scholarly journals Multidecadal Indian Ocean Variability Linked to the Pacific and Implications for Preconditioning Indian Ocean Dipole Events

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (5) ◽  
pp. 1739-1751 ◽  
Author(s):  
Caroline C. Ummenhofer ◽  
Arne Biastoch ◽  
Claus W. Böning
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Indian Ocean Dipole ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Thermocline Depth ◽  
Ocean Temperature ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
The Indian Ocean

Abstract The Indian Ocean has sustained robust surface warming in recent decades, but the role of multidecadal variability remains unclear. Using ocean model hindcasts, characteristics of low-frequency Indian Ocean temperature variations are explored. Simulated upper-ocean temperature changes across the Indian Ocean in the hindcast are consistent with those recorded in observational products and ocean reanalyses. Indian Ocean temperatures exhibit strong warming trends since the 1950s limited to the surface and south of 30°S, while extensive subsurface cooling occurs over much of the tropical Indian Ocean. Previous work focused on diagnosing causes of these long-term trends in the Indian Ocean over the second half of the twentieth century. Instead, the temporal evolution of Indian Ocean subsurface heat content is shown here to reveal distinct multidecadal variations associated with the Pacific decadal oscillation, and the long-term trends are thus interpreted to result from aliasing of the low-frequency variability. Transmission of the multidecadal signal occurs via an oceanic pathway through the Indonesian Throughflow and is manifest across the Indian Ocean centered along 12°S as westward-propagating Rossby waves modulating thermocline and subsurface heat content variations. Resulting low-frequency changes in the eastern Indian Ocean thermocline depth are associated with decadal variations in the frequency of Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) events, with positive IOD events unusually common in the 1960s and 1990s with a relatively shallow thermocline. In contrast, the deeper thermocline depth in the 1970s and 1980s is associated with frequent negative IOD and rare positive IOD events. Changes in Pacific wind forcing in recent decades and associated rapid increases in Indian Ocean subsurface heat content can thus affect the basin’s leading mode of variability, with implications for regional climate and vulnerable societies in surrounding countries.

Variability of Sea Level and Upper-Ocean Heat Content in the Indian Ocean: Effects of Subtropical Indian Ocean Dipole and ENSO

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (21) ◽  
pp. 7227-7245 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lei Zhang ◽  
Weiqing Han ◽  
Yuanlong Li ◽  
Nicole S. Lovenduski
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Indian Ocean Dipole ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Ocean Heat Content ◽  
Upper Ocean ◽  
Thermocline Depth ◽  
Upper Ocean Heat Content ◽  
South Indian ◽  
The Indian Ocean

Abstract In this study, the Indian Ocean upper-ocean variability associated with the subtropical Indian Ocean dipole (SIOD) is investigated. We find that the SIOD is associated with a prominent southwest–northeast sea level anomaly (SLA) dipole over the western-central south Indian Ocean, with the north pole located in the Seychelles–Chagos thermocline ridge (SCTR) and the south pole at southeast of Madagascar, which is different from the distribution of the sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA). While the thermocline depth and upper-ocean heat content anomalies mirror SLAs, the air–sea CO2 flux anomalies associated with SIOD are controlled by SSTA. In the SCTR region, the westward propagation of oceanic Rossby waves generated by anomalous winds over the eastern tropical Indian Ocean is the major cause for the SLAs, with cyclonic wind causing negative SLAs during positive SIOD (pSIOD). Local wind forcing is the primary driver for the SLAs southeast of Madagascar, with anticyclonic winds causing positive SLAs. Since the SIOD is correlated with ENSO, the relative roles of the SIOD and ENSO are examined. We find that while ENSO can induce significant SLAs in the SCTR region through an atmospheric bridge, it has negligible impact on the SLA to the southeast of Madagascar. By contrast, the SIOD with ENSO influence removed is associated with an opposite SLA in the SCTR and southeast of Madagascar, corresponding to the SLA dipole identified above. A new subtropical dipole mode index (SDMI) is proposed, which is uncorrelated with ENSO and thus better represents the pure SIOD effect.

