scholarly journals Interest Rate Sensitivity of Non-banking Financial Sector in India

2018 ◽  
Vol 43 (3) ◽  
pp. 152-170
Author(s):  
Renu Ghosh ◽  
K. Latha ◽  
Sunita Gupta
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Rate Sensitivity ◽  
Interest Rate Risk ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Rate Risk ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
The Impact

Executive Summary Before financial liberalization, interest rates were administered and exhibited near-zero volatility. The easing of financial repression in the 1990s generated experiences with interest rate volatility in India. Administrative restrictions on interest rates in India have been steadily eased since 1993. This has led to increased interest rate risk for financial firms. Most research studies have almost exclusively focused on the developed countries especially the banking sector of the United States. The present study attempts to examine the interest rate risk of non-banking financial institutions in India by using the methodology of panel regression and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) (1, 1) model for the period from 1 April 1996 to 30 August 2014. The sample used in the study consists of all non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) listed in the S&P CNX 500 index which has continuous availability of share prices over the study period. The study also examines the impact of unanticipated changes in interest rate on stock returns of NBFCs. The Box–Jenkins methodology is applied to calculate unanticipated changes in interest rate variable, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) (24, 1, 0) model. The time series used in the present study is found to be stationary at the first logarithmic difference. Stock returns exhibit significant exposure with both market returns and interest rate changes. The interest rate sensitivity of large, medium, and small financial institutions is also found to be different. Estimation results for the variance equation in GARCH (1, 1) model suggest that the volatility for individual firm stock returns is time-variant. The ARCH and GARCH coefficients are found to be significant, providing evidence against using traditional model (ordinary least square (OLS)) that assumes time-invariant volatility. This implies that the market has a memory longer than one period and volatility is more sensitive to its own lagged values than it is to new surprises in the market. This study also investigates the possible determinants that account for cross-sectional variation in the interest rate sensitivity of NBFCs. It is found that the size of the firm is the preferred determinant that accounts for cross-sectional variation in the interest rate sensitivity of finance companies. When unanticipated changes in interest rate are used in lieu of actual interest rate changes, not much difference is observed in the significance coefficients. The only significant difference observed is in the magnitude. The impact of actual interest rate changes is more than the impact of unanticipated interest rate changes in absolute terms. This difference in the magnitude of impact arises because actual data incorporate movement in both anticipated and unanticipated components of interest rate. Hence, NBFCs managers and regulators should adopt policies and strategies to avoid the transmission of interest rate risk in their stock returns.

scholarly journals Who Bears Interest Rate Risk?

2018 ◽  
Vol 32 (8) ◽  
pp. 2921-2954 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Hoffmann ◽  
Sam Langfield ◽  
Federico Pierobon ◽  
Guillaume Vuillemey
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Interest Rate Risk ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Net Worth ◽  
Loan Rate ◽  
Rate Risk ◽  
European Banking

Abstract We study the allocation of interest rate risk within the European banking sector using novel data. Banks’ exposure to interest rate risk is small on aggregate, but heterogeneous in the cross-section. Contrary to conventional wisdom, net worth is increasing in interest rates for approximately half of the institutions in our sample. Cross-sectional variation in banks’ exposures is driven by cross-country differences in loan-rate fixation conventions for mortgages. Banks use derivatives to partially hedge on-balance-sheet exposures. Residual exposures imply that changes in interest rates have redistributive effects within the banking sector. Received October 31, 2017; editorial decision August 30, 2018 by Editor Philip Strahan. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.

Varying interest rate sensitivity of different property sectors: cross-country evidence from REITs

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yu-Cheng Lin ◽  
Chyi Lin Lee ◽  
Graeme Newell
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Rate Sensitivity ◽  
Interest Rate Risk ◽  
Pacific Rim ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Rate Risk ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
The Interest Rate

PurposeRecognising that different property sectors have distinct risk-return characteristics, this paper assesses whether changes in the level and volatility of short- and long-term interest rates differentially affected excess returns of sector-specific Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) in the Pacific Rim region between July 2006 and December 2018. The strategic property risk management implications for sector-specific REITs are also identified.Design/methodology/approachDaily excess returns between July 2006 and December 2018 are used to analyse the sensitivity in the level and volatility of interest rates for REITs among office, retail, industrial, residential and specialty REITs across the USA, Japan, Australia and Singapore. The generalised autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic in the mean (GARCH-M) methodology is employed to assess the linkage between interest rates and excess returns of sector-specific REITs.FindingsCompared with diversified REITs, sector-specific REITs were less sensitive to short- and long-term interest rate changes across the USA, Japan, Australia and Singapore between July 2006 and December 2018. Of sector-specific REITs, retail and residential REITs were susceptible to interest rate movements over the full study period. On the other hand, office and specialty REITs were generally less sensitive to changes in the level and volatility of short- and long-term interest rate series across all markets in the Pacific Rim region. However, the interest rate sensitivity of industrial REITs was somewhat mixed. This sector was sensitive to interest rate movements, but no comparable evidence was found since the onset of GFC.Practical implicationsThe insignificant exposure to interest rate risk of sector-specific REITs may imply that they have a stronger interest rate risk aversion and greater hedging benefits than their diversified counterparts, particularly for office and specialty REITs. The results support the existence of REIT specialisation value in the Pacific Rim region from the interest rate risk management perspective. This is particularly valuable to international property investors constructing and managing portfolios with REITs in the region. Property investors are advised to be aware of the disparities in the magnitude and direction of sensitivity to the interest rate level and volatility of REITs across different property sectors and various markets in the Pacific Rim region. This study is expected to enhance property investors' understanding of interest rate risk management for different property types of REITs in local, regional and international investment portfolios.Originality/valueThe study is the first to assess the interest rate sensitivity of REITs across different property sectors and various markets in the Pacific Rim region. More importantly, this is the first paper to offer empirical evidence on the existence of specialisation value in the Pacific Rim REIT markets from the aspect of interest rate sensitivity. This research may enhance property investors' understanding of the varying interest rate sensitivity of different property types of REITs across the USA, Japan, Australia and Singapore.

