Accuracy of Medical Examiner’s Assessment for Near–Real-Time Surveillance of Fatal Drug Overdoses, King County, Washington, March 2017–February 2018

2021 ◽  
pp. 003335492110084
Author(s):  
Kirsten Vannice ◽  
Julia Hood ◽  
Nicole Yarid ◽  
Meagan Kay ◽  
Richard Harruff ◽  
...  

Objectives Up-to-date information on the occurrence of drug overdose is critical to guide public health response. The objective of our study was to evaluate a near–real-time fatal drug overdose surveillance system to improve timeliness of drug overdose monitoring. Methods We analyzed data on deaths in the King County (Washington) Medical Examiner’s Office (KCMEO) jurisdiction that occurred during March 1, 2017–February 28, 2018, and that had routine toxicology test results. Medical examiners (MEs) classified probable drug overdoses on the basis of information obtained through the death investigation and autopsy. We calculated sensitivity, positive predictive value, specificity, and negative predictive value of MEs’ classification by using the final death certificate as the gold standard. Results KCMEO investigated 2480 deaths; 1389 underwent routine toxicology testing, and 361 were toxicologically confirmed drug overdoses from opioid, stimulant, or euphoric drugs. Sensitivity of the probable overdose classification was 83%, positive predictive value was 89%, specificity was 96%, and negative predictive value was 94%. Probable overdoses were classified a median of 1 day after the event, whereas the final death certificate confirming an overdose was received by KCMEO an average of 63 days after the event. Conclusions King County MEs’ probable overdose classification provides a near–real-time indicator of fatal drug overdoses, which can guide rapid local public health responses to the drug overdose epidemic.

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Emery Shekiro ◽  
Lily Sussman ◽  
Talia Brown

Objective: In order to better describe local drug-related overdoses, we developed a novel syndromic case definition using discharge diagnosis codes from emergency department data in the Colorado North Central Region (CO-NCR). Secondarily, we used free text fields to understand the use of unspecified diagnosis fields.Introduction: The United States is in the midst of a drug crisis; drug-related overdoses are the leading cause of unintentional death in the country. In Colorado the rate of fatal drug overdose increased 68% from 2002-2014 (9.7 deaths per 100,000 to 16.3 per 100,000, respectively)1, and non-fatal overdose also increased during this time period (23% increase in emergency department visits since 2011)2. The CDC’s National Syndromic Surveillance Program (NSSP) provides near-real time monitoring of emergency department (ED) events across the country, with information uploaded daily on patient demographics, chief complaint for visit, diagnosis codes, triage notes, and more. Colorado North Central Region (CO-NCR) receives data for 4 local public health agencies from 25 hospitals across Adams, Arapahoe, Boulder, Denver, Douglas, and Jefferson Counties.Access to local syndromic data in near-real time provides valuable information for local public health program planning, policy, and evaluation efforts. However, use of these data also comes with many challenges. For example, we learned from key informant interviews with ED staff in Boulder and Denver counties, about concern with the accuracy and specificity of drug-related diagnosis codes, specifically for opioid-related overdoses.Methods: Boulder County Public Health (BCPH) and Denver Public Health (DPH) developed a query in Early Notification of Community Based Epidemics (ESSENCE) using ICD-10-CM codes to identify cases of drug-related overdose [T36-T51] from October 2016 to September 2017. The Case definition included unintentional, self-harm, assault and undetermined poisonings, but did not include cases coded as adverse effects or underdosing of medication. Cases identified in the query were stratified by demographic factors (i.e., gender and age) and substance used in poisoning. The first diagnosis code in the file was considered the primary diagnosis. Chief complaint and triage note fields were examined to further describe unspecified cases and to describe how patients present to emergency departments in the CO-NCR. We also explored whether detection of drug overdose visits captured by discharge diagnosis data varied by patient sex, age, or county.Results: The query identified 2,366 drug-related overdoses in the CO-NCR. The prevalence of drug overdoses differed across age groups. The detection of drug overdoses was highest among our youth and young adult populations; 16 to 20 year olds (16.0%), 21-25 year olds (11.4%), 26-30 year olds (11.4%). Females comprised 56.1% of probable general drug overdoses. The majority of primary diagnoses (31.0%) included poisonings related to diuretics and other unspecified drugs (T50), narcotics (T40) (12.6%), or non-opioid analgesics (T39) (7.8%). For some cases with unspecified drug overdose codes there was additional information about drugs used and narcan administration found in the triage notes and chief complaint fields.Conclusions: Syndromic surveillance offers the opportunity to capture drug-related overdose data in near-real time. We found variation in drug-related overdose by demographic groups. Unspecified drug overdose codes are extremely common, which likely negatively impacts the quality of drug-specific surveillance. Leveraging chief complaint and triage notes could improve our understanding of factors involved in drug-related overdose with limitations in discharge diagnosis. Chart reviews and access to more fields from the ED electronic health record could improve local drug surveillance.


