ENSO and the Spatial Extent of Interannual Precipitation Extremes in Tropical Land Areas

2005 ◽  
Vol 18 (23) ◽  
pp. 5095-5109 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bradfield Lyon ◽  
Anthony G. Barnston
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Precipitation Extremes ◽  
Spatial Extent ◽  
Human Populations ◽  
Enso Events ◽  
Dry Conditions ◽  
Negative Impacts

Abstract The extreme phases of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are known to dominate the interannual variability of tropical rainfall. However, the relationship between ENSO and the spatial extent of drought and excessively wet conditions is an important characteristic of the tropical climate that has received relatively less attention from researchers. Here, a standardized precipitation index is computed from monthly rainfall analyses and the temporal variability of the spatial extent of such extremes, for various levels of severity, is examined from a Tropics-wide perspective (land areas only, 30°S–30°N). Maxima in the spatial extent of both precipitation extremes are compared across multiple ENSO events that occurred during the period 1950–2003. The focus on tropical land areas is motivated by the numerous, often negative, impacts of ENSO-related precipitation variability on human populations. Results show that major peaks in the spatial extent of drought and excessively wet conditions are generally associated with extreme phases of ENSO. A remarkably robust linear relationship is documented between the spatial extent of drought in the Tropics and El Niño strength (based on Niño-3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies), with a comparatively weaker relationship for La Niña and excessive wetness. Both conditions are found to increase by about a factor of 2 between strong and weak ENSO events, and in several locations they are shown to be more likely during ENSO events than at all other times, especially for severe categories. Relatively stronger El Niño events during recent decades are associated with increased drought extent in tropical land areas with increasing surface temperatures likely acting to exacerbate these dry conditions.

scholarly journals The Response of Tropical Atmospheric Energy Budgets to ENSO*

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (13) ◽  
pp. 4710-4724 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Mayer ◽  
Kevin E. Trenberth ◽  
Leopold Haimberger ◽  
John T. Fasullo
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Warm Pool ◽  
Smooth Transition ◽  
Energy Budgets ◽  
Enso Events ◽  
El Niño Modoki ◽  
Static Energy ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract The variability of zonally resolved tropical energy budgets in association with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is investigated. The most recent global atmospheric reanalyses from 1979 to 2011 are employed with removal of apparent discontinuities to obtain best possible temporal homogeneity. The growing length of record allows a more robust analysis of characteristic patterns of variability with cross-correlation, composite, and EOF methods. A quadrupole anomaly pattern is found in the vertically integrated energy divergence associated with ENSO, with centers over the Indian Ocean, the Indo-Pacific warm pool, the eastern equatorial Pacific, and the Atlantic. The smooth transition, particularly of the main maxima of latent and dry static energy divergence, from the western to the eastern Pacific is found to require at least two EOFs to be adequately described. The canonical El Niño pattern (EOF-1) and a transition pattern (EOF-2; referred to as El Niño Modoki by some authors) form remarkably coherent ENSO-related anomaly structures of the tropical energy budget not only over the Pacific but throughout the tropics. As latent and dry static energy divergences show strong mutual cancellation, variability of total energy divergence is smaller and more tightly coupled to local sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and is mainly related to the ocean heat discharge and recharge during ENSO peak phases. The complexity of the structures throughout the tropics and their evolution during ENSO events along with their interactions with the annual cycle have often not been adequately accounted for; in particular, the El Niño Modoki mode is but part of the overall evolutionary patterns.

scholarly journals ENSO flavors in a tree-ring δ<sup>18</sup>O record of <i>Tectona grandis</i> from Indonesia

2015 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. 1325-1333 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. Schollaen ◽  
C. Karamperidou ◽  
P. Krusic ◽  
E. Cook ◽  
G. Helle
Keyword(s):  
Tree Ring ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
Central Pacific El Niño ◽  
Enso Events ◽  
Proxy Records ◽  
El Niño Events ◽  
El Nino Events

Abstract. Indonesia's climate is dominated by the equatorial monsoon system, and has been linked to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events that often result in extensive droughts and floods over the Indonesian archipelago. In this study we investigate ENSO-related signals in a tree-ring δ18O record (1900–2007) of Javanese teak. Our results reveal a clear influence of Warm Pool (central Pacific) El Niño events on Javanese tree-ring δ18O, and no clear signal of Cold Tongue (eastern Pacific) El Niño events. These results are consistent with the distinct impacts of the two ENSO flavors on Javanese precipitation, and illustrate the importance of considering ENSO flavors when interpreting palaeoclimate proxy records in the tropics, as well as the potential of palaeoclimate proxy records from appropriately selected tropical regions for reconstructing past variability of. ENSO flavors.

