Deriving Proven Oil Reserves Comments on the Monte Carlo Simulation Procedure

The definition of reserves categories is frequently related directly back to the probabilistic distribution of reserves in the field. Most developments are planned around the P50 or “most likely” expectation for the field a level which incorporates the Proven plus Probable categories. The Proven category is usually backed out from the resulting reserves distribution by assuming an arbitrary P90 or P80 value, similarly upside or the Reserves including the Possible category are allocated a P20 or P10 value. This approach provides an “accepted” range to the reserves but is essentially reliant upon applying a range to a set of deterministric parameters. This approach assumes the basic principles of reservoir description are correct and can be applied at all confidence levels (P90-P10). In complex reservoirs this is less of a valid assumption, and running deterministic cases using pessimistic and optimistic data interpretations is the realistic way to determine the reserves range for the field.