A Bayesian Approach to Kalman Filter for Elliptically Contoured Distribution and its Application in Time Series Models

1994 ◽  
Vol 44 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 11-28 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. K. Basu ◽  
J. K. Das
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Kalman Filter ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
State Equation ◽  
Autoregressive Moving Average ◽  
Missing Observations ◽  
Estimation Of Parameters ◽  
Bayesian Formulation ◽  
Set Up ◽  
Elliptically Contoured

This paper develops a Bayesian formulation of Kalman filter under the errors having elliptically contoured distributions in both observation equation and system (or state) equation, using some recent results in multivariate analysis. Estimation of parameters in case of missing observations and prediction of missing observations as well are dealt with under the above set up of autoregressive-moving average process in time series. Two illustrative examples are presented with the help of AR(1) model and ARMA (1, 1) model.

scholarly journals The time series regression analysis in evaluating the economic impact of COVID-19 cases in Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 197-210
Author(s):  
Utriweni Mukhaiyar ◽  
Devina Widyanti ◽  
Sandy Vantika
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Autoregressive Moving Average ◽  
Transfer Function Model ◽  
Function Model ◽  
Time Series Regression ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
The Impact

This study aims to determine the impact of COVID-19 cases in Indonesia on the USD/IDR exchange rate using the Transfer Function Model and Vector Autoregressive Moving-Average with Exogenous Regressors (VARMAX) Model. This paper uses daily data on the COVID-19 case in Indonesia, the USD/IDR exchange rate, and the IDX Composite period from 1 March to 29 June 2020. The analysis shows: (1) the higher the increase of the number of COVID-19 cases in Indonesia will significantly weaken the USD/IDR exchange rate, (2) an increase of 1% in the number of COVID-19 cases in Indonesia six days ago will weaken the USD/IDR exchange rate by 0.003%, (3) an increase of 1% in the number of COVID-19 cases in Indonesia seven days ago will weaken the USD/IDR exchange rate by 0.17%, and (4) an increase of 1% in the number of COVID-19 cases in Indonesia eight days ago will weaken the USD/IDR exchange rate by 0.24%.

ARMA processes have maximal entropy among time series with prescribed autocovariances and impulse responses

1985 ◽  
Vol 17 (04) ◽  
pp. 810-840 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jürgen Franke
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Impulse Response ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Autoregressive Process ◽  
Natural Generalization ◽  
Maximal Entropy ◽  
Autoregressive Moving Average ◽  
Moving Average Process ◽  
Arma Process ◽  
Arma Processes

The maximum-entropy approach to the estimation of the spectral density of a time series has become quite popular during the last decade. It is closely related to the fact that an autoregressive process of order p has maximal entropy among all time series sharing the same autocovariances up to lag p. We give a natural generalization of this result by proving that a mixed autoregressive-moving-average process (ARMA process) of order (p, q) has maximal entropy among all time series sharing the same autocovariances up to lag p and the same impulse response coefficients up to lag q. The latter may be estimated from a finite record of the time series, for example by using a method proposed by Bhansali (1976). By the way, we give a result on the existence of ARMA processes with prescribed autocovariances up to lag p and impulse response coefficients up to lag q.

Parametric estimators for stationary time series with missing observations

1981 ◽  
Vol 13 (01) ◽  
pp. 129-146 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. Dunsmuir ◽  
P. M. Robinson
Keyword(s):  
Unknown Parameter ◽  
Strong Consistency ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Stationary Time Series ◽  
Autoregressive Moving Average ◽  
Missing Observations ◽  
Parameter Vector ◽  
Moving Average Process ◽  
The Third ◽  
Unknown Parameter Vector

Three related estimators are considered for the parametrized spectral density of a discrete-time process X(n), n = 1, 2, · · ·, when observations are not available for all the values n = 1(1)N. Each of the estimators is obtained by maximizing a frequency domain approximation to a Gaussian likelihood, although they do not appear to be the most efficient estimators available because they do not fully utilize the information in the process a(n) which determines whether X(n) is observed or missed. One estimator, called M3, assumes that the second-order properties of a(n) are known; another, M2, lets these be known only up to an unknown parameter vector; the third, M1, requires no model for a(n). Under representative sets of conditions, which allow for both deterministic and stochastic a(n), the strong consistency and asymptotic normality of M1, M2, and M3 are established. The conditions needed for consistency when X(n) is an autoregressive moving-average process are discussed in more detail. It is also shown that in general M1 and M3 are equally efficient asymptotically and M2 is never more efficient, and may be less efficient, than M1 and M3.

Continuous Autoregressive Moving Average Models

2021 ◽  
pp. 118-141
Author(s):  
Yakup Ari
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Parameter Estimation ◽  
Differential Equations ◽  
Stochastic Differential Equations ◽  
Discrete Time ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Likelihood Estimation ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Autoregressive Moving Average ◽  
The Difference

The financial time series have a high frequency and the difference between their observations is not regular. Therefore, continuous models can be used instead of discrete-time series models. The purpose of this chapter is to define Lévy-driven continuous autoregressive moving average (CARMA) models and their applications. The CARMA model is an explicit solution to stochastic differential equations, and also, it is analogue to the discrete ARMA models. In order to form a basis for CARMA processes, the structures of discrete-time processes models are examined. Then stochastic differential equations, Lévy processes, compound Poisson processes, and variance gamma processes are defined. Finally, the parameter estimation of CARMA(2,1) is discussed as an example. The most common method for the parameter estimation of the CARMA process is the pseudo maximum likelihood estimation (PMLE) method by mapping the ARMA coefficients to the corresponding estimates of the CARMA coefficients. Furthermore, a simulation study and a real data application are given as examples.

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