Long term population changes of fur seals Arctocephalus gazella and Arctocephalus tropicalis on subantarctic (Crozet) and subtropical (St. Paul and Amsterdam) islands and their possible relationship to El Niño Southern Oscillation

1994 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 473-478 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Guinet ◽  
P. Jouventin ◽  
J-Y. Georges
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
El Niño Southern Oscillation ◽  
El Nino Southern Oscillation ◽  
Enso Events ◽  
Fur Seals ◽  
Fur Seal ◽  
Arctocephalus Tropicalis

The population trend over the last decade for subantarctic fur seals (Arctocephalus tropicalis) on Amsterdam and St. Paul islands and on Possession Island (Crozet Archipelago) and Antarctic fur seals (A. gazella) on Possession Island are analysed. At Amsterdam Island, based on pup counts, the subantarctic fur seal population appears to have stabilized after a period of rapid growth. At Possession Island subantarctic fur seal and Antarctic fur seal, with respective annual growth rates of 19.2 and 17.4%, are reaching the maximum growth rate for the genus Arctocephalus. Annual pup censuses at Possession Island since 1978 indicate important variations from year to year with pup production for A. gazella significantly lower the year after an El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event, but with no such relationship for A. tropicalis. Several other long term demographic studies of seabirds and marine mammals at different breeding locations in the Southern Ocean indicate that the breeding success of several of these predators appears to be widely affected in years which appear to be related to the ENSO events. To clarify this, it is necessary to analyse in more detail the demographic data obtained for the different subantarctic and Antarctic locations where long term monitoring programmes are conducted.

scholarly journals Extended ENSO Predictions Using a Fully Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Model

2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 84-93 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jing-Jia Luo ◽  
Sebastien Masson ◽  
Swadhin K. Behera ◽  
Toshio Yamagata
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Enso Events ◽  
The Past ◽  
Ocean Atmosphere ◽  
First Time ◽  
Fully Coupled

Abstract Using a fully coupled global ocean–atmosphere general circulation model assimilating only sea surface temperature, the authors found for the first time that several El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events over the past two decades can be predicted at lead times of up to 2 yr. The El Niño condition in the 1997/98 winter can be predicted to some extent up to about a 1½-yr lead but with a weak intensity and large phase delay in the prediction of the onset of this exceptionally strong event. This is attributed to the influence of active and intensive stochastic westerly wind bursts during late 1996 to mid-1997, which are generally unpredictable at seasonal time scales. The cold signals in the 1984/85 and 1999/2000 winters during the peak phases of the past two long-lasting La Niña events are predicted well up to a 2-yr lead. Amazingly, the mild El Niño–like event of 2002/03 is also predicted well up to a 2-yr lead, suggesting a link between the prolonged El Niño and the tropical Pacific decadal variability. Seasonal climate anomalies over vast parts of the globe during specific ENSO years are also realistically predicted up to a 2-yr lead for the first time.

Seasonal climate summary for the southern hemisphere (autumn 2017): the Great Barrier Reef experiences coral bleaching during El Niño–Southern Oscillation neutral conditions

2019 ◽  
Vol 69 (1) ◽  
pp. 310
Author(s):  
Grant A. Smith
Keyword(s):  
Western Australia ◽  
Coral Bleaching ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Antarctic Sea Ice ◽  
Dry Conditions ◽  
The Mean

Austral autumn 2017 was classified as neutral in terms of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), although tropical rainfall and sub-surface Pacific Ocean temperature anomalies were indicative of a weak La Niña. Despite this, autumn 2017 was anomalously warm formost of Australia, consistent with the warming trend that has been observed for the last several decades due to global warming. The mean temperatures for Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria, Tasmania and South Australiawere all amongst the top 10. The mean maximum temperature for all of Australia was seventh warmest on record, and amongst the top 10 for all states but Western Australia, with a region of warmest maximum temperature on record in western Queensland. The mean minimum temperature was also above average nationally, and amongst top 10 for Queensland, Victoria and Tasmania. In terms of rainfall, there were very mixed results, with wetter than average for the east coast, western Victoria and parts of Western Australia, and drier than average for western Tasmania, western Queensland, the southeastern portion of the Northern Territory and the far western portion of Western Australia. Dry conditions in Tasmania and southwest Western Australia were likely due to a positive Southern Annular Mode, and the broader west coast and central dry conditions were likely due to cooler eastern Indian Ocean sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) that limited the supply of moisture available to the atmosphere across the country. Other significant events during autumn 2017 were the coral bleaching in the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), cyclone Debbie andmuch lower than average Antarctic sea-ice extent. Coral bleaching in the GBR is usually associated on broad scales with strong El Niño events but is becoming more common in ENSO neutral years due to global warming. The southern GBR was saved from warm SST anomalies by severe tropical cyclone Debbie which caused ocean cooling in late March and flooding in Queensland and New SouthWales. The Antarctic sea-ice extent was second lowest on record for autumn, with the March extent being lowest on record.

