Risk Factors for Adolescent Sex Offender Recidivism: Evaluation of Predictive Factors and Comparison of Three Groups Based Upon Victim Type

Sexual Abuse ◽  
2006 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 319-342 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gregory A. Parks ◽  
David E. Bard
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Predictive Factors ◽  
Sex Offender ◽  
Adolescent Sex Offender ◽  
Sex Offender Recidivism

Predicting Persistent Developmental Stuttering Using a Cumulative Risk Approach

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-26
Author(s):  
Cara M. Singer ◽  
Sango Otieno ◽  
Soo-Eun Chang ◽  
Robin M. Jones
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Predictive Factors ◽  
Language Skills ◽  
Speech Sound ◽  
Cumulative Risk ◽  
Standard Score ◽  
Persistent Developmental Stuttering ◽  
Risk Approach ◽  
Developmental Stuttering

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to explore how well a cumulative risk approach, based on empirically supported predictive factors, predicts whether a young child who stutters is likely to develop persistent developmental stuttering. In a cumulative risk approach, the number of predictive factors indicating a child is at risk to develop persistent stuttering is evaluated, and a greater number of indicators of risk are hypothesized to confer greater risk of persistent stuttering. Method: We combined extant data on 3- to 5-year-old children who stutter from two longitudinal studies to identify cutoff values for continuous predictive factors (e.g., speech and language skills, age at onset, time since onset, stuttering frequency) and, in combination with binary predictors (e.g., sex, family history of stuttering), used all-subsets regression and receiver operating characteristic curves to compare the predictive validity of different combinations of 10 risk factors. The optimal combination of predictive factors and the odds of a child developing persistent stuttering based on an increasing number of factors were calculated. Results: Based on 67 children who stutter (i.e., 44 persisting and 23 recovered) with relatively strong speech-language skills, the predictive factor model that yielded the best predictive validity was based on time since onset (≥ 19 months), speech sound skills (≤ 115 standard score), expressive language skills (≤ 106 standard score), and stuttering severity (≥ 17 Stuttering Severity Instrument total score). When the presence of at least two predictive factors was used to confer elevated risk to develop persistent stuttering, the model yielded 93% sensitivity and 65% specificity. As a child presented with a greater number of these four risk factors, the odds for persistent stuttering increased. Conclusions: Findings support the use of a cumulative risk approach and the predictive utility of assessing multiple domains when evaluating a child's risk of developing persistent stuttering. Clinical implications and future directions are discussed.

Sex Offender Recidivism Revisited

2015 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 105-117 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bitna Kim ◽  
Peter J. Benekos ◽  
Alida V. Merlo
Keyword(s):  
Sex Offender ◽  
Sex Offender Recidivism

scholarly journals Development of Predictive Nomograms for Clinical Use to Quantify the Risk of Amputation in Patients with Diabetic Foot Ulcer

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-9
Author(s):  
Bocheng Peng ◽  
Rui Min ◽  
Yiqin Liao ◽  
Aixi Yu
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Predictive Factors ◽  
Diabetic Foot ◽  
Univariate Analysis ◽  
Foot Ulcer ◽  
Diabetic Foot Ulcer ◽  
Single Factor ◽  
Independent Risk Factors

