Differences between Frequentist and Bayesian inference in routine surveillance for influenza vaccine effectiveness: a test-negative case-control study

Abstract Background Routine influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) surveillance networks use frequentist methods to estimate VE. With data from more than a decade of VE surveillance from diverse global populations now available, using Bayesian methods to explicitly account for this knowledge may be beneficial. This study explores differences between Bayesian vs. frequentist inference in multiple seasons with varying VE. Methods We used data from the United States Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness (US Flu VE) Network. Ambulatory care patients with acute respiratory illness were enrolled during seasons of varying observed VE based on traditional frequentist methods. We estimated VE against A(H1N1)pdm in 2015/16, dominated by A(H1N1)pdm; against A(H3N2) in 2017/18, dominated by A(H3N2); and compared VE for live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV) vs. inactivated influenza vaccine (IIV) among children aged 2–17 years in 2013/14, also dominated by A(H1N1)pdm. VE was estimated using both frequentist and Bayesian methods using the test-negative design. For the Bayesian estimates, prior VE distributions were based on data from all published test-negative studies of the same influenza type/subtype available prior to the season of interest. Results Across the three seasons, 16,342 subjects were included in the analyses. For 2015/16, frequentist and Bayesian VE estimates were essentially identical (41% each). For 2017/18, frequentist and Bayesian estimates of VE against A(H3N2) viruses were also nearly identical (26% vs. 23%, respectively), even though the presence of apparent antigenic match could potentially have pulled Bayesian estimates upward. Precision of estimates was similar between methods in both seasons. Frequentist and Bayesian estimates diverged for children in 2013/14. Under the frequentist approach, LAIV effectiveness was 62 percentage points lower than IIV, while LAIV was only 27 percentage points lower than IIV under the Bayesian approach. Conclusion Bayesian estimates of influenza VE can differ from frequentist estimates to a clinically meaningful degree when VE diverges substantially from previous seasons.

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Influenza vaccine effectiveness against hospitalization in the United States, 2019-2020

The Journal of Infectious Diseases ◽

10.1093/infdis/jiaa800 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Mark W Tenforde ◽

H Keipp Talbot ◽

Christopher H Trabue ◽

Manjusha Gaglani ◽

Tresa M McNeal ◽

...

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

Influenza Vaccine ◽

Influenza Vaccination ◽

Respiratory Illness ◽

The United States ◽

Vaccine Effectiveness ◽

Influenza Viruses ◽

Current Season ◽

Hospital Resources ◽

Negative Controls

Abstract Background Influenza causes significant morbidity and mortality and stresses hospital resources during periods of increased circulation. We evaluated the effectiveness of the 2019-2020 influenza vaccine against influenza-associated hospitalizations in the United States. Methods We included adults hospitalized with acute respiratory illness at 14 hospitals and tested for influenza viruses by reserve transcription polymerase chain reaction. Vaccine effectiveness (VE) was estimated by comparing the odds of current-season influenza vaccination in test-positive influenza cases versus test-negative controls, adjusting for confounders. VE was stratified by age and major circulating influenza types along with A(H1N1)pdm09 genetic subgroups. Results 3116 participants were included, including 18% (553) influenza-positive cases. Median age was 63 years. Sixty-seven percent (2079) received vaccination. Overall adjusted VE against influenza viruses was 41% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 27-52). VE against A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses was 40% (95% CI: 24-53) and 33% against B viruses (95% CI: 0-56). Of the two major A(H1N1)pdm09 subgroups (representing 90% of sequenced H1N1 viruses), VE against one group (5A+187A,189E) was 59% (95% CI: 34-75) whereas no significant VE was observed against the other group (5A+156K) [-1%, 95% CI: -61-37]. Conclusions In a primarily older population, influenza vaccination was associated with a 41% reduction in risk of hospitalized influenza illness.

