Predicting Success in Phase III Studies From Phase II Results: A New Paradigm Is Needed

2008 ◽  
Vol 26 (21) ◽  
pp. 3653-3654 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Leff ◽  
Michele Andrews
1999 ◽  
Vol 17 (6) ◽  
pp. 1847-1847 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guillermo L. Chantada ◽  
Adriana Fandiño ◽  
Gabriel Mato ◽  
Sandra Casak

PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to evaluate in an upfront phase II study the response to idarubicin in children with extraocular retinoblastoma. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The starting dose of idarubicin was 15 mg/m2/d (days 1 and 2) weeks 0 and 3. After an interim evaluation, the dose was reduced to 10 mg/m2/d (days 1 and 2) weeks 0 and 3 because of hematopoietic toxicity. Response was evaluated at week 6. RESULTS: At the Hospital JP Garrahan (Buenos Aires, Argentina), 10 patients (five bilateral) were entered onto the study from 1995 to 1998. A total of 19 cycles were administered. Extraocular sites included orbit (n = 10), bone marrow (n = 3), bone (n = 1), lymph node (n = 1), and CNS (n = 1). The response rate was 60% (95% confidence interval, 30% to 90%). One complete response was achieved, in addition to five partial responses, two cases of stable disease, and two cases of progressive disease. All patients with bone marrow involvement achieved complete clearance of tumor cells. The patient with CNS disease had progressive disease. All patients had severe hematopoietic toxicity (grade 4 neutropenia and grade 3/4 thrombocytopenia after most cycles). Other toxicities included grade 2 diarrhea in 30%. No echocardiographic changes were detected. CONCLUSION: Idarubicin is active in extraocular retinoblastoma. The activity of this drug should be explored in future phase III studies.


2006 ◽  
Vol 24 (18_suppl) ◽  
pp. 7108-7108 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. K. Bagai ◽  
A. Dowlati

7108 Background: A significant heterogeneity exists in the design and reporting of phase II and III therapeutic clinical trials in NSCLC. This has led to difficulty in interpretation of these trials leading to over- or underestimation of therapeutic efficacy. We set out to investigate the statistical methodology and design reporting of chemotherapeutic trials in NSCLC published in the Journal of Clinical Oncology (JCO) over 20 years. Methods: We identified all phase II and III NSCLC chemotherapy trials published in the JCO from January 1983 to August 2005. All manuscripts were reviewed to evaluate components of statistical design that were reported, including: sample size calculation, power, type I error, single or multiple drug trials, relative response sought in phase II trials and improvement in survival time or response rate sought in phase III trials. Results: One hundred forty eight trials were identified. 52% of studies were phase III and 48% were phase II. The majority (78%) were conducted in advanced stage NSCLC. Sample size calculations were reported for only 58% of phase III studies and 31% of phase II studies. Power was reported in 66% of phase III studies and 13% of phase II trials. Type I error was reported in 47% of phase III studies and 17% in phase II studies. 60% of phase III trials defined endpoints (percentage improvement in survival time, improvement in survival time in months or increase in response rate). 41% of phase II trails defined the target response rate, ranging from response rates of 15% to 70%. The frequency of adequate reporting of statistical design was shown to increase from 31% in 1990–1995 to 64% in 2000–2005 ( table ). Conclusions: Significant heterogeneity exists in trial design and reporting of phase II and III trials in NSCLC. This impacts the ability to adequately interpret these studies. More widespread application of statistical methods in planning and reporting of lung cancer clinical trials are necessary to increase reliability of data. [Table: see text] No significant financial relationships to disclose.


2010 ◽  
Vol 90 ◽  
pp. 156 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Grinyo ◽  
B. Charpentier ◽  
J. O.M. Pestana ◽  
Y. Vanrenterghem ◽  
F. Vincenti ◽  
...  

