Bayesian Nonparametric Estimation of Failure Rates with Censored Data

1983 ◽  
Vol 32 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 79-90 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. S. Rao ◽  
R. C. Tiwari
Keyword(s):  
Failure Time ◽  
Dirichlet Distribution ◽  
Survival Function ◽  
Fixed Time ◽  
Bayes Estimation ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Failure Rates ◽  
Failure Time Distribution ◽  
Accelerated Life ◽  
Bayesian Nonparametric Estimation

The failure time distribution is estimated in the nonparametric context when some of tbe observations arc censored. The time interval is partitioned into fixed class intervals, and number of failures and number censored in each of these intervals are observed. Using a Dirichlet distribution as the prior, the resulting estimates of the survival function and the failure rate have a nice and simple form. If instead of the fixed time intervals, one uses the “natural” intervals formed by the observed failure times, this gives essentially the same results as in Ferauson IUld Phadia (1977), Susarla and Van Ryzin (1976), but in a much simpler way. Bayes estimation under the increasins and decreasing failure rates is also considered, and applications to accelerated life testing are discussed.

Utilization of remote sensing for estimation of scale of cutting and growing of forest zones

2017 ◽  
Vol 920 (2) ◽  
pp. 57-60
Author(s):  
F.E. Guliyeva
Keyword(s):  
Remote Sensing ◽  
Fixed Time ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Time Points ◽  
Average Value ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Remote Estimation ◽  
The Given ◽  
Forest Cutting

The study of results of relevant works on remote sensing of forests has shown that the known methods of remote estimation of forest cuts and growth don’t allow to calculate the objective average value of forests cut volume during the fixed time period. The existing mathematical estimates are not monotonous and make it possible to estimate primitively the scale of cutting by computing the ratio of data in two fixed time points. In the article the extreme properties of the considered estimates for deforestation and reforestation models are researched. The extreme features of integrated averaged values of given estimates upon limitations applied on variables, characterizing the deforestation and reforestation processes are studied. The integrated parameter, making it possible to calculate the averaged value of estimates of forest cutting, computed for all fixed time period with a fixed step is suggested. It is shown mathematically that the given estimate has a monotonous feature in regard of value of given time interval and make it possible to evaluate objectively the scales of forest cutting.

scholarly journals Improved bounds for the availability and unavailability in a fixed time interval for systems of maintained, interdependent components

1980 ◽  
Vol 12 (01) ◽  
pp. 200-221 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Natvig
Keyword(s):  
Lower Bound ◽  
System Reliability ◽  
Nuclear Reactors ◽  
Random Variables ◽  
Fixed Time ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Coherent System ◽  
Exact Results ◽  
Fixed Time Interval ◽  
Special Case

In this paper we arrive at a series of bounds for the availability and unavailability in the time interval I = [t A , t B ] ⊂ [0, ∞), for a coherent system of maintained, interdependent components. These generalize the minimal cut lower bound for the availability in [0, t] given in Esary and Proschan (1970) and also most bounds for the reliability at time t given in Bodin (1970) and Barlow and Proschan (1975). In the latter special case also some new improved bounds are given. The bounds arrived at are of great interest when trying to predict the performance process of the system. In particular, Lewis et al. (1978) have revealed the great need for adequate tools to treat the dependence between the random variables of interest when considering the safety of nuclear reactors. Satyanarayana and Prabhakar (1978) give a rapid algorithm for computing exact system reliability at time t. This can also be used in cases where some simpler assumptions on the dependence between the components are made. It seems, however, impossible to extend their approach to obtain exact results for the cases treated in the present paper.

scholarly journals A new dynamic model to optimize the reliability of the series-parallel systems under warm standby components

2021 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
pp. 0
Author(s):  
Amir Mohammad Fakoor Saghih ◽  
Azam Modares
Keyword(s):  
Dynamic Models ◽  
Failure Time ◽  
Recursive Formula ◽  
Reliability Function ◽  
Mode Analysis ◽  
Redundancy Allocation ◽  
Failure Time Distribution ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Common Technique ◽  
Warm Standby

<p style='text-indent:20px;'>Redundancy allocation problem (RAP) is a common technique for increasing the reliability of systems. In this paper, a new model for the RAP is introduced that takes into account the warm standby and mixed strategy, the model dynamics, and the type of the strategy in redundancy allocation problems. A recursive formula is first obtained for the reliability function in the dynamic warm standby and mixed redundancy strategies that leverages the success mode analysis and works for any arbitrary failure-time distribution. Failure rates for warm standby units change before and after their replacement with a damaged unit, and, therefore, the reliability function in warm standby varies with time (i.e., the model is dynamic). Although dynamic models are commonplace in practice, they are more challenging to assess than static models, which have been mainly considered in the literature. An optimization problem is then formulated to select the best redundancy strategy and redundancy levels. Genetic algorithm and particle swarm optimization are leveraged to solve the problem. Finally, the efficiency of the presented method is verified through a numerical example. The experimental results verify that the proposed model for RAP significantly improves the system reliability, which can be of vital importance for system designers.</p>

A PROPOSED FORMULA FOR HORIZONTAL REVENUE ALLOCATION IN NIGERIA

2012 ◽  
Vol 29 (06) ◽  
pp. 1250033
Author(s):  
VIRTUE U. EKHOSUEHI ◽  
AUGUSTINE A. OSAGIEDE
Keyword(s):  
Optimal Control ◽  
Federal Government ◽  
Optimal Control Theory ◽  
Fixed Time ◽  
Tax Revenue ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Fixed Time Interval ◽  
Hypothetical Data ◽  
Revenue Allocation ◽  
The Individual

In this study, we have applied optimal control theory to determine the optimum value of tax revenues accruing to a state given the range of budgeted expenditure on enforcing tax laws and awareness creation on the payment of the correct tax. This is achieved by maximizing the state's net tax revenue over a fixed time interval subject to certain constraints. By assuming that the satisfaction derived by the Federal Government of Nigeria on the ability of the individual states to generate tax revenue which is as near as the optimum tax revenue (via the state's control problem) is described by the logarithmic form of the Cobb–Douglas utility function, a formula for horizontal revenue allocation in Nigeria in its raw form is derived. Afterwards, we illustrate the use of the proposed horizontal revenue allocation formula using hypothetical data.

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