Chapter II. The World Economy

1987 ◽  
Vol 119 ◽  
pp. 24-39
Author(s):  
Simon Wren-Lewis ◽  
Fiona Eastwood
Keyword(s):  
World Economy ◽  
Econometric Model ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
Econometric Evidence ◽  
World Economic ◽  
First Time ◽  
Economic Outlook

Beginning with this Review, the World Economy chapter contains a number of changes in format and content. The first half of the chapter presents the main forecast, which for the first time is produced with the aid of a quarterly econometric model, GEM. The second half of the chapter will be devoted to one or more topical issues concerning the world economic outlook, using analysis based on econometric evidence or model simulations. In this Review we look at the prospects for the US current balance. An appendix briefly outlines the structure of GEM.

Introducing Exchange-Rate Equations Into a World Econometric Model

1987 ◽  
Vol 119 ◽  
pp. 57-67 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simon Wren-Lewis
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Econometric Model ◽  
Rate Equations ◽  
Rate System ◽  
The World ◽  
Exchange Rate System ◽  
World Economic ◽  
First Time ◽  
Economic Forecasts

In this Review the Institute's world economic forecasts are for the first time produced with the aid of a large quarterly econometric model. The general features of this model are described in an Appendix to the World Economy chapter in this Review. The model is based on the WEP (World Economic Prospects) model which has been operated and developed by economists in HM Treasury for more than a decade. However, exchange rates in WEP are exogenous, and this article discusses the estimation of an exchange-rate system for the model, and its implications in terms of overall model properties.

The World Economy

1997 ◽  
Vol 159 ◽  
pp. 28-56
Author(s):  
Julian Morgan ◽  
Nigel Pain ◽  
Florence Hubert
Keyword(s):  
World Trade ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Fiscal Consolidation ◽  
The Third ◽  
The North ◽  
External Demand ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
World Economic ◽  
The Uk

There are now widespread signs that activity in the world economy has begun to recover steadily from the pause in growth apparent at the beginning of 1996. Output rose by 0.6 per cent in the North American economies in the third quarter of last year and by 0.8 per cent in Europe. Business and consumer sentiment has improved gradually in recent months in most of the major economies. We expect world economic growth to pick up further over the course of this year as the contractionary effects from the downturn in world trade and prolonged inventory adjustment come to an end and as the effects from a more relaxed monetary stance begin to outweigh those from ongoing fiscal consolidation. Recent currency movements should help to stimulate external demand in Germany, France and Japan, but may act to constrain growth within the UK, Italy and the US. For both this year and 1998 we expect growth of around 2½ per cent per annum in the OECD economies.

scholarly journals Foreign trade of Russia: trends at the stage of the general crisis (2020)

2021 ◽  
pp. 11-19
Author(s):  
I.S. Gladkov ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Trade ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Trade Relations ◽  
Energy Group ◽  
Russian Scientific ◽  
The World ◽  
Trade Turnover ◽  
World Economic ◽  
Foreign Trade Turnover ◽  
First Time

The author examines new trends in the dynamics of foreign trade relations of Russia during the pandemic of 2020, which played a kind of «black swan» in relation to the world economic evolution: the processes of turbulence, which increased in the previous period of development of the world economy and modern international trade, continued in the mechanisms of deployment of a global crisis in 2020 in the context of the introduction of a full lockdown in many countries; this was reflected in the downward trend in prices for fuel and energy group goods, which are very important for domestic exports. The article shows the shifts in Russia’s foreign trade turnover provoked by the crisis. The study used the methodology of comparative and statistical analysis based on the latest statistical materials, as well as a number of official calculations, introduced into the Russian scientific turnover for the first time.

Chapter II. The World Economy

1979 ◽  
Vol 89 ◽  
pp. 24-37
Keyword(s):  
World Economy ◽  
The World ◽  
World Economic ◽  
Economic Outlook

The world economic outlook continues, in the eyes of most observers, to be dominated by the oil situation. It is clear that in May we were over-optimistic as regards both shortages and prices. Nevertheless some of the gloom that has been generated still seems to us rather excessive.

The world economy

2000 ◽  
Vol 172 ◽  
pp. 3-3
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Japanese Economy ◽  
List Type ◽  
European Central ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
Global Economic Growth ◽  
First Time

•The world economy will experience a synchronised upturn for the first time since 1994, with growth accelerating in 2000 in all the major regions.•Despite global economic growth of over 4 per cent in 2000, inflation will remain under control at 2 per cent in the OECD area.•The US economy will expand by 4.5 per cent, spurring the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates to 7 per cent by the beginning of next year.•The euro zone will grow by 3.4 per cent, prompting the European Central Bank to raise interest rates to 4 per cent by the end of 2000 and 4.5 per cent in 2001.•Although the Japanese economy has technically slipped back into recession, we expect growth of 1 per cent in 2000, strengthening to 2.4 per cent in 2001.

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