2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 88-93
Author(s):  
Silvani Permatasari ◽  
Vani Vrenika ◽  
Florence Felicia ◽  
Malasinta Malasinta ◽  
Ria Eriani ◽  
...  

Tuberculosis (TB) is an infectious disease caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis. Indonesia is one of the developing countries with high TB patients in the world. The most common detection used for TB diagnosis is sputum smear examination. Smear negative pulmonary TB still have a risk of infection and can develop into active. The GeneXpert molecular examination is a rapid diagnosis of TB by the real-time PCR method. The purpose of this study was to assess the validity of GeneXpert in smear-negative pulmonary TB compared to Lowenstein Jensen's culture. The design of this diagnostic test study is a cross-sectional study. The study was conducted on 40 people with smear-negative pulmonary TB suspect patients in Dr. Doris Sylvanus Regional Hospital. Sputum examination was performed with GeneXpert and compared with Lowenstein Jensen culture. The results of GeneXpert validity for diagnosing smear-negative pulmonary TB suspect are sensitivity 81.8%, specificity 96.5%, positive predictive value 90%, negative predictive value 93.3%, and accuracy 92.5%. It was concluded that GeneXpert has sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and high accuracy as a diagnostic tool in smear-negative pulmonary TB suspects.


Author(s):  
Youssriah Yahia Sabri ◽  
Ikram Hamed Mahmoud ◽  
Lamis Tarek El-Gendy ◽  
Mohamed Raafat Abd El-Mageed ◽  
Sally Fouad Tadros

Abstract Background There are many causes of pleural disease including variable benign and malignant etiologies. DWI is a non-enhanced functional MRI technique that allows qualitative and quantitative characterization of tissues based on their water molecules diffusivity. The aim of this study was to evaluate the diagnostic value of DWI-MRI in detection and characterization of pleural diseases and its capability in differentiating benign from malignant pleural lesions. Results Conventional MRI was able to discriminate benign from malignant lesions by using morphological features (contour and thickness) with sensitivity 89.29%, specificity 76%, positive predictive value 89%, negative predictive value 76.92%, and accuracy 85.37%. ADC value as a quantitative parameter of DWI found that ADC values of malignant pleural diseases were significantly lower than that of benign lesions (P < 0.001). Hence, we discovered that using ADC mean value of 1.68 × 10-3 mm2/s as a cutoff value can differentiate malignant from benign pleural diseases with sensitivity 89.3%, specificity 100%, positive predictive value 100%, negative predictive value 81.2%, and accuracy 92.68% (P < 0.001). Conclusion Although DWI-MRI is unable to differentiate between malignant and benign pleural effusion, its combined morphological and functional information provide valid non-invasive method to accurately characterize pleural soft tissue diseases differentiating benign from malignant lesions with higher specificity and accuracy than conventional MRI.


2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Abd El-Fattah F. Hanno ◽  
Fatma M. Abd El-Aziz ◽  
Akram A. Deghady ◽  
Ehab H. El-Kholy ◽  
Aborawy I. Aborawy

