Covid Adult Mortality in Brazil: An Analysis of Multiple Causes of Death

ObjectiveThis study aimed to analyze the chain of events and contributing causes associated with COVID-19 adult mortality (30–69 years old), based on qualified data on CoD from three Brazilian capitals cities, Belo Horizonte, Salvador, and Natal, in 2020.MethodsData of all deaths among residents in the three capitals in 2020 were provided by these municipalities' routine Mortality Information System (SIM). Mentions B34.2 with the markers U07.1 and U07.2 in the death certificate identified COVID-19 deaths. We used a multiple-cause-of-death approach better to understand the complexity of the morbid process of COVID-19. Conditions that appeared more frequently in the same line or above the COVID-19 mentions in the death certificate were considered a chain-of-event. Conditions that occurred more often after the codes for COVID-19 were considered as contributing.ResultsIn 2020, 7,029 records from COVID-19 as the underlying cause of death were registered in SIM in the three capitals. Among these, 2,921 (41.6%) were deceased between 30 and 69 years old, representing 17.0% of deaths in this age group. As chain-of-events, the most frequent conditions mentioned were sepsis (33.4%), SARS (32.0%), acute respiratory failure (31.9%), unspecified lower respiratory infections (unspecified pneumonia) (20.1%), and other specified respiratory disorders (14.1%). Hypertension (33.3%), diabetes unspecified type (21.7%), renal failure (12.7%), obesity (9.8%), other chronic kidney diseases (4.9%), and diabetes mellitus type 2 (4.7%) were the most frequent contributing conditions. On average, 3.04 conditions were mentioned in the death certificate besides COVID-19. This average varied according to age, place of death, and capital.ConclusionThe multiple-cause analysis is a powerful tool to better understand the morbid process due to COVID-19 and highlight the importance of chronic non-communicable diseases as contributing conditions.

Feasibility of using death certificates for studying place of death in Latin America

Objective. This paper assesses the availability and quality of death certificate data in Latin America and the feasibility of using these data to study place of death and associated factors. Methods. In this comparative study, we collected examples of current official death certificates and digital data files containing information about all deaths that occurred during 1 year in 19 Latin American countries. Data were collected from June 2019 to May 2020. The records for place of death and associated variables were studied. The criteria for data quality were completeness, number of ill-defined causes of death and timeliness. Results. All 19 countries provided copies of current official death certificates and 18 of these registered the place of death. Distinguishing among hospital or other health care institution, home and other was possible for all countries. Digital data files with death certificate data were available from 12 countries and 1 region. Three countries had data considered to be of high quality and seven had data considered to be of medium quality. Categories for place of death and most of the predetermined factors possibly associated with place of death were included in the data files. Conclusions. The quality of data sets was rated medium to high in 10 countries. Hence, death certificate data make it feasible to conduct an international comparative study on place of death and the associated factors in Latin America.

Using Catchment Population to Estimate Sporadic Creutzfeldt–Jakob Disease Incidence

ABSTRACT Introduction Catchment populations have several uses. A method using catchment population to estimate the incidence of sporadic Creutzfeldt–Jakob disease (sCJD) is described. Materials and Methods A cohort of nine consecutive patients diagnosed with sCJD, symptom onset spanning 26 months, were observed at a rural tertiary university medical center that has approximately 40,000 hospital discharges annually. An effective catchment population was determined using surrounding county utilization frequency that captured all nine sCJD patients and accounted for over 87% of discharges. Results The effective sCJD hospital catchment population was 1.266 million, implying an annual sCJD incidence rate of 3.39 per million (95% CIs, 1.55-6.43), assuming a Poisson distribution for sCJD occurrence. Conclusions This annual incidence rate suggests that many sCJD patients are unrecognized and unreported. An advantage of this catchment population method is independence from death certificate accuracy, important in rare diseases that are both rapidly and invariably fatal. The relative absence of significant healthcare systems competition in this rural population enhances the reliability of this finding. The most likely explanation for the high sCJD incidence rate suggested by this study is enhanced clinical suspicion and improved diagnostic accuracy.

Age and Ageism in the COVID-19 Pandemic: What Does the Data Show?

Gerontologists were quick to call out the resurgence of ageism that was reflected in the paternalistic, overgeneralized, and deficit views of aging that dominated discussions about age-associated risks of the disease and its consequences. One manifestation of the blunt and potentially ageism-promoting use of age in data about the virus is the failure to routinely distinguish the independent role of age alone, separate from its association with comorbidities. A related problem is the use of broad age categories, which can also mask the role of specific comorbidities. To address that gap, this study uses data from Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, as of Feb 21, 2021 to calculate age-specific COVID-19 death rates (ASDR) and compare the extent to which comorbid conditions potentially associated with COVID-19 deaths were listed on death certificates. Findings showed that the ASDR was significantly higher for those 85 years and over (2249.96 per 100,000); the rate was 802.66 for 75-84 and 312.78 per 100,000 for 65-74. Death certificate information revealed that influenza and pneumonia was the major contributing comorbidity to COVID-19 deaths across all three age groups; (listed on 49% of the death certificates for those 65-74 who died with COVID-19, 46% of those 75-84, and 38% of those 85 and over). Future studies should be more precise about the use of age/age groups, about the rationale for those designations, and about the impact of age separate from comorbidities. Broad use of an arbitrary age as a proxy for frailty and illness contributes to ageism.

