Introducing Exchange-Rate Equations Into a World Econometric Model

1987 ◽  
Vol 119 ◽  
pp. 57-67 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simon Wren-Lewis
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Econometric Model ◽  
Rate Equations ◽  
Rate System ◽  
The World ◽  
Exchange Rate System ◽  
World Economic ◽  
First Time ◽  
Economic Forecasts

In this Review the Institute's world economic forecasts are for the first time produced with the aid of a large quarterly econometric model. The general features of this model are described in an Appendix to the World Economy chapter in this Review. The model is based on the WEP (World Economic Prospects) model which has been operated and developed by economists in HM Treasury for more than a decade. However, exchange rates in WEP are exogenous, and this article discusses the estimation of an exchange-rate system for the model, and its implications in terms of overall model properties.

Chapter II. The World Economy

1987 ◽  
Vol 119 ◽  
pp. 24-39
Author(s):  
Simon Wren-Lewis ◽  
Fiona Eastwood
Keyword(s):  
World Economy ◽  
Econometric Model ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
Econometric Evidence ◽  
World Economic ◽  
First Time ◽  
Economic Outlook

Beginning with this Review, the World Economy chapter contains a number of changes in format and content. The first half of the chapter presents the main forecast, which for the first time is produced with the aid of a quarterly econometric model, GEM. The second half of the chapter will be devoted to one or more topical issues concerning the world economic outlook, using analysis based on econometric evidence or model simulations. In this Review we look at the prospects for the US current balance. An appendix briefly outlines the structure of GEM.

scholarly journals Foreign trade of Russia: trends at the stage of the general crisis (2020)

2021 ◽  
pp. 11-19
Author(s):  
I.S. Gladkov ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Trade ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Trade Relations ◽  
Energy Group ◽  
Russian Scientific ◽  
The World ◽  
Trade Turnover ◽  
World Economic ◽  
Foreign Trade Turnover ◽  
First Time

The author examines new trends in the dynamics of foreign trade relations of Russia during the pandemic of 2020, which played a kind of «black swan» in relation to the world economic evolution: the processes of turbulence, which increased in the previous period of development of the world economy and modern international trade, continued in the mechanisms of deployment of a global crisis in 2020 in the context of the introduction of a full lockdown in many countries; this was reflected in the downward trend in prices for fuel and energy group goods, which are very important for domestic exports. The article shows the shifts in Russia’s foreign trade turnover provoked by the crisis. The study used the methodology of comparative and statistical analysis based on the latest statistical materials, as well as a number of official calculations, introduced into the Russian scientific turnover for the first time.

The International Monetary Fund in the 1990s

1992 ◽  
Vol 27 (3) ◽  
pp. 267-282 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. D. Crockett
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rates ◽  
International Monetary Fund ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Economic Management ◽  
Rate System ◽  
The World ◽  
Exchange Rate System ◽  
National Economies ◽  
The International Monetary Fund ◽  
Trade And Investment

WHEN ITS ARTICLES OF AGREEMENT WERE DRAWN UP IN 1944, the International Monetary Fund was seen as having two main functions: to oversee the operation of a system of fixed, but adjustable, exchange rates; and to promote the removal of payments restrictions on international trade. Over the years since then, despite the demise of the fixed exchange rate system and a steady decline in payments restrictions, the scope of the Fund's influence has grown. Why should this be?In broad terms, the answer is to be found in the increasing integration of the world economy. As trade and investment flows have grown, so too have the concerns of the international community for good economic management in individual national economies. ‘Spill-over’ effects have grown in size and importance, and with them the need for a framework to regulate their consequences.

scholarly journals THE STRUCTURE OF GLOBAL MONEY and World Tables of Unequal Exchange

1998 ◽  
pp. 145-168 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gernot Kohler
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
High Wage ◽  
Rate System ◽  
Literature Reference ◽  
Unequal Exchange ◽  
Global View ◽  
The World ◽  
Exchange Rate System ◽  
Value Of Money

This study takes a global view of money. The term "global money" is appearing in recent discussions (Bellofiore 1997) and there is the occasional literature reference to "world money" (Marx 1992: 190). My thesis in this article is that money has a global structure. Stated more precisely, I am contending that (1) the value of money is non-homogeneous throughout the world system (even after exchange rates have been taken into account); that (2) the currencies of low-incomc countries tend to be undervalued, not overvalued as many economists claim; that (3) the exchange rate system is one of the mechanisms by which high-wage countries extract value from low-wage countries; and that ( 4) this situation contributes significantly to unequal exchange between periphery and center countries.

