A methodology for monitoring and modeling of high altitude Alpine catchments

2017 ◽  
Vol 41 (4) ◽  
pp. 393-420 ◽  
Author(s):  
A Soncini ◽  
D Bocchiola ◽  
RS Azzoni ◽  
G Diolaiuti

Hydrological monitoring and modeling of high altitude Alpine catchments is of paramount importance. This is difficult, however, given the complex logistics of field campaigns and the need for long-term data. Here, we present a method for long term monitoring of high altitude catchments, which we tested within the Alps of Italy. This includes i) extensive gathering of climate data and hydrological fluxes, ii) high altitude field campaigns, and iii) robust physically based glacio-hydrological modeling, providing full account of ice flow, ice and snow ablation, and stream flows. We present an application of this method based on six years (2009–2014) of field monitoring in the Dosdè catchment, in the Italian Alps (17 km2, average altitude 2858 masl, outlet 2133 masl), nesting 1.90 km2 of glaciers. We demonstrate that i) high altitude Alpine catchments can be monitored in spite of geographical complexity, and ii) a data based approach delivers accurate stream flow estimates and improves our knowledge of flow components in the high altitudes. We then provide some estimates of the recent glaciers’ dynamics, and water resources from this high-altitude catchment, paradigmatic of the recent cryospheric evolution in the Alps of Italy. We estimated an average ice mass loss nearby −1.76E8 m3yr−1, i.e. −20% of the ice mass in 2009, possibly pointing to accelerated glaciers’ down wasting. Instream discharges increased (+0.12 m3s−1y−1); however, this requires further monitoring. We then benchmark our findings against recent studies in the Alps, and other glacierized areas worldwide, displaying similarities in present glaciers’ dynamics. We suggest that our robust, yet flexible approach can be used for glacio-hydrological investigation in Alpine (and generally mountain) rivers, and for conjectures of potential future hydrological cycle under climate scenarios.

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aurélien Gallice ◽  
Mathias Bavay ◽  
Tristan Brauchli ◽  
Francesco Comola ◽  
Michael Lehning ◽  
...  

Abstract. Climate change is expected to strongly impact the hydrological and thermal regimes of Alpine rivers within the coming decades. In this context, the development of hydrological models accounting for the specific dynamics of Alpine catchments appears as a one of the promising approaches to reduce our uncertainty on future mountain hydrology. This paper describes the improvements brought to StreamFlow, an existing model for hydrological and stream temperature prediction built as an external extension to the physically-based snow model Alpine3D. StreamFlow's source code has been entirely written anew, taking advantage of object-oriented programming to significantly improve its structure and ease the implementation of future developments. The source code is now publicly available online, along with a complete documentation. A special emphasis has been put on modularity during the re-implementation of StreamFlow, so that many model aspects can be represented using different alternatives. For example, several options are now available to model the advection of water within the stream. This allows for an easy and fast comparison between different approaches and helps in defining more reliable uncertainty estimates of the model forecasts. In particular, a case study in a Swiss Alpine catchment reveals that the stream temperature predictions are particularly sensitive to the approach used to model the temperature of subsurface runoff, a fact which has been poorly reported in the literature to date. Based on the case study, StreamFlow is shown to reproduce hourly mean discharge with a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of 0.82, and hourly mean temperature with a NSE of 0.78.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Banafsheh Abdollahi ◽  
Rolf Hut ◽  
Nick van de Giesen