scholarly journals Sources of Tropical Subseasonal Skill in the CFSv2

2020 ◽  
Vol 148 (4) ◽  
pp. 1553-1565 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carl J. Schreck ◽  
Matthew A. Janiga ◽  
Stephen Baxter
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Equatorial Pacific ◽  
Convectively Coupled Equatorial Waves ◽  
Subseasonal Variability ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Fourier Filtering ◽  
The Indian Ocean ◽  
Rainfall Anomalies ◽  
Combined Data

Abstract This study applies Fourier filtering to a combination of rainfall estimates from TRMM and forecasts from the CFSv2. The combined data are filtered for low-frequency (LF, ≥120 days) variability, the MJO, and convectively coupled equatorial waves. The filtering provides insight into the sources of skill for the CFSv2. The LF filter, which encapsulates persistent anomalies generally corresponding with SSTs, has the largest contribution to forecast skill beyond week 2. Variability within the equatorial Pacific is dominated by its response to ENSO, such that both the unfiltered and the LF-filtered forecasts are skillful over the Pacific through the entire 45-day CFSv2 forecast. In fact, the LF forecasts in that region are more skillful than the unfiltered forecasts or any combination of the filters. Verifying filtered against unfiltered observations shows that subseasonal variability has very little opportunity to contribute to skill over the equatorial Pacific. Any subseasonal variability produced by the model is actually detracting from the skill there. The MJO primarily contributes to CFSv2 skill over the Indian Ocean, particularly during March–May and MJO phases 2–5. However, the model misses opportunities for the MJO to contribute to skill in other regions. Convectively coupled equatorial Rossby waves contribute to skill over the Indian Ocean during December–February and the Atlantic Ocean during September–November. Convectively coupled Kelvin waves show limited potential skill for predicting weekly averaged rainfall anomalies since they explain a relatively small percent of the observed variability.

scholarly journals Analysis of Drought-Sensitive Areas and Evolution Patterns through Statistical Simulations of the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 1302 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qing-Gang Gao ◽  
Vonevilay Sombutmounvong ◽  
Lihua Xiong ◽  
Joo-Heon Lee ◽  
Jong-Suk Kim
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Indian Ocean Dipole ◽  
Diagnostic Techniques ◽  
Eastern Coast ◽  
Indochina Peninsula ◽  
Indian Ocean Dipole Mode ◽  
Sensitive Areas ◽  
The Indian Ocean ◽  
Long Term Trend

In this study, we investigated extreme droughts in the Indochina peninsula and their relationship with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) mode. Areas most vulnerable to drought were analyzed via statistical simulations of the IOD based on historical observations. Results of the long-term trend analysis indicate that areas with increasing spring (March–May) rainfall are mainly distributed along the eastern coast (Vietnam) and the northwestern portions of the Indochina Peninsula (ICP), while Central and Northern Laos and Northern Cambodia have witnessed a reduction in spring rainfall over the past few decades. This trend is similar to that of extreme drought. During positive IOD years, the frequency of extreme droughts was reduced throughout Vietnam and in the southwestern parts of China, while increased drought was observed in Cambodia, Central Laos, and along the coastline adjacent to the Myanmar Sea. Results for negative IOD years were similar to changes observed for positive IOD years; however, the eastern and northern parts of the ICP experienced reduced droughts. In addition, the results of the statistical simulations proposed in this study successfully simulate drought-sensitive areas and evolution patterns of various IOD changes. The results of this study can help improve diagnostic techniques for extreme droughts in the ICP.

scholarly journals Two Independent Triggers for the Indian Ocean Dipole/Zonal Mode in a Coupled GCM

2005 ◽  
Vol 18 (17) ◽  
pp. 3428-3449 ◽  
Author(s):  
Albert S. Fischer ◽  
Pascal Terray ◽  
Eric Guilyardi ◽  
Silvio Gualdi ◽  
Pascale Delecluse
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Indian Ocean Dipole ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Tropical Indian Ocean ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Dynamical Response ◽  
Thermocline Depth ◽  
Second Phase ◽  
The Indian Ocean

