Discussion—Innovation, Future Earnings, and Market Efficiency

2005 ◽  
Vol 20 (4) ◽  
pp. 419-422 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chandra Seethamraju
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Citation Impact ◽  
Earnings Forecasts ◽  
Patent Citation ◽  
Time Lags ◽  
Future Earnings ◽  
Market Participants ◽  
Technological Advances ◽  
Abnormal Stock Returns

This study considers patent citation impact as a proxy for a leading indicator of technology firms' innovation capabilities. The author examines whether patent citation impact is associated with future earnings and whether this association is appropriately reflected in stock prices and analysts' earnings forecasts of patent-rich companies. The author reports results which indicate that change of patent citation impact is positively associated with future earnings up to five years in the future, particularly in the computer, electronics, and medical equipment industries. These are industries with relatively short time lags between technological advances and profit realization. The author also reports that investors and analysts do not seem to fully incorporate the implication of enhanced innovation capabilities for future earnings into stock prices and earnings forecasts. Based on this information, the paper develops a trading strategy that generates future abnormal stock returns. In my view, this paper asks an important question. If a researcher could come up with an appropriate leading measure of innovation, then examining the reliability of that measure through its association with future benefits, and whether the implications of the measure are understood by market participants, is an interesting exercise. In my discussion, I will focus on (a) some of the issues with the patent citation index (the measure of innovation capabilities), (b) problems with the databases used to construct this measure which suggest that the results should be interpreted with caution, and (c) some additional comments on the mispricing and portfolio tests.

scholarly journals Innovation, Future Earnings, and Market Efficiency

2005 ◽  
Vol 20 (4) ◽  
pp. 385-418 ◽  
Author(s):  
Feng Gu
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Citation Impact ◽  
Earnings Forecasts ◽  
Patent Citation ◽  
Future Market ◽  
Time Lags ◽  
Future Earnings ◽  
Technological Advances ◽  
Abnormal Stock Returns

This study examines whether patent citation impact, a leading indicator of technology firms' innovation capabilities, is associated with future earnings and whether this association is appropriately reflected in stock prices and analysts' earnings forecasts of patent-rich companies. The results indicate that change of patent citation impact is positively associated with future earnings, particularly in industries with relatively short time lags between technological advances and profit realization (e.g., computers, electronics, and medical equipment). The strength of this relation also significantly increases with time for up to five years in the future. Market participants, including investors and analysts, however, do not fully incorporate the implication of enhanced innovation capabilities for future earnings into stock prices and earnings forecasts. This bias is significantly associated with future abnormal stock returns.

The Reversal of Abnormal Accruals and the Market Valuation of Earnings Surprises

2001 ◽  
Vol 76 (3) ◽  
pp. 375-404 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark L. DeFond ◽  
Chul W. Park
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Earnings Forecasts ◽  
Market Valuation ◽  
Working Capital ◽  
Future Earnings ◽  
Market Participants ◽  
Announcement Date ◽  
Earnings Surprises ◽  
Abnormal Accruals ◽  
The Difference

If the market anticipates the reversing nature of abnormal working capital accruals, then the reported magnitude of earnings surprises that contain abnormal accruals will differ from the underlying magnitude that is priced by the market. We expect the market's perception of this difference to affect the ERCs associated with earnings surprises that contain abnormal accruals. We test our predictions using an abnormal accruals measure that captures the difference between reported working capital and a proxy for the market's expectations of the level of working capital required to support current sales levels. Consistent with our hypotheses, we find higher ERCs when abnormal accruals suppress the magnitude of earnings surprises, and lower ERCs when abnormal accruals exaggerate the magnitude of earnings surprises. We also find results consistent with analysts predictably considering the reversing implications of abnormal accruals in revising future earnings forecasts. These findings are consistent with market participants anticipating the reversing implications of abnormal accruals. However, analysis of subsequent stock returns provides evidence that market participants do not fully impound the pricing implications of abnormal accruals at the earnings announcement date.