<p>Irrigation is crucial for sustaining food security for the growing population around the world. Irrigation affects the hydrological cycle both directly, during the process of water abstraction and irrigation, and indirectly, because of infrastructures that have been built in support of irrigation, such as canals, dams, reservoirs, and drainage systems. For evaluating the availability of freshwater resources in the light of growing food demand, modeling the global hydrological cycle is vital. The GlobWat model is one of the models that have been designed for large scale hydrological modeling, with a specific focus on considering irrigated agriculture water use. Both models’ underlying assumptions and the global input data sets used to feed the model could be sources of uncertainty in the output. One of the most challenging input data sets in global hydrological models is the climate input data set. There are several climate forcings available on a global scale like ERA5 and ERA-Interim. In this study, we assess the sensitivity of the GlobWat model to these climate forcing. Pre-processing climate data at a large scale used to be difficult. Recently, this has become much easier by data and scripts provided by eWaterCycle team at the eSience center, Amsterdam, The Netherlands. We will use eWaterCycle's freely available data sources for our assessment and then we will compare the model results with observed data at a local scale.</p>


2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bing Gao ◽  
Dawen Yang ◽  
Yue Qin ◽  
Yuhan Wang ◽  
Hongyi Li ◽  
...  

Abstract. Frozen ground has an important role in regional hydrological cycle and ecosystem, especially on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, which is characterized by high elevation and a dry climate. This study modified a distributed physically-based hydrological model and applied it to simulate the long-term (from 1961 to 2013) change of frozen ground and its effect on hydrology in the upper Heihe basin located at Northeast Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. The model was validated carefully against data obtained from multiple ground-based observations. The model results showed that the permafrost area shrank by 9.5 % (approximately 600 km2), especially in areas with elevation between 3500 m and 3900 m. The maximum frozen depth of seasonally frozen ground decreased at a rate of approximately 4.1 cm/10 yr, and the active layer depth over the permafrost increased by about 2.2 cm/10 yr. Runoff increased significantly during cold seasons (November–March) due to the increase in liquid soil moisture caused by rising soil temperature. Areas where permafrost changed into the seasonally frozen ground at high elevation showed especially large changes in runoff. Annual runoff increased due to increased precipitation, the base flow increased due to permafrost degradation, and the actual evapotranspiration increased significantly due to increased precipitation and soil warming. The groundwater storage showed an increasing trend, which indicated that the groundwater recharge was enhanced due to the degradation of permafrost in the study area.


2020 ◽  
Vol 163 ◽  
pp. 01006
Author(s):  
Andrey Kalugin ◽  
Liudmila Lebedeva

The study aims at the analysis of the long-term hydrometeorological data and hydrological modelling at the small permafrost Shestakovka river basin. The basin has postponed reaction to precipitation on different time scales from days to years. Annual, seasonal and monthly streamflow has higher correlation with precipitation sum for corresponding and antecedent time intervals than for the corresponding period only. It suggests importance of water storage and slow water release in the runoff generation that could be related to the suprapermafrost talik aquifers found in the river basin. A spatially distributed physically-based ECOMAG model was applied to the Shestakovka River basin. Evaluation of the simulated river runoff, soil moisture and snow water equivalent was carried out over a period 1990-2014. Obtained NSE 0.59 and BIAS 3% could be considered as satisfactory modelling results taking into account high inter annual and seasonal observed streamflow variability under much less variable meteorological conditions. Better understanding and modelling of the complex interactions between permafrost and hydrological processes is important for development of reliable flood forecasts and long-term future projections under changing climate and growing economical interests to cold regions.


2007 ◽  
Vol 158 (11) ◽  
pp. 349-352
Author(s):  
Grégory Amos ◽  
Ambroise Marchand ◽  
Anja Schneiter ◽  
Annina Sorg

The last Capricorns (Capra ibex ibex) in the Alps survived during the nineteenth century in the Aosta valley thanks to the royal hunting reservation (today Gran Paradiso national park). Capricorns from this reservation were successfully re-introduced in Switzerland after its Capricorn population had disappeared. Currently in Switzerland there are 13200 Capricorns. Every year 1000 are hunted in order to prevent a large variation and overaging of their population and the damage of pasture. In contrast, in the Gran Paradiso national park the game population regulates itself naturally for over eighty years. There are large fluctuations in the Capricorn population (2600–5000) which are most likely due to the climate, amount of snow, population density and to the interactions of these factors. The long-term surveys in the Gran Paradiso national park and the investigations of the capacity of this area are a valuable example for the optimal management of the ibexes in Switzerland.