Abstract The question of whether and how tropical Indian Ocean dipole or zonal mode (IOZM) interannual variability is independent of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability in the Pacific is addressed in a comparison of twin 200-yr runs of a coupled climate model. The first is a reference simulation, and the second has ENSO-scale variability suppressed with a constraint on the tropical Pacific wind stress. The IOZM can exist in the model without ENSO, and the composite evolution of the main anomalies in the Indian Ocean in the two simulations is virtually identical. Its growth depends on a positive feedback between anomalous equatorial easterly winds, upwelling equatorial and coastal Kelvin waves reducing the thermocline depth and sea surface temperature off the coast of Sumatra, and the atmospheric dynamical response to the subsequently reduced convection. Two IOZM triggers in the boreal spring are found. The first is an anomalous Hadley circulation over the eastern tropical Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent, with an early northward penetration of the Southern Hemisphere southeasterly trades. This situation grows out of cooler sea surface temperatures in the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean left behind by a reinforcement of the late austral summer winds. The second trigger is a consequence of a zonal shift in the center of convection associated with a developing El Niño, a Walker cell anomaly. The first trigger is the only one present in the constrained simulation and is similar to the evolution of anomalies in 1994, when the IOZM occurred in the absence of a Pacific El Niño state. The presence of these two triggers—the first independent of ENSO and the second phase locking the IOZM to El Niño—allows an understanding of both the existence of IOZM events when Pacific conditions are neutral and the significant correlation between the IOZM and El Niño.

scholarly journals INCREASE OF THE THERMOCLINE LAYER DUE TO TSUNAMI 2004 IN NANGRO ACEH DARUSSALAM WATERS

2011 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hadikusumah Hadikusumah ◽  
J. D. Lekalete
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Light Transmission ◽  
Mixed Layer Depth ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Annual Variations ◽  
The Indian Ocean ◽  
Local Water ◽  
Straits Of Malacca ◽  
Tsunami Energy

Research of physical oceanographic conditions post-tsunami was carried out and subsequently compared with the pre-tsunami 1998. Measurement of suhu, salinity and light transmission was conducted by CTDSBE911pls Model. Results showed that the flow in the Straits of Malacca flowed into the northwest and turned back into the Strait of Bengal and the next rotation into the flow of waters along the west coast of Nangro Aceh Darusalam (NAD). The mainstream off coast NAD in the Indian Ocean flowed to the northwest. Upper thermocline layer (17 m to 50 m) moved upward in 2005 and 2006 compared with previous data 1998 (90 m to 125 m). The moving upward thermocline in 2006 was allegedly due to the influence of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) positive. This requires further verification through long-term data collection to determine the monthly and annual variations, which will be compared with previous research. Light transmission (Tx) in 2005 from the surface to near the bottom (water column) was found lower than the year 1998 and 2006. This result was allegedly caused by resuspension from the seabed by energy turbulent produced by the tsunami. Heat content between 5 to 65 m depth in 2005 was higher than in 1998 and 2006. The higher heat content during the year of 2005 (post tsunami) was caused by friction due to the influence of tsunami energy, which predominantly found in the mixed layer depth. Type of water masses in the study area was a mixing between the local water mass, Malacca Strait Water (MSA), Bay of Bengal Water (BBW) under the influence of Arab Waters (AW), and the Indian Deep Water (IDW).Keywords: current, thermocline, heat content, watermass type, and Nangro Aceh Darusalam

scholarly journals Decadal Variability of the Indian and Pacific Walker Cells since the 1960s: Do They Covary on Decadal Time Scales?