A Bayesian Pricing of Longevity Derivatives with Interest Rate Risks

2017 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Atsuyuki Kogure ◽  
Takahiro Fushimi
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Mortality Risk ◽  
Interest Rate Risk ◽  
Stochastic Interest Rates ◽  
Rate Risk ◽  
Stochastic Interest ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Longevity Bonds ◽  
Carter Model

AbstractMortality-linked securities such as longevity bonds or longevity swaps usually depend on not only mortality risk but also interest rate risk. However, in the existing pricing methodologies, it is often the case that only the mortality risk is modeled to change in a stochastic manner and the interest rate is kept fixed at a pre-specified level. In order to develop large and liquid longevity markets, it is essential to incorporate the interest rate risk into pricing mortality-linked securities. In this paper we tackle the issue by considering the pricing of longevity derivatives under stochastic interest rates following the CIR model. As for the mortality modeling, we use a two-factor extension of the Lee-Carter model by noting the recent studies which point out the inconsistencies of the original Lee-Carter model with observed mortality rates due to its single factor structure. To address the issue of parameter uncertainty, we propose using a Bayesian methodology both to estimate the models and to price longevity derivatives in line with (Kogure, A., and Y. Kurachi. 2010. “A Bayesian Approach to Pricing Longevity Risk Based on Risk Neutral Predictive Distributions.”

scholarly journals Confederation debt management since 1970

2019 ◽  
Vol 155 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Basil Guggenheim ◽  
Mario Meichle ◽  
Thomas Nellen
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Interest Rate Risk ◽  
Debt Maturity ◽  
Debt Management ◽  
Total Debt ◽  
Rate Risk ◽  
Rate Environment ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Lock In

Abstract This paper analyzes the Confederation’s debt management. The Confederation actively manages roll over and interest rate risk by increasing bond maturity with increasing marketable debt-to-GDP levels. It further engages in active but asymmetric, one-sided interest rate positioning; i.e., it uses mostly bonds to affect debt maturity and does so only when the interest rate environment is favorable to lock-in interest rates by issuing longer-term bonds. Debt management is mainly driven by marketable debt rather than total debt. Issuing behavior became more regular and demand-oriented during the early 1990s when marketable and total debt increased in tandem.

scholarly journals Valuing strategic investments under stochastic interest rates: A real option approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 89-97
Author(s):  
Luca Vincenzo Ballestra ◽  
Graziella Pacelli ◽  
Davide Radi
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Option Pricing ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Real Option ◽  
Interest Rate Risk ◽  
Stochastic Interest Rates ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
Rate Risk ◽  
Stochastic Interest ◽  
The Interest Rate

One of the most challenging issues in management is the valuation of strategic investments. In particular, when undertaking projects such as an expansion or the launch of a new brand, or an investment in R&D and intellectual capital, which are characterized by a long-term horizon, a firm has also to face the risk due to the interest rate. In this work, we propose to value investments subject to interest rate risk using a real options approach (Schulmerich, 2010). This task requires the typical technicalities of option pricing, which often rely on complex and time-consuming techniques to value investment projects. For instance, Schulmerich (2010) is, to the best of our knowledge, the first work where the interest rate risk is considered for real option analysis. Nevertheless, the valuation of investment projects is done by employing binomial trees, which are computationally very expensive. In the current paper, a different modeling framework (in continuous-time) for real option pricing is proposed which allows one to account for interest rate risk and, at the same time, to reduce computational complexity. In particular, the net present value of the cash inflows is specified by a geometric Brownian motion and the interest rate is modeled by using a process of Vasicek type, which is calibrated to real market data. Such an approach yields an explicit formula for valuing various kinds of investment strategies, such as the option to defer and the option to expand. Therefore, the one proposed is the first model in the field of real options that accounts for the interest rate risk and, at the same time, offers an easy to implement formula which makes the model itself very suitable for practitioners. An empirical analysis is presented which illustrates the proposed approach from the practical point-of-view and highlights the impact of stochastic interest rates in investment valuation.