1986 ◽  
Vol 4 (7) ◽  
pp. 1053-1057 ◽  
Author(s):  
C G Moertel ◽  
J Rubin ◽  
M J O'Connell ◽  
A J Schutt ◽  
H S Wieand

In a phase II study of 67 patients with upper gastrointestinal carcinomas and measurable disease without previous chemotherapy, we have evaluated the combination of intensive course 5-fluorouracil (5-FU) (300 mg/m2/d for five days) doxorubicin (40 mg/m2 on day 1), and cisplatin (60 mg/m2 on day 1). Courses were repeated every 5 weeks. Among 26 patients with gastric carcinoma, a 50% regression rate was obtained with a median survival for all patients of 9 months. Among 29 patients with pancreatic carcinoma, the regression rate was 21% and the median survival was 4 months. Regressions were also observed in smaller numbers of patients with carcinomas of the gallbladder and ampulla of Vater, as well as in cholangiocellular carcinoma of the liver. Toxic reactions were usually clinically tolerable and consisted primarily of nausea, vomiting, stomatitis, diarrhea, leukopenia, and alopecia. Phase III studies are in progress to place the value of this experimental regimen into clinical perspective.


2020 ◽  
Vol 86 (7) ◽  
pp. 1306-1313
Author(s):  
Rick A. Vreman ◽  
Svetlana V. Belitser ◽  
Ana T.M. Mota ◽  
Anke M. Hövels ◽  
Wim G. Goettsch ◽  
...  

2005 ◽  
Vol 23 (28) ◽  
pp. 6982-6991 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammad I. Zia ◽  
Lillian L. Siu ◽  
Greg R. Pond ◽  
Eric X. Chen

Purpose To determine whether promising results from phase II studies could be reproduced in phase III studies, and to examine which characteristics of phase II studies might be of predictive value for subsequent phase III studies. Methods We searched for all phase III studies of chemotherapy in advanced solid malignancies, published in the English language literature from July 1998 to June 2003. Each phase III study was reviewed to identify preceding phase II studies. Phase II and phase III studies included in this analysis must have used identical regimens. Data were extracted from both phase II and phase III studies. Results Of 181 phase III studies identified, 43 used therapeutic regimens identical to those in 49 preceding phase II studies. Twelve phase III studies (28%) were “positive.” The vast majority (81%) of phase III studies have lower response rates than preceding phase II studies, with a mean difference of 12.9% among all studies analyzed. None of the phase II study characteristics evaluated significantly predicted for “positive” phase III studies, but the sample size of phase II studies demonstrated a trend toward being predictive (P = .083). Conclusion Promising results from phase II studies frequently do not translate into “positive” phase III studies. Response rates in most phase III studies are lower than those in preceding phase II studies.


2008 ◽  
Vol 11 (Suppl 1) ◽  
pp. P157
Author(s):  
G Fätkenheuer ◽  
B Clotet ◽  
G Pialoux ◽  
K Ruxrungtham ◽  
C Cohen ◽  
...  

2009 ◽  
Vol 27 (25) ◽  
pp. 4103-4108 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laurent Claret ◽  
Pascal Girard ◽  
Paulo M. Hoff ◽  
Eric Van Cutsem ◽  
Klaas P. Zuideveld ◽  
...  

PurposeWe developed a drug-disease simulation model to predict antitumor response and overall survival in phase III studies from longitudinal tumor size data in phase II trials.MethodsWe developed a longitudinal exposure-response tumor-growth inhibition (TGI) model of drug effect (and resistance) using phase II data of capecitabine (n = 34) and historical phase III data of fluorouracil (FU; n = 252) in colorectal cancer (CRC); and we developed a parametric survival model that related change in tumor size and patient characteristics to survival time using historical phase III data (n = 245). The models were validated in simulation of antitumor response and survival in an independent phase III study (n = 1,000 replicates) of capecitabine versus FU in CRC.ResultsThe TGI model provided a good fit of longitudinal tumor size data. A lognormal distribution best described the survival time, and baseline tumor size and change in tumor size from baseline at week 7 were predictors (P < .00001). Predicted change of tumor size and survival time distributions in the phase III study for both capecitabine and FU were consistent with observed values, for example, 431 days (90% prediction interval, 362 to 514 days) versus 401 days observed for survival in the capecitabine arm. A modest survival improvement of 39 days (90% prediction interval, −21 to 110 days) versus 35 days observed was predicted for capecitabine.ConclusionThe modeling framework successfully predicted survival in a phase III trial on the basis of capecitabine phase II data in CRC. It is a useful tool to support end-of-phase II decisions and design of phase III studies.