Objective. To determine the novel proposed nomogram model accuracy in the prediction of the lower-extremity amputations (LEA) risk in diabetic foot ulcer (DFU). Methods and Materials. In this retrospective study, data of 125 patients with diabetic foot ulcer who met the research criteria in Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University from January 2015 to December 2019 were collected by filling in the clinical investigation case report form. Firstly, univariate analysis was used to find the primary predictive factors of amputation in patients with diabetic foot ulcer. Secondly, single factor and multiple factor logistic regression analysis were employed to screen the independent influencing factors of amputation introducing the primary predictive factors selected from the univariate analysis. Thirdly, the independent influencing factors were applied to build a prediction model of amputation risk in patients with diabetic foot ulcer by using R4.3; then, the nomogram was established according to the selected variables visually. Finally, the performance of the prediction model was evaluated and verified by receiver working characteristic (ROC) curve, corrected calibration curve, and clinical decision curve. Results. 7 primary predictive factors were selected by univariate analysis from 21 variables, including the course of diabetes, peripheral angiopathy of diabetic (PAD), glycosylated hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), white blood cells (WBC), albumin (ALB), blood uric acid (BUA), and fibrinogen (FIB); single factor logistic regression analysis showed that albumin was a protective factor for amputation in patients with diabetic foot ulcer, and the other six factors were risk factors. Multivariate logical regression analysis illustrated that only five factors (the course of diabetes, PAD, HbA1c, WBC, and FIB) were independent risk factors for amputation in patients with diabetic foot ulcer. According to the area under curve (AUC) of ROC was 0.876 and corrected calibration curve of the nomogram displayed good fitting ability, the model established by these 5 independent risk factors exhibited good ability to predict the risk of amputation. The decision analysis curve (DCA) indicated that the nomogram model was more practical and accurate when the risk threshold was between 6% and 91%. Conclusion. Our novel proposed nomogram showed that the course of diabetes, PAD, HbA1c, WBC, and FIB are the independent risk factors of amputation in patients with DFU. This prediction model was well developed and behaved a great accurate value for LEA so as to provide a useful tool for screening LEA risk and preventing DFU from developing into amputation.

scholarly journals Factors Associated with Prolonged Hospital Stay: a Retrospective Study for Imported Malaria Cases

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liang Huang ◽  
Hong Jin ◽  
Hong Zhang ◽  
Yang Liu ◽  
Xinxing Shi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Bacterial Infection ◽  
Hospital Stay ◽  
Predictive Factors ◽  
Imported Malaria ◽  
Health Concern ◽  
P Value ◽  
Prolonged Hospital Stay ◽  
Imported Cases ◽  
Prolonged Hospital

Abstract Background China had entered post-elimination era for malaria, however, the imported cases are continuously are a public health concern as the increasing number of cases. In this study we studied the potential predictive factors for prolonged hospital stay for imported malaria patients. Material and Methods We retrospectively collected patients of imported malaria cases data from 2017–2020 in our hospital. we analyzed the data from clinical, epidemiological, geographical, and seasonal points of view, and used cox proportional hazard model to find the predictive factors for prolonged hospital stay. Results We found most of imported cases were from Democratic Republic of the Congo(23%, 34/150) and most cases 74%(26/34) were infected by P. falciparum. Through Edwards Test, no significant seasonality of imported cases were found(χ2 = 2.51 p-value = 0.28). We found bacterial infection(HR = 0.58, p-value = 0.01) and thrombocytopenia(HR = 0.66, p-value = 0.02) were protective factors for discharge, that were, the risk factors for prolonged hospital stay. Conclusions The imported cases are the major risk of malaria in post-elimination era of China. The bacterial infection and thrombocytopenia were the risk factors for prolonged hospital stay.

Predictive Factors for Interstitial Lung Disease, Antitumor Response, and Survival in Non–Small-Cell Lung Cancer Patients Treated With Gefitinib

2006 ◽  
Vol 24 (16) ◽  
pp. 2549-2556 ◽  
Author(s):  
Masahiko Ando ◽  
Isamu Okamoto ◽  
Nobuyuki Yamamoto ◽  
Koji Takeda ◽  
Kenji Tamura ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Lung Cancer ◽  
Adverse Effect ◽  
Interstitial Lung Disease ◽  
Small Cell Lung Cancer ◽  
Predictive Factors ◽  
Small Cell ◽  
Small Cell Lung ◽  
Antitumor Response ◽  
History Of

