Trust in the executive

2018 ◽  
Vol 55 (5) ◽  
pp. 609-624 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Clark Durant ◽  
Michael Weintraub ◽  
Daniel Houser ◽  
Shuwen Li

Why is it so hard to get opposing elites to work together rather than to seek partisan gains and/or political survival? While the credible commitment problem is widely known, there are a number of lesser known obstacles to building trust and trustworthiness between opposing elites. This article presents an account of how some of those obstacles interact through time. Common institutional types, particularly winner-takes-all and power-sharing institutions, force trade-offs between agile responses in the short term and medium-term trust between elites, on the one hand, and between trust among elites in the medium term and the adaptability of agreements in the long term, on the other. We call this the ‘time horizon trilemma’. As an alternative approach, we consider a variant on the two-person consulate used by the Roman Republic for more than 400 years as Rome rose to prominence. In our variant, a ‘turn-taking institution’, opposing executives take short alternating turns as the ultimate decisionmaker within one term. We conduct behavioral games in the experimental lab to provide an initial estimate of the impact of these institutional types – winner-takes-all, requiring consensus only, requiring turn-taking only, or requiring both – on overcoming obstacles to agile responses in the short term, trust among elites in the medium term, and adaptability of agreements in the long term. We find that turn-taking is a promising alternative to solving the time horizon trilemma.

1995 ◽  
Vol 28 (4) ◽  
pp. 637-657 ◽  
Author(s):  
André Blais ◽  
Pierre Martin ◽  
Richard Nadeau

AbstractWhy are Quebeckers favourably disposed or opposed to sovereignty? This choice partly depends upon the prospective evaluation of the costs and benefits of sovereignty and federalism. What are the relative contributions of economic and linguistic expectations in this choice? Does the impact of these expectations vary according to the time horizon in which they are set? The authors approach these questions from the perspective of the economic theory of voting and with the help of original measures of the determinants of support for sovereignty. They compare expectations of what would occur to the economy and to the French language were Quebec to become a sovereign country with expectations of what would occur if Quebec remained a province of Canada. These measures are taken from a survey of university students. Our logistic regression analysis shows that the implicit calculation of costs and benefits plays a significant role in the choice between sovereignty and federalism, and that economic expectations influence the formation of opinion to a somewhat greater degree than do linguistic expectations. Moreover, medium-term expectations are more important than short-term economic expectations and more important than long-term expectations about the situation of the French language in Quebec.


Author(s):  
Divya Verma Gakhar ◽  
Neha Kushwaha ◽  
Vinita Ashok

This paper analyzes the impact of Union budget on NSE’s CNX NIFTY Index. The impact is measured in terms of daily average returns and volatility over the short term, medium term and long term period in pre and post budget period. The data has been collected for five budget periods from 2011 to 2015. The statistical tools used are paired T-test and F-test. Paired T-test is conducted on average returns and F-test is conducted on variances over the period i.e., 3, 10 and 30 days in pre and post budget period. The maximum impact of budget is seen in short term then it gradually decreases in medium term and finally diminishes in the long term. The implication of this paper is that the investor should fear from investing in the stock market around the budget period.


2018 ◽  
Vol 373 (1760) ◽  
pp. 20170311 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick Meir ◽  
Maurizio Mencuccini ◽  
Oliver Binks ◽  
Antonio Lola da Costa ◽  
Leandro Ferreira ◽  
...  

Are short-term responses by tropical rainforest to drought (e.g. during El Niño) sufficient to predict changes over the long-term, or from repeated drought? Using the world's only long-term (16-year) drought experiment in tropical forest we examine predictability from short-term measurements (1–2 years). Transpiration was maximized in droughted forest: it consumed all available throughfall throughout the 16 years of study. Leaf photosynthetic capacity was maintained, but only when averaged across tree size groups. Annual transpiration in droughted forest was less than in control, with initial reductions (at high biomass) imposed by foliar stomatal control. Tree mortality increased after year three, leading to an overall biomass loss of 40%; over the long-term, the main constraint on transpiration was thus imposed by the associated reduction in sapwood area. Altered tree mortality risk may prove predictable from soil and plant hydraulics, but additional monitoring is needed to test whether future biomass will stabilize or collapse. Allocation of assimilate differed over time: stem growth and reproductive output declined in the short-term, but following mortality-related changes in resource availability, both showed long-term resilience, with partial or full recovery. Understanding and simulation of these phenomena and related trade-offs in allocation will advance more effectively through greater use of optimization and probabilistic modelling approaches. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘The impact of the 2015/2016 El Niño on the terrestrial tropical carbon cycle: patterns, mechanisms and implications’.