The North Pacific Pacemaker Effect on Historical ENSO and Its Mechanisms

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (22) ◽  
pp. 7643-7661 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dillon J. Amaya ◽  
Yu Kosaka ◽  
Wenyu Zhou ◽  
Yu Zhang ◽  
Shang-Ping Xie ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Enso Events ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Pacific

Abstract Studies have indicated that North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) variability can significantly modulate El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), but there has been little effort to put extratropical–tropical interactions into the context of historical events. To quantify the role of the North Pacific in pacing the timing and magnitude of observed ENSO, we use a fully coupled climate model to produce an ensemble of North Pacific Ocean–Global Atmosphere (nPOGA) SST pacemaker simulations. In nPOGA, SST anomalies are restored back to observations in the North Pacific (&gt;15°N) but are free to evolve throughout the rest of the globe. We find that the North Pacific SST has significantly influenced observed ENSO variability, accounting for approximately 15% of the total variance in boreal fall and winter. The connection between the North and tropical Pacific arises from two physical pathways: 1) a wind–evaporation–SST (WES) propagating mechanism, and 2) a Gill-like atmospheric response associated with anomalous deep convection in boreal summer and fall, which we refer to as the summer deep convection (SDC) response. The SDC response accounts for 25% of the observed zonal wind variability around the equatorial date line. On an event-by-event basis, nPOGA most closely reproduces the 2014/15 and the 2015/16 El Niños. In particular, we show that the 2015 Pacific meridional mode event increased wind forcing along the equator by 20%, potentially contributing to the extreme nature of the 2015/16 El Niño. Our results illustrate the significant role of extratropical noise in pacing the initiation and magnitude of ENSO events and may improve the predictability of ENSO on seasonal time scales.

scholarly journals Presence of Paragonimus species within secondary crustacean hosts in Bogotá, Colombia

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (2) ◽  
pp. 150-157
Author(s):  
Gillian Phillips ◽  
David M Hudson ◽  
Jenny J Chaparro-Gutiérrez
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Total Population ◽  
Procambarus Clarkii ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Human Populations ◽  
Infection Prevalence ◽  
Invasive Crayfish ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Trematode Parasites

