scholarly journals Trade War: Likely Impact on India

2020 ◽  
Vol 55 (1) ◽  
pp. 93-118
Author(s):  
Rekha Misra ◽  
Sonam Choudhry
Keyword(s):  
Price Index ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Similarity Index ◽  
Economic Effects ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Product Price ◽  
The Us ◽  
Trade War

The global financial crisis triggered the built up of domestic pressure in some countries to introduce protectionist measures against imports. The present discussion regarding the ‘trade war’ and ‘de-globalisation’ intensified after both the US and China escalated the tariff rates on imports originating in the US and China. This study evaluates the potential economic effects of the substantial tariff hikes by these two major economies on Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, particularly for India. The study adds to the existing literature on the trade war by examining potential impact on India’s exports, that is, both direct and indirect losses as well as benefits arising due to the trade war using the economic model based on the trend in trade flows, similarity index and supply chain networks using World Input-Output tables. The study uses the Vector Error Correction Model to empirically evaluate the pass-through of the tariff hike on Indian exports using bilateral real effective exchange rate (REER)-consumer price index and REER-product price index. The study finds that the US–China trade tussle may provide some opportunities in short to medium run for India as gains through trade deflection would be higher than the losses due to trade reduction. However, in the long-run, further escalation of tariffs will have negative impact at the global level. JEL Codes: F1, F62, F68

GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS: THE BUBBLE EFFECT IN INDONESIA

2018 ◽  
pp. 27-33
Author(s):  
Mohammad Benny Alexandri ◽  
Raeny Dwisanti
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Price Ratio ◽  
Sharp Decline ◽  
Book Value ◽  
The Us ◽  
Investment Opportunities ◽  
Us Financial Crisis

US and Indonesia stock markets are entering record heights without being offset by economic growthand profitability growth of their traded companies. There are several indicators for the stock marketbubble: (1) Price Ratio (Ear Ratio); (2) Price Ratio / Book (PB Ratio), the latter comparing thenominal price of one share at a market with the book value (the value of company's assets). Thecurrent PB ratio of the composite stock price index being 3.3 means that for each shares the assetvalue of which is 1 IDR, the stock would be worth 3.3 IDR. This is one of the most expensive price in the world today. Based on the above, for Indonesian stock market sharp decline is just a matter of time and waiting. This decline will be much sharper if triggered by the US financial crisis. We can also also see a bubble emerging from increasingly irrational investment attitudes. Currently, in addition to high prices for stocks and bonds, investors have started looking at investment opportunities in digital currencies. This research tries to know the potential of financial crisis and itseffect for the financial market in Indonesia. 

scholarly journals The Nexus Between Monetary Policy and Economic Growth in Pakistan: Empirical Evidence Based on Bound Test Approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 613-624
Author(s):  
Mahmood Ul Hassan ◽  
Hina Ali ◽  
Saeed Ur Rahman ◽  
Sabiha Parveen
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Bound Test

The objective of this research is to examine the monetary policy's impact on economic growth. Variables of study are Gross domestic product, Inflation, rate of interest, Exchange rate, Money supply, Investment, and Consumer Price Index and time series data is collected from. Gross domestic product is a dependent variable and all other variables are independent and have a great effect on the explanatory variable. In this study, the Augmented dicky fuller test is used to check out the stationarity of our selected variables and after that autoregressive distributed lag model co-integration technique is applied to estimate the parameters of the model. The result shows that inflation, interest rate, and consumer price index show a negative impact on gross domestic product. While other variables such as exchange rate, money supply, and investment show a positive impact on GDP. The study recommended that the desired level of output and employment can be attained by adopting sufficient strategies that reduce inflation in the economy.

Inflation Dynamics and Monetary Policy in India: A New Keynesian Phillips Curve Perspective

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 144-179 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bhavesh Salunkhe ◽  
Anuradha Patnaik
Keyword(s):  
Price Index ◽  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Wholesale Price ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Output Gap ◽  
Moderate Degree ◽  
New Keynesian Phillips Curve ◽  
Price Inflation

The present study estimates various specifications of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) models for India over 1996Q2 to 2017Q2 using Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation, separately. The empirical results suggest that the data support all the specifications of the Phillips curve models based on both the CPI and WPI inflations. However, the backward looking and hybrid models provide robust results for both the inflation indices. While the forward-looking behaviour dominates the CPI inflation trajectory, the backward-looking behaviour greatly influences the trajectory of WPI inflation. Also, a small-to-moderate degree of persistence is evident in both the CPI and WPI inflation. The output gap, which mainly represents the demand side pressures, turns up the major force determining both the CPI and WPI inflations. Besides the output gap, real effective exchange rate (reer), international crude oil price inflation, global non-fuel commodity price inflation and rainfall have a modest impact on the CPI and WPI inflations. JEL Classification: E12, E52, C36, C14

scholarly journals US Stock Market And Macroeconomic Factors

2015 ◽  
Vol 32 (1) ◽  
pp. 325 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francisco Jareño ◽  
Loredana Negrut
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Significant Relationships ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Relevant Factors

