicted SSTA in March and October, respectively. The most predictable pattern in spring was the TIO basin warming, which is closely associated with El Niño. The basin mode, including its associated atmospheric anomalies, can be predicted at least 9 months ahead, even though some biases were evident. On the other hand, the most predictable pattern in fall was characterized by the IOD mode. This mode and its associated atmospheric variations can be skillfully predicted only 1–2 seasons ahead. Statistically, the predictable IOD mode coexists with El Niño; however, the 1994 event in a non-ENSO year (at least not a canonical ENSO year) can also be predicted at least 3 months ahead by CFSv2.

scholarly journals Two Independent Triggers for the Indian Ocean Dipole/Zonal Mode in a Coupled GCM

2005 ◽  
Vol 18 (17) ◽  
pp. 3428-3449 ◽  
Author(s):  
Albert S. Fischer ◽  
Pascal Terray ◽  
Eric Guilyardi ◽  
Silvio Gualdi ◽  
Pascale Delecluse
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Indian Ocean Dipole ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Tropical Indian Ocean ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Dynamical Response ◽  
Thermocline Depth ◽  
Second Phase ◽  
The Indian Ocean

Abstract The question of whether and how tropical Indian Ocean dipole or zonal mode (IOZM) interannual variability is independent of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability in the Pacific is addressed in a comparison of twin 200-yr runs of a coupled climate model. The first is a reference simulation, and the second has ENSO-scale variability suppressed with a constraint on the tropical Pacific wind stress. The IOZM can exist in the model without ENSO, and the composite evolution of the main anomalies in the Indian Ocean in the two simulations is virtually identical. Its growth depends on a positive feedback between anomalous equatorial easterly winds, upwelling equatorial and coastal Kelvin waves reducing the thermocline depth and sea surface temperature off the coast of Sumatra, and the atmospheric dynamical response to the subsequently reduced convection. Two IOZM triggers in the boreal spring are found. The first is an anomalous Hadley circulation over the eastern tropical Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent, with an early northward penetration of the Southern Hemisphere southeasterly trades. This situation grows out of cooler sea surface temperatures in the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean left behind by a reinforcement of the late austral summer winds. The second trigger is a consequence of a zonal shift in the center of convection associated with a developing El Niño, a Walker cell anomaly. The first trigger is the only one present in the constrained simulation and is similar to the evolution of anomalies in 1994, when the IOZM occurred in the absence of a Pacific El Niño state. The presence of these two triggers—the first independent of ENSO and the second phase locking the IOZM to El Niño—allows an understanding of both the existence of IOZM events when Pacific conditions are neutral and the significant correlation between the IOZM and El Niño.

scholarly journals Weakened Anomalous Western North Pacific Anticyclone during an El Niño–Decaying Summer under a Warmer Climate: Dominant Role of the Weakened Impact of the Tropical Indian Ocean on the Atmosphere

2018 ◽  
Vol 32 (1) ◽  
pp. 213-230 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chao He ◽  
Tianjun Zhou ◽  
Tim Li
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
El Niño ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Tropical Indian Ocean ◽  
Tropospheric Temperature ◽  
Coupled Models ◽  
Subtropical Anticyclone ◽  
Mean State

Abstract The western North Pacific subtropical anticyclone (WNPAC) is the most prominent atmospheric circulation anomaly over the subtropical Northern Hemisphere during the decaying summer of an El Niño event. Based on a comparison between the RCP8.5 and the historical experiments of 30 coupled models from the CMIP5, we show evidence that the anomalous WNPAC during the El Niño–decaying summer is weaker in a warmer climate although the amplitude of the El Niño remains generally unchanged. The weakened impact of the sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) over the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) on the atmosphere is essential for the weakened anomalous WNPAC. In a warmer climate, the warm tropospheric temperature (TT) anomaly in the tropical free troposphere stimulated by the El Niño–related SSTA is enhanced through stronger moist adiabatic adjustment in a warmer mean state, even if the SSTA of El Niño is unchanged. But the amplitude of the warm SSTA over TIO remains generally unchanged in an El Niño–decaying summer, the static stability of the boundary layer over TIO is increased, and the positive rainfall anomaly over TIO is weakened. As a result, the warm Kelvin wave emanating from TIO is weakened because of a weaker latent heating anomaly over TIO, which is responsible for the weakened WNPAC anomaly. Numerical experiments support the weakened sensitivity of precipitation anomaly over TIO to local SSTA under an increase of mean-state SST and its essential role in the weakened anomalous WNPAC, independent of any change in the SSTA.

