Experiences and learnings from induced seismicity regulation in Alberta

2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. SE15-SE21 ◽  
Author(s):  
Todd Shipman ◽  
Ron MacDonald ◽  
Tom Byrnes
Keyword(s):  
Hydraulic Fracturing ◽  
Induced Seismicity ◽  
Red Light ◽  
Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Traffic Light ◽  
Regulatory Requirements ◽  
Current State ◽  
New Information ◽  
Response Plan ◽  
The Town

We have examined the experiences and learnings acquired through the implementation of the Alberta Energy Regulator’s (AER) subsurface order no. 2 (sub or no. 2) traffic light protocol (TLP). On 22 January 2015, a 4.4 [Formula: see text] seismic event occurred near a hydraulic fracturing operation in west-central Alberta and was felt by residents of the town of Fox Creek. On 19 February 2015, the AER issued sub or no. 2 to help manage induced seismicity, as related to hydraulic fracturing of the Duvernay zone in a prescribed area around Fox Creek. Sub or no. 2 requires operators affected by the order to conduct a seismic hazard assessment; prepare a monitoring, mitigation, and response plan; conduct seismic monitoring; and adhere to a TLP. Since sub or no. 2 was issued, two “red light” events (i.e., [Formula: see text]) have occurred in the area. Review and analysis of data and information collected under sub or no. 2 facilitate an improved understanding of the key geologic and operational controls on induced seismicity and allow for an assessment of the efficacy of industry practices and regulatory requirements. We still support the use of local magnitude [Formula: see text] for our TLP based on the purpose and outcomes provided by sub or no. 2. Conversations with operators have suggested that [Formula: see text] orientation should inform the wells’ trajectory with respect to critically stressed faults. The requirement of a response plan was part of the learning process developed under sub or no. 2. Through this exercise, the AER has developed a better understanding of the goals of the response plans, which were better defined through conversations with operators. Sub or no. 2 is consistent with the current state of the evolving science of induced seismicity and has the capacity to change as new information is obtained.

A risk-based approach for managing hydraulic fracturing–induced seismicity

Science ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 372 (6541) ◽  
pp. 504-507
Author(s):  
Ryan Schultz ◽  
Gregory C. Beroza ◽  
William L. Ellsworth
Keyword(s):  
Hydraulic Fracturing ◽  
Induced Seismicity ◽  
Red Light ◽  
Maximum Magnitude ◽  
Traffic Light ◽  
Induced Earthquakes ◽  
Eagle Ford Shale ◽  
Eagle Ford ◽  
Sensitivity Tests ◽  
Spatially Varying

Risks from induced earthquakes are a growing concern that needs effective management. For hydraulic fracturing of the Eagle Ford shale in southern Texas, we developed a risk-informed strategy for choosing red-light thresholds that require immediate well shut-in. We used a combination of datasets to simulate spatially heterogeneous nuisance and damage impacts. Simulated impacts are greater in the northeast of the play and smaller in the southwest. This heterogeneity is driven by concentrations of population density. Spatially varying red-light thresholds normalized on these impacts [moment magnitude (Mw) 2.0 to 5.0] are fairer and safer than a single threshold applied over a broad area. Sensitivity tests indicate that the forecast maximum magnitude is the most influential parameter. Our method provides a guideline for traffic light protocols and managing induced seismicity risks.

scholarly journals Real‐Time Imaging, Forecasting, and Management of Human‐Induced Seismicity at Preston New Road, Lancashire, England

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huw Clarke ◽  
James P. Verdon ◽  
Tom Kettlety ◽  
Alan F. Baird ◽  
J‐Michael Kendall
Keyword(s):  
Hydraulic Fracturing ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Shale Gas ◽  
Statistical Models ◽  
Induced Seismicity ◽  
Red Light ◽  
Fracture Network ◽  
Fluid Injection ◽  
Traffic Light ◽  
Subsurface Fluid

ABSTRACTEarthquakes induced by subsurface fluid injection pose a significant issue across a range of industries. Debate continues as to the most effective methods to mitigate the resulting seismic hazard. Observations of induced seismicity indicate that the rate of seismicity scales with the injection volume and that events follow the Gutenberg–Richter distribution. These two inferences permit us to populate statistical models of the seismicity and extrapolate them to make forecasts of the expected event magnitudes as injection continues. Here, we describe a shale gas site where this approach was used in real time to make operational decisions during hydraulic fracturing operations.Microseismic observations revealed the intersection between hydraulic fracturing and a pre‐existing fault or fracture network that became seismically active. Although “red light” events, requiring a pause to the injection program, occurred on several occasions, the observed event magnitudes fell within expected levels based on the extrapolated statistical models, and the levels of seismicity remained within acceptable limits as defined by the regulator. To date, induced seismicity has typically been regulated using retroactive traffic light schemes. This study shows that the use of high‐quality microseismic observations to populate statistical models that forecast expected event magnitudes can provide a more effective approach.

