Spillovers Between Russia’s and Turkey’s Geopolitical Risk During the 2000–2021 Putin Administration

2021 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Emmanouil M. L. Economou ◽  
Nikolaos A. Kyriazis
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Time Horizon ◽  
Reverse Effect ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Uncertainty Measures ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Positive Determinant

Abstract This paper sets out to explore the nexus between Russia and Turkey regarding their geopolitical uncertainty measures (GPR) during the Putin Administration era in Russia. The innovative Caldara and Iacoviello indices and the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) methodology are adopted. This study sheds light on the series of geopolitical events that have taken place in Russia and Turkey in recent decades. Empirical outcomes reveal that Turkish geopolitical uncertainty is a weak influencer that increases Russian GPR in the short-term while decreasing it in the medium-term. The reverse effect does not hold. The nexus between geopolitical risk in Turkey and Russia is found to be unstable. Uncertainty in Turkey constitutes both a negative and a positive determinant of geopolitical stability in Russia, depending on the time horizon of the impact. Russia could take advantage of Turkish positive effects in the medium-run. This could be alarming for investors but could also prove beneficial as they should not invest in Russian assets when the country’s geopolitical risk is elevated due to Turkey’s geopolitical instability. Additionally, it is documented that energy financial markets in Russia are not influential on geopolitical uncertainty.

Trust in the executive

2018 ◽  
Vol 55 (5) ◽  
pp. 609-624 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Clark Durant ◽  
Michael Weintraub ◽  
Daniel Houser ◽  
Shuwen Li
Keyword(s):  
Time Horizon ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Promising Alternative ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Turn Taking ◽  
Institutional Types ◽  
Winner Takes All ◽  
The Impact

Why is it so hard to get opposing elites to work together rather than to seek partisan gains and/or political survival? While the credible commitment problem is widely known, there are a number of lesser known obstacles to building trust and trustworthiness between opposing elites. This article presents an account of how some of those obstacles interact through time. Common institutional types, particularly winner-takes-all and power-sharing institutions, force trade-offs between agile responses in the short term and medium-term trust between elites, on the one hand, and between trust among elites in the medium term and the adaptability of agreements in the long term, on the other. We call this the ‘time horizon trilemma’. As an alternative approach, we consider a variant on the two-person consulate used by the Roman Republic for more than 400 years as Rome rose to prominence. In our variant, a ‘turn-taking institution’, opposing executives take short alternating turns as the ultimate decisionmaker within one term. We conduct behavioral games in the experimental lab to provide an initial estimate of the impact of these institutional types – winner-takes-all, requiring consensus only, requiring turn-taking only, or requiring both – on overcoming obstacles to agile responses in the short term, trust among elites in the medium term, and adaptability of agreements in the long term. We find that turn-taking is a promising alternative to solving the time horizon trilemma.

Attentes économiques et linguistiques et appui à la souveraineté du Québec: une analyse prospective et comparative

1995 ◽  
Vol 28 (4) ◽  
pp. 637-657 ◽  
Author(s):  
André Blais ◽  
Pierre Martin ◽  
Richard Nadeau
Keyword(s):  
Economic Theory ◽  
Time Horizon ◽  
French Language ◽  
Prospective Evaluation ◽  
Costs And Benefits ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Economic Expectations ◽  
The Impact

AbstractWhy are Quebeckers favourably disposed or opposed to sovereignty? This choice partly depends upon the prospective evaluation of the costs and benefits of sovereignty and federalism. What are the relative contributions of economic and linguistic expectations in this choice? Does the impact of these expectations vary according to the time horizon in which they are set? The authors approach these questions from the perspective of the economic theory of voting and with the help of original measures of the determinants of support for sovereignty. They compare expectations of what would occur to the economy and to the French language were Quebec to become a sovereign country with expectations of what would occur if Quebec remained a province of Canada. These measures are taken from a survey of university students. Our logistic regression analysis shows that the implicit calculation of costs and benefits plays a significant role in the choice between sovereignty and federalism, and that economic expectations influence the formation of opinion to a somewhat greater degree than do linguistic expectations. Moreover, medium-term expectations are more important than short-term economic expectations and more important than long-term expectations about the situation of the French language in Quebec.

scholarly journals Paleolithic Diet—Effect on the Health Status and Performance of Athletes?