Abstract Background Liver cancer is the fifth most common cancer and the second most frequent cause of cancer-related death globally. Early stages of hepatocellular carcinoma (0&A) can be treated with curative procedures. The aim of this work was to evaluate the role of annexin A2 and osteopontin for early diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma in hepatitis C virus patients. Methods The study was carried out on 80 patients classified into two groups. Group A had 40 chronic hepatitis C patients without hepatocellular carcinoma, while group B had 40 chronic hepatitis C patients with early hepatocellular carcinoma (stages; 0&A). All patients were subjected to thorough history taking, clinical examination, liver function tests, renal function tests, serum alpha-fetoprotein, serum osteopontin, and serum annexin A2. Results Serum alpha-fetoprotein was found to be statistically significantly higher in patients with the hepatocellular carcinoma group than the chronic hepatitis C group. The ROC curve for alpha-fetoprotein for detection of HCC was significant, its diagnostic performance was 0.818* (p < 0.001*), and the cutoff point for predicting the probability for HCC was 6.0 (ng/ml) with sensitivity of 77.50%, specificity of 82.50%, positive predictive value of 81.60%, negative predictive value of 78.6%, and accuracy of 80%. Serum osteopontin was found to be statistically significantly higher in patients from the hepatocellular carcinoma group than the chronic hepatitis C group. The ROC curve for osteopontin was significant, its diagnostic performance was 0.739* (p < 0.001*), the cutoff point was 13.2 (ng/ml) with sensitivity of 65.0%, specificity of 90.0%, positive predictive value of 86.70%, negative predictive value of 72.0%, and accuracy of 77.0%. Serum annexin A2 was found to be statistically significantly higher in patients from the hepatocellular carcinoma group than the chronic hepatitis C group. The ROC curve for annexin A2 was significant, its diagnostic performance was 0.927* (p < 0.001*), the cutoff point was 10.1(ng/ml) with sensitivity of 85.0%, specificity of 85.0%, positive predictive value of 85.0%, negative predictive value of 85.0%, and accuracy of 85.0%. Conclusions Osteopontin had better specificity but lower sensitivity than serum alpha-fetoprotein for early diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma. Annexin A2 had better diagnostic sensitivity and specificity than alpha-fetoprotein for early diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma.


2021 ◽  
Vol 80 (Suppl 1) ◽  
pp. 602.1-603
Author(s):  
E. S. Torun ◽  
E. Bektaş ◽  
F. Kemik ◽  
M. Bektaş ◽  
C. Cetin ◽  
...  

Background:Recently developed EULAR/ACR classification criteria for systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) have important differences compared to the 2012 Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) SLE classification criteria and the revised 1997 American College of Rheumatology (ACR) criteria: The obligatory entry criterion of antinuclear antibody (ANA) positivity is introduced and a “weighted” approach is used1. Sensitivity and specificity of these three criteria have been debated and may vary in different populations and clinical settings.Objectives:We aim to compare the performances of three criteria sets/rules in a large cohort of patients and relevant diseased controls from a reference center with dedicated clinics for SLE and other autoimmune/inflammatory connective tissue diseases from Turkey.Methods:We reviewed the medical records of SLE patients and diseased controls for clinical and laboratory features relevant to all sets of criteria. Criteria sets/rules were analysed based on sensitivity, positive predictive value, specificity and negative predictive value, using clinical diagnosis with at least 6 months of follow-up as the gold standard. A subgroup analysis was performed in ANA positive patients for both SLE patients and diseased controls. SLE patients that did not fulfil 2012 SLICC criteria and 2019 EULAR/ACR criteria and diseased controls that fulfilled these criteria were evaluated.Results:A total of 392 SLE patients and 294 non-SLE diseased controls (48 undifferentiated connective tissue disease, 51 Sjögren’s syndrome, 43 idiopathic inflammatory myopathy, 50 systemic sclerosis, 52 primary antiphospholipid syndrome, 15 rheumatoid arthritis, 15 psoriatic arthritis and 20 ANCA associated vasculitis) were included into the study. Hundred and fourteen patients (16.6%) were ANA negative.Sensitivity was more than 90% for 2012 SLICC criteria and 2019 EULAR/ACR criteria and positive predictive value was more than 90% for all three criteria (Table 1). Specificity was the highest for 1997 ACR criteria. Negative predictive value was 76.9% for ACR criteria, 88.4% for SLICC criteria and 91.7% for EULAR/ACR criteria.In only ANA positive patients, sensitivity was 79.6% for 1997 ACR criteria, 92.2% for 2012 SLICC criteria and 96.1% for 2019 EULAR/ACR criteria. Specificity was 92.6% for ACR criteria, 87.8% for SLICC criteria 85.2% for EULAR/ACR criteria.Eleven clinically diagnosed SLE patients had insufficient number of items for both 2012 SLICC and 2019 EULAR/ACR criteria. Both criteria were fulfilled by 16 diseased controls: 9 with Sjögren’s syndrome, 5 with antiphospholipid syndrome, one with dermatomyositis and one with systemic sclerosis.Table 1.Sensitivity, positive predictive value, specificity and negative predictive value of 1997 ACR, 2012 SLICC and 2019 EULAR/ACR classification criteriaSLE (+)SLE (-)Sensitivity (%)Positive Predictive Value (%)Specificity (%)Negative Predictive Value (%)1997 ACR(+) 308(-) 841527978.695.494.976.92012 SLICC(+) 357(-) 352626891.193.291.288.42019 EULAR/ACR(+) 368(-) 242826693.892.990.591.7Conclusion:In this cohort, although all three criteria have sufficient specificity, sensitivity and negative predictive value of 1997 ACR criteria are the lowest. Overall, 2019 EULAR/ACR and 2012 SLICC criteria have a comparable performance, but if only ANA positive cases and controls are analysed, the specificity of both criteria decrease to less than 90%. Some SLE patients with a clinical diagnosis lacked sufficient number of criteria. Mostly, patients with Sjögren’s syndrome or antiphospholipid syndrome are prone to misclassification by both recent criteria.References:[1]Aringer M, Costenbader K, Daikh D, et al. 2019 European League Against Rheumatism/American College of Rheumatology classification criteria for systemic lupus erythematosus. Ann Rheum Dis 2019;78:1151-1159.Disclosure of Interests:None declared


