scholarly journals Singular Extreme Events and Their Attribution to Climate Change: A Climate Service–Centered Analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 89-101
Author(s):  
Aglaé Jézéquel ◽  
Vivian Dépoues ◽  
Hélène Guillemot ◽  
Amélie Rajaud ◽  
Mélodie Trolliet ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Event ◽  
Climate Science ◽  
Structured Interviews ◽  
European Climate ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Event Attribution ◽  
Climate Service ◽  
Do So

AbstractExtreme event attribution (EEA) proposes scientific diagnostics on whether and how a specific weather event is (or is not) different in the actual world from what it could have been in a world without climate change. This branch of climate science has developed to the point where European institutions are preparing the ground for an operational attribution service. In this context, the goal of this article is to explore a panorama of scientist perspectives on their motivations to undertake EEA studies. To do so, we rely on qualitative semi-structured interviews of climate scientists involved in EEA, on peer-reviewed social and climate literature discussing the usefulness of EEA, and on reports from the EUCLEIA project (European Climate and Weather Events: Interpretation and Attribution), which investigated the possibility of building an EEA service. We propose a classification of EEA’s potential uses and users and discuss each of them. We find that, first, there is a plurality of motivations and that individual scientists disagree on which one is most useful. Second, there is a lack of solid, empirical evidence to back up any of these motivations.

scholarly journals Singular Extreme Events and Their Attribution to Climate Change: A Climate Service–Centered Analysis

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aglae Jezequel ◽  
Vivian Dépoues ◽  
Hélène Guillemot ◽  
Amélie Rajaud ◽  
Mélodie Trolliet ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Event ◽  
Climate Science ◽  
Structured Interviews ◽  
European Climate ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Event Attribution ◽  
Climate Service ◽  
Do So

<p>Extreme event attribution (EEA) proposes scientific diagnostics on whether and how a specific weather event is (or is not) different in the actual world from what it could have been in a world without climate change. This branch of climate science has developed to the point where European institutions are preparing the ground for an operational attribution service. In this context, the goal of this article is to explore a panorama of scientist perspectives on their motivations to undertake EEA studies. To do so, we rely on qualitative semi-structured interviews of climate scientists involved in EEA, on peer-reviewed social and climate literature discussing the usefulness of EEA, and on reports from the EUCLEIA project (European Climate and Weather Events: Interpretation and Attribution), which investigated the possibility of building an EEA service. We propose a classification of EEA’s potential uses and users and discuss each of them. We find that, first, there is a plurality of motivations and that individual scientists disagree on which one is most useful. Second, there is a lack of solid, empirical evidence to back up any of these motivations.</p>

scholarly journals Media Representation of Extreme Event Attribution: A Case Study of the 2011–17 California Drought

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 847-862 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shannon Osaka ◽  
James Painter ◽  
Peter Walton ◽  
Abby Halperin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Media Coverage ◽  
Extreme Event ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Media Representation ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Event Attribution ◽  
The Media

AbstractExtreme event attribution (EEA) is a relatively new branch of climate science combining weather observations and modeling to assess and quantify whether and to what extent anthropogenic climate change altered extreme weather events (such as heat waves, droughts, and floods). Such weather events are frequently depicted in the media, which enhances the potential of EEA coverage to serve as a tool to communicate on-the-ground climate impacts to the general public. However, few academic papers have systematically analyzed EEA’s media representation. This paper helps to fill this literature gap through a comprehensive analysis of media coverage of the 2011–17 California drought, with specific attention to the types of attribution and uncertainty represented. Results from an analysis of five U.S. media outlets between 2014 and 2015 indicate that the connection between the drought and climate change was covered widely in both local and national news. However, legitimate differences in the methods underpinning the attribution studies performed by different researchers often resulted in a frame of scientific uncertainty or disagreement in the media coverage. While this case study shows substantial media interest in attribution science, it also raises important challenges for scientists and others communicating the results of multiple attribution studies via the media.

scholarly journals Pathways and pitfalls in extreme event attribution

2021 ◽  
Vol 166 (1-2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Geert Jan van Oldenborgh ◽  
Karin van der Wiel ◽  
Sarah Kew ◽  
Sjoukje Philip ◽  
Friederike Otto ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Extreme Event ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Climate Science ◽  
Companion Paper ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Practical Applications ◽  
Event Attribution

AbstractThe last few years have seen an explosion of interest in extreme event attribution, the science of estimating the influence of human activities or other factors on the probability and other characteristics of an observed extreme weather or climate event. This is driven by public interest, but also has practical applications in decision-making after the event and for raising awareness of current and future climate change impacts. The World Weather Attribution (WWA) collaboration has over the last 5 years developed a methodology to answer these questions in a scientifically rigorous way in the immediate wake of the event when the information is most in demand. This methodology has been developed in the practice of investigating the role of climate change in two dozen extreme events world-wide. In this paper, we highlight the lessons learned through this experience. The methodology itself is documented in a more extensive companion paper. It covers all steps in the attribution process: the event choice and definition, collecting and assessing observations and estimating probability and trends from these, climate model evaluation, estimating modelled hazard trends and their significance, synthesis of the attribution of the hazard, assessment of trends in vulnerability and exposure, and communication. Here, we discuss how each of these steps entails choices that may affect the results, the common problems that can occur and how robust conclusions can (or cannot) be derived from the analysis. Some of these developments also apply to other attribution methodologies and indeed to other problems in climate science.