Nutrients ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 1019
Author(s):  
Barbara Frączek ◽  
Aleksandra Pięta ◽  
Adrian Burda ◽  
Paulina Mazur-Kurach ◽  
Florentyna Tyrała
Keyword(s):  
Blood Pressure ◽  
Body Mass ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Model Assessment ◽  
Paleolithic Diet ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
The Impact

The aim of this meta-analysis was to review the impact of a Paleolithic diet (PD) on selected health indicators (body composition, lipid profile, blood pressure, and carbohydrate metabolism) in the short and long term of nutrition intervention in healthy and unhealthy adults. A systematic review of randomized controlled trials of 21 full-text original human studies was conducted. Both the PD and a variety of healthy diets (control diets (CDs)) caused reduction in anthropometric parameters, both in the short and long term. For many indicators, such as weight (body mass (BM)), body mass index (BMI), and waist circumference (WC), impact was stronger and especially found in the short term. All diets caused a decrease in total cholesterol (TC), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), and triglycerides (TG), albeit the impact of PD was stronger. Among long-term studies, only PD cased a decline in TC and LDL-C. Impact on blood pressure was observed mainly in the short term. PD caused a decrease in fasting plasma (fP) glucose, fP insulin, and homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) and glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) in the short run, contrary to CD. In the long term, only PD caused a decrease in fP glucose and fP insulin. Lower positive impact of PD on performance was observed in the group without exercise. Positive effects of the PD on health and the lack of experiments among professional athletes require longer-term interventions to determine the effect of the Paleo diet on athletic performance.

scholarly journals On the Asymmetries of Sovereign Credit Rating Announcements and Financial Market Development in the European Region

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (23) ◽  
pp. 6636 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chunling Li ◽  
Khansa Pervaiz ◽  
Muhammad Asif Khan ◽  
Faheem Ur Rehman ◽  
Judit Oláh
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Credit Rating ◽  
Market Development ◽  
European Region ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Sovereign Credit ◽  
Financial Market Development ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Sovereign Credit Rating

In modeling the impact of sovereign credit rating (CR) on financial markets, a considerable amount of the literature to date has been devoted to examining the short-term impact of CR on financial markets via an event-study methodology. The argument has been established that financial markets are sensitive to CR announcements, and market reactions to such announcements (both upgrading and degrading) are not the same. Using the framework of an autoregressive distributed lag setting, the present study attempted to empirically test the linear and non-linear impacts of CR on financial market development (FMD) in the European region. Nonlinear specification is capable to capture asymmetries (upgrades and downgrades) in the estimation process, which have not been considered to date in financial market literature. Overall findings identified long-term asymmetries, while there was little evidence supporting the existence of short-term asymmetries. Thus, the present study has extended the financial market literature on the subject of the asymmetrical impact of a sovereign CR on European FMD and provides useful input for policy formation taking into account these nonlinearities. Policies solely based upon linear models may be misleading and detrimental.

Performance Funding Policy Effects on Community College Outcomes: Are Short-Term Certificates on the Rise?

2017 ◽  
Vol 46 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-39 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amy Y. Li ◽  
Alec I. Kennedy
Keyword(s):  
Postsecondary Education ◽  
Performance Metrics ◽  
State Level ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Performance Funding ◽  
Funding Policy ◽  
Level Control ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Impact

Objective: Performance funding (PF) policies allocate a portion of state funding to colleges based on student outcomes. This study is the first to account for policy type and design differences, and explores the impact of performance funding on three levels of credential completions: short-term certificates, medium-term certificates, and associate’s degrees. Method: We create a panel dataset of 751 two-year colleges from years 1990 to 2013 using data from the Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System. We conduct a series of analyses using difference-in-differences with the inclusion of college- and state-level control variables. Results: We find that, on average, performance funding produces no significant changes in completions of any of the three credentials. Policy types characterized by a greater proportion of funding tied to the base budget, mission differentiation in performance metrics, inclusion of underrepresented student metrics, and longer periods of operating years produce an increase in short-term certificates, no significant change in medium-term certificates, and a decrease in associate’s degrees. Contributions: This study’s findings suggest that because awarding more short-term certificates is a relatively quick and cost-effective way to capture performance funds, colleges might be engaging in a path of least resistance by churning out short-term certificates and redirecting focus away from associate’s degrees, which is concerning given that short-term certificates generally offer limited labor market benefits compared to medium-term certificates and associate’s degrees. Our results also underscore the importance of policy designs in explaining differential impacts on credential completion.

