scholarly journals Potential Vorticity Diagnosis of the Factors Affecting the Track of Typhoon Sinlaku (2008) and the Impact from Dropwindsonde Data during T-PARC

2012 ◽  
Vol 140 (8) ◽  
pp. 2670-2688 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chun-Chieh Wu ◽  
Shin-Gan Chen ◽  
Chung-Chuan Yang ◽  
Po-Hsiung Lin ◽  
Sim D. Aberson
Keyword(s):  
Potential Vorticity ◽  
System Research ◽  
Key Factors ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Steering Flow ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Environmental Prediction ◽  
The Impact

Abstract In 2008, abundant dropwindsonde data were collected during both reconnaissance and surveillance flights in and around tropical cyclones (TCs) in the western North Pacific basin under the framework of The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX)–Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC). The National Centers for Environmental Prediction Global Forecast System (GFS) showed significant track improvements for Typhoon Sinlaku (2008) after the assimilation of dropwindsonde data. For this particular typhoon, the potential vorticity (PV) diagnosis is adopted to understand the key factors affecting the track. A data denial run initialized at 0000 UTC 10 September is examined to evaluate how the extra data collected during T-PARC improve GFS track forecasts. A quantitative analysis of the steering flow based on the PV diagnosis indicates that the Pacific subtropical high to the east of Sinlaku is a primary factor that advects Sinlaku northwestward, while the monsoon trough plays a secondary role. The assimilation of dropwindsonde data improves the structure and intensity of the initial vortex and maintains the forecast vortex structure in the vertical. The difference in the vertical extent of the vortices could be regarded as a cause for the discrepancy in steering flow between runs with and without the dropwindsonde data. This paper highlights the importance of improved analyses of the vertical TC structure, and thus of a representative steering flow in the deep troposphere during the forecasts.

scholarly journals How fast should social restrictions be eased  in England as COVID-19 vaccinations are rolled out?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Miles ◽  
Adrian Heald ◽  
Mike Stedman
Keyword(s):  
Healthcare Services ◽  
Key Factors ◽  
Healthcare Provision ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Education Outcomes ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Standards Of Living ◽  
Life Years ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

Vaccination against the COVID-19 virus began in December 2020 in the UK and is now running at 5% population/week. High Levels of social restrictions were implemented for the third time in January 2021 to control the second wave and resulting increases in hospitalisations and deaths. Easing those restrictions must balance multiple challenging priorities, weighing the risk of more deaths and hospitalisations against damage done to mental health, incomes and standards of living, education outcomes and provision of non-Covid-19 healthcare. Weekly and monthly officially published values in 2020/21 were used to estimate the impact of seasonality and social restrictions on the spread of COVID-19 by age group, on the economy and healthcare services. These factors were combined with the estimated impact of vaccinations and immunity from past infections into a model that retrospectively reflected the actual numbers of reported deaths closely both in 2020 and early 2021. It was applied prospectively to the next 6 months to evaluate the impact of different speeds of easing social restrictions. The results show vaccinations are significantly reducing the number of hospitalisations and deaths. The central estimate is that relative to a rapid easing, the avoided loss of 57,000 life years from a strategy of relatively slow easing over the next 4 months comes at a cost in terms of GDP reduction of around £0.4 million/life-year loss avoided. This is over 10 times higher than the usual limit the NHS uses for spending against Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) saved. Alternative assumptions for key factors affecting give significantly different trade-offs between costs and benefits of different speeds of easing. Disruption of non-Covid-19 Healthcare provision also increases in times of higher levels of social restrictions. In most cases, the results favour a somewhat faster easing of restrictions in England than current policy implies.

Factors Affecting Design Decisions for Customer Relationship Management Data Warehouses

2011 ◽  
pp. 159-191
Author(s):  
Colleen Cunningham ◽  
Il-Yeol Song
Keyword(s):  
Customer Relationship Management ◽  
Data Warehousing ◽  
Relationship Management ◽  
Customer Relationship ◽  
Data Warehouses ◽  
Key Factors ◽  
Design Decisions ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Percent Success ◽  
The Impact

Customer relationship management (CRM) is a strategy that integrates concepts of knowledge management, data mining, and data warehousing in order to support an organization’s decision-making process to retain long-term and profitable relationships with its customers. Key factors for successfully implementing CRM (e.g., data quality issues, organizational readiness, customer strategies, selection of appropriate KPIs, and the design of the data warehouse model) are discussed with the main thrust of the chapter focusing on CRM analyses and the impact of those analyses on CRM data warehousing design decisions. This chapter then presents a robust multidimensional starter model that supports CRM analyses. Additional research contributions include the introduction of two new measures, percent success ratio and CRM suitability ratio by which CRM models can be evaluated, the identification/ classification of CRM queries, and a preliminary heuristic for designing data warehouses to support CRM analyses.