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Relative and Absolute Effectiveness of High-Dose and Standard-Dose Influenza Vaccine Against Influenza-Related Hospitalization Among Older Adults—United States, 2015–2017

Clinical Infectious Diseases ◽

10.1093/cid/ciaa160 ◽

2020 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Joshua D Doyle ◽

Lauren Beacham ◽

Emily T Martin ◽

H Keipp Talbot ◽

Arnold Monto ◽

...

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

Older Adults ◽

Influenza Vaccine ◽

Standard Dose ◽

Relative Effectiveness ◽

Respiratory Illness ◽

The United States ◽

Vaccine Effectiveness ◽

High Dose ◽

Confounding Variables

Abstract Background Seasonal influenza causes substantial morbidity and mortality in older adults. High-dose inactivated influenza vaccine (HD-IIV), with increased antigen content compared to standard-dose influenza vaccines (SD-IIV), is licensed for use in people aged ≥65 years. We sought to evaluate the effectiveness of HD-IIV and SD-IIV for prevention of influenza-associated hospitalizations. Methods Hospitalized patients with acute respiratory illness were enrolled in an observational vaccine effectiveness study at 8 hospitals in the United States Hospitalized Adult Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness Network during the 2015–2016 and 2016–2017 influenza seasons. Enrolled patients were tested for influenza, and receipt of influenza vaccine by type was recorded. Effectiveness of SD-IIV and HD-IIV was estimated using a test-negative design (comparing odds of influenza among vaccinated and unvaccinated patients). Relative effectiveness of SD-IIV and HD-IIV was estimated using logistic regression. Results Among 1487 enrolled patients aged ≥65 years, 1107 (74%) were vaccinated; 622 (56%) received HD-IIV, and 485 (44%) received SD-IIV. Overall, 277 (19%) tested positive for influenza, including 98 (16%) who received HD-IIV, 87 (18%) who received SD-IIV, and 92 (24%) who were unvaccinated. After adjusting for confounding variables, effectiveness of SD-IIV was 6% (95% confidence interval [CI] −42%, 38%) and that of HD-IIV was 32% (95% CI −3%, 54%), for a relative effectiveness of HD-IIV versus SD-IIV of 27% (95% CI −1%, 48%). Conclusions During 2 US influenza seasons, vaccine effectiveness was low to moderate for prevention of influenza hospitalization among adults aged ≥65 years. High-dose vaccine offered greater effectiveness. None of these findings were statistically significant.

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899. Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness Against Laboratory-Confirmed Influenza in Children Hospitalized with Respiratory Illness in the United States, 2016–2017 and 2017–2018 Seasons

Open Forum Infectious Diseases ◽

10.1093/ofid/ofz359.058 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 6 (Supplement_2) ◽

pp. S26-S27

Author(s):

Angela P Campbell ◽

Constance E Ogokeh ◽

Craig McGowan ◽

Brian Rha ◽

Rangaraj Selvarangan ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Influenza Vaccine ◽