scholarly journals Isolated Effects of Indian Ocean Basin-Wide and El Niño–Southern Oscillation on Austral Winter Rainfall over South America

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 1605
Author(s):  
Mary T. Kayano ◽  
Wilmar L. Cerón ◽  
Rita V. Andreoli ◽  
Rodrigo A. F. Souza ◽  
Itamara P. Souza
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
South America ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Tropical Indian Ocean ◽  
Ocean Basin ◽  
El Niño Southern Oscillation ◽  
El Nino Southern Oscillation ◽  
Partial Correlations

Contrasting effects of the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans on the atmospheric circulation and rainfall interannual variations over South America during southern winter are assessed considering the effects of the warm Indian Ocean basin-wide (IOBW) and El Niño (EN) events, and of the cold IOBW and La Niña events, which are represented by sea surface temperature-based indices. Analyses are undertaken using total and partial correlations. When the effects of the two warm events are isolated from each other, the contrasts between the associated rainfall anomalies in most of South America become accentuated. In particular, EN relates to anomalous wet conditions, and the warm IOBW event to opposite conditions in extensive areas of the 5° S–25° S band. These effects in the 5° S–15° S sector are due to the anomalous regional Hadley cells, with rising motions in this band for the EN and sinking motions for the warm IOBW event. Meanwhile, in subtropical South America, the opposite effects of the EN and warm IOBW seem to be due to the presence of anomalous anticyclone and cyclone and associated moisture transport, respectively. These opposite effects of the warm IOBW and EN events on the rainfall in part of central South America might explain the weak rainfall relation in this region to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Our results emphasize the important role of the tropical Indian Ocean in the South American climate and environment during southern winter.

scholarly journals El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole Modes: Their Effects on South American Rainfall during Austral Spring

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (11) ◽  
pp. 1437
Author(s):  
Mary T. Kayano ◽  
Wilmar L. Cerón ◽  
Rita V. Andreoli ◽  
Rodrigo A. F. Souza ◽  
Itamara P. Souza ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Indian Ocean Dipole ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Tropical Indian Ocean ◽  
El Niño Southern Oscillation ◽  
El Nino Southern Oscillation ◽  
Austral Spring ◽  
Precipitation Anomalies

This paper examines the effects of the tropical Pacific Ocean (TPO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) modes in the interannual variations of austral spring rainfall over South America (SA). The TPO mode refers to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The isolated effects between IOD and TPO were estimated, events were chosen from the residual TPO (R-TPO) or residual IOD (R-IOD), and the IOD (TPO) effects for the R-TPO (R-IOD) composites were removed from the variables. One relevant result was the nonlinear precipitation response to R-TPO and R-IOD. This feature was accentuated for the R-IOD composites. The positive R-IOD composite showed significant negative precipitation anomalies along equatorial SA east of 55° W and in subtropical western SA, and showed positive anomalies in northwestern SA and central Brazil. The negative R-IOD composite indicated significant positive precipitation anomalies in northwestern Amazon, central–eastern Brazil north of 20° S, and western subtropical SA, and negative anomalies were found in western SA south of 30° S. This nonlinearity was likely due to the distinct atmospheric circulation responses to the anomalous heating sources located in longitudinally distinct regions: the western tropical Indian Ocean and areas neighboring Indonesia. The results obtained in this study might be relevant for climate monitoring and modeling studies.

scholarly journals Possible Impact of the Indian Ocean SST on the Northern Hemisphere Circulation during El Niño*

2007 ◽  
Vol 20 (13) ◽  
pp. 3164-3189 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Annamalai ◽  
H. Okajima ◽  
M. Watanabe
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Tropical Indian Ocean ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
The Indian Ocean ◽  
Precipitation Anomalies ◽  
Sst Anomalies ◽  
The Tropical Pacific