scholarly journals Green, yellow, red, or out of the blue? An assessment of Traffic Light Schemes to mitigate the impact of hydraulic fracturing-induced seismicity

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
James P. Verdon ◽  
Julian J. Bommer
Keyword(s):  
Hydraulic Fracturing ◽  
Induced Seismicity ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Red Light ◽  
Fundamental Parameter ◽  
Traffic Light ◽  
The Usa ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Magnitude Increase

Abstract Mitigating hydraulic fracturing-induced seismicity (HF-IS) poses a challenge for shale gas companies and regulators alike. The use of Traffic Light Schemes (TLSs) is the most common way by which the hazards associated with HF-IS are mitigated. In this study, we discuss the implicit risk mitigation objectives of TLSs and explain the advantages of magnitude as the fundamental parameter to characterise induced seismic hazard. We go on to investigate some of the key assumptions on which TLSs are based, namely that magnitudes evolve relatively gradually from green to yellow to red thresholds (as opposed to larger events occurring “out-of-the-blue”), and that trailing event magnitudes do not increase substantially after injection stops. We compile HF-IS datasets from around the world, including the USA, Canada, the UK, and China, and track the temporal evolution of magnitudes in order to evaluate the extent to which magnitude jumps (i.e. sharp increases in magnitude from preceding events within a sequence) and trailing events occur. We find in the majority of cases magnitude jumps are less than 2 units. One quarter of cases experienced a post-injection magnitude increase, with the largest being 1.6. Trailing event increases generally occurred soon after injection, with most cases showing no increase in magnitude more than a few days after then end of injection. Hence, the effective operation of TLSs may require red-light thresholds to be set as much as two magnitude units below the threshold that the scheme is intended to avoid.

Induced Seismicity at the Preston New Road Shale Gas Site in Lancashire, UK – Site Characterisation and impact on the TLS

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antoine Delvoye ◽  
Ben Edwards
Keyword(s):  
Hydraulic Fracturing ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Induced Seismicity ◽  
Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Velocity Model ◽  
Ambient Vibration ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Traffic Light ◽  
British Geological Survey ◽  
Clay Deposits

<div>Recent examples have shown that fluid injection during hydraulic fracturing can result in felt, or even damaging, seismic activity. In the vicinity of the Preston New Road site (Lancashire, UK), almost 200 earthquakes of ML -0.8 to 2.9 have been recorded by the British Geological Survey (BGS) over the period from October 15th 2018 to September 2019. This corresponds to the period during which hydraulic fracturing (fracking) was carried out by the operator, Cuadrilla Resources. Throughout the operation, fracking had to be suspended temporarily five times as the ML 0.5 ‘red light’ of the UK regulatory Traffic Light System (TLS) was exceeded. Since 2017, the University of Liverpool has operated a seismic monitoring network comprising nine broadband Nanometrics Trillium 120 across the Blackpool-Preston region in order to determine the baseline seismicity and monitor induced events associated with the fracking operations atthe site. In addition to this network, both Cuadrilla and the BGS deployedseismometers-including borehole geophone strings-over the region making it oneof the best places in Europe for monitoring induced seismicity. The superficial geology of the region is dominated by thick sand, till and clay deposits, poten-tially leading to significant amplification of seismic waves. This amplification may lead to over-estimation of earthquake magnitude, and therefore increased likelihood of triggering mitigation measures associated with the TLS. In order to understand amplification effects near the PNR site, surface-wave measurements (both MASW and seismic Ambient Vibration Arrays, AVAs) have been used to derive dispersion curves and obtain VS profiles through an inversion process for station-site characterization. By using small local arrays (hundreds of meters wide) to regional arrays (tens of km wide), we reconstruct a velocity model down to the bedrock depth. This velocity model can then be used to compute a parshly non-ergodic ground motion and subsequently seismic hazard assessment. This approach allow us to account for site to site variability and result in reduced uncertainty in the hazard assessment. We find Vs30 in the range 200 – 300 m/s at the sites investigated, leading to significant amplification effects that may bias event magnitudes determined on a surface array.</div>

scholarly journals Accounting for Natural Uncertainty Within Monitoring Systems for Induced Seismicity Based on Earthquake Magnitudes