Influenza A ◽

Respiratory Illness ◽

The United States ◽

Vaccine Effectiveness ◽

Severe Illness ◽

Surveillance Network ◽

Pediatric Hospitals ◽

Significant Difference ◽

National Estimates

Abstract Background Annual national estimates of influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) typically measure protection against outpatient medically attended influenza illness. We assessed influenza VE in preventing laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalization in children across two influenza A(H3N2)-predominant seasons. Methods Children < 18 years hospitalized with acute respiratory illness were enrolled at 7 pediatric hospitals in the New Vaccine Surveillance Network. We included subjects ≥6 months with ≤10 days of symptoms enrolled during the 2016–2017 and 2017–2018 seasons (date of first through last influenza-positive case for each site). Combined mid-turbinate and throat swabs were tested using molecular assays. We estimated age-stratified VE from a test-negative design using logistic regression to compare the odds of vaccination among cases positive for influenza with controls testing negative, adjusting for age, enrollment month, site, underlying comorbidities, and race/ethnicity. Full/partial vaccination was defined using ACIP criteria. We verified vaccine receipt from state immunization registries and/or provider records. Results Among 3441 children with complete preliminary data, in 2016–2017, 156/1,710 (9%) tested positive for influenza: 91 (58%) with influenza A(H3N2), 5 (3%) with A(H1N1), and 60 (38%) with B viruses. In 2017–2018, 193/1,731 (11%) tested positive: 87 (45%) with influenza A(H3N2), 47 (24%) with A(H1N1), and 58 (30%) with B. VE for all vaccinated children (full and partial) against any influenza was 48% (95% confidence interval, 26%–63%) in 2016–2017 and 45% (24%–60%) in 2017–2018. Combining seasons, VE for fully and partially vaccinated children against any influenza type was 46% (32%–58%); by virus, VE was 30% (4%–49%) for influenza A(H3N2), 71% (46%–85%) for A(H1N1), and 57% (36%–70%) for B viruses. There was no statistically significant difference in VE by age or full/partial vaccination status for any virus (table). Conclusion Vaccination in the 2016–2017 and 2017–2018 seasons nearly halved the risk of children being hospitalized with influenza. These findings support the use of vaccination to prevent severe illness in children. Our study highlights the need for a better understanding of the lower VE against influenza A(H3N2) viruses. Disclosures All Authors: No reported Disclosures.

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Successes and failures of the live-attenuated influenza vaccine, can we do better?

10.1101/424275 ◽

2018 ◽

Author(s):

Laura Matrajt ◽

M. Elizabeth Halloran ◽

Rustom Antia

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

Influenza Vaccine ◽

Mathematical Models ◽

Viral Infections ◽

Influenza Season ◽

The United States ◽

Vaccine Effectiveness ◽

Effective Protection ◽

Live Attenuated Vaccines ◽

Live Attenuated Influenza Vaccine

Live-attenuated vaccines are usually highly effective against many acute viral infections. However, the effective- ness of the live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV) can vary widely, ranging from 0% effectiveness in some studies done in the United States to 50% in studies done in Europe. The reasons for these discrepancies remain largely unclear. In this paper we use mathematical models to explore how the efficacy of LAIV is affected by the degree of mismatch with the currently circulating influenza strain and interference with pre-existing immunity. The model incorporates two key antigenic distances - the distance between pre-existing immunity and the currently circulating strain as well as the LAIV strain. Our models show that a LAIV that is matched with the currently circulating strain is likely to have only modest efficacy. Our results suggest that the efficacy of the vaccine would be increased (optimized) if, rather than being matched to the circulating strain, it is antigenically slightly further from pre-existing immunity compared with the circulating strain. The models also suggest two regimes in which LAIV that is matched to circulating strains may provide effective protection. The first is in children before they have built immunity from circulating strains. The second is in response to novel strains (such as antigenic shifts) which are at substantial antigenic distance from previously circulating strains. Our models provide an explanation for the variation in vaccine effectiveness, both between children and adults as well as between studies of vaccine effectiveness observed during the 2014-15 influenza season in different countries.

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Prevention of Influenza Hospitalization Among Adults in the United States, 2015–2016: Results From the US Hospitalized Adult Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness Network (HAIVEN)

The Journal of Infectious Diseases ◽

10.1093/infdis/jiy723 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 220 (8) ◽

pp. 1265-1275 ◽

Cited By ~ 19

Author(s):

Jill M Ferdinands ◽

Manjusha Gaglani ◽

Emily T Martin ◽

Don Middleton ◽

Arnold S Monto ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Influenza Vaccine ◽

