Leader Tenure, Genocide, and Politicide During Civil War

2021 ◽  
pp. 106591292110584
Author(s):  
Gary Uzonyi
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Statistical Analysis ◽  
Opposition Group

Why do some governments engage in genocide or politicide during civil war while others do not? I argue that leader tenure influences bargaining possibilities between the regime and rebels. Rebels face less uncertainty about a longer-tenured leader’s willingness to commit to concessions to end the conflict with terms that better the rebels’ position. This narrows the longer-tenured leader’s ability to credibly offer the rebels concessions. Facing a constrained bargaining environment, longer-tenured leaders become more likely to turn to atrocity in an effort to fully defeat the opposition group and its supporters. Statistical analysis of all genocide and politicide in civil war since 1946 supports this claim. Evidence from Milosevic’s atrocities in Kosovo help illustrate the mechanisms.

Home Rulers in a New Ireland, 1935–49

2020 ◽  
pp. 169-196
Author(s):  
Martin O'Donoghue
Keyword(s):  
World War Ii ◽  
Civil War ◽  
Statistical Analysis ◽  
World War I ◽  
Spanish Civil War ◽  
Social Organisation ◽  
Free State ◽  
Home Rule ◽  
World War ◽  
Border Areas

This chapter examines how such individuals from Irish Party backgrounds coped with the shift from Free State to republic as independent Ireland faced challenges at home and abroad. It charts the struggle of the AOH to reinvent itself as a Catholic social organisation which retained lingering vitality in the border areas while statistical analysis illuminates the home rule legacy in Fine Gael, disclosing that between 30% and 40% of its deputies up to 1949 had traceable Irish Party roots. This chapter analyses responses of such figures to the Spanish Civil War; the introduction of the new constitution, Bunreacht na hÉireann: Irish neutrality during World War II; and the controversial declaration of a republic by Fine Gael Taoiseach John A. Costello — a home ruler in his youth and leader of a government including individuals such as James Dillon, Bridget Redmond, Alfie Byrne, and ex-MP and World War I veteran John Lymbrick Esmonde.

Ending Civil Wars: A Case for Rebel Victory?

2010 ◽  
Vol 34 (4) ◽  
pp. 7-36 ◽  
Author(s):  
Monica Duffy Toft
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Statistical Analysis ◽  
Policy Analysis ◽  
Civil Wars ◽  
The Other ◽  
War Termination ◽  
Negotiated Settlement ◽  
Long Term Stability ◽  
Negotiated Settlements

Since 1990, negotiated settlements have become the preferred means for settling civil wars. Historically, however, these types of settlements have proven largely ineffective: civil wars ended by negotiated settlement are more likely to recur than those ending in victory by one side or the other. A theoretical and statistical analysis of how civil wars end reveals that the type of ending influences the prospects for longer-term outcomes. An examination of all civil war endings since 1940 finds that rebel victories are more likely to secure the peace than are negotiated settlements. A statistical analysis of civil wars from 1940 to 2002 and the case of Uganda illustrate why rebel victories result in more stable outcomes. Expanding scholarly and policy analysis of civil war termination types beyond the current default of negotiated settlement to include victories provides a much larger set of cases and variables to draw upon to enhance understanding of the conditions most likely to support long-term stability, democracy, and prosperity.

Getting Religion? The Puzzling Case of Islam and Civil War

2007 ◽  
Vol 31 (4) ◽  
pp. 97-131 ◽  
Author(s):  
Monica Duffy Toft
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Statistical Analysis ◽  
Civil Wars ◽  
Political Elites ◽  
Role Of Religion ◽  
Petroleum Reserves ◽  
Religious Obligation

From 1940 to 2000, Islam was involved in a disproportionately high number of civil wars compared with other religions, such as Christianity or Hinduism. To help explain the overrepresentation of Islam in these wars, this article introduces a theory of “religious outbidding.” The theory holds that embattled political elites will tender religious bids when they calculate that increasing their religious legitimacy will strengthen their chances of survival. In combination with three overlapping factors—the historical absence of an internecine religious civil war similar to the Thirty Years’ War in Europe, proximity of Islam's holiest sites to Israel and large petroleum reserves, and jihad (i.e., defense of Islam as a religious obligation), religious outbidding accounts for Islam's higher representation in religious civil wars. The article includes a statistical analysis of the role of religion in civil wars and tests the logic of the argument of religious outbidding in the case of Sudan's two civil wars.

Religion as a Peacemaker? Peace Duration after Ethnic Civil Wars

2016 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 339-362 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mehmet Gurses ◽  
Nicolas Rost
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Ethnic Group ◽  
Civil Wars ◽  
Positive Relationship ◽  
Opposition Group ◽  
Peace Duration ◽  
Durable Peace

AbstractWhat role does religion play in preventing civil war from recurring? Politicians have proposed that when warring groups share the same religion, achieving a durable peace will be easier. We test this hypothesis empirically using a large-nsample of all ethnic civil wars that began and ended between 1950 and 2006, and a measure of co-religiosity between the ethnic group in power and the main opposition group. The analysis shows that there is no positive relationship between co-religiosity and the duration of post-civil war peace, showing that sharing the same religion may not help to bring about peace following an ethnic civil war. To the contrary, the closer religious ties, the less likely it is that peace will last after the end of the conflict, and the higher the risk that conflict will recur.