2021 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Emmanouil M. L. Economou ◽  
Nikolaos A. Kyriazis

Abstract This paper sets out to explore the nexus between Russia and Turkey regarding their geopolitical uncertainty measures (GPR) during the Putin Administration era in Russia. The innovative Caldara and Iacoviello indices and the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) methodology are adopted. This study sheds light on the series of geopolitical events that have taken place in Russia and Turkey in recent decades. Empirical outcomes reveal that Turkish geopolitical uncertainty is a weak influencer that increases Russian GPR in the short-term while decreasing it in the medium-term. The reverse effect does not hold. The nexus between geopolitical risk in Turkey and Russia is found to be unstable. Uncertainty in Turkey constitutes both a negative and a positive determinant of geopolitical stability in Russia, depending on the time horizon of the impact. Russia could take advantage of Turkish positive effects in the medium-run. This could be alarming for investors but could also prove beneficial as they should not invest in Russian assets when the country’s geopolitical risk is elevated due to Turkey’s geopolitical instability. Additionally, it is documented that energy financial markets in Russia are not influential on geopolitical uncertainty.


2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (92) ◽  
Author(s):  

This Selected Issues paper analyzes Belgium’s fiscal stance using a structural stochastic model. This note uses a theoretical model that explicitly accounts for the trade-offs between the short-term cost of fiscal tightening and the long-term gains associated with higher fiscal buffers. This paper shows that once the current crisis is over, rebuilding fiscal buffers is essential to helping Belgium confront the next shock from a stronger fiscal position. Overall, this illustrates a major motivation for a credible medium-term fiscal consolidation strategy. When a government reduces debt, it increases its capacity to react to shocks later. This entails a short-term cost that is, in the case of Belgium, worth the effort as this capacity to smooth future shocks increases future welfare. In addition, a large capacity to react with fiscal policy reduces the risk of long-lasting effects of a large crisis. Historical data show that in the past, the Belgium government’s reaction to the cycle was limited to a single event. By contrast, if Belgium could firmly anchor public debt on a downward path, future governments would be able to offset downturns while keeping debt sustainability concerns under control.


2007 ◽  
Vol 98 (1) ◽  
pp. 106-115 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carole Delavaud ◽  
François Bocquier ◽  
René Baumont ◽  
Elodie Chaillou ◽  
Tomomi Ban-Tokuda ◽  
...  

Circulating leptin is regulated by food intake in the long, medium and short term; however, little is known about putative remnant effects of these successive regulations at any given time. To clarify this, two experiments were conducted in adult sheep, during which body condition parameters and plasma leptin were measured. During experiment 1, twenty ewes with normal body condition were either well fed (101 % of maintenance energy requirements (MER)) or underfed (41 % MER) for 166 d, then rapidly re-fed (at a mean of 208 % MER) for 3 d. Leptinaemia decreased after 14 d of underfeeding, remained depressed until day 166 and did not increase after 3 d re-feeding, whereas it was increased (+153 %;P < 0·05) by re-feeding the previously well-fed ewes. During experiment 2, twenty-four fat or lean ewes were either well fed (114 % MER) or underfed (52 % MER) for 94 d, and gradually re-fed for 2 d and maintained at a high feeding level (235 % MER) for 9 d. Underfeeding decreased leptinaemia in fat (from 4·19 to 2·63 ng/ml) but not lean ewes, and re-feeding increased leptinaemia after 5 d in lean previously well-fed (+123 %;P < 0·05) but not underfed ewes. In fat ewes, the impact of re-feeding was rapid (+144 %;P < 0·001 at 5 d) in previously well-fed ewes, whereas it was more gradual with a maximum at 11 d (+162 %;P < 0·01) in previously underfed ewes. In conclusion, leptinaemia is modulated by short-term energy intake level in interaction with long-term regulations involving nutritional history and body fatness, suggesting that a biological threshold of adiposity (about 20 %) is necessary to allow short- and medium-term leptin regulation.


Agronomy ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (12) ◽  
pp. 1987
Author(s):  
Geoffrey C. Anderson ◽  
Shahab Pathan ◽  
James Easton ◽  
David J. M. Hall ◽  
Rajesh Sharma

Soil acidity or aluminum (Al) toxicity is a major limitation to crop production. In this paper, we examine the effects of surface-applied lime and gypsum on soil profile chemical properties that affect Al toxicity in short-term (1 year), medium-term (2 years and 8 months) and long-term (10 years) experiments. Sulfate applied to the soil surface as gypsum was leached rapidly to a depth of 40 cm in the short-term despite relatively low amounts (279 mm) of rainfall. In the medium and long-term experiments, 28–54% of the sulfate applied as gypsum was retained in the 0–50 cm soil layer due to adsorption and precipitation reactions. The combined application of lime and gypsum increased soil calcium, to a depth of 30 cm in the short-term and to a depth of 50 cm in the medium and long-terms. Increases in soil sulfate and calcium were associated with greater electrical conductivity to a depth of 50 cm for all sampling times. Application of lime alone had no impact on soil Al, pH, and calcium in the soil layers below 10 cm in the short and medium terms. In the long-term, increasing the rate of lime application from 2 to 8 t L ha−1 increased soil pH in the 10–20 cm soil layer while soil Al decreased to a depth of 30 cm. The combined use of lime and gypsum decreased soil Al in the 30–50 cm soil layer in the medium-term and the 20–30 cm soil layer in the long-term which was more than when only lime was applied. Hence, we recommend the use of lime plus gypsum for treating soils with subsoil Al toxicity. Additionally, soil Al measurements are a more sensitive measurement of the impact of surface application lime and lime plus gypsum than soil pH.