scholarly journals The Impact of Government Debt Issuance on Short-Term interest rates in Indonesia

2009 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 301
Author(s):  
Sri Adiningsih
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Government Debt ◽  
Crowding Out ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Impact

This paper analyzes whether the expansionary fiscal policy funded by issuing debt instruments in financial markets will increase short-term interest rates. If  the expansionary fiscal policy increases interest rates, which decrease private spending especially investment, crowding out occurs. This is interesting because global economic crisis has encouraged many countries to run large budget deficits to stimulate the economy. Indonesia has also run budget deficit during this crisis and even in years before. The impact of such a policy can be significant because Indonesia’s debt market is still narrow and shallow. Therefore, its capability of absorbing the government debt instruments without influencing the private sector funding is limited. This study tests whether the crowding out occurs in Indonesia using a time series econometric model inspired by Cebula and Cuellar’s model. The Cointegration Regression and Error Correction Model (ECM) are used in this study. Monthly data from April 2000 to December 2008 are used for overnight real interbank call money interest rates, real net government bond issues in trading, real narrow money supply, real rate of one-month Certificate of Bank Indonesia, growth of Gross Domestic Product, and real net international capital flows. This empirical study shows that the crowding out problem occurred in Indonesia during the period. This indicates that financing budget deficit in Indonesia by issuing debt instruments in the financial markets has a negative impact on the private sector.

scholarly journals In This World: Baptist and Methodist Churches in New Zealand 1948 to 1988

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Elaine Elizabeth Bolitho
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Social Action ◽  
Extensive Reading ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Charismatic Movement ◽  
Baptist Churches ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Major Factors ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Evangelical Theology

<p>New Zealand Baptist and Methodist Churches' growth and decline between 1948 and 1988 was caused by the manner of their involvement in this world, in their roles of experiencing and telling about God in word and action. These roles link with the three factors - secularisation, evangelical theology and practice and the Charismatic movement. The roles and factors are encompassed within the context of change and discontinuity. 1. The impact of secularisation showed in declining religious profession and membership, yet also in greater involvement in this world through experiencing God immanent within it. 2. Commitment to evangelical theology and practice led to short term Baptist success, but in the long term triggered membership losses. Methodists without this emphasis showed even greater membership decline. 3. The Charismatic movement which was initially divisive holds within it potential for experiencing God in this world, and for dynamic continuity to make sense of the changing world scene. The relationship of the context of change to the three major factors was that the greater the degree of responding to discontinuity with creative dynamic continuity, the greater the growth of the churches. Increasing the degree of static continuity induced decline. The absence of any form of continuity resulted in even greater decline. The Baptist Churches successfully increased membership through relating well to the post-war generation. Through social service and outreach ministries they became more involved in this world. Evangelism, through a variety of methods, provided continuity in sharing the God news. The Charismatic movement as catalyst for church change in times of societal change brought the potential, through emphases of servant theology, to channel God experience into relational outreach. This led to its meshing with the positive effects of secularisation and evangelism. Methodist church growth was restricted by suspicion of the Charismatic movement, loss of evangelical focuses and recruitment programmes. Social action continued to be the Methodist way of being involved in this world. Profiles completed by 200 Baptist and 168 Methodist churches demonstrated the interplay of these factors. These were complemented by surveys completed by 106 resigned ministers, over 170 interviews, 6 case studies, 46 church visits and extensive reading. Analysis of profiles and membership statistics showed that Baptist churches did not do better because of short term ministries, Pastoral terms, membership and evangelical theology. But without evangelical theology and practice Methodist membership declined more. For every 12 members welcomed Baptists would lose 8 and Methodists 15. This indicated that churches not retaining members and clergy needed a balance of evangelism and whole-of-life theology with longer term focuses to provide dynamic continuity in the discontinuity of life.</p>

scholarly journals The impact of direct and indirect taxes on economic growth: An empirical analysis related to Romania

