An unsupervised learning approach by novel damage indices in structural health monitoring for damage localization and quantification

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 325-345 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alireza Entezami ◽  
Hashem Shariatmadar

The aim of this article is to propose novel damage indices for damage localization and quantification based on time series modeling. In order to extract damage-sensitive features from time series models, it is essential to choose adequate and robust orders in such a way that the models are able to extract uncorrelated residuals. On this basis, a new iterative order determination method is proposed to select robust orders of time series models under residual analysis by Ljung–Box Q-test. The damage-sensitive features are the parameters and residuals of an AutoRegressive (AR) model obtained from current feature extraction approaches. In this study, the AR model is identified as the most compatible time series model with measured vibration time-domain responses using Box–Jenkins methodology and Leybourne–McCabe hypothesis test. The proposed damage indices are the parametric assurance criterion and the residual reliability criterion that exploit the parameters and residuals of AR models, respectively. The main idea behind locating a damage is to define threshold limits for both damage indices using the features of undamaged conditions based on an unsupervised learning way. The major contributions of this article are to propose an iterative order determination method for time series models and two novel damage indices for locating and quantifying damage. The accuracy and performance of the proposed methods are experimentally demonstrated on a three-story laboratory frame and a model-scale steel structure. Results show that the proposed iterative approach leads to uncorrelated residuals, and the proposed parametric assurance criterion and the residual reliability criterion methods are promising and efficient tools in damage detection problems under varying operational and environmental conditions.

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 633-654 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammad Mehdi Moghimi ◽  
Abdol Rassoul Zarei ◽  
Mohammad Reza Mahmoudi

Abstract Confronting drought and reducing its impacts requires modeling and forecasting of this phenomenon. In this research, the ability of different time series models (the ARIMA models with different structures) were evaluated to model and predict seasonal drought based on the RDI drought index in the south of Iran. For this purpose, the climatic data of 16 synoptic stations from 1980 to 2010 were used. Evaluation of time series models was based on trial and error. Results showed drought classes varied between ‘very wet’ to ‘severely dry’. The more occurrence frequency of ‘severely dry’ class compared to other drought classes represent the necessity of drought assessment and the importance of managing the effects of this phenomenon in the study area. Results showed that the highest severity of drought occurred at Abadeh, Shiraz, Fasa, Sirjan, Kerman, Shahre Babak and Saravan stations. According to selecting the best model fitted to the computed three-month RDI time series, results indicated that the MA model based on the Innovations method resulted in maximum cases with the best performance (37.5% of cases). The AR model based on the Yule–Walker method resulted in minimum cases with the best performance (6.3% of cases) in seasonal drought forecasting.


2017 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 457
Author(s):  
Mirjana Laković ◽  
Ivan Pavlović ◽  
Miloš Banjac ◽  
Milica Jović ◽  
Marko Mančić

Electricity is a key energy source in each country and an important condition for economic development. It is necessary to use modern methods and tools to predict energy consumption for different types of systems and weather conditions. In every industrial plant, electricity consumption presents one of the greatest operating costs. Monitoring and forecasting of this parameter provide the opportunity to rationalize the use of electricity and thus significantly reduce the costs. The paper proposes the prediction of energy consumption by a new time-series model. This involves time series models using a set of previously collected data to predict the future load. The most commonly used linear time series models are the AR (Autoregressive Model), MA (Moving Average) and ARMA (Autoregressive Moving Average Model). The AR model is used in this paper. Using the AR (Autoregressive Model) model, the Monte Carlo simulation method is utilized for predicting and analyzing the energy consumption change in the considered tobacco industrial plant. One of the main parts of the AR model is a seasonal pattern that takes into account the climatic conditions for a given geographical area. This part of the model was delineated by the Fourier transform and was used with the aim of avoiding the model complexity. As an example, the numerical results were performed for tobacco production in one industrial plant. A probabilistic range of input values is used to determine the future probabilistic level of energy consumption.


2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 ◽  
pp. 1-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jihan Li ◽  
Xiaoli Li ◽  
Kang Wang

Urbanization, industrialization, and regional economic integration have developed rapidly in China in recent years. Air pollution has attracted more and more attention. However, PM2.5is the main particulate matter in air pollution. Therefore, how to predict PM2.5accurately and effectively has become a concern of experts and scholars. For the problem, atmosphere PM2.5concentration prediction algorithm is proposed based on time series and interactive multiple model in this paper. PM2.5concentration is collected by using the monitor at different air quality levels. The time series models are established by historical PM2.5concentration data, which were given by the autoregressive model (AR). In the paper, three PM2.5time series models are established for three different air quality levels. Then, the three models are converted to state equation, respectively, by autoregressive integrated with Kalman filter (AR-Kalman) approaches. Besides, the proposed interactive multiple model (IMM) algorithm is, respectively, compared with autoregressive (AR) model algorithm and AR-Kalman prediction algorithm. It is turned out the proposed IMM algorithm is more accurate than the other two approaches for PM2.5prediction, and it is effective.


Marketing ZFP ◽  
2010 ◽  
Vol 32 (JRM 1) ◽  
pp. 24-29
Author(s):  
Marnik G. Dekimpe ◽  
Dominique M. Hanssens

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 374
Author(s):  
Pauline Jin Wee Mah ◽  
Nur Nadhirah Nanyan

The main purpose of this study is to compare the performances of univariate and bivariate models on four time series variables of the crude palm oil industry in Peninsular Malaysia. The monthly data for the four variables, which are the crude palm oil production, price, import and export, were obtained from Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) and Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC). In the first part of this study, univariate time series models, namely, the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), fractionally integrated autoregressive moving average (ARFIMA) and autoregressive autoregressive (ARAR) algorithm were used for modelling and forecasting purposes. Subsequently, the dependence between any two of the four variables were checked using the residuals’ sample cross correlation functions before modelling the bivariate time series. In order to model the bivariate time series and make prediction, the transfer function models were used. The forecast accuracy criteria used to evaluate the performances of the models were the mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The results of the univariate time series showed that the best model for predicting the production was ARIMA  while the ARAR algorithm were the best forecast models for predicting both the import and export of crude palm oil. However, ARIMA  appeared to be the best forecast model for price based on the MAE and MAPE values while ARFIMA  emerged the best model based on the RMSE value.  When considering bivariate time series models, the production was dependent on import while the export was dependent on either price or import. The results showed that the bivariate models had better performance compared to the univariate models for production and export of crude palm oil based on the forecast accuracy criteria used.


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