EXPRESS: Learning to Set Prices
The authors empirically examine how firms learn to set prices in a new market. The 2012 privatization of off-premise liquor sales in Washington State created a unique opportunity to observe retailers learn to set prices from the point at which their learning process began. Tracking this market as it evolved through time, the authors find that firms indeed learn to set more profitable prices, that these prices increasingly reflect demand fundamentals, and they ultimately converge to levels consistent with (static) profit maximization. The paper further demonstrates that initial pricing mistakes are largest for products whose demand conditions differ the most from those of previously privatized markets, that retailers with previous experience in the category are initially better-informed, and that learning is faster for products with more precise sales information. These findings indicate that firm behavior converges to rational models of firm conduct, but also reveal that such convergence takes time to unfold and play out differently for different firms. These patterns suggest important roles for both firm learning and heterogeneous firm capabilities.