Influenza A ◽

The United States ◽

Vaccine Effectiveness ◽

Severe Illness ◽

Influenza B Virus ◽

Influenza B ◽

Negative Case ◽

Influenza A H1n1 ◽

The Us

Abstract Background Evidence establishing effectiveness of influenza vaccination for prevention of severe illness is limited. The US Hospitalized Adult Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness Network (HAIVEN) is a multiyear test-negative case-control study initiated in 2015–2016 to estimate effectiveness of vaccine in preventing influenza hospitalization among adults. Methods Adults aged ≥18 years admitted to 8 US hospitals with acute respiratory illness and testing positive for influenza by polymerase chain reaction were cases; those testing negative were controls. Vaccine effectiveness was estimated with logistic regression adjusting for age, comorbidities, and other confounding factors and stratified by frailty, 2-year vaccination history, and clinical presentation. Results We analyzed data from 236 cases and 1231 controls; mean age was 58 years. More than 90% of patients had ≥1 comorbidity elevating risk of influenza complications. Fifty percent of cases and 70% of controls were vaccinated. Vaccination was 51% (95% confidence interval [CI], 29%–65%) and 53% (95% CI, 11%–76%) effective in preventing hospitalization due to influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and influenza B virus infection, respectively. Vaccine was protective for all age groups. Conclusions During the 2015–2016 US influenza A(H1N1)pdm09–predominant season, we found that vaccination halved the risk of influenza-association hospitalization among adults, most of whom were at increased risk of serious influenza complications due to comorbidity or age.

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995. Effectiveness of Influenza Vaccine for Prevention of Influenza-Associated Hospitalizations Among High-Risk Adults in the United States, 2015–2016

Open Forum Infectious Diseases ◽

10.1093/ofid/ofy210.832 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 5 (suppl_1) ◽

pp. S296-S296

Author(s):

Elif Alyanak ◽

Manjusha Gaglani ◽

Emily T Martin ◽

Arnold S Monto ◽

Don Middleton ◽

...

Keyword(s):

High Risk ◽

Influenza Vaccine ◽

Chronic Conditions ◽

Medical Condition ◽

Respiratory Illness ◽

Risk Groups ◽

The United States ◽

Vaccine Effectiveness ◽

Increased Risk ◽

Research Grant

Abstract Background Individuals with cardiopulmonary and other chronic conditions are at increased risk for severe complications of influenza. Few studies have examined influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) in high-risk groups. We evaluated VE against influenza-associated hospitalization among adults with specific high-risk conditions. Methods Adults hospitalized with acute respiratory illness (ARI) during the 2015–2016 influenza season were enrolled at eight hospitals participating in the US Hospitalized Adult Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness Network (HAIVEN) study. Respiratory specimens were tested for influenza by reverse transcription PCR. Measures of illness severity, underlying health status, and vaccination were obtained from medical records and enrollment interviews. The presence of high-risk conditions was determined from clinical codes assigned to prior year medical encounters. We estimated VE using a test-negative design as (1 − adjusted odds ratio), comparing odds of PCR-confirmed influenza among vaccinated patients vs. unvaccinated controls. Multivariate logistic regression was adjusted for age, sex, and other factors, stratifying by chronic conditions. Results Of 1,467 adults hospitalized with ARI, 236 (16%) had PCR-confirmed influenza; 180 (78%) were A(H1N1)pdm09. In all, 1,358 (93%) had ≥1 high-risk medical condition, and 1,026 (70%) had ≥3 conditions. Cardiovascular (n = 835), metabolic (including diabetes) (n = 773) and lung conditions (n = 692) were most common (figure). Patients with ≥1 high-risk conditions were more likely to be vaccinated (70%) vs. patients not at high risk (31%, P < 0.001). Among all patients, VE against any influenza-associated hospitalization was 50% (95% CI: 31–63). VE was similarly high among patients with neurologic (VE = 64%, 95% CI: 26–83), metabolic (VE = 55%, 95% CI: 30–71), and cardiovascular (VE = 53%, 95% CI: 27–69) conditions, though lower for patients with immunosuppression and malignancy (VE = 20%, 95% CI: −42–54). Conclusion Vaccination significantly reduced risk of influenza hospitalization among adults with the most prevalent high-risk cardiovascular, metabolic, and lung conditions. Results support the benefit of vaccinating adults with existing specific chronic conditions. Disclosures H. K. Talbot, sanofi pasteur: Investigator, Research grant. Gilead: Investigator, Research grant. MedImmune: Investigator, Research grant. Vaxinnate: Safety Board, none. Seqirus: Safety Board, none.

