scholarly journals Predicted norovirus resurgence in 2021–2022 due to the relaxation of nonpharmaceutical interventions associated with COVID-19 restrictions in England: a mathematical modeling study

BMC Medicine ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kathleen M. O’Reilly ◽  
Frank Sandman ◽  
David Allen ◽  
Christopher I. Jarvis ◽  
Amy Gimma ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Disease Burden ◽  
Disease Incidence ◽  
Healthcare Services ◽  
National Surveillance ◽  
Incidence Data ◽  
Endemic Diseases ◽  
Contact Patterns ◽  
The Government ◽  
Nonpharmaceutical Interventions ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

Abstract Background To reduce the coronavirus disease burden in England, along with many other countries, the government implemented a package of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) that have also impacted other transmissible infectious diseases such as norovirus. It is unclear what future norovirus disease incidence is likely to look like upon lifting these restrictions. Methods Here we use a mathematical model of norovirus fitted to community incidence data in England to project forward expected incidence based on contact surveys that have been collected throughout 2020–2021. Results We report that susceptibility to norovirus infection has likely increased between March 2020 and mid-2021. Depending upon assumptions of future contact patterns incidence of norovirus that is similar to pre-pandemic levels or an increase beyond what has been previously reported is likely to occur once restrictions are lifted. Should adult contact patterns return to 80% of pre-pandemic levels, the incidence of norovirus will be similar to previous years. If contact patterns return to pre-pandemic levels, there is a potential for the expected annual incidence to be up to 2-fold larger than in a typical year. The age-specific incidence is similar across all ages. Conclusions Continued national surveillance for endemic diseases such as norovirus will be essential after NPIs are lifted to allow healthcare services to adequately prepare for a potential increase in cases and hospital pressures beyond what is typically experienced.

scholarly journals Predicted Norovirus Resurgence in 2021-2022 Due to the Relaxation of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions Associated with COVID-19 Restrictions in England: A Mathematical Modelling Study

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kathleen M O'Reilly ◽  
Frank Sandmann ◽  
David Allen ◽  
Christopher I Jarvis ◽  
Amy Gimma ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Disease Burden ◽  
Disease Incidence ◽  
Healthcare Services ◽  
National Surveillance ◽  
Incidence Data ◽  
Endemic Diseases ◽  
Contact Patterns ◽  
The Government ◽  
Nonpharmaceutical Interventions ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

Background: To reduce the coronavirus disease burden in England, along with many other countries, the Government implemented a package of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) that have also impacted other transmissible infectious diseases such as norovirus. It is unclear what future norovirus disease incidence is likely to look like upon lifting these restrictions. Methods: Here we use a mathematical model of norovirus fitted to community incidence data in England to project forward expected incidence based on contact surveys that have been collected throughout 2020-2021. Results: We report that susceptibility to norovirus infection has likely increased between March 2020 to mid-2021. Depending upon assumptions of future contact patterns incidence of norovirus that is similar to pre-pandemic levels or an increase beyond what has been previously reported is likely to occur once restrictions are lifted. Should adult contact patterns return to 80% of pre-pandemic levels the incidence of norovirus will be similar to previous years. If contact patterns return to pre-pandemic levels there is a potential for the expected annual incidence to be up to 2-fold larger than in a typical year. The age-specific incidence is similar across all ages. Conclusions: Continued national surveillance for endemic diseases such as norovirus will be essential after NPIs are lifted to allow healthcare services to adequately prepare for a potential increase in cases and hospital pressures beyond what is typically experienced.

scholarly journals Nonpharmaceutical Interventions Remain Essential to Reducing COVID-19 Burden Even in a Well-Vaccinated Society: A Modeling Study

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tomás M. León ◽  
Jason Vargo ◽  
Erica S. Pan ◽  
Seema Jain ◽  
Priya B. Shete
Keyword(s):  
Disease Burden ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Scenario Modeling ◽  
Nonpharmaceutical Interventions ◽  
Different Parts ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions ◽  
Modeling Study

Vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) reduce transmission of SARS-CoV-2 infection, but their effectiveness depends on coverage and adherence levels. We used scenario modeling to evaluate their effects on cases and deaths averted and herd immunity. NPIs and vaccines worked synergistically in different parts of the pandemic to reduce disease burden.

scholarly journals Nonpharmaceutical Interventions Remain Essential to Reducing COVID-19 Burden Even in a Well-Vaccinated Society: A Modeling Study

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tomás M León ◽  
Jason Vargo ◽  
Erica S Pan ◽  
Seema Jain ◽  
Priya B Shete
Keyword(s):  
Disease Burden ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Scenario Modeling ◽  
Nonpharmaceutical Interventions ◽  
Different Parts ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions ◽  
Modeling Study