scholarly journals The Impact of Air–Sea Interactions on the Simulation of Tropical Intraseasonal Variability

2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (24) ◽  
pp. 6616-6635 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kathy Pegion ◽  
Ben P. Kirtman
Keyword(s):  
Intraseasonal Variability ◽  
Intraseasonal Oscillation ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Coupled Simulation ◽  
Maritime Continent ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
Climate Forecast System ◽  
Environmental Prediction ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Western Pacific

Abstract The impact of coupled air–sea feedbacks on the simulation of tropical intraseasonal variability is investigated in this study using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System. The simulation of tropical intraseasonal variability in a freely coupled simulation is compared with two simulations of the atmospheric component of the model. In one experiment, the uncoupled model is forced with the daily sea surface temperature (SST) from the coupled run. In the other, the uncoupled model is forced with climatological SST from the coupled run. Results indicate that the overall intraseasonal variability of precipitation is reduced in the coupled simulation compared to the uncoupled simulation forced by daily SST. Additionally, air–sea coupling is responsible for differences in the simulation of the tropical intraseasonal oscillation between the coupled and uncoupled models, specifically in terms of organization and propagation in the western Pacific. The differences between the coupled and uncoupled simulations are due to the fact that the relationships between precipitation and SST and latent heat flux and SST are much stronger in the coupled model than in the uncoupled model. Additionally, these relationships are delayed by about 5 days in the uncoupled model compared to the coupled model. As demonstrated by the uncoupled simulation forced with climatological SST, some of the intraseasonal oscillation can be simulated by internal atmospheric dynamics. However, the intraseasonally varying SST appears to be important to the amplitude and propagation of the oscillation beyond the Maritime Continent.

Factors Affecting Tourists’ Involvement in Environmental Protection

2014 ◽  
Vol 1073-1076 ◽  
pp. 2875-2880
Author(s):  
Li Mei Wang
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Protection ◽  
Tourist Attraction ◽  
Key Factors ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Level Of Education ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Influential Variable

Based on the survey (2013) of Mount Qian tourist attraction in Liaoning and the questionnaire on tourists home and abroad, the writer analyzes the data concerning tourists’ protection of tourism environment and thus draws the conclusion that a host of factors can account for the difference in tourists’ behavior and attitudes to environmental protection. Key factors include gender, level of education, awareness of environmental protection, attitude to environment and pressure from people around. Pressure from others is the most influential variable among these factors. Statistics also show that travellers tend to be passive in their involvement in enviromental protection.

scholarly journals Increasing vertical resolution in US models to improve track forecasts of Hurricane Joaquin with HWRF as an example

2016 ◽  
Vol 113 (42) ◽  
pp. 11765-11769 ◽  
Author(s):  
Banglin Zhang ◽  
Richard S. Lindzen ◽  
Vijay Tallapragada ◽  
Fuzhong Weng ◽  
Qingfu Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Vertical Resolution ◽  
Global Forecast System ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
Atlantic Basin ◽  
Hurricane Track ◽  
Environmental Prediction ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Positive Impacts

The atmosphere−ocean coupled Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast model (HWRF) developed at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is used as an example to illustrate the impact of model vertical resolution on track forecasts of tropical cyclones. A number of HWRF forecasting experiments were carried out at different vertical resolutions for Hurricane Joaquin, which occurred from September 27 to October 8, 2015, in the Atlantic Basin. The results show that the track prediction for Hurricane Joaquin is much more accurate with higher vertical resolution. The positive impacts of higher vertical resolution on hurricane track forecasts suggest that National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/NCEP should upgrade both HWRF and the Global Forecast System to have more vertical levels.

scholarly journals Reanalysis intercomparison of potential vorticity and potential-vorticity-based diagnostics

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (7) ◽  
pp. 5355-5376
Author(s):  
Luis F. Millán ◽  
Gloria L. Manney ◽  
Zachary D. Lawrence
Keyword(s):  
Potential Vorticity ◽  
Vortex Formation ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Transport Processes ◽  
Climate Forecast ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
Climate Forecast System ◽  
Stratospheric Polar Vortex ◽  
High Resolution Data ◽  
Environmental Prediction