2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (Supplement_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
M Moshage ◽  
S Smolka ◽  
S Achenbach ◽  
F Ammon ◽  
P Ferstl ◽  
...  

Abstract Background The accuracy of CT-derived FFR (FFRCT) has been repeatedly reported. However, the influence of lesion location on accuracy is unknown. Therefore, we evaluated the diagnostic accuracy of FFRCT to detect lesion-specific ischemia and determined the influence of lesion location (proximal vs. distal vessel segments) compared to invasively measured FFR in patients with suspected CAD. Methods A total of 136 vessels in which “Dual-Source”-CT coronary angiography had been performed due to suspected CAD and who were further referred for invasive coronary angiography with invasive FFR measurement within three months of the index CT examination were retrospectively identified and screened for inclusion in this analysis. Patients with either left main coronary artery stenoses, bifurcation or ostial stenoses were excluded. Invasive FFR was measured using a pressure wire (CERTUS®, St. Jude Medical, Minnesota, USA or Verrata®, Volcano, San Diego, USA). FFRCT was calculated using an on-site prototype (cFFR Version 3.0, Siemens Healthineers, Forchheim, Germany). All vessels were analyzed by an experienced observer blinded to the results of invasive FFR. Stenoses with invasively measured FFR ≤0.80 were classified as hemodynamically significant. We evaluated the diagnostic accuracy of FFRCT in proximal vs. non-proximal vessel segments. Proximal lesions included stenoses located in segment one, six, eleven and twelve. All other stenoses were categorized as distal lesions. Results Out of 136 coronary stenoses, 47 (35%) were located in proximal segments and 89 (65%) lesions were located in distal segments. Compared to invasive FFR, the sensitivity of FFRCT to correctly identify/exclude hemodynamically significant stenoses in proximal vessel segments was 93% (95% CI: 68–99.8%) and the specificity was 100% (95% CI: 89–100%), compared to a sensitivity of 72% (95% CI: 46.5–90%) and a specificity of 87% (95% CI: 77–94%) for FFRCT in distal lesions. The positive predictive value was 100% and the negative predictive value was 97% (95% CI: 82.8–99.5%) compared to a positive predictive value of 59% (95% CI: 42–93.9%) and a negative predictive value of 93% (95% CI: 85.4–96.3%) for proximal vs. distal vessel segment, respectively. This corresponds to an accuracy of 98% vs. 84%, respectively (p=0.02). ROC-Curve analysis showed a slightly higher – albeit non-significant – area under the curve for FFRCT to detect hemodynamic relevance in proximal lesions compared to distal lesions (AUC 0.95, p&lt;0.001 vs. AUC: 0.86, p&lt;0.001, respectively, p=0.2). Conclusion FFRCT obtained using an on-site prototype shows overall a high diagnostic accuracy for detecting lesions causing ischemia as compared to invasive FFR with a trend towards better diagnostic performance in proximal vessel segments. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: None


Medicina ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 57 (5) ◽  
pp. 503
Author(s):  
Thomas F. Monaghan ◽  
Syed N. Rahman ◽  
Christina W. Agudelo ◽  
Alan J. Wein ◽  
Jason M. Lazar ◽  
...  