Abstract Vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) reduce transmission of SARS-CoV-2 infection, but their effectiveness depends on coverage and adherence levels. We used scenario modeling to evaluate their effects on cases and deaths averted and herd immunity. NPIs and vaccines worked synergistically in different parts of the pandemic to reduce disease burden.

scholarly journals Analysis of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions Impacts on COVID-19 Pandemic in Iran

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sara Saadatmand ◽  
Khodakaram Salimifard ◽  
Reza Mohammadi
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Generic Model ◽  
Government Interventions ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Huge Impact ◽  
Iranian Government ◽  
The Government ◽  
Nonpharmaceutical Interventions ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic has had a huge impact on people's health, and countries' infrastructures around the globe. Iran was one of the first countries that experienced the vast prevalence of the coronavirus outbreak. Iranian government applied various nonpharmaceutical interventions to eradicate the epidemic in different periods. To evaluate the effectiveness of applied policies, the number of cases and death before and after the interventions studied and the effective reproduction number of the infection was analyzed under various scenarios. The SEIR generic model was applied to capture the dynamic of the pandemic in Iran. It is assumed that changes in reproduction number are responses to interventions. Depending on how responsive people to the government interventions, the effectiveness of each intervention has been investigated. Based on the model results, the peak of the total number of infected individuals will occur around the end of May and the start of June 2021. It is revealed that the outbreak had been able to be smoothed if the government had continued the full lockdown and strict quarantine. The result will allow for the assessment of the effects of different government interventions in new outbreaks.

Corrupt Practices in the Public Health Sector: A Focus on Metropolitan Local Government Areas of Kano State, Nigeria

2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 149
Author(s):  
Mohammed Mustapha Namadi
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Local Government ◽  
Health Sector ◽  
Sampling Technique ◽  
Healthcare Services ◽  
Healthcare Sector ◽  
Healthcare Provision ◽  
The Public ◽  
Public Health Sector ◽  
The Government

Corruption is pervasive in Nigeria at all levels. Thus, despite recent gains in healthcare provision, the health sector faces numerous corruption related challenges. This study aims at examining areas of corruption in the health sector with specific focus on its types and nature. A sample size of 480 respondents aged 18 years and above was drawn from the eight Metropolitan Local Government Areas of Kano State, using the multistage sampling technique. The results revealed evidence of corrupt practices including those related to unnecessary-absenteeism, diversion of patients from the public health facilities to the private sector, diverting money meant for the purchase of equipment, fuel and diesel, bribery, stealing of medications, fraud, misappropriation of medications and unjustifiable reimbursement claims. In order to resolve the problem of corrupt practices in the healthcare sector, the study recommended the need for enforcement of appropriate code of ethics guiding the conduct of the health professionals, adoption of anti-corruption strategies, and strengthening the government monitoring system to check corruption in public health sector in order to ensure equitable access to healthcare services among the under-privileged people in the society.

Quantifying the Shift in Social Contact Patterns in Response to Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zachary McCarthy ◽  
Yanyu Xiao ◽  
Francesca Scarabel ◽  
Biao Tang ◽  
Nicola Luigi Bragazzi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Social Contact ◽  
Contact Patterns ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

Funding models and expenditures with primary healthcare in Salvador, Bahia, Brazil metropolitan area

2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (Supplement_5) ◽  
Author(s):  
T Vivas ◽  
M Duarte ◽  
A Pitta ◽  
B Christovam
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Metropolitan Area ◽  
Primary Healthcare ◽  
Healthcare Services ◽  
Ministry Of Health ◽  
Healthcare Budget ◽  
Health Budget ◽  
The Public ◽  
Before And After ◽  
The Government

Abstract Background The government investments in quality primary healthcare are the basis to strengthening the health systems and monitoring the public expenditure in this area is a way to assess the effectiveness and efficiency of the public health policies. The Brazil Ministry of Health changed, in 2017, the method of onlending federal resources to states and cities seeking to make the public funds management more flexible. This change, however, suppressed mandatory investments in primary healthcare. This research aims to determine the difference of expenditures on primary healthcare in Salvador, Bahia, Brazil metropolitan area before and after this funding reform, seeking to verify how it can impact the quality of primary healthcare services and programs. Methods This is an ecological time-series study that used data obtained in the Brazil Ministry of Health budget reports. The median and interquartile range of expenditures on primary healthcare (set as the percentage of total public health budget applied in primary care services and programs) of the 13 cities in the Salvador metropolitan area were compared two years before and after the reform. Results The median of expenditures on primary healthcare in Salvador metropolitan area was 25.5% (13,9% - 32,2%) of total public health budget before and 24.8% (20.8% - 30.0%) of total public health budget after the reform (-0.7% difference). Seven cities decreased the expenditures on primary healthcare after the reform, ranging from 1.2% to 10.8% reduction in the primary healthcare budget in five years. Conclusions Expenditures on primary healthcare in Salvador metropolitan area decreased after the 2017 funding reform. Seven of 13 cities reduced the government investments on primary healthcare services and programs in this scenario. Although the overall difference was -0.7%, the budget cuts ranged from 1.2% to 10.8% in the analyzed period and sample. More studies should assess these events in wide areas and with long time ranges. Key messages Public health funding models can impact the primary healthcare settings regardless of the health policy. Reforms in the funding models should consider the possible benefits before implementation. Funding models and methods that require mandatory investments in primary healthcare may be considered over more flexible ones.