Abstract. Global reanalyses from data assimilation systems are among the most widely used datasets in weather and climate studies, and potential vorticity (PV) from reanalyses is invaluable for many studies of dynamical and transport processes. We assess how consistently modern reanalyses represent potential vorticity (PV) among each other, focusing not only on PV but also on process-oriented dynamical diagnostics including equivalent latitude calculated from PV and PV-based tropopause and stratospheric polar vortex characterization. In particular we assess the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System Reanalysis/Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSR/CFSv2) reanalysis, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Interim (ERA-Interim) reanalysis, the Japanese Meteorological Agency's 55-year (JRA-55) reanalysis, and the NASA Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2). Overall, PV from all reanalyses agrees well with the reanalysis ensemble mean, providing some confidence that all of these recent reanalyses are suitable for most studies using PV-based diagnostics. Specific diagnostics where some larger differences are seen include PV-based tropopause locations in regions that have strong tropopause gradients (such as around the subtropical jets) or are sparse in high-resolution data (such as over Antarctica), and the stratospheric polar vortices during fall vortex formation and (especially) spring vortex breakup; studies of sensitive situations or regions such as these should examine PV from multiple reanalyses.

scholarly journals Skills Development in The Asia-Pacific Maritime World: A Comparative Study of Vocational Education in Malaysia and Indonesia

2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 22-33
Author(s):  
Ramlee Mustapha
Keyword(s):  
Southeast Asia ◽  
Vocational Education ◽  
Performance Management ◽  
Asia Pacific ◽  
New Concepts ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Technical And Vocational Education ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Capital Development ◽  
The Impact

This region of Southeast Asia shares more social and cultural ties with other Austronesian peoples in the Pacific than with the peoples of mainland Southeast Asia. Contemporarily, Asia Pacific is still the fastest growing economic region in the world despite economic turbulence and uncertainties in recent years due to the global economic slow-down.  As one of centres of economic power, the region could hardly remain immune to the globalizing impact of economic and technological change. The purpose of this study was to explore the development of Technical and Vocational education in Malaysia and Indonesia by analyzing the history, policies, and its direction. In Malaya, the Technical and Vocational education prior to independence had projected the images of “colonial apprenticeship” with the emphasis on manual agricultural and crafts, which aimed at training the Malay students to fill positions in the Railway department under the Federated Malay States. After independence, Technical and Vocational education in Malaysia continued to grow, and some reforms have been implemented to improve the image of Technical and Vocational education itself.  In Indonesia, a similar development occurred but the difference is in terms of Technical and Vocational education funding at the secondary level where there are many private Technical and Vocational schools as compared to Malaysia.  There are new concepts introduced in Technical and Vocational education, such as the Tech-Prep, Time Sector Privatization and Vocational Colleges in Malaysia and Link and Match, Dual System, Product-based Curriculum, and Total Performance Management (TPM) in Indonesia, but the concepts are yet to be carried out optimally due of some constraints.  The implications of this study are to identify the human capital development in the maritime Archipelago countries from the perspectives of the competitiveness and the preparation for dealing with the impact of globalization.

scholarly journals The Impact of Coating Ingredients on the Aging Resistance of Topcoat Paints by Model Trees

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tzu-Tsung Wong ◽  
Shih-Hsuan Hung
Keyword(s):  
Linear Regression ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Prediction Method ◽  
Linear Regression Models ◽  
Key Factors ◽  
Model Trees ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Aging Resistance ◽  
Before And After ◽  
The Impact

Topcoat paint is mainly composed of resin and pigment and hence its quality highly depends on the type and proportion of these two ingredients. This study aims at testing the formula of the topcoat paint for finding one that can achieve better quality for anti-aging. Various formulas of paint are applied on boards that will be put into ultraviolet accelerated test machines to simulate weathering tests. The gloss and color, before and after the tests, are collected and numerical prediction method M5P is used to grow model trees for discovering the key factors affecting aging. Based on the structure and the linear regression models in the trees, a better topcoat paint should be composed of a high proportion of resin and generally a low proportion of pigment. Good types of resin and pigment are also identified for keeping color and gloss.

scholarly journals An extension of Vroom’s expectancy theory (1964) in examining lecturers’ motivation in Vietnam

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 490-498
Author(s):  
Tran Thi-Kim Nhung ◽  
Nguyen Thanh Do
Keyword(s):  
Expectancy Theory ◽  
Faculty Members ◽  
Key Factors ◽  
Academic Degree ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Research Activities ◽  
Academic Activities ◽  
Administrative Position ◽  
And Gender ◽  
The Impact

As academic activities and research performances become important criteria in evaluating the quality of a university, research activities have received a special concern from universities. The key questions are what prompts faculty members to do research and how to motivate them. In order to answer these questions, it is necessary to examine the factors affecting the research motivation, then measure the impact of these factors on the faculty members' research motivation. In this study, the authors employed the expansive expectancy theory proposed by Chiang & Jang to investigate key factors that motivate faculty members to conduct research. The regression results on data collected from a survey on 475 faculty members at universities in Hanoi showed that faculty members are motivated by the intrinsic instrumentality factor (INTIN), financial value factor (FINVA) and expectancy factor (EXPECT – the factor that yields controversial results in previous studies). These findings suggest that the research motivation of lecturers has a positive correlation with academic degree, administrative position and has no relationship with age and gender.  

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