Studying the Effect of Changing the Managing Director on the Abnormal Returns of Shares of Companies Listed on the Iraqi Stock Exchange

2021 ◽  
Vol 39 (11) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hussein Hasan ◽  
Hudaa Nadhim Khalbas ◽  
Farqad Mohammed Bakr AL Saadi
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Significant Relationship ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Market Reaction ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Hypothesis Test ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
The Other ◽  
Other Hand ◽  
Abnormal Stock Returns

The aim of this research is to study the market reaction to the change of the managing director and how this change affects the abnormal returns of the shares. The research is based on the information published by the companies listed on the Iraq Stock Exchange, and 35 companies were selected for the period from 2015 to 2019. The results of the hypothesis test for this study show that there is a negative and significant relationship between the change of the managing director and abnormal stock returns. On the other hand, investors undervalue stock prices when changing CEOs. As a result, the stock returns are less than expected.

scholarly journals Do corporate bond rating revisions convey information about earnings and dividend changes?

2012 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 373-393 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven T. Anderson ◽  
Gurmeet Singh Bhabra ◽  
Harjeet S. Bhabra ◽  
Asjeet S. Lamba
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Corporate Bond ◽  
Bond Rating ◽  
Future Earnings ◽  
Rating Agencies ◽  
Abnormal Stock Returns ◽  
Rating Changes ◽  
Future Cash Flows ◽  
Rating Downgrades

We study the information content of corporate bond rating changes regarding future earnings and dividends. Consistent with previous findings, rating downgrades are associated with negative abnormal stock returns, while rating upgrades appear to be nonevents. For downgrades, earnings decline in the two years prior to and the year of the rating change announcement but increase in the year after the rating review. We also find that rating downgrades are followed by a subsequent downward adjustment in dividends. While rating upgrades follow a period of rising earnings, they do not signal any increase in future earnings and no subsequent dividend adjustments are observed. Overall, our results indicate that rating agencies respond more to permanent changes in cash flows and provide little information, if any, about future cash flows.

The cost of presidential impeachment to politically connected firms

2019 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 109-121
Author(s):  
Ha Na Lee ◽  
B. K. Song
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Constitutional Court ◽  
Korean History ◽  
South Korean ◽  
Price Data ◽  
Political Events ◽  
Abnormal Stock Returns ◽  
The Cost

AbstractThis study examines the ways political events can affect the stock prices of politically connected firms by studying one of the biggest corruption scandals in modern South Korean history, which led to the first-ever impeachment of a sitting president. We analyzed the stock returns of firms that donated money to foundations allegedly controlled by the president's confidante. We found that the abnormal stock returns of politically connected firms decreased when the president was removed from office. Using tick-by-tick stock price data, we were able to pinpoint the exact moments when the stock prices of firms that donated money fluctuated, as the president's fate was determined by the justices of the Constitutional Court.

Extracting Forward-Looking Information from Security Prices: A New Approach

2008 ◽  
Vol 83 (4) ◽  
pp. 1101-1124 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dan Weiss ◽  
Prasad A. Naik ◽  
Chih-Ling Tsai
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Time Series Models ◽  
Security Prices ◽  
Firm Level ◽  
Analyst Following ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Future Earnings ◽  
Market Participants ◽  
Forward Looking

ABSTRACT: This paper proposes a new index to extract forward-looking information from security prices and infer market participants’ expectations of future earnings. The index, called market-adapted earnings (MAE), utilizes stock returns and fundamental accounting signals to estimate market expectations of future earnings at the firm level. MAE outperforms time-series models (e.g., random-walk) in predicting future earnings. Results demonstrate the usefulness of MAE for firms that have no analyst following.