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (21) ◽  
pp. 8447-8468 ◽  
Author(s):  
Weiqing Han ◽  
Gerald A. Meehl ◽  
Aixue Hu ◽  
Jian Zheng ◽  
Jessica Kenigson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Tropical Indian Ocean ◽  
Warm Pool ◽  
Past Century ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Decadal Variations ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
The Indian Ocean ◽  
The 1960S

Previous studies have investigated the centennial and multidecadal trends of the Pacific and Indian Ocean Walker cells (WCs) during the past century, but have obtained no consensus owing to data uncertainties and weak signals of the long-term trends. This paper focuses on decadal variability (periods of one to few decades) by first documenting the variability of the WCs and warm-pool convection, and their covariability since the 1960s, using in situ and satellite observations and reanalysis products. The causes for the variability and covariability are then explored using a Bayesian dynamic linear model, which can extract nonstationary effects of climate modes. The warm-pool convection exhibits apparent decadal variability, generally covarying with the Indian and Pacific Ocean WCs during winter (November–April) with enhanced convection corresponding to intensified WCs, and the Indian–Pacific WCs covary. During summer (May–October), the warm-pool convection still highly covaries with the Pacific WC but does not covary with the Indian Ocean WC, and the Indian–Pacific WCs are uncorrelated. The wintertime coherent variability results from the vital influence of ENSO decadal variation, which reduces warm-pool convection and weakens the WCs during El Niño–like conditions. During summer, while ENSO decadal variability still dominates the Pacific WC, decadal variations of ENSO, the Indian Ocean dipole, Indian summer monsoon convection, and tropical Indian Ocean SST have comparable effects on the Indian Ocean WC overall, with monsoon convection having the largest effect since the 1990s. The complex causes for the Indian Ocean WC during summer result in its poor covariability with the Pacific WC and warm-pool convection.

The Indian Ocean Dipole: A Monopole in SST

2014 ◽  
Vol 28 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-19 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yongjing Zhao ◽  
Sumant Nigam
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Indian Ocean Dipole ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Tropical Indian Ocean ◽  
Spatiotemporal Analysis ◽  
Upper Ocean Heat Content ◽  
Sst Variability ◽  
Dipole Structure ◽  
The Indian Ocean

Abstract The claim for a zonal-dipole structure in interannual variations of the tropical Indian Ocean (IO) SSTs—the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD)—is reexamined after accounting for El Niño–Southern Oscillation’s (ENSO) influence. The authors seek an a priori accounting of ENSO’s seasonally stratified influence on IO SSTs and evaluate the basis of the related dipole mode index, instead of seeking a posteriori adjustments to this index, as common. Scant observational evidence is found for zonal-dipole SST variations after removal of ENSO’s influence from IO SSTs: The IOD poles are essentially uncorrelated in the ENSO-filtered SSTs in both recent (1958–98) and century-long (1900–2007) periods, leading to the breakdown of zonal-dipole structure in surface temperature variability; this finding does not depend on the subtleties in estimation of ENSO’s influence. Deconstruction of the fall 1994 and 1997 SST anomalies led to their reclassification, with a weak IOD in 1994 and none in 1997. Regressions of the eastern IOD pole on upper-ocean heat content, however, do exhibit a zonal-dipole structure but with the western pole in the central-equatorial IO, suggesting that internally generated basin variability can have zonal-dipole structure at the subsurface. The IO SST variability was analyzed using the extended-EOF technique, after removing the influence of Pacific SSTs; the technique targets spatial and temporal recurrence and extracts modes (rather than patterns) of variability. This spatiotemporal analysis also does not support the existence of zonal-dipole variability at the surface. However, the analysis did yield a dipole-like structure in the meridional direction in boreal fall/winter, when it resembles the subtropical IOD pattern (but not the evolution time scale).

scholarly journals Interannual to Decadal Variability of Tropical Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperature: Pacific Influence versus Local Internal Variability

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-50
Author(s):  
Lei Zhang ◽  
Gang Wang ◽  
Matthew Newman ◽  
Weiqing Han
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Indian Ocean Dipole ◽  
Tropical Indian Ocean ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
External Influence ◽  
Sst Variability ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
The Indian Ocean ◽  
The Tropical Pacific