scholarly journals Assessing influence of factors on interest risk of commercial bank

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 (1) ◽  
pp. 115-124
Author(s):  
Olga Mikhailovna Markova
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Commercial Bank ◽  
Industrial Development ◽  
The United States ◽  
Interest Rate Risk ◽  
Interest Income ◽  
Rate Risk ◽  
The Impact

In modern conditions of the rapid industrial development the banks have to forecast their risks and profitability precisely, to apply information technologies to assess their activities. To evaluate the bank's income, it is necessary to carry out an internal analysis of its assets and liabilities and determine the factors effecting the bank's profitability by managing interest rate risk. The hypothesis of the study is the analysis of the impact on the net interest income and interest rate risk of a commercial bank of factors such as the exchange rate and the key rate of the Bank of Russia (for example, Sberbank, PJSC). There has been studied the impact of the factors (exchange rate and key interest rate of Central Bank of Russia) on the bank's net interest income by using correlation and regression analysis and building a regression model. Many tools are found to be used by the experienced analysts. One of the main tools is GAP analysis of interest rate risk. There have been illustrated the graphs of changes in interest rates of savings and loan associations during the crisis in the United States in the 1950-1960, of realization of interest rate risk with an increase in interest rates, the distribution of assets and liabilities according to the maturity of the balance sheet structure, the impact of changes in the interest rate GAP on net interest income, etc. A matrix of correlations of all variables in the sample (rates of growing values) was constructed. Conclusions are drawn on the need to use hedging instruments (interest rate swaps, interest rate options), as well as of attracting the most reliable data on the state of interest rate risk in the commercial banks.

Research on the Interest Rate Risk Management of Commercial Bank Based on F-W Duration Convexity Model

2014 ◽  
Vol 644-650 ◽  
pp. 5825-5827
Author(s):  
Feng Liu ◽  
Ping Zou
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Commercial Banks ◽  
Interest Rate Risk ◽  
Rate Risk ◽  
Interest Rate Risk Management ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Marketization Reform ◽  
Management Capabilities

With the pace of interest rate marketization reform accelerates, interest rate risk faced by commercial banks increasingly prominent, so a higher demand for its interest rate risk management capabilities is required. This article describes the type of interest rate risk, then use F-W Duration Convexity model to make an empirical analysis in five large commercial banks. The results show: the five large bank duration and convexity gap are all positive, when interest rates rise, the five bank NV will be reduced, interest rates decline, then increased. According to ΔNV/PA, ICBC CCB and ABC faced the biggest interest rate risk, BOC followed, BCM minimum.

Nexus Between Interest Rate Risk and Economic Value of Equity of Banks

2021 ◽  
pp. 097215092110394
Author(s):  
Soundariya G. ◽  
Treesa Aleena David ◽  
Suresh G.
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Economic Value ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Interest Rate Risk ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Market Risks ◽  
Rate Risk ◽  
The Impact

This analytical study looks to provide recommendations to the banking sector on different policies and regulations by examining certain aspects of the Basel III accord, which was designed to manage specific operational, capital and market risks of banks. A review of extant literature reveals that only a few papers have been written on simulation-based approaches, using basis and re-pricing risks. We look to connect this as a source while attempting to define and measure the impact of interest rate risk (IRR) on the economic value of equity (EVE) of banks. We propose to use the driver—driven method, wherein interest rate shocks are derived through prime lending rate (PLR) for the period of 2016–2019 in the context of India. Monte Carlo Simulation and OLS regression was performed to predict the IRR; Granger causality was used to examine the cause and effect relationship; the impulse response function (IRF) was used for sensitivity analysis; and the vector error correction model (VECM) technique was used for co-integrating relationships. Notably, the EVE movement caused due to shocks in interest rates had to be traced as it envisages probable EVE losses. Importantly, our study is among the first few to show the relationship between IRR and EVE of banks, especially after the deregulation of Indian banking sector.

scholarly journals Risk of Interest Rates at the Level of Commercial Banks in Romania

2017 ◽  
Vol 22 (4) ◽  
pp. 281-288
Author(s):  
Ioana Raluca Sbârcea
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Commercial Banks ◽  
Asset Price ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Interest Rate Risk ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Risk Indicators ◽  
Rate Risk ◽  
The Interest Rate

Abstract The banking system in Romania is a banking system under development, subject to fluctuations that exist on the market more than on more developed banking systems, fluctuations that can generate losses for banks if they are not properly managed. The losses that may be generated by these fluctuations, known as market risk, refer to the significant fluctuations in three indicators, namely the interest rate, the exchange rate and the asset price. In this article, I will analyse the interest rate risk from a conceptual point of view and the indicators that mitigate this risk. The analysis also contains a study of this risk among commercial banks in the system to highlight the level of risk and possible effects of its manifestation. I calculated and analysed the interest rate risk indicators, individually for the first three banks in the system, but also to comparatively, in order to highlight the existing differences.

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