Sensitivity, which denotes the proportion of subjects correctly given a positive assignment out of all subjects who are actually positive for the outcome, indicates how well a test can classify subjects who truly have the outcome of interest. Specificity, which denotes the proportion of subjects correctly given a negative assignment out of all subjects who are actually negative for the outcome, indicates how well a test can classify subjects who truly do not have the outcome of interest. Positive predictive value reflects the proportion of subjects with a positive test result who truly have the outcome of interest. Negative predictive value reflects the proportion of subjects with a negative test result who truly do not have the outcome of interest. Sensitivity and specificity are inversely related, wherein one increases as the other decreases, but are generally considered stable for a given test, whereas positive and negative predictive values do inherently vary with pre-test probability (e.g., changes in population disease prevalence). This article will further detail the concepts of sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values using a recent real-world example from the medical literature.


Author(s):  
Mohamed Zidan ◽  
Shimaa Ali Saad ◽  
Eman Abo Elhamd ◽  
Hosam Eldin Galal ◽  
Reem Elkady

Abstract Background Asymmetric breast density is a potentially perplexing finding; it may be due to normal hormonal variation of the parenchymal pattern and summation artifact or it may indicate an underlying true pathology. The current study aimed to identify the role of diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI) and the apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) values in the assessment of breast asymmetries. Results Fifty breast lesions were detected corresponding to the mammographic asymmetry. There were 35 (70%) benign lesions and 15 (30%) malignant lesions. The mean ADC value was 1.59 ± 0.4 × 10–3 mm2/s for benign lesions and 0.82 ± 0.3 × 10–3 mm2/s for malignant lesions. The ADC cutoff value to differentiate between benign and malignant lesions was 1.10 × 10–3 mm2/s with sensitivity 80%, specificity 88.6%, positive predictive value 75%, negative predictive value 91%, and accuracy 86%. Best results were achieved by implementation of the combined DCE-MRI and DWI protocol, with sensitivity 93.3%, specificity 94.3%, positive predictive value 87.5%, negative predictive value 97.1%, and accuracy 94%. Conclusion Dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI (DCE-MRI) was the most sensitive method for the detection of the underlying malignant pathology of breast asymmetries. However, it provided a limited specificity that may cause improper final BIRADS classification and may increase the unnecessary invasive procedures. DWI was used as an adjunctive method to DCE-MRI that maintained high sensitivity and increased specificity and the overall diagnostic accuracy of breast MRI examination. Best results can be achieved by the combined protocol of DCE-MRI and DWI.


2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (s1) ◽  
pp. 38-38
Author(s):  
Safa Kaleem ◽  
Christa B. Swisher

OBJECTIVES/SPECIFIC AIMS: 1. Determine positive predictive value, negative predictive value, sensitivity, and specificity of Neuro ICU nurse interpretation of real-time bedside qEEG. 2. Determine difference in time to detection of first seizure between Neuro ICU nurse qEEG interpretation and EEG fellow reads of cEEG. 3. Determine what qualities of seizures make detection by neuro ICU nurses more or less likely – e.g. duration of seizures, type of seizures, spatial extent of seizures. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: Recruit neuro ICU nurses taking care of 150 patients admitted to the Neuro ICU at Duke University Hospital who are initiated on cEEG monitoring. Nurses will be consented for their participation in the study. Neuro ICU nurses will evaluate the qEE RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: From literature estimates of a 20% seizure prevalence in critical care settings, we hope to have 30 patients with seizures and 120 without. Based on prior study in the Duke Neuro ICU, we hypothesize that Neuro ICU nurses will have sensitivity and DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE OF IMPACT: This is the first prospective study of neuro ICU nurse interpretation of real-time bedside qEEG in patients with unknown NCSE/NCS presence. If nurse sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value are clinically useful, which we deem would be so at a sensitivity of 70% or greater, with acceptable false alarm rate, nurse readings of qEEG could significantly decrease the time to treatment of seizures in the Neuro ICU patient population, and perhaps could improve patient outcomes.


2013 ◽  
Vol 57 (9) ◽  
pp. 4578-4580 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nathalie Tijet ◽  
David Boyd ◽  
Samir N. Patel ◽  
Michael R. Mulvey ◽  
Roberto G. Melano

ABSTRACTThe Carba NP test was evaluated against a panel of 244 carbapenemase- and non-carbapenemase-producingEnterobacteriaceaeandPseudomonas aeruginosaisolates. We confirmed the 100% specificity and positive predictive value of the test, but the sensitivity and negative predictive value were 72.5% and 69.2%, respectively, and increased to 80% and 77.3%, respectively, using a more concentrated bacterial extract. False-negative results were associated with mucoid strains or linked to enzymes with low carbapenemase activity, particularly OXA-48-like, which has emerged globally in enterobacteria.


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