Abstract Two atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs), differing in numerics and physical parameterizations, are employed to test the hypothesis that El Niño–induced sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Indian Ocean impact considerably the Northern Hemisphere extratropical circulation anomalies during boreal winter [January–March +1 (JFM +1)] of El Niño years. The hypothesis grew out of recent findings that ocean dynamics influence SST variations over the southwest Indian Ocean (SWIO), and these in turn impact local precipitation. A set of ensemble simulations with the AGCMs was carried out to assess the combined and individual effects of tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean SST anomalies on the extratropical circulation. To elucidate the dynamics responsible for the teleconnection, solutions were sought from a linear version of one of the AGCMs. Both AGCMs demonstrate that the observed precipitation anomalies over the SWIO are determined by local SST anomalies. Analysis of the circulation response shows that over the Pacific–North American (PNA) region, the 500-hPa height anomalies, forced by Indian Ocean SST anomalies, oppose and destructively interfere with those forced by tropical Pacific SST anomalies. The model results validated with reanalysis data show that compared to the runs where only the tropical Pacific SST anomalies are specified, the root-mean-square error of the height anomalies over the PNA region is significantly reduced in runs in which the SST anomalies in the Indian Ocean are prescribed in addition to those in the tropical Pacific. Among the ensemble members, both precipitation anomalies over the SWIO and the 500-hPa height over the PNA region show high potential predictability. The solutions from the linear model indicate that the Rossby wave packets involved in setting up the teleconnection between the SWIO and the PNA region have a propagation path that is quite different from the classical El Niño–PNA linkage. The results of idealized experiments indicate that the Northern Hemisphere extratropical response to Indian Ocean SST anomalies is significant and the effect of this response needs to be considered in understanding the PNA pattern during El Niño years. The results presented herein suggest that the tropical Indian Ocean plays an active role in climate variability and that accurate observation of SST there is of urgent need.

scholarly journals Relative role of El Niño and IOD forcing on the southern tropical Indian Ocean Rossby waves

2014 ◽  
Vol 119 (8) ◽  
pp. 5105-5122 ◽  
Author(s):  
Soumi Chakravorty ◽  
C. Gnanaseelan ◽  
J. S. Chowdary ◽  
Jing-Jia Luo
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Rossby Waves ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Tropical Indian Ocean ◽  
Relative Role

The Extreme El Niño Events Suppressing the Intraseasonal Variability in the Eastern Tropical Indian Ocean

2020 ◽  
Vol 50 (8) ◽  
pp. 2359-2372
Author(s):  
Gengxin Chen ◽  
Dongxiao Wang ◽  
Weiqing Han ◽  
Ming Feng ◽  
Fan Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Intraseasonal Variability ◽  
Tropical Indian Ocean ◽  
Ocean Dynamics ◽  
El Niño Events ◽  
Extreme El Niño ◽  
El Nino Events

AbstractIn the eastern tropical Indian Ocean, intraseasonal variability (ISV) affects the regional oceanography and marine ecosystems. Mooring and satellite observations documented two periods of unusually weak ISV during the past two decades, associated with suppressed baroclinic instability of the South Equatorial Current. Regression analysis and model simulations suggest that the exceptionally weak ISVs were caused primarily by the extreme El Niño events and modulated to a lesser extent by the Indian Ocean dipole. Additional observations confirm that the circulation balance in the Indo-Pacific Ocean was disrupted during the extreme El Niño events, impacting the Indonesian Throughflow Indian Ocean dynamics. This research provides substantial evidence for large-scale modes modulating ISV and the abnormal Indo-Pacific dynamical connection during extreme climate modes.

Indo-Pacific climate during the decaying phase of the 2015/16 El Niño: role of southeast tropical Indian Ocean warming

2017 ◽  
Vol 50 (11-12) ◽  
pp. 4707-4719 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zesheng Chen ◽  
Yan Du ◽  
Zhiping Wen ◽  
Renguang Wu ◽  
Chunzai Wang
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Tropical Indian Ocean ◽  
Ocean Warming ◽  
Indian Ocean Warming

Mechanisms for the Interannual Variability in the Tropical Indian Ocean. Part II: Regional Processes

2007 ◽  
Vol 20 (13) ◽  
pp. 2937-2960 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bohua Huang ◽  
J. Shukla
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Interannual Variability ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Tropical Indian Ocean ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Trade Wind ◽  
Tropical Ocean ◽  
The Indian Ocean ◽  
Sst Anomalies