2018 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 114-127 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ramona - Mihaela Bâzgan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Econometric Model ◽  
Positive Influence ◽  
Positive Change ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Indirect Taxes ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The purpose of this paper involved studying the impact of direct taxes and indirect taxes on the economic growth using an econometric Vector Autoregressive model (VAR) based on the statistical data related to Romania over the period of time 2009 (2nd quarter)-2017 (2nd quarter). Fiscal policy system involved a significant impact on the evolution of economic growth in the recent years in Romania, namely the years taken into consideration for this study. The econometric model used three endogenous variables, namely the level of direct taxes as percent of the Gross Domestic Product (%GDP), the level of indirect taxes as percent of the Gross Domestic Product (%GDP) and the economic growth rate over the analysed period of time. According to the econometric model presented in this paper, it was proved that a positive change in the structure of indirect taxes will have a strong positive influence on the economic growth over a medium-term period. On the other hand, economic growth will be negatively influenced in the next period of time after implementing a positive change in the structure of direct taxes, then returning to a positive influence over a medium term period and maintaining that influence in the future time periods.

scholarly journals Effects of Self-Talk Training on Competitive Anxiety, Self-Efficacy, Volitional Skills, and Performance: An Intervention Study with Junior Sub-Elite Athletes

Sports ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (6) ◽  
pp. 148 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nadja Walter ◽  
Lucie Nikoleizig ◽  
Dorothee Alfermann
Keyword(s):  
Self Efficacy ◽  
Elite Athletes ◽  
Control Group ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Competitive Anxiety ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Self Talk ◽  
And Performance ◽  
The Impact

(1) Background: Self-talk (ST) is used to influence athletes’ thoughts, feelings, and behaviors. Samples of squad and competitive athletes are underrepresented, although research has proven the positive effects of ST in the context of sports. Thus, the present study focused on the impact of ST on psychological and performance outcomes of junior sub-elite athletes. (2) Methods: N = 117 athletes (55 females, 62 males; M = 16.0 years) were randomly assigned to either one of two experimental groups or to a control group (n = 30). The experimental groups received an ST intervention for either one week (n = 36) or eight weeks (n = 38), and the control group received no ST training. The dependent variables (competitive anxiety, volitional skills, self-efficacy, and coaches’ performance ratings) were assessed three times before and after the intervention. It was expected that (a) an ST intervention would reduce the competitive anxiety and increase volitional skills, self-efficacy, and performance; and, (b) long-term training would lead to higher effects than short-term training. (3) Results: As expected, ST training led to (less) somatic state anxiety and (higher) state self-confidence, self-optimization, self-efficacy, and performance. Additionally, long-term training was more effective than short-term training. (4) Conclusions: Targeted ST interventions may help to improve junior athletes’ psychological states and performance.

scholarly journals Assessing the Impact of Disruptive Events on Port Performance and Choice: The Case of Gothenburg

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 145
Author(s):  
Martin Svanberg ◽  
Henrik Holm ◽  
Kevin Cullinane
Keyword(s):  
Performance Metrics ◽  
Automatic Identification ◽  
Identification System ◽  
Container Port ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Labour Dispute ◽  
Container Ports ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

This paper assesses the impact of a major disruptive event at the port of Gothenburg, Scandinavia’s largest container port. Automatic Identification System (AIS) data is analyzed, in combination with official port statistics on container handling in the four main container ports in Sweden, from 2014–2018. Particular attention is paid to the relationship between container volumes handled and calculated performance metrics at the specific times of the intense labour dispute at the port of Gothenburg during the periods Q2 (2016) and Q4 (2016)–Q2 (2017). The paper concludes that the decline in container volumes handled at Gothenburg over the period is specifically due to fewer ships calling at the port following each of the intense periods of the labour dispute. It is also concluded that the effect on competitor ports in the region were significant in terms of both increased volumes of gateway container traffic and the resulting short-term and medium term impacts on both port user profiles and port efficiency levels.

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