scholarly journals The source of uncertainty in projecting the anomalous western North Pacific anticyclone during El Niño–decaying summers

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-49
Author(s):  
Mingna Wu ◽  
Tianjun Zhou ◽  
Xiaolong Chen
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
El Niño ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Decomposition Method ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
El Nino ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Amplitude Change

AbstractThe western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone (WNPAC) is a key bridge that links El Niño and East Asian climate variability. Future projections of ENSO-related WNPAC changes under global warming are highly uncertain across climate models. Based on a 40-member ensemble from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) project, we investigate the effects of internal variability on the El Niño-related WNPAC projection. Here, we first develop a decomposition method to separate the contributions of El Niño amplitude change and non-amplitude change from the leading uncertainty in the El Niño-related WNPAC projection. Based on the decomposition, approximately 23% of the uncertainty in the El Niño-related WNPAC projection is attributed to the El Niño amplitude change, while the remaining 77% is from the non-amplitude change, which is mainly related to the change in the El Niño decaying pace. A larger (smaller) El Niño amplitude can enhance (weaken) the WNPAC through a stronger (weaker) tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) capacitor effect. For non-amplitude change, a faster (slower) El Niño decaying pace can also enhance (weaken) the WNPAC through descending Rossby waves in response to cold sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) over the tropical central-eastern Pacific. The decomposition method can be generalized to investigate the sources of uncertainty related to El Niño properties in climate projections and to help improve the understanding of changes in the interannual variability of East Asian-western Pacific climate under global warming.

scholarly journals Intensification of the Western North Pacific Anticyclone Response to the Short Decaying El Niño Event due to Greenhouse Warming

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (10) ◽  
pp. 3607-3627 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wei Chen ◽  
June-Yi Lee ◽  
Kyung-Ja Ha ◽  
Kyung-Sook Yun ◽  
Riyu Lu
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
El Niño ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Precipitation Anomaly ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Central Pacific

Abstract Two types of El Niño evolution have been identified in terms of the lengths of their decaying phases: the first type is a short decaying El Niño that terminates in the following summer after the mature phase, and the second type is a long decaying one that persists until the subsequent winter. The responses of the western North Pacific anticyclone (WNPAC) anomaly to the two types of evolution are remarkably different. Using experiments from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), this study investigates how well climate models reproduce the two types of El Niño evolution and their impacts on the WNPAC in the historical period (1950–2005) and how they will change in the future under anthropogenic global warming. To reduce uncertainty in future projection, the nine best models are selected based on their performance in simulating El Niño evolution. In the historical run, the nine best models’ multimodel ensemble (B9MME) well reproduces the enhanced (weakened) WNPAC that is associated with the short (long) decaying El Niño. The comparison between results of the historical run for 1950–2005 and the representative concentration pathway 4.5 run for 2050–99 reveals that individual models and the B9MME tend to project no significant changes in the two types of El Niño evolution for the latter half of the twenty-first century. However, the WNPAC response to the short decaying El Niño is considerably intensified, being associated with the enhanced negative precipitation anomaly response over the equatorial central Pacific. This enhancement is attributable to the robust increase in mean and interannual variability of precipitation over the equatorial central Pacific under global warming.

scholarly journals Global Warming and Western North Pacific Typhoon Activity from an Observational Perspective

2004 ◽  
Vol 17 (23) ◽  
pp. 4590-4602 ◽  
Author(s):  
Johnny C. L. Chan ◽  
Kin Sik Liu
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
El Niño ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Interannual Variations ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Climate Model Simulations

Abstract Based on results from climate model simulations, many researchers have suggested that because of global warming, the sea surface temperature (SST) will likely increase, which will then lead to an increase in the intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs). This paper reports results of a study of the relationship between SST and observed typhoon activity (which is used as a proxy for the intensity of TCs averaged over a season) over the western North Pacific (WNP) for the past 40 yr. The average typhoon activity over a season is found to have no significant relationship with SST in the WNP but increases when the SST over the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean is above normal. The mean annual typhoon activity is generally higher (lower) during an El Niño (La Niña) year. Such interannual variations of typhoon activity appear to be largely constrained by the large-scale atmospheric factors that are closely related to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. These large-scale dynamic and thermodynamic factors include low-level relative vorticity, vertical wind shear, and moist static energy. Such results are shown to be physically consistent with one another and with those from previous studies on the interannual variations of TC activity. The results emphasize the danger of drawing conclusions about future TC intensity based on current climate model simulations that are not designed to make such predictions.

scholarly journals Attribution of Projected Future Changes in Tropical Cyclone Passage Frequency over the Western North Pacific