Excluded Ethnic Groups, Conflict Contagion, and the Onset of Genocide and Politicide during Civil War

2020 ◽  
Vol 64 (4) ◽  
pp. 857-866
Author(s):  
Gary Uzonyi ◽  
Burak Demir
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Statistical Analysis ◽  
Ethnic Groups ◽  
Civil Wars ◽  
The Government

Abstract Why do some governments commit genocide or politicide during civil war? It is well established that opposition groups learn from each other and that rebellion by one group encourages rebellion by others. Governments understand this dynamic. When a government excludes several ethnic groups from power, it worries that rebellion by one excluded group may invite challenges by other groups simultaneously. Therefore, when fighting one excluded group, increasing the number of additional excluded groups provides the government two incentives to engage in atrocity. First, the government hopes to ward off other challengers by demonstrating its brutality. Second, the government hopes to win its war quickly by destroying the rebels’ support base to reallocate its resources in case of further rebellions. Statistical analysis of all civil wars since 1946 reveals that governments fighting against the backdrop of additional excluded ethnic groups are more likely to commit genocide or politicide than other regimes.

Negotiating with Insurgents: Changing Perceptions or Changing Politics?

2013 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 177-194 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brian R. Urlacher
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Statistical Analysis ◽  
Leadership Change ◽  
Intrastate Conflicts ◽  
The Face

Abstract High costs have long been seen as motivating conflict participants to seek peace. This article discusses two types of deviations from the “hurting-stalemate” logic: negotiations in the absence of high costs and non-negotiation in the face of high costs. Two prominent explanations for these deviations are discussed and evaluated, initially through a statistical analysis of peace overtures in intrastate conflicts and then through a case study of the Indian civil war in Kashmir. The results suggest that theoretical explanations focusing on the preferences and political strength of leaders have traction at all levels of violence. Variables associated with shifts in perception, such as leadership change or political shocks, seem to have different effects as the level of violence in a conflict changes.

Statistical analysis of classification

1966 ◽  
Vol 24 ◽  
pp. 188-189
Author(s):  
T. J. Deeming
Keyword(s):  
Multivariate Analysis ◽  
Statistical Analysis ◽  
Classification Scheme ◽  
Analytical Procedure ◽  
Narrow Band ◽  
Scientific Research ◽  
Maximum Amount ◽  
Amount Of Information

If we make a set of measurements, such as narrow-band or multicolour photo-electric measurements, which are designed to improve a scheme of classification, and in particular if they are designed to extend the number of dimensions of classification, i.e. the number of classification parameters, then some important problems of analytical procedure arise. First, it is important not to reproduce the errors of the classification scheme which we are trying to improve. Second, when trying to extend the number of dimensions of classification we have little or nothing with which to test the validity of the new parameters.Problems similar to these have occurred in other areas of scientific research (notably psychology and education) and the branch of Statistics called Multivariate Analysis has been developed to deal with them. The techniques of this subject are largely unknown to astronomers, but, if carefully applied, they should at the very least ensure that the astronomer gets the maximum amount of information out of his data and does not waste his time looking for information which is not there. More optimistically, these techniques are potentially capable of indicating the number of classification parameters necessary and giving specific formulas for computing them, as well as pinpointing those particular measurements which are most crucial for determining the classification parameters.

Quantitative parallel EELS spectrum imaging developed as a new tool in AEM

1992 ◽  
Vol 50 (2) ◽  
pp. 1202-1203
Author(s):  
Gianluigi Botton ◽  
Gilles L'espérance
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Analysis ◽  
Spatial Resolution ◽  
Personal Computer ◽  
Systematic Study ◽  
Present Author ◽  
Chemical Elements ◽  
Detection Limits ◽  
Research Groups ◽  
Quantitative Performance ◽  
Spectrum Imaging

As interest for parallel EELS spectrum imaging grows in laboratories equipped with commercial spectrometers, different approaches were used in recent years by a few research groups in the development of the technique of spectrum imaging as reported in the literature. Either by controlling, with a personal computer both the microsope and the spectrometer or using more powerful workstations interfaced to conventional multichannel analysers with commercially available programs to control the microscope and the spectrometer, spectrum images can now be obtained. Work on the limits of the technique, in terms of the quantitative performance was reported, however, by the present author where a systematic study of artifacts detection limits, statistical errors as a function of desired spatial resolution and range of chemical elements to be studied in a map was carried out The aim of the present paper is to show an application of quantitative parallel EELS spectrum imaging where statistical analysis is performed at each pixel and interpretation is carried out using criteria established from the statistical analysis and variations in composition are analyzed with the help of information retreived from t/γ maps so that artifacts are avoided.

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