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Corinna Roy ◽  
Andy Nowacki ◽  
Xin Zhang ◽  
Andrew Curtis ◽  
Brian Baptie
Keyword(s):  
Induced Seismicity ◽  
Red Light ◽  
Traffic Light ◽  
Local Earthquake ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Managing Risk ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Large Earthquakes ◽  
Local Earthquake Magnitude ◽  
Station Site

To reduce the probability of future large earthquakes, traffic light systems (TLSs) define appropriate reactions to observed induced seismicity depending on each event's range of local earthquake magnitude (ML). The impact of velocity uncertainties and station site effects may be greater than a whole magnitude unit of ML, which can make the difference between a decision to continue (“green” TLS zone) and an immediate stop of operations (“red” zone). We show how to include these uncertainties in thresholds such that events only exceed a threshold with a fixed probability. This probability can be set by regulators to reflect their tolerance to risk. We demonstrate that with the new TLS, a red-light threshold would have been encountered earlier in the hydraulic fracturing operation at Preston New Road, UK, halting operations and potentially avoiding the later large magnitude events. It is therefore critical to establish systems which permit regulators to account for uncertainties when managing risk.

Ground-Motion Analysis of Hydraulic-Fracturing Induced Seismicity at Close Epicentral Distance

2019 ◽  
Vol 110 (1) ◽  
pp. 331-344
Author(s):  
Germán Rodríguez-Pradilla ◽  
David W. Eaton
Keyword(s):  
Hydraulic Fracturing ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Induced Seismicity ◽  
Epicentral Distance ◽  
Ground Motions ◽  
Strong Motion ◽  
Seismic Velocities ◽  
Traffic Light ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Near Surface

ABSTRACT The application of seismic hazard analysis methods developed for natural earthquakes can provide an effective framework for managing risks of induced seismicity (IS) sequences, particularly for assessment of potential risk to nearby infrastructure. Among various factors, the reliability of these methods depends on the accuracy of the ground-motion prediction equation (GMPE)—especially at close epicentral distances where ground motions are expected to be highest. In addition, potential impacts on local infrastructure can be assessed based on ground-motion-derived intensity values, which provide a basis for some traffic-light protocols that are used for managing fluid IS. GMPEs in many areas of the world, however, are poorly calibrated at close epicentral distances, because the availability of near-source seismograph stations is generally very sparse. This study investigates ground motions generated by an IS sequence, up to local magnitude (ML) 3.77 that occurred during a hydraulic-fracturing stimulation in the Duvernay shale play in central Alberta, western Canada. The sequence was monitored using a near-surface array that was located directly above the hydraulically fractured horizontal wells, providing accurate ground-motion measurements at hypocentral distances <10  km. The local array consisted of a combination of geophones cemented in shallow wellbores to depth of ∼27  m, shallow buried broadband seismometers, and a strong-motion accelerometer. This configuration enabled direct measurement of near-surface seismic velocities in the top 27 m, which provided robust VS30 data used to correct observed ground motions for local site-amplification effects. Our data set extends previous analyses in this region by providing new measurements very close to the epicenters of moderate earthquakes and shows that a recently developed GMPE provides accurate near-source ground-motion estimates.

Risk-Informed Recommendations for Managing Hydraulic Fracturing–Induced Seismicity via Traffic Light Protocols

2020 ◽  
Vol 110 (5) ◽  
pp. 2411-2422 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ryan Schultz ◽  
Greg Beroza ◽  
William Ellsworth ◽  
Jack Baker
Keyword(s):  
Hydraulic Fracturing ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Red Light ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Site Amplification ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Traffic Light ◽  
Induced Earthquakes ◽  
Risk Curves ◽  
Do So

ABSTRACT Risks from induced earthquakes caused by hydraulic fracturing are a growing concern with a need for effective management. Here, we develop a risk-informed strategy for choosing red and yellow traffic light thresholds based on the current understanding of induced earthquakes. To do so, we utilize probabilistic maximum magnitudes, magnitude to ground-motion relationships, population densities, statistical distributions of site amplification, and felt or damaging ground-motion thresholds to compute the risk of damage or nuisance. Risk curves for various forecast scenarios highlight two proposed guidelines. First, setting red-light thresholds within the nuisance range of ground motions reduces the chances that runaway earthquakes could cause unacceptable damage. Second, setting yellow-light thresholds approximately two magnitude units less than the red light ensures that operators have a sufficient opportunity to enact mitigation strategies. We compare the differences in risk between several real-life traffic light cases to illustrate how this approach could allow regulators to design traffic light protocols in a risk-informed manner and thus balance the consequences of their decisions more effectively. Our approach also promotes the transparent communication of risk to all involved stakeholders.

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