scholarly journals Educação Ambiental crítica aplicada à compreensão dos problemas da Terra Indígena Lagoa da Encantada: proposições no âmbito escolar a partir da percepção dos membros-chave da etnia Jenipapo Kanindé, Aquiraz, Ceará – Brasil

2017 ◽  
Vol 34 (2) ◽  
pp. 256-274
Author(s):  
Aline Neris de Carvalho Maciel ◽  
Francisco Otávio Landim Neto ◽  
Edson Vicente da Silva
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Education ◽  
Ethnic Group ◽  
Environmental Planning ◽  
Structured Interviews ◽  
Local School ◽  
Indian People ◽  
Indian Land ◽  
Do So ◽  
Environmental Planning And Management

O presente artigo objetivou analisar como o povo Jenipapo Kanindé, da Terra Indígena (TI) Lagoa da Encantada (Aquiraz, Ceará), compreende a Educação Ambiental (EA). Para tanto, foram realizadas entrevistas semi-estruturadas com membros-chave da comunidade e escolhida a escola local como ambiente favorável à EA crítica. Adotou-se uma adaptação das “Fases de Planejamento e Gestão Ambiental” estabelecidas por Rodriguez e Silva (2013) como percurso metodológico e a divisão da EA definida por Layrargues e Lima (2014) para categorizar as respostas dos entrevistados. Percebeu-se que a etnia possui uma visão não crítica da EA, desde sua conceituação até suas possibilidades de atuação no combate aos problemas existentes na TI. Por fim, estabeleceram-se proposições em EA crítica, com foco na educação indígena diferenciada que é promovida na escola local. O presente artículo objetiva analizar como el pueblo Jenipapo Kanindé, de la Tierra Indígena (TI) Lagoa da Encantada (Aquiraz, Ceará), percibe la a Educación Ambiental (EA). Para tanto, fueron realizadas entrevistas semiestructuradas con integrantes clave de la comunidad y definida la escuela local como ambiente favorable a la EA crítica. Fueron adoptadas y adaptadas las “Fases de Planeamiento y Gestión Ambiental” establecidas por Rodriguez y Silva (2013) como recorrido metodológico y la división de la EA definida por Layrargues y Lima (2014) para categorizar las respuestas de los entrevistados. Fue constatado que la etnia tiene una visión no crítica de la EA, desde su conceptuación hacia sus posibilidades de actuación en el combate a los líos existentes en la TI. Al final, son hechas propuestas en EA crítica, mirando la educación indígena diferenciada que es promovida en la escuela local. The present paper aimed to analyze how the Jenipapo Kanindé people of the Indian Land (IL) Lagoa Encantada (Aquiraz, Ceará) understands Environmental Education (EE). To do so, semi-structured interviews were applied to key members of the community and a local school was chosen as a place favorable to critical EE. An adaptation of “Phases of Environmental Planning and Management” by Rodriguez and Silva (2013) and the classification of EE defined as in Layrargues and Lima (2014) were adopted as a methodological pipeline and to categorize the respondents’ answers, respectively. It was realized that the ethnic group has a non-critical perception of EE, starting from its conceptualization to taking possible measures to fight against the ongoing problems in the IL. Finally, purposes of critical EE focused on the differential education of the indian people promoted in the local school were established.

Teaching in Stormy Weather

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
pp. 513-517
Author(s):  
Shawna Ross
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Learning Community ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Weather Patterns ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Oak Trees ◽  
Event Attribution ◽  
Adverse Weather ◽  
Stormy Weather

This article considers the pedagogical implications of climate change and other environmental catastrophes of the Anthropocene, the new geological epoch identified by climate scientists. In the Anthropocene, the human species has become the most significant force shaping Earth’s geosphere and is responsible for a number of anxiety-producing effects beyond the rise of global temperatures. As erratic weather patterns and extreme weather events have increased, climatologists have been perfecting new methods of single-event attribution capable of linking particular adverse weather events (including droughts, heat waves, flooding tornadoes, and hurricanes) directly to climate change. To provide a concrete example of those universal trends, the author applies her experiences in teaching in Texas, which is strongly marked by long-term forces of anthropogenic environmental devastation (such as the northward migration of the oak trees and alterations in the lithosphere caused by oil extraction). It has also been impacted by hurricanes, floods, and freezes that delayed the onset of the Fall 2017 and Spring 2018 semesters and, in many cases, damaged or destroyed her students’ homes at Texas A&M. The article recounts the strategies that her learning community used to adjust to these exigencies and then offers suggestions for adapting these strategies to other locales.

