Should Public Opinion Polls Make Election Forecasts?

1949 ◽  
Vol 26 (2) ◽  
pp. 131-144
Author(s):  
Gideon Seymour ◽  
Archibald Crossley ◽  
Paul F. Lazarsfeld ◽  
George Gallup
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
The Political ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Public Opinion Polls ◽  
Opinion Polls

Since the political upset last November, opinion has been divided on the question of whether pollsters should continue predicting election results. Here are the views of an editor, two poll-takers, and a communications scientist. By a vote of three to one, their answer to the question is “Yes!”

Introduction

2018 ◽  
Vol 36 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-4
Author(s):  
Eric Lagenbacher
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Election Outcome ◽  
The Political ◽  
Special Issue ◽  
Political Situation ◽  
German Politics ◽  
Left Party ◽  
Public Opinion Polls ◽  
Opinion Polls

Although it has not been that long since the articles of the previous special issue devoted to the 2017 Bundestag election and its aftermath have been published, the political situation in Germany appears to have stabilized. After almost six months without a new government, German politics has sunk back into a kind of late-Merkel era normality. Public opinion polls continue to show that the CDU/CSU is slightly above its election outcome, the SPD is still down in the 17–18 percent range, the FDP has lost about 2 percent of its support, while the AfD, Greens and Left Party are up 1–2 percent.

scholarly journals An Improved Non-Face-to-Face, Contactless Preference Survey System

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-7
Author(s):  
KwangCheol Rim
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Facial Expressions ◽  
Facial Recognition ◽  
Recognition Rate ◽  
Recognition Algorithm ◽  
Survey System ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Actual Response ◽  
Public Opinion Polls ◽  
Opinion Polls

Conventional election-related public opinion polls have utilized the automated response system (ARS) method. The ARS public opinion polls are predicated on the convenience of use and require random telephonic responses. However, the actual response rate is less than 5%. As a result, discrepancies between recent public opinion polls and the actual election results have become an issue. In this study, we propose a system that quantifies the preferences by region, age, and gender by quantifying emotions based on the behaviors and facial expressions of the citizens passing by at the campaign site and utilizes them as basic statistics. Furthermore, a previously published facial recognition artificial intelligence (AI) was used to obtain age, gender, and various facial recognition data, along with citizens’ emotions. The published facial recognition AI produced stability of over 99% recognition rate. The data structure followed a weighted reverse tree structure, and facial expressions, gender, and age were analyzed using the published facial recognition algorithm. Moreover, the expressions as well as the behaviors showing emotions were merged to gather and analyze data with weights.

scholarly journals La disputa social por el Distrito Federal

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juan Reyes del Campillo Lona
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Mexico City ◽  
Selection Process ◽  
The Political ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Social ◽  
Distrito Federal ◽  
Public Opinion Polls ◽  
Opinion Polls ◽  
Ruling Party

This paper analyzes the stages of the 2006 election in Mexico City and examines the social conflict that polarized the political figures as well as the electorate. It also talks about the selection process of the candidates, particularly those of the ruling party, as well as the campaigns and their impact on the public opinion polls and, finally, it analyzes the final results. The election showed an evident division or tension line among the electorate that entails a strong social and ideological content.

Printmedia poll reporting in Poland: Poll as news in Polish parliamentary campaigns, 1991–2007

2011 ◽  
Vol 44 (1) ◽  
pp. 63-72 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Szwed
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Political Actors ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Media ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Public Opinion Polls ◽  
Minimal Disclosure ◽  
Opinion Polls ◽  
The Way

Information about the support given by the public opinion to political actors has become a constant element of the public debate in Poland after the fall of Communism. Very soon polls became an argument in debates, a premise, or a way to justify decisions. At the same time they were criticized both by politicians and journalists convinced that polls can significantly influence the election results. But the fact was not noticed in Poland that all debates about the influence of polls on election outcomes should be preceded by a discussion of the way they are presented in the media. The present article joins this debate by subjecting to analysis the polls published in the Polish press during parliamentary campaigns in the dimensions of the role they played during the recent several years, the quality of methodological information, and of the way the polls were used in the media. As opposed to European and American analyses, no improvement in the conformity to standards of minimal disclosure in newspapers’ reporting of public opinion polls was noticed, although—like in other countries—a dramatic increase in the number of polls reported was observed.

scholarly journals L'évolution de l'opinion publique belge : 1971-1974

Res Publica ◽  
1974 ◽  
Vol 16 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 347-371
Author(s):  
Nicole Delruelle-Vosswinkel
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Latent Class ◽  
The Political ◽  
Political Climate ◽  
Voting Decisions ◽  
The Moment ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Public Opinion Polls ◽  
Opinion Polls ◽  
Voting Intentions

The article presents some of the results of public opinion polls that were carried out as a part of a panel poll, organized by the «Institut Universitaire de Sondage d'Opinion Publique» and covering 1.500 belgian voters.The article specifically deals with the following items - the meaning of the votes shift between 1971 and 1974 (as far as voting intentions were concerned) ;- the moment at which voting decisions crystallized in the 10-3-74 elections;- the way in which the political climate was perceived, and the predominant cares voters had before the elections;- the impact of certain attitudes on votes shifting: an analysis of these processes (specifically by the latent class approach).

Public Opinion Polls on Japan

1950 ◽  
Vol 19 (10) ◽  
pp. 101-103
Author(s):  
Arthur N. Feraru
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Public Opinion Polls ◽  
Opinion Polls

Growing Inequality and Public Awareness of Inequality in the States

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
William W. Franko ◽  
Christopher Witko
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Income Inequality ◽  
Public Awareness ◽  
Public Concern ◽  
The Public ◽  
Political Conditions ◽  
Perceptions Of Inequality ◽  
Public Opinion Polls ◽  
Opinion Polls

Here the authors present the variation that exists in income inequality across the states, and variation in public awareness or concern about income inequality as measured by public opinion polls. Though politicians may decide to tackle income inequality even in the absence of public concern about inequality, the authors argue that government responses are more likely when and where there is a growing awareness of, and concern about, inequality, which is confirmed in the analyses in this book. To examine this question in subsequent chapters, a novel measure of public awareness of rising state inequality is developed. Using these estimates, this chapter shows that the growth in the public concern about inequality responds in part to objective increases in inequality, but also that state political conditions, particularly mass partisanship, shape perceptions of inequality.

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