AbstractThe Indian Ocean has received increasing attention for its large impacts on regional and global climate. However, sea surface temperature (SST) variability arising from Indian Ocean internal processes has not been well understood particularly on decadal and longer timescales, and the external influence from the Tropical Pacific has not been quantified. This paper analyzes the interannual-to-decadal SST variability in the Tropical Indian Ocean in observations and explores the external influence from the Pacific versus internal processes within the Indian Ocean using a Linear Inverse Model (LIM). Coupling between Indian Ocean and tropical Pacific SST anomalies (SSTAs) is assessed both within the LIM dynamical operator and the unpredictable stochastic noise that forces the system. Results show that the observed Indian Ocean Basin (IOB)-wide SSTA pattern is largely a response to the Pacific ENSO forcing, although it in turn has a damping effect on ENSO especially on annual and decadal timescales. On the other hand, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is an Indian Ocean internal mode that can actively affect ENSO; ENSO also has a returning effect on the IOD, which is rather weak on decadal timescale. The third mode is partly associated with the Subtropical Indian Ocean Dipole (SIOD), and it is primarily generated by Indian Ocean internal processes, although a small component of it is coupled with ENSO. Overall, the amplitude of Indian Ocean internally generated SST variability is comparable to that forced by ENSO, and the Indian Ocean tends to actively influence the tropical Pacific. These results suggest that the Indian-Pacific Ocean interaction is a two-way process.

scholarly journals INCREASE OF THE THERMOCLINE LAYER DUE TO TSUNAMI 2004 IN NANGRO ACEH DARUSSALAM WATERS

2011 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hadikusumah Hadikusumah ◽  
J. D. Lekalete
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Light Transmission ◽  
Mixed Layer Depth ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Annual Variations ◽  
The Indian Ocean ◽  
Local Water ◽  
Straits Of Malacca ◽  
Tsunami Energy

<p>Research of physical oceanographic conditions post-tsunami was carried out and subsequently compared with the pre-tsunami 1998. Measurement of suhu, salinity and light transmission was conducted by CTDSBE911pls Model. Results showed that the flow in the Straits of Malacca flowed into the northwest and turned back into the Strait of Bengal and the next rotation into the flow of waters along the west coast of Nangro Aceh Darusalam (NAD). The mainstream off coast NAD in the Indian Ocean flowed to the northwest. Upper thermocline layer (17 m to 50 m) moved upward in 2005 and 2006 compared with previous data 1998 (90 m to 125 m). The moving upward thermocline in 2006 was allegedly due to the influence of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) positive. This requires further verification through long-term data collection to determine the monthly and annual variations, which will be compared with previous research. Light transmission (Tx) in 2005 from the surface to near the bottom (water column) was found lower than the year 1998 and 2006. This result was allegedly caused by resuspension from the seabed by energy turbulent produced by the tsunami. Heat content between 5 to 65 m depth in 2005 was higher than in 1998 and 2006. The higher heat content during the year of 2005 (post tsunami) was caused by friction due to the influence of tsunami energy, which predominantly found in the mixed layer depth. Type of water masses in the study area was a mixing between the local water mass, Malacca Strait Water (MSA), Bay of Bengal Water (BBW) under the influence of Arab Waters (AW), and the Indian Deep Water (IDW).</p><p>Keywords: current, thermocline, heat content, watermass type, and Nangro Aceh Darusalam</p>

Seasonal climate summary for the southern hemisphere (spring 2016): strong negative Indian Ocean Dipole ends, bringing second wettest September to Australia

2019 ◽  
Vol 69 (1) ◽  
pp. 273
Author(s):  
Blair Trewin ◽  
Catherine Ganter
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Indian Ocean Dipole ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Antarctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
The Indian Ocean ◽  
Low Levels ◽  
Equatorial Climate

This summary looks at the southern hemisphere and equatorial climate patterns for spring 2016, with particular attention given to the Australasian and equatorial regions of the Pacific and Indian Ocean basins. Spring 2016 was marked by the later part of a strong negative phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole, alongside cool neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation conditions. September was exceptionally wet over much of Australia, contributing to a wet spring with near-average temperatures. The spring was one of the warmest on record over the southern hemisphere as a whole, with Antarctic Sea ice extent dropping to record low levels for the season.

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