Do market participants value earnings management? An analysis using the quantile regression method

2019 ◽  
Vol 45 (1) ◽  
pp. 103-123 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leon Li ◽  
Nen-Chen Richard Hwang
Keyword(s):  
Quantile Regression ◽  
Earnings Management ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Discretionary Accruals ◽  
Earnings Manipulation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Market Participants ◽  
Gains And Losses ◽  
Quantile Regression Method

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to postulate that market participants’ views on the nature of discretionary accruals as earnings management or earnings manipulation could relate to a rise or a fall in a firm’s stock prices.Design/methodology/approachApplying the quantile regression and measuring gains and losses according to the stock returns, this study shows that the relation between earnings manipulation and stock returns is non-uniform and it varies significantly across various quantiles of the latter.FindingsThe empirical results imply a positive (negative) |DA|-RETURN relation for stocks experiencing a rise (fall) in stock prices. This finding is consistent with the notion that market participants lean towards (become) trend followers (fundamentalists) when their stocks price rise (fall) and, thus, positively reward (negatively punish) discretionary accruals.Originality/valueUsing the behavioural heterogeneity of market participants as a research framework, this paper contributes to the literature by demonstrating that market participants’ decisions to positively reward (negatively punish) earning management behaviour depend on their perceptions on nature of discretionary accruals (earnings management vs earnings manipulation).

scholarly journals Use Of Earnings Information For Stock Pricing In Different Market Cycles: The Effect Of Discretionary Accruals

2011 ◽  
Vol 7 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alireza Daneshfar ◽  
Mohammad J. Saei
Keyword(s):  
Earnings Management ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Discretionary Accruals ◽  
Ratio Analysis ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Font Size ◽  
True Nature ◽  
Earnings Information ◽  
Abnormal Stock Returns

<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; margin: 0in 0.5in 0pt;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">This study examines the association between stock prices and discretionary accruals in different stock market cycles and presents evidence about the discrepancy in prior research that investors were able to identify earnings management in some cases, but not in some other cases. We argue that investors&rsquo; reaction to the true nature of EPS changes may be different in different market cycles. We suggests that investors pay less attention to the nature of EPS changes in an optimistic cycle, and are more critical in neutral and pessimistic cycles. Therefore, investors are more likely to detect and count for any earnings management in a neutral or pessimistic cycle than in an optimistic cycle. Using the U.S. quarterly data from July 01, 1997 to June 29, 2001, three market cycles were identified: optimistic, neutral and pessimistic. The test results indicated that the association between discretionary accruals and abnormal stock returns were insignificant in the neutral market cycle, significant and positive in the optimistic cycle and significant and negative in the pessimistic cycle. These findings indicate that investors tend to ignore the income-increasing effect of discretionary accruals on EPS changes in an optimistic market. The finding suggests that a more delegate and technical analysis of EPS changes is required when earnings information is used for stock pricing. It also suggests that a consideration of market cycle effect on investors&rsquo; use of EPS could improve the earnings-based ratio analysis. The findings propose that researchers interested in investigating the association between stock prices and earnings management should control for the effect of the market cycle during which their samples are drawn. </span></span></p>

DIVIDEND ANNOUNCEMENTS AND THE ABNORMAL STOCK RETURNS FOR THE EVENT FIRM AND ITS RIVALS

2012 ◽  
Vol 01 (08) ◽  
pp. 72-76
Author(s):  
Muhammad Aamir ◽  
Syed Zullfiqar Ali Shah
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Theoretical Background ◽  
Study Data ◽  
Share Prices ◽  
Dividend Announcements ◽  
Abnormal Stock Returns ◽  
Rival Firms

Impact of dividend announcement on stock prices is pronounced in various studies conducted by various researchers. Event study has been conducted in this paper on 26 announcements and the firms were belonging to cement and oil and gas sector of Pakistan. In this study data span of 2004-2008 has been covered. Impact of dividend announcement on stock prices of event and rival firms has been analysed and it has been found that dividend announcement depicts positive impact on share prices of the companies at the time of announcement as well as immediately after such announcements. Performance of event firms has been evaluated in comparison with its rival firms in this study in order to give better understanding of dividend announcement effect on the financial health of the companies. Overall, our results robust the findings of earlier research and as per theoretical background of the study. Our conclusion explains the significance of t-statistics values during this study.

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