scholarly journals A retrospective database analysis of burden of IPD and pneumonia in children <15y in Veneto region

2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (Supplement_5) ◽  
Author(s):  
E Barbieri ◽  
A Cantarutti ◽  
G Porcu ◽  
T Hu ◽  
T Petigara ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Primary Care ◽  
Average Cost ◽  
Disease Burden ◽  
Disease Incidence ◽  
Population Data ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Invasive Disease ◽  
Healthcare Resource Utilization ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Regional Population

Abstract Background IPD and pneumonia are associated with high mortality and healthcare resource utilization (HCRU). This analysis assessed incidence, HCRU and costs of IPD and pneumonia following PCV13 introduction in 2010 in Veneto. Methods IPD, unspecified invasive disease episodes, outpatient pneumococcal and unspecified pneumonia episodes were identified in Pedianet, a pediatric primary care database from 2010-2017. HCRU includes primary care and specialist visits, antibiotic prescriptions, diagnostics, ER visits and hospitalizations. Incidence rates (IRs) were numbers of episodes/1,000 person-years. Standardized regional incidence rates (SRIRs) were calculated by standardizing IRs with regional population data by age and year. Regional expenditures (€/1,000 person-years) were calculated by multiplying SRIRs with average costs per episode. Interrupted time series (ITS) analyses assessed trends in annual IRs in the early and late PCV13 (2010-2013, 2014-2017) periods. Results During 2010-2017, IPD and unspecified invasive disease incidence decreased from 0.40 to 0.31/1,000 person-years. While incidence was numerically lower in 2017 than in 2010, ITS analysis did not detect a significant trend in the early (coef=1.97; p = 0.63) or late PCV13 (coef=0.50; p = 0.90) periods. Average cost per episode was €4206 and average regional expenditure was €171/1,000 person-year. SRIR for outpatient pneumonia decreased from 13.35 to 5.48/1,000 person-year during 2010 to 2017. Pneumonia episodes were associated with 0.29 ER visits and 0.15 short stay and 0.06 long stay hospitalization. Average cost per episode was €345, majority of which was associated with ER visits (€50.8) and hospitalizations (€243.9). Regional expenditures decreased from €12852.31 to €5351.98/1,000 person-year. Conclusions IPD and unspecified invasive disease burden did not change significantly following PCV13 introduction, while disease burden declined for outpatient pneumococcal and unspecified pneumonia. Key messages IPD and unspecified invasive disease burden did not change significantly following PCV13 introduction. Disease burden declined for outpatient pneumococcal and unspecified pneumonia following PCV13.

scholarly journals Telemedicine: A Paradigm Shift in Healthcare in the wake of COVID-19 in India

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ria Saha ◽  
Vinoth Gnana Chellaiyan
Keyword(s):  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Healthcare Services ◽  
National Guidelines ◽  
Medical Practitioners ◽  
Regulatory Guidelines ◽  
Risk Of Disease ◽  
Wide Scale ◽  
The Government ◽  
Institutional Challenges

The COVID-19 pandemic has severely affected the delivery of essential healthcare services in India. The massive disruption of the routine healthcare services had been circumvented to a certain extent with the application of telemedicine. In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Government of India has issued regulatory guidelines and approved Registered Medical Practitioners (RMP) to adopt the usage of teleconsultation service which can be real-time or asynchronous to minimise the risk of disease transmission. The commentary provides an in-depth review of the regulatory guidelines implemented by the Government of India and discusses the inherent structural and fundamental challenges associated with its wide scale adoption, accessibility, and utilisation. Though the Government of India had issued national guidelines to promote safe and effective usage of telemedicine practice, there remains certain primary structural, technical and institutional challenges regarding expansion of uninterrupted services to periurban and rural peripheral health facilities and its nationwide sustainability. The article demands the attention of the policymakers and relevant stakeholders to identify the inherent bottlenecks intrinsic to the guidelines and amend the regulatory framework accordingly to ensure its long-term sustainability.

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