Purpose Interstitial lung disease (ILD) is a serious adverse effect of gefitinib, but its prevalence and risk factors remain largely unknown. We examined the prevalence of and risk factors for gefitinib-induced ILD associated with practical use of the drug in Japanese with non–small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Patients and Methods Clinical information was retrospectively assembled for NSCLC patients who started gefitinib treatment at affiliated institutions of the West Japan Thoracic Oncology Group between August 31 and December 31, 2002. Medical records of patients who developed pulmonary infiltrates were reviewed by a central committee of extramural experts for identification of patients with gefitinib-induced ILD. Multivariate logistic or Cox regression analysis was performed to identify independent predictive factors for ILD, antitumor response, and survival. Results Seventy cases of and 31 deaths from gefitinib-induced ILD were identified among 1,976 consecutively treated patients at 84 institutions, corresponding to a prevalence of 3.5% and mortality of 1.6%. Gefitinib-induced ILD was significantly associated with male sex, a history of smoking, and coincidence of interstitial pneumonia (odds ratios = 3.10, 4.79, and 2.89, respectively). Predictive factors for response were female sex, no history of smoking, adenocarcinoma histology, metastatic disease, and good performance status (PS), whereas predictive factors for survival were female sex, no history of smoking, adenocarcinoma histology, nonmetastatic disease, good PS, and previous chest surgery. Conclusion ILD is a serious adverse effect of gefitinib in the clinical setting that cannot be ignored. However, patient selection based on sex and smoking history can minimize ILD risk and maximize the clinical benefit of gefitinib.

scholarly journals Predictors of Developing Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Treated HCV-Carriers in Morocco according to University Hospital Experience

2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 ◽  
pp. 1-3 ◽  
Author(s):  
Younès Cherradi ◽  
Rajaa Afifi ◽  
Hanaa Benbrahim ◽  
Wafaa Essamri ◽  
Imane Benelbarhdadi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Hepatocellular Carcinoma ◽  
Predictive Factors ◽  
Antiviral Treatment ◽  
Significant Risk ◽  
University Hospital ◽  
Advanced Age ◽  
Previously Treated Patients ◽  
Previously Treated ◽  
Severe Fibrosis

Introduction. Hepatitis C is the first major cause for HCC in Morocco. Antiviral treatment reduces the risk of developing HCC but few cases of HCC in HCV-treated patients were reported. We aimed to define this population’s features and to identify predictive factors of developing HCC. Patients and Methods. We included all HCV carriers who developed HCC after antiviral treatment from January 2002 to April 2010. We compare HCV-treated patients with no developed HCC to HCC population using khi-2 and Fisher Exact analysis. Results. 369 HVC-treated patients were considered, and 20 HCC were reported. The risk of HCC was not significant according to gender and genotypes (resp., P=0.63 and P=0.87). Advanced age and severe fibrosis were significant risk factors (resp., P=0.003 and P=0.0001). HCC was reported in 2.6% of sustained virological responders versus 12.5% of nonresponders (P=0.004). Conclusion. In our series, 5% of previously treated patients developed an HCC. Advanced age and severe fibrosis at HCV diagnosis are predictive factors of HCC occurrence. Sustained virological response reduces considerably the risk of HCC occurrence but screening is indicated even after SVR.

The juvenile sex offender

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Catrien Bijleveld ◽  
Chantal van den Berg ◽  
Jan Hendriks
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Sex Offenders ◽  
Sex Offender ◽  
Sexual Offending ◽  
Juvenile Sex Offenders ◽  
Criminal Career ◽  
Assessment Instruments ◽  
Juvenile Sex Offender ◽  
Factors Associated ◽  
Crucial Information

Juvenile sexual offending is often regarded as a precursor of serious and continued sexual offending in adulthood, but there has been little empirical evidence supporting this assumption. Could juvenile sexual offending be just a ‘passing phase’? The study discussed in this essay follows the criminal career about 1,600 juvenile sex offenders from early adolescence into adulthood. A comprehensive view of the entire criminal career is presented to establish whether juvenile sexual offending is a precursor of continued (sexual) offending in adulthood or if (sexual) offending is non-chronic for most. The sexual recidivists in the sample are identified, and this group is used to establish the risk factors associated with continued sexual offending. These risk factors are compared to the ones used in risk assessment instruments for (juvenile) sex offenders. This study holds crucial information for policy and theory regarding juvenile sex offenders.

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