Advancements in the National Vital Statistics System to Meet the Real-Time Data Needs of a Pandemic

The National Center for Health Statistics’ (NCHS’s) National Vital Statistics System (NVSS) collects, processes, codes, and reviews death certificate data and disseminates the data in annual data files and reports. With the global rise of COVID-19 in early 2020, the NCHS mobilized to rapidly respond to the growing need for reliable, accurate, and complete real-time data on COVID-19 deaths. Within weeks of the first reported US cases, NCHS developed certification guidance, adjusted internal data processing systems, and stood up a surveillance system to release daily updates of COVID-19 deaths to track the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on US mortality. This report describes the processes that NCHS took to produce timely mortality data in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. (Am J Public Health. 2021;111(12):2133–2140. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2021.306519 )

Geographic Disparities of Alzheimer’s Disease Mortality in Females With Breast Cancer

Our estimates showed significant gaps in mortality rates between the West and East parts of the U.S. when these rates are based on death certificate data. These geographic disparities were persistent over time and could not be fully explained by differences in demographic and socioeconomic characteristics, comorbidities, and/or differences in AD coding between these regions. However, incidence and incidence-based mortality rates based on Medicare data do not reproduce these geographic disparities. Death certificate-based patterns hold for the subset of the population with breast cancer, e.g., for subpopulation for which breast cancer was listed as a secondary cause of death. Therefore, SEER-Medicare data, which contains both death-certificate records and Medicare administrative claims for the same individuals can be used to resolve this inconsistency in findings. Analysis of breast cancer patients from two SEER registries in NJ and WA states in SEER-Medicare data (2000-2013) showed that the fraction of deceased individuals with an underlying cause AD among those who had a Medicare diagnosis of AD is 2.5-3.5 times (depending on the Medicare ascertainment algorithm) higher in WA comparing to NJ (p<0.0001). The odds ratio of not-having AD as an underlying cause is 1.3 for WA vs. NJ and increases with age, for non-white races, and unmarried individuals. Our findings do not support the hypothesis of higher rates of AD in WA state but show that AD is likely underrepresented in death certificate in NJ and possibly other East coast states.

The impact of errors in medical certification on the accuracy of the underlying cause of death

Background Correct certification of cause of death by physicians (i.e. completing the medical certificate of cause of death or MCCOD) and correct coding according to International Classification of Diseases (ICD) rules are essential to produce quality mortality statistics to inform health policy. Despite clear guidelines, errors in medical certification are common. This study objectively measures the impact of different medical certification errors upon the selection of the underlying cause of death. Methods A sample of 1592 error-free MCCODs were selected from the 2017 United States multiple cause of death data. The ten most common types of errors in completing the MCCOD (according to published studies) were individually simulated on the error-free MCCODs. After each simulation, the MCCODs were coded using Iris automated mortality coding software. Chance-corrected concordance (CCC) was used to measure the impact of certification errors on the underlying cause of death. Weights for each error type and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) group (representing different mortality conditions) were calculated from the CCC and categorised (very high, high, medium and low) to describe their effect on cause of death accuracy. Findings The only very high impact error type was reporting an ill-defined condition as the underlying cause of death. High impact errors were found to be reporting competing causes in Part 1 [of the death certificate] and illegibility, with medium impact errors being reporting underlying cause in Part 2 [of the death certificate], incorrect or absent time intervals and reporting contributory causes in Part 1, and low impact errors comprising multiple causes per line and incorrect sequence. There was only small difference in error importance between SDI groups. Conclusions Reporting an ill-defined condition as the underlying cause of death can seriously affect the coding outcome, while other certification errors were mitigated through the correct application of mortality coding rules. Training of physicians in not reporting ill-defined conditions on the MCCOD and mortality coders in correct coding practices and using Iris should be important components of national strategies to improve cause of death data quality.

Sir William Osler's fatal trip to Scotland: “Mrs M” and the University Grants Committee

On 23 September 1919, Sir William Osler, after a telephone call from his friend Dyson Perrins, went to Glasgow where he saw a 40-year-old woman, Bethia Fulton Martin, in consultation with three local physicians. Osler called it “one of those remarkable Erythema cases (all sorts of skin lesions and three months on and off consolidation of both lower lobes).” Mrs Martin died 114 days later; her death certificate listed “angioneurotic oedema with chronic nephritis” and “tuberculous enlargement of the mediastinal lymph nodes.” Osler died 18 days before Mrs Martin of complications from a respiratory infection acquired on his way home from Scotland. We discuss factors that possibly prompted Osler to go to Scotland, including his role with the newly formed University Grants Committee, and the differential diagnosis of the case, which is mainly between systemic lupus erythematosus and Henoch-Schönlein purpura.