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (12) ◽  
pp. 4096-4111 ◽  
Author(s):  
Satoru Yokoi ◽  
Yukari N. Takayabu ◽  
Hiroyuki Murakami
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
El Niño ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
El Nino ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Translation Vector ◽  
Attribution Analysis

Abstract This paper performs an attribution analysis of future changes in the frequency of tropical cyclone (TC) passages over the western North Pacific basin projected by seven general circulation models. The models project increases in the passage frequency over the tropical central North Pacific and decreases in regions to the west and northwest, including East Asian countries. The attribution analysis reveals that while changes of the basinwide TC count would decrease the frequency of passages throughout the basin, the gross horizontal contrast in the passage frequency changes is caused by a projected eastward shift of main TC development regions, probably caused by El Niño–like sea surface temperature changes. The change in the frequency of passages is also caused by changes of TC translation vectors and preferable tracks. In particular, the translation vector would rotate clockwise to point in a more easterly direction over oceanic regions south of Japan, decreasing the passage frequency over the Korean peninsula and western Japan while increasing it over eastern Japan. This change in translation direction may be caused by the southward shift of the subtropical jet axis and resultant intensification of westerly steering flows. The El Niño–like change and westerly steering flow change are consistent not only among the seven models but also among a number of other climate models, which suggests the reliability of these results from the viewpoint of intermodel agreement.

Response of western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone in the summer of decaying El Niño to global warming: Diverse projections based on CMIP6 and CMIP5 models

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-41
Author(s):  
Chao He ◽  
Zhenyuan Cui ◽  
Chunzai Wang
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
El Niño ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Tropical Indian Ocean ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Kelvin Wave ◽  
Anomalous Anticyclone

AbstractThe anomalous anticyclone over the western North Pacific (WNPAC) is a key atmospheric bridge through which El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects East Asian climate. In this study, the response of the anomalous WNPAC to global warming under the high-emission scenario is investigated based on 40 models from CMIP6 and 30 models from CMIP5. Despite low inter-model consensus, the multi-model median (MMM) of CMIP6 models projects an enhanced anomalous WNPAC but the MMM of CMIP5 models projects a weakened anomalous WNPAC, both of which reach about 0.5 standard deviation of the decadal internal variability derived from the pre-industrial control experiment. As consistently projected by CMIP6 and CMIP5 models, a same magnitude of sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) over the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) stimulates a weaker anomalous WNPAC under a warmer climate, and this mechanism is responsible for the weakened anomalous WNPAC based on the CMIP5-MMM. However, the above mechanism is overwhelmed by another mechanism related to the changes in tropical SSTA based on the CMIP6-MMM. As a result of the enhanced warm SSTA over the TIO and the eastward shift of the warm SSTA over the equatorial Pacific during the decaying El Niño, the warm Kelvin wave emanating from the TIO is enhanced along with the stronger zonal SSTA gradient based on the CMIP6-MMM, enhancing the anomalous WNPAC. The diverse changes in the zonal SSTA gradient between the TIO and the equatorial western Pacific also explain the inter-model diversity of the changes in anomalous WNPAC.

scholarly journals Breakdown of the Summertime Meridional Teleconnection Pattern over the Western North Pacific and East Asia since the Early 2000s

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (19) ◽  
pp. 8487-8505
Author(s):  
Xinyu Li ◽  
Riyu Lu
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
El Niño ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
El Nino ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Tropical Indian Ocean ◽  
Teleconnection Pattern ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
Westerly Jet

AbstractThe meridional teleconnection over the western North Pacific and East Asia (WNP–EA) plays a predominant role in affecting the interannual variability of East Asian climate in summer. This study identified a breakdown of the meridional teleconnection since the early 2000s. Before the early 2000s, there are close tropical–extratropical relationships in light of both circulation and rainfall anomalies. For instance, the westward extension of the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) is closely associated with the southward shift of the East Asian westerly jet (EAJ), and more rainfall in the tropical WNP closely corresponds to less rainfall in the subtropical WNP–EA. However, after the early 2000s, the tropical–extratropical relationships are absent. Particularly, the tropical WNP precipitation anomalies can induce WNPSH anomalies, but the WNPSH anomalies cannot induce subtropical precipitation in the latter period, due to the absence of EAJ-related extratropical circulation anomalies. Further results indicate that in the latter period, the westward extension of the WNPSH is associated with the decay of central Pacific-like El Niño, and simultaneous summer sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the central eastern Pacific favor the northward shift of the EAJ, resulting in the disruption of the WNPSH–EAJ relationship. This evolution of tropical SSTs is sharply different from the decay of canonical El Niño and simultaneous summer tropical Indian Ocean warming, which favor the WNPSH–EAJ correspondence in the former period.

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