Author(s):  
Andrey Meshcheryakov

The purpose of the article is to determine an objective approach to the funding of assets from various resources and to assess the impact of cash flows within a bank on its liquidity position. Methods of theoretical generalization and comparison to define an economic substance of the bank asset and liability management, a systematic approach to consider the management of assets and liabilities as interrelated elements of a single system; the method of analysis and synthesis to study liquidity indicators, the method of tabular presentation of data, and the abstract-logical method to substantiate theoretical generalizations and conclusions were used. The issue of maintaining liquidity during the global downturn requires priority attention from the management and analytical service. Central banks of all countries in the world establish, maintain strict control and regulate various indicators of bank liquidity, trying to avoid a banking crisis, since the bankruptcy of one or several banks may lead to destruction of the payment system and cause major problems in the economy. Most modern banks which are focused on long-term activities, when resolving “profitability – liquidity” dilemma, give preference to ensuring a sufficient level of liquidity even in the face of a possible loss of certain income. Despite constant changes and improvements in the liquidity ratio system, modern banks mainly use accounting data for the liquidity ratio calculation disregarding the analysis of the bank’s cash flows which should be carried out in accordance with the basic principles of financial management, the principle of comparing asset-liability maturities and risk levels in particular. Our view is that in analyzing all banking standards and ratios, not only the ratios of various assets and liabilities should be calculated based on the bank’s balance sheet data, but also the sources of formation of certain assets from various resources should be taken into account. In our opinion, it is extremely important to have regard to the situation when the bank’s short-term liabilities (liabilities at call) form its long-term and medium-term requirements. In order to find out an actual situation with the bank’s liquidity position, we should analyze which short-term liabilities were used to form its loan and securities portfolios, as well as other risky and long-term assets. In our opinion, this can be done by making the following adjustments: 1. To reduce the amount of liquid assets by the amount of liabilities at call placed in risky assets. This approach is based on the fact that liabilities at call, which can be withdrawn at any time, are not liquid. In a situation when it is required to make urgent payments, there will be a need for urgent borrowing of additional funds. This may either be difficult to do, or it may be done at an unfavorable interest rate. 2. To increase the amount of short-term liabilities by the amount of that part thereof that was used to form long- and medium-term requirements. This will also reduce the liquidity ratio, but provide the necessary information about its actual level, taking into account the risk formation of the bank’s asset portfolio. An absolute liquidity ratio calculated using the balance sheet data was 63%. When it was adjusted assuming that the bank’s liabilities at call were placed in medium and long-term assets, a decrease by 35% was obtained after reducing the amount of liquid assets, and this figure was decreased by 20% when the amount of short-term liabilities was increased in the calculation. In order to find out an actual situation with the bank’s liquidity position, it is proposed to reduce the amount of liquid assets by the amount of liabilities at call placed in risky assets, or increase the amount of short-term liabilities by the amount of that part thereof that was used to form long- and medium-term requirements.


2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (07) ◽  
pp. 1850059 ◽  
Author(s):  
YANHUI JIANG ◽  
CHONGYANG WEI ◽  
ZHI YANG ◽  
ULAGANATHAN SUBRAMANIAN

Setting the research background in China, this study draws on absorptive capacity, knowledge inertia and prospect theory to show the relationship between R&D capability and innovation performance which comprises exploitation and exploration. We propose that stronger R&D capability promotes exploitation performance but inhibits exploration performance. As exploitation represents immediate interest and exploration represents long-term interest, we introduce the notion of knowledge boundary spanning of R&D network to balance short-term and long-term benefits. The empirical results show that R&D capability and knowledge boundary spanning of R&D network complement each other for explorative innovation while they present trade-offs for exploitative innovation. This study contributes to existing literature on R&D capability–innovation performance, and it further extends our understanding by investigating the impact of knowledge boundary spanning of R&D network on the R&D capacity–innovation performance relationships. In addition, this study provides references on resources configuration to achieve different innovation strategies.


Psibernetika ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Devina Calista ◽  
Garvin Garvin

<p><em>Child abuse by parents is common in households. The impact of violence on children will bring short-term effects and long-term effects that can be attributed to their various emotional, behavioral and social problems in the future; especially in late adolescence that will enter adulthood. Resilience factors increase the likelihood that adolescents who are victims of childhood violence recover from their past experiences</em><em>,</em><em> become more powerful individuals and have a better life. The purpose of this study was to determine the source of resilience in late adolescents who experienced violence from parents in their childhood. This research uses qualitative research methods with in-depth interviews as a method of data collection. The result shows that the three research participants have the aspects of "I Have", "I Am", and "I Can"; a participant has "I Can" aspects as a source of resilience, and one other subject has no source of resilience. The study concluded that parental affection and acceptance of the past experience have role to the three sources of resilience (I Have, I Am, and I Can)</em></p><p><em> </em></p><p><strong><em>Keyword : </em></strong><em>Resilience, adolescence, violence, parents</em></p>


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