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Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness in Inpatient and Outpatient Settings in the United States, 2015–2018

Clinical Infectious Diseases ◽

10.1093/cid/ciaa407 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Mark W Tenforde ◽

Jessie Chung ◽

Emily R Smith ◽

H Keipp Talbot ◽

Christopher H Trabue ◽

...

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

High Risk ◽

Influenza Vaccine ◽

Patient Characteristics ◽

Respiratory Illness ◽

The United States ◽

Vaccine Effectiveness ◽

Influenza Activity ◽

Outpatient Settings ◽

Negative Controls

Abstract Background Demonstration of influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) against hospitalized illness in addition to milder outpatient illness may strengthen vaccination messaging. Our objective was to compare patient characteristics and VE between United States (US) inpatient and outpatient VE networks. Methods We tested adults with acute respiratory illness (ARI) for influenza within 1 outpatient-based and 1 hospital-based VE network from 2015 through 2018. We compared age, sex, and high-risk conditions. The test-negative design was used to compare vaccination odds in influenza-positive cases vs influenza-negative controls. We estimated VE using logistic regression adjusting for site, age, sex, race/ethnicity, peak influenza activity, time to testing from, season (overall VE), and underlying conditions. VE differences (ΔVE) were assessed with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) determined through bootstrapping with significance defined as excluding the null. Results The networks enrolled 14 573 (4144 influenza-positive) outpatients and 6769 (1452 influenza-positive) inpatients. Inpatients were older (median, 62 years vs 49 years) and had more high-risk conditions (median, 4 vs 1). Overall VE across seasons was 31% (95% CI, 26%–37%) among outpatients and 36% (95% CI, 27%–44%) among inpatients. Strain-specific VE (95% CI) among outpatients vs inpatients was 37% (25%–47%) vs 53% (37%–64%) against H1N1pdm09; 19% (9%–27%) vs 23% (8%–35%) against H3N2; and 46% (38%–53%) vs 46% (31%–58%) against B viruses. ΔVE was not significant for any comparison across all sites. Conclusions Inpatients and outpatients with ARI represent distinct populations. Despite comparatively poor health among inpatients, influenza vaccination was effective in preventing influenza-associated hospitalizations.

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End-of-season influenza vaccine effectiveness in adults and children, United Kingdom, 2016/17

Eurosurveillance ◽

10.2807/1560-7917.es.2017.22.44.17-00306 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 22 (44) ◽

Cited By ~ 36

Author(s):

Richard Pebody ◽

Fiona Warburton ◽

Joanna Ellis ◽

Nick Andrews ◽

Alison Potts ◽

...

Keyword(s):

United Kingdom ◽

Influenza Vaccine ◽

Influenza A ◽

Care Home ◽

Vaccine Effectiveness ◽

H3n2 Virus ◽

Live Attenuated Influenza Vaccine ◽

Effective Interventions ◽

Negative Case ◽

Adults And Children

Introduction The United Kingdom is in the fourth season of introducing a universal childhood influenza vaccine programme. The 2016/17 season saw early influenza A(H3N2) virus circulation with care home outbreaks and increased excess mortality particularly in those 65 years or older. Virus characterisation data indicated emergence of genetic clusters within the A(H3N2) 3C.2a group which the 2016/17 vaccine strain belonged to. Methods: The test-negative case–control (TNCC) design was used to estimate vaccine effectiveness (VE) against laboratory confirmed influenza in primary care. Results: Adjusted end-of-season vaccine effectiveness (aVE) estimates were 39.8% (95% confidence interval (CI): 23.1 to 52.8) against all influenza and 40.6% (95% CI: 19.0 to 56.3) in 18–64-year-olds, but no significant aVE in ≥ 65-year-olds. aVE was 65.8% (95% CI: 30.3 to 83.2) for 2–17-year-olds receiving quadrivalent live attenuated influenza vaccine. Discussion: The findings continue to provide support for the ongoing roll-out of the paediatric vaccine programme, with a need for ongoing evaluation. The importance of effective interventions to protect the ≥ 65-year-olds remains.

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