2020 ◽  
Vol 287 (1928) ◽  
pp. 20200538
Author(s):  
Warren S. D. Tennant ◽  
Mike J. Tildesley ◽  
Simon E. F. Spencer ◽  
Matt J. Keeling

Plague, caused by Yersinia pestis infection, continues to threaten low- and middle-income countries throughout the world. The complex interactions between rodents and fleas with their respective environments challenge our understanding of human plague epidemiology. Historical long-term datasets of reported plague cases offer a unique opportunity to elucidate the effects of climate on plague outbreaks in detail. Here, we analyse monthly plague deaths and climate data from 25 provinces in British India from 1898 to 1949 to generate insights into the influence of temperature, rainfall and humidity on the occurrence, severity and timing of plague outbreaks. We find that moderate relative humidity levels of between 60% and 80% were strongly associated with outbreaks. Using wavelet analysis, we determine that the nationwide spread of plague was driven by changes in humidity, where, on average, a one-month delay in the onset of rising humidity translated into a one-month delay in the timing of plague outbreaks. This work can inform modern spatio-temporal predictive models for the disease and aid in the development of early-warning strategies for the deployment of prophylactic treatments and other control measures.


2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mojtaba Sadeghi ◽  
Phu Nguyen ◽  
Matin Rahnamay Naeini ◽  
Kuolin Hsu ◽  
Dan Braithwaite ◽  
...  

AbstractAccurate long-term global precipitation estimates, especially for heavy precipitation rates, at fine spatial and temporal resolutions is vital for a wide variety of climatological studies. Most of the available operational precipitation estimation datasets provide either high spatial resolution with short-term duration estimates or lower spatial resolution with long-term duration estimates. Furthermore, previous research has stressed that most of the available satellite-based precipitation products show poor performance for capturing extreme events at high temporal resolution. Therefore, there is a need for a precipitation product that reliably detects heavy precipitation rates with fine spatiotemporal resolution and a longer period of record. Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Cloud Classification System-Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CCS-CDR) is designed to address these limitations. This dataset provides precipitation estimates at 0.04° spatial and 3-hourly temporal resolutions from 1983 to present over the global domain of 60°S to 60°N. Evaluations of PERSIANN-CCS-CDR and PERSIANN-CDR against gauge and radar observations show the better performance of PERSIANN-CCS-CDR in representing the spatiotemporal resolution, magnitude, and spatial distribution patterns of precipitation, especially for extreme events.


2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (9) ◽  
pp. 5000
Author(s):  
Iqbal Owadally ◽  
Jean-René Mwizere ◽  
Neema Kalidas ◽  
Kalyanie Murugesu ◽  
Muhammad Kashif

We consider whether sustainable investment can deliver performance comparable to conventional investment in investors’ long-term retirement plans. On the capital markets, sustainable investment can be achieved through various instruments and strategies, one of them being investment in mutual funds that subscribe to ESG (environmental, social, and governance) principles. First, we compare the investment performance of ESG funds with matched conventional funds over the period 1994–2020, in Europe and the U.S. We find no significant evidence of differing performance (at 5% level) despite using a number of investment performance metrics. Second, we perform a historical backtest to model a UK personal retirement plan from 2000 till 2020, taking full account of investment management fees and transaction costs. We find that investing in an index-tracker fund overlaid with ESG screening delivers a pension which is 10.4% larger than is achieved if the index-tracker fund is used without screening. This is also 20.2% larger than is achieved by investing in a collection of actively managed funds with a sustainable purpose. We conclude that an ESG-screened long-term passive investment approach for retirement plans is likely to be successful in satisfying the twin objectives of a secure retirement income and of sustainability.


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