scholarly journals Decision-making through the grapevine: Winegrowers' perceptions on climate change and the barriers to adaptation planning in New Zealand

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Alyssa Ryan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
New Zealand ◽  
Climate Science ◽  
Wine Industry ◽  
Adaptation Planning ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Structured Interviews ◽  
Wine Production ◽  
Climate Change Research

<p>New Zealand wine is cultivated in cool climates that produce distinctive flavours and wine-styles, which are representative of the terroir of the region. The effects of climate change can impact the quality and quantity of winegrapes, and the production of premium wine. The aim of this research was to investigate adaptation planning in the New Zealand wine industry by evaluating winegrowers’ decision-making and perceptions of climate change. Research was conducted using primary survey data from New Zealand winegrowers and semi-structured interviews with winegrowers from three case study regions of Marlborough, Central Otago, and Hawke’s Bay. The study was designed to assess how climate change is understood throughout the industry, whether adaptation plans are being developed or employed and the barriers hindering winegrowers’ implementation of adaptation strategies. The results show that winegrowers are somewhat informed about climate change with some adaptation planning occurring. However, the majority of winegrowers have no plans to adapt to climate change. The uncertainty in the climate science and the availability of information were indicated as a barrier to adaptation planning. Winegrowers convey the need for regional information with a focus on reliable forecasting and climate projections for the next few years. The New Zealand wine industry is in a positive position to undertake adaptation with the opportunity to exploit the benefits of climate change for wine production.</p>

scholarly journals Computer-assisted detection and classification of misinformation about climate change

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Travis Coan ◽  
Constantine Boussalis ◽  
John Cook ◽  
Mirjam Nanko
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Science ◽  
Computer Assisted ◽  
Think Tank ◽  
Detailed History ◽  
The Past ◽  
Computer Assisted Detection ◽  
History Of

A growing body of scholarship investigates the role of misinformation in shaping the debate on climate change. Our research builds on and extends this literature by 1) developing and validating a comprehensive taxonomy of climate misinformation, 2) conducting the largest content analysis to date on contrarian claims, 3) developing a computational model to accurately detect specific claims, and 4) drawing on an extensive corpus from conservative think-tank (CTTs) websites and contrarian blogs to construct a detailed history of misinformation over the past 20 years. Our study finds that climate misinformation produced by CTTs and contrarian blogs has focused on attacking the integrity of climate science and scientists and, increasingly, has challenged climate policy and renewable energy. We further demonstrate the utility of our approach by exploring the influence of corporate and foundation funding on the production and dissemination of specific contrarian claims.

scholarly journals Attributing compound events to anthropogenic climate change

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-45
Author(s):  
Jakob Zscheischler ◽  
Flavio Lehner
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Extreme Event ◽  
Synthetic Data ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
Anthropogenic Influence ◽  
Western Cape ◽  
Event Attribution ◽  
Compound Events

AbstractExtreme event attribution answers the question whether and by how much anthropogenic climate change has contributed to the occurrence or magnitude of an extreme weather event. It is also used to link extreme event impacts to climate change. Impacts, however, are often related to multiple compounding climate drivers. Because extreme event attribution typically focuses on univariate assessments, these assessments might only provide a partial answer to the question of anthropogenic influence to a high-impact event. We present a theoretical extension to classical extreme event attribution for certain types of compound events. Based on synthetic data we illustrate how the bivariate fraction of attributable risk (FAR) differs from the univariate FAR depending on the extremeness of the event as well as the trends in and dependence between the contributing variables. Overall, the bivariate FAR is similar in magnitude or smaller than the univariate FAR if the trend in the second variable is comparably weak and the dependence between both variables is moderate or high, a typical situation for temporally co-occurring heatwaves and droughts. If both variables have similarly large trends or the dependence between both variables is weak, bivariate FARs are larger and are likely to provide a more adequate quantification of the anthropogenic influence. Using multiple climate model large ensembles, we apply the framework to two case studies, a recent sequence of hot and dry years in the Western Cape region of South Africa and two spatially co-occurring droughts in crop-producing regions in South Africa and Lesotho.

Climate Change and Cultural Heritage in Western Mongolia

Leonardo ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 51 (3) ◽  
pp. 285-286
Author(s):  
Jennifer C. Post
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Cultural Production ◽  
Climate Science ◽  
The Body ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Ecological Knowledge ◽  
Work Patterns ◽  
Western Mongolia ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
The Impact

This report addresses the impact of climate change on cultural production among Kazakh mobile pastoral herders in the Altai Mountains of western Mongolia. It highlights the body of ecological knowledge that herders carry from generation to generation and express in their music, instruments, textiles, and heritage actions such as work patterns and social gatherings. Extreme weather events, loss of water sources, and desertification have deeply impacted herders and this is expressed in their cultural forms. The study engages with rangeland and climate science and draws on the author’s fieldwork with Kazakh herders in Mongolia.

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