The world and Russia: Inflation is minimal, economic growth is slowing, risks are rising

2019 ◽  
pp. 5-23 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mikhail V. Ershov ◽  
Anna S. Tanasova
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
New Combination ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
The World ◽  
World Economic ◽  
Money Creation ◽  
Main Factors

Russian economy has reached the low level of inflation, but economic growth has not accelerated. Moreover, according to official forecasts, in the following years it will still be low. The article concludes that domestic demand, which is one of the main factors of growth, is significantly constrained by monetary, budgetary and fiscal spheres. The situation in the Russian economy is still hampered by the decline of the world economic growth. The prospects of financial markets are highly uncertain. This increases the possibility of crisis in the world. Leading countries widely use non-traditional measures to support their economies in the similar environment. In the world economy as well as in Russia a principally new combination of factors has emerged, which create specific features of economic growth. It requires special set of measures to stimulate such growth. The article proves that Russian regulators have large unused potential to stimulate growth. It includes monetization, long-money creation, budget and tax stimuli. It is important that the instruments, which will be used, should be based on domestic mechanisms. This will strengthen financial basis of the economy and may encourage economic growth. Some specific suggestions as to their use are made.

The World Economy through the Lens of the United Nations

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
World War Ii ◽  
United Nations ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Social Conditions ◽  
Policy Recommendations ◽  
The Past ◽  
The World ◽  
World Economic ◽  
The United Nations

This volume documents the intellectual influence of the United Nations through its flagship publication, the World Economic and Social Survey (WESS) on its seventieth anniversary. Prepared at the Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) and first published in 1948 as the World Economic Report (subsequently renamed the WESS), it is the oldest continuous post-World War II publication of this kind, recording and analysing the performance of the global economy and social development trends, and offering relevant policy recommendations. This volume highlights how well WESS has tracked global economic and social conditions, and how its analyses have influenced and have been influenced by the prevailing discourse over the past seven decades. The volume critically reflects on its policy recommendations and their influence on actual policymaking and the shaping of the world economy. Although world economic and social conditions have changed significantly over the past seven decades and so have the policy recommendations of the Survey, some of its earlier recommendations remain relevant today; recommendations in WESS provided seven decades ago seem remarkably pertinent as the world currently struggles to regain high levels of employment and economic activity. Thus, in many ways, WESS was ahead of the curve on many substantive issues. Publication of this volume will enhance the interest of the wider community of policymakers, academics, development practitioners, and members of civil society in the analytical work of the UN in general and UN-DESA in particular.

Arrighi’s Theory of systemic cycles of capital accumulation as a mechanism of cyclical development of the Global Economy

2021 ◽  
pp. 966-981
Author(s):  
Sergey Gennadyevich Kapkanshchikov
Keyword(s):  
Capital Accumulation ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Global Analysis ◽  
Methodological Approach ◽  
The United States ◽  
State Regulation ◽  
Economic Order ◽  
The World ◽  
World Economic ◽  
World Economic Order

The article uses the methodology of systemic global analysis and the theory of systemic cycles of capital accumulation to argue that we are now at a turning point of the modern era in connection with the unfolding change in the dominant world economic order. Based on the methodological approach, within the framework of which there is a hegemonic country and the rest of the world, the forecast regarding the forthcoming multipolarity of the world economy is rejected. Various stages of capital and financial expansion with their inherent, respectively, dirigistic and liberal models of state regulation of the economy are compared to each other. A chronological overview of the Spanish-Genoese, Dutch, British, American and Asian accumulation cycles is presented. The patterns of their change in the course of the formation of new technological structures are revealed. The place of Russia in the process of natural evolution of world economic structures is also identified. The objective and subjective reasons for the longterm hegemony of the United States, as well as factors of the upcoming completion of the American cycle of capital accumulation in the foreseeable future, are revealed. The author outlines the tactics employed by the American authorities to counteract the objective hegemonic cycles. The reasons for the movement of the center of the world economy to the East Asian region are revealed, with the justification of the need for a natural inclusion of Russia in the functioning of the Asian world economic order.

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