Background: Paragonimus spp. are trematode parasites that infect human populations worldwide. It is believed that infection rates within Asia reach five to ten percent of the total population. Three of the largest areas of possible infection are Asia, Central and South America as well as Africa, where the total population at risk is estimated to be 293 million people. Humans are infected via ingestion of raw or undercooked decapod crustaceans. Objective: To identify the presence of Paragonimus spp. in crabs from Bogotá, Colombia. Methods: The native crab Neostrengeria macropa and the aquatic invasive crayfish Procambarus clarkii in Bogotá, Colombia, were collected from local markets, pet stores and waterways and dissected to assess the presence of Paragonimus spp.  Results: The native crab species, N. macropa (n=29) had an infection prevalence of 17.2%, while the invasive crayfish species, P. clarkii (n=22), had a prevalence of 36.4% combined from both field captured animals and purchased samples. Conclusion: Although the estimated prevalence is lower compared to previous studies in other cities of Colombia, Paragonimus represent a risk to human health. Several environmental factors may contribute to the difference in prevalence including collecting season, rainfall, temperature, altitude and the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Keywords: crabs, invasive species, Neostrengeria macropa, Procambarus clarkii, trematode. ResumenAntecedentes: Los Paragonimus spp. constituyen un grupo de parásitos tremátodos que infectan a humanos en todo el mundo. Se considera que entre 5 y 10% de la población humana de Asia está infectada. Las áreas con mayor posibilidad de infección son Asia, Centro y Sur América, así como África. Se estima que 293 millones de personas están en riesgo de infección. Los humanos se pueden infectar al consumir crustáceos decápodos crudos. Objetivo: Identificar la presencia de Paragonimus spp. en crustáceos en Bogotá, Colombia. Métodos: Una muestra de cangrejos nativos Neostrengeria macropa y de decápodos invasores Procambarus clarkii fue colectada tanto en mercados locales de Bogotá, como en tiendas de mascotas, ríos, y quebradas. Posteriromente fueron diseccionados para detectar la presencia de Paragonimus spp. Resultados: La prevalencia de la infección en N. macropa (n=29) fue de 17,2%, y en la especie invasora, P. clarkii (n=22), fue de 36,4% (porcentaje combinado de los animales colectados en el campo y los comprados en tiendas). Conclusión: Aunque la prevalencia en este estudio fue más baja que la de otras investigaciones relacionadas, se considera que existe riesgo para la salud humana. Es probable que algunos factores medio ambientales hayan contribuido a la diferencia, incluyendo: temporada de colecta, nivel de lluvias, temperatura, altura, y el fenómeno El Niño. Palabras claves: cangrejos, especie invasora, Neostrengeria macropa, Procambarus clarkii, tremátodo. ResumoAntecedentes: Paragonimus spp. são trematódeos parasitas que infectam populações humanas ao redor do mundo. Acredita-se que as taxas de infecção na Ásia atingem de 5 a 10% da população. As três maiores áreas de infecção se localizam na Ásia, Américas do Sul e Central e África, onde a população total em risco é estimada em 293 milhões de pessoas. Os humanos são infectados pela ingestão de crustáceos decápodes crus ou mal cozidos. Objetivo: Identificar a presença de Paragonimus spp. em Bogotá, Colômbia. Métodos: Indivíduos de caranguejo nativo Neostrengeria macropa e lagostim aquático invasivo Procambarus clarkii  foram coletados em mercados locais, lojas de animais de estimação e cursos de água em Bogotá (Colômbia) e posteriormente dissecados para verificação da presença de Paragonimus spp. Resultados: A espécie de caranguejo nativa N. macropa (n=29) apresentou prevalência de infecção de 17,2%, enquanto a espécie de lagostim invasivo, P. clarkii (n=22), apresentou prevalência de 36,4%, quando combinados os animais capturados em campo e os animais comprados. Conclusão: Embora a prevalência estimada neste estudo foi menor do que a de pesquisas anteriores realizadas em outras cidades da Colômbia, existe um risco para a saúde humana. Há inúmeros fatores ambientais que podem contribuir para a diferença de prevalência, dentre eles: a estação em que a coleta foi realizada, pouca precipitação, temperatura, altitude e a Oscilação Sul-El Niño.Palabras-chave: caranguejos, espécies invasivas, Neostrengeria macropa, Procambarus clarkii, trematódeos.

Climate variability of the Great Barrier Reef in relation to the tropical Pacific and El Niño-Southern Oscillation

2012 ◽  
Vol 63 (1) ◽  
pp. 34 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ana Redondo-Rodriguez ◽  
Scarla J. Weeks ◽  
Ray Berkelmans ◽  
Ove Hoegh-Guldberg ◽  
Janice M. Lough
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Great Barrier Reef ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
El Nino Southern Oscillation ◽  
Barrier Reef ◽  
Enso Events

Understanding the nature and causes of recent climate variability on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), Australia, is fundamental to assessing the impacts of future climate change on this complex ecosystem. New analytical tools, improved data quality and resolution, longer time-series and new variables provide an opportunity to re-assess existing paradigms. Here, we examined sea surface temperature (SST), sea level pressure, surface winds, sea surface height and ocean currents for the period from 1948 to 2009. We focussed on the relationship between GBR surface climate and the wider tropical Pacific, and the influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. Also, for the first time, we investigated the impact of the El Niño/La Niña Modoki phenomenon. Although neither type of ENSO event is a primary driver of inter-annual climate variability on the GBR, their influence is conspicuous. Classical ENSO events have a strong signature in the atmospheric circulation in the northern GBR but no significant relationship with SSTs and the opposite applies for the southern GBR. Conversely, El Niño/La Niña Modoki is significantly related to summer SSTs on the northern GBR, but not for the southern GBR. This study enhances our understanding of tropical Pacific and GBR climate drivers and will improve future predictions of change in climate variables that are likely to impact on the complex GBR ecosystem.

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