Abstract To understand the mechanisms of the interannual variability in the tropical Indian Ocean, two long-term simulations are conducted using a coupled ocean–atmosphere GCM—one with active air–sea coupling over the global ocean and the other with regional coupling restricted within the Indian Ocean to the north of 30°S while the climatological monthly sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are prescribed in the uncoupled oceans to drive the atmospheric circulation. The major spatial patterns of the observed upper-ocean heat content and SST anomalies can be reproduced realistically by both simulations, suggesting that they are determined by intrinsic coupled processes within the Indian Ocean. In both simulations, the interannual variability in the Indian Ocean is dominated by a tropical mode and a subtropical mode. The tropical mode is characterized by a coupled feedback among thermocline depth, zonal SST gradient, and wind anomalies over the equatorial and southern tropical Indian Ocean, which is strongest in boreal fall and winter. The tropical mode simulated by the global coupled model reproduces the main observational features, including a seasonal connection to the model El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The ENSO influence, however, is weaker than that in a set of ensemble simulations described in Part I of this study, where the observed SST anomalies for 1950–98 are prescribed outside the Indian Ocean. Combining with the results from Part I of this study, it is concluded that ENSO can modulate the temporal variability of the tropical mode through atmospheric teleconnection. Its influence depends on the ENSO strength and duration. The stronger and more persistent El Niño events in the observations extend the life span of the anomalous events in the tropical Indian Ocean significantly. In the regional coupled simulation, the tropical mode is still active, but its dominant period is shifted away from that of ENSO. In the absence of ENSO forcing, the tropical mode is mainly stimulated by an anomalous atmospheric direct thermal cell forced by the fluctuations of the northwestern Pacific monsoon. The subtropical mode is characterized by an east–west dipole pattern of the SST anomalies in the southern subtropical Indian Ocean, which is strongest in austral fall. The SST anomalies are initially forced by surface heat flux anomalies caused by the anomalous southeast trade wind in the subtropical ocean during austral summer. The trade wind anomalies are in turn associated with extratropical variations from the southern annular mode. A thermodynamic air–sea feedback strengthens these subtropical anomalies quickly in austral fall and extends their remnants into the tropical ocean in austral winter. In the simulations, this subtropical variability is independent of ENSO.

Predictability of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jing-Jia Luo
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Tropical Indian Ocean ◽  
The West ◽  
The North ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Westerly Winds ◽  
Ocean Atmosphere ◽  
The Indian Ocean

This is an advance summary of a forthcoming article in the Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Climate Science. Please check back later for the full article. The tropical Indian Ocean is unique in several aspects. Unlike the Pacific and the Atlantic Oceans, the Indian Ocean is bounded to the north by a large landmass, the Eurasian continent. The large thermal heat contrast between the ocean in the south and the land in the north induces the world’s strongest monsoon systems in South and East Asia, in response to the seasonal migration of solar radiation. The strong and seasonally reversing surface winds generate large seasonal variations in ocean currents and basin-wide meridional heat transport across the equator. In contrast to the tropical Pacific and the Atlantic, where easterly trade winds prevail throughout the year, westerly winds (albeit with a relatively weak magnitude) blow along the equatorial Indian Ocean, particularly during the boreal spring and autumn seasons, generating the semi-annual Yoshida-Wyrtki eastward equatorial ocean currents. As a consequence of the lack of equatorial upwelling, the tropical Indian Ocean occupies the largest portion of the warm water pool (with Sea Surface Temperature [SST] being greater than 28 °C) on Earth. The massive warm water provides a huge potential energy available for deep convections that significantly affect the weather-climate over the globe. It is therefore of vital importance to discover and understand climate variabilities in the Indian Ocean and to further develop a capability to correctly predict the seasonal departures of the warm waters and their global teleconnections. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is the one of the recently discovered climate variables in the tropical Indian Ocean. During the development of the super El Niño in 1997, the climatological zonal SST gradient along the equator was much reduced (with strong cold SST anomalies in the east and warm anomalies in the west). The surface westerly winds switched to easterlies, and the ocean thermocline became shallow in the east and deep in the west. These features are reminiscent of what are observed during El Niño years in the Pacific, representing a typical coupled process between the ocean and the atmosphere. The IOD event in 1997 contributed significantly to floods in eastern Africa and severe droughts and bushfires in Indonesia and southeastern Australia. Since the discovery of the 1997 IOD event, extensive efforts have been made to lead the rapid progress in understanding the air-sea coupled climate variabilities in the Indian Ocean; and many approaches, including simple statistical models and comprehensive ocean-atmosphere coupled models, have been developed to simulate and predict the Indian Ocean climate. Essential to the discussion are the ocean-atmosphere dynamics underpinning the seasonal predictability of the IOD, critical factors that limit the IOD predictability (inter-comparison with El Niño-Southern Oscillation [ENSO]), observations and initialization approaches that provide realistic initial conditions for IOD predictions, models and approaches that have been developed to simulate and predict the IOD, the influence of global warming on the IOD predictability, impacts of IOD-ENSO interactions on the IOD predictability, and the current status and perspectives of the IOD prediction at seasonal to multi-annual timescales.

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