<p>This paper analyzes the relationship between the US stock market and some relevant US macroeconomic factors, such as gross domestic product, the consumer price index, the industrial production index, the unemployment rate and long-term interest rates. All the relevant factors show statistically significant relationships with the stock market except for the consumer price index, and the signs are consistent with the findings of previous literature.</p>

scholarly journals ANALISIS FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI KUNJUNGAN WISATAWAN MANCA NEGARA KE INDONESIA

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Wawan Hermawan
Keyword(s):  
Price Index ◽  
Income Elasticity ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Important Variable ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Annual Number ◽  
Important Indicator ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
Per Capita

The tourism sector is a sector that can be relied on to earn foreign exchange.Revenue from tourism showed significant progress and continues to grow, so bringa high impact on the Indonesian economy. Number of tourists visiting foreigncountries is an important indicator for the growth of tourism sector in Indonesia isrelated to the increase in foreign exchange. Increase or decrease of tourist arrivals isinfluenced both by internal factors such as the condition of tourist destinations inIndonesia, politics and security in Indonesia or external factors such as the economic conditions of the various countries of origin of foreign tourists. This study uses panel data with the annual number of tourist arrivals from a number of countries to Indonesia for 19 years as the dependent variable. The independent variable of this research is RGDPP (Real GDP Per Capita), RREER (Relative Real Effective Exchange Rate), TCPI (Indicative Ratio of Consumer Price Index), Population, CPITUNIS (Consumer Price Index Tunisia), TO (Trade Openness). The results of this study indicate that tourist arrivals to Indonesia is heavily influenced by the distance from their home country to destinations in Indonesia. This variable is the biggest variable affecting the arrival of foreign tourists to Indonesia. Income per capita is the second largest variable and has a coefficient  close to unity, so that the income elasticity of country of origin is an important variable to be considered.

scholarly journals Modeling Outcomes of Unconventional Monetary Policy

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 10263-10268
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Unconventional Monetary Policy ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Developed Countries ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

The paper presents a study of the outcomes of the unconventional monetary policy methods that the central banks of developed countries have been applying during and after the global financial crisis. Before the crisis central banks used the interest rate policy as their main tool. But the recent financial crisis has demonstrated the inefficiency of traditional methods (especially after the base interest rate has reached zero). Therefore in response to the global financial crisis, central banks of many countries have taken unconventional measures to overcome the crisis. The paper aims to study the main outcomes of unconventional monetary policy measures of the developed countries and formulate the recommendations for the developing countries. The following objectives are being met in the paper:to reveal the essence of the main mechanisms for implementing the unconventional monetary policy; to evaluate the efficiency of unconventional monetary policy in the US, Japan, United Kingdom;to model the impact of monetary policy of the European Central bank on the consumer price index in the Eurozone countries. Research methods: method of comparative analysis is usedto evaluate the efficiency of the unconventional monetary policy in the US, Japan, European Union and the United Kingdom.The model of themonetary policy impact on the consumer price index is based on econometric analysis and is constructed using the least squares method. The studied model includes both traditional and non-traditional methods.Observation period - quarterly data from 1999 to the second quarter of 2019. The results of the analysis show that unconventional monetary policy methods of the central banks of the developed countries reached major goals - to prevent bankruptcies of large financial institutions in national economies. Moreover, the results of the suggested model show that the European Central Bank policy has also reached its inflation target that supposed to stimulate economic growth; the most significant effect is observed in the first years after the launch of an unconventional monetary policy. At the same time the unconventional tools of monetary policy stimulate the extreme increase of the securities prices, which led to the “overheating” of the US stock market and the EU national bonds markets with the negative yield on government securities of several countries, which may become a trigger for a new global crisis in the future. The result of the analysis of monetary policy in Ukraine shows the limitations of the use of non-traditional measures for the developing countries.

scholarly journals ANALISIS DAMPAK HARGA EMAS DUNIA, HARGA MINYAK DUNIA, KURS, INDEKS HARGA KONSUMEN (IHK), DAN BI RATE TERHADAP JAKARTA ISLAMIC INDEX

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (02) ◽  
pp. 7-20
Author(s):  
Muhammad Umar Azyka Alfuadi
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Gold Price ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Economic Principle ◽  
Islamic Economic

The paper attempts to analyze the impacts of gold price, oil price, exchange rate, consumer price index, and BI rate to Jakarta Islamic Index using VAR- VECM analysis. The result shows that in long term all variables have a significant impact to JII. Gold price has negative impact to JII 4,1% and stable after 12 months, oil price has positive impact 1% and stable after 21 months, exchange rate has positive impact 3,8% and stable after 17 months, consumer price index has positive impact 0,5% and stable after 21 months, and BI rate has negative impact 6,2% and stable after 15 months. BI rate also gives the biggest impact‟s contribution into JII. This result is very contradictory with Islamic economic principle “No-Riba Oriented”.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document