Blood ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 132 (Supplement 1) ◽  
pp. 3739-3739 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul Knöbl ◽  
Marie Scully ◽  
Spero R Cataland ◽  
Flora Peyvandi ◽  
Paul Coppo ◽  
...  

Abstract Introduction : During the clinical development of caplacizumab, safety and tolerability data have been accrued from Phase I, Phase II, and Phase III studies in 3 discrete populations, comprising patients with acquired thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura (aTTP), patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI; indication is not being pursued), and healthy patients. Given that caplacizumab blocks the interaction of the Willebrand factor (vWF) A1 domain with the GPIb-IX-V platelet receptor, the main expected safety risk is bleeding. Methods : The objective of this integrated analysis is to characterize the safety and tolerability of caplacizumab based on summaries of data from the pooled Phase I, Phase II, and Phase III studies, with a main focus on the safety data from the Phase II and Phase III studies in the aTTP Population, (i.e., the TITAN and HERCULES studies). Treatment-emergent adverse events (TEAEs) and clinical laboratory evaluations (hematology, biochemistry, and coagulation markers) were evaluated and summarized. Treatment-emergent bleeding was specified as an event of special interest. Data were analyzed during the double-blind (DB)/single-blind (SB) treatment period, and during the overall study period (including the follow-up period) for the aTTP population. R esults : Safety data for caplacizumab have been accrued in 790 patients within the 3 populations (220 aTTP patients, 410 PCI patients, and 160 healthy patients). In the pooled aTTP population, 216 (98.2%) patients received at least one dose of study drug (i.e., Safety Population), 106 patients in the caplacizumab group and 110 patients in the placebo group. The median duration of exposure to study drug was 35.0 days in the caplacizumab group and 32.5 days in the placebo group. Similar percentages of patients were reported with TEAEs in the caplacizumab (96.2%) and placebo (95.5%) groups. Events that occurred more frequently (≥5% difference) in the caplacizumab group vs. placebo were epistaxis (29.2% vs. 5.5%), headache (20.8% vs 13.6%) and gingival bleeding (16.0% vs 2.7%). The majority of these events were mild in intensity. Events that occurred more frequently in the placebo group were TTP (35.5% vs 5.7%), hypokalaemia (20.0% vs 12.3%), and hypertension (12.7% vs 4.7%). Relative risks were calculated for the most frequent TEAEs (Figure 1). Patients in the caplacizumab group had a significantly higher risk of experiencing gingival bleeding and epistaxis. Patients in the placebo group had a significantly higher risk of TTP recurrence and hypertension. Study drug discontinuation due to TEAEs occurred with similar frequencies in the caplacizumab (6.6%) and placebo (10.0%) groups, and were mostly individual events with the exception of TTP and myocardial infarction. A lower percentage of patients experienced SAEs in the caplacizumab group (29.2%) vs. placebo (49.1%). The most frequently reported SAE was TTP in both the caplacizumab (5.7%) and placebo (34.5%) groups. All other SAEs were reported in less than 5% of the patients. A higher percentage of patients experienced bleeding TEAEs in the caplacizumab group (60.4%) than in the placebo group (42.7%). Bleeding TEAEs were mainly mucocutaneous, most were self-limited and the majority resolved. Results from laboratory tests showed a general normalization of key hematology and chemistry parameters over time. Both treatment groups were similar with respect to clinically notable laboratory values, with very few abnormalities reported as TEAEs. The safety profile of caplacizumab observed in other populations was similar to that observed in the aTTP population, with no new safety signals identified. Bleeding TEAEs were the most commonly reported events in healthy patients and PCI patients. Conclusions : Bleeding TEAEs, chiefly epistaxis and gingival bleeding, were the most common TEAEs in patients treated with caplacizumab. Results from laboratory tests confirmed the safety profile of caplacizumab. No new safety signals were identified in the other populations studied. This integrated analysis has shown that caplacizumab is well tolerated and has a favorable safety profile. Disclosures Knöbl: Ablynx: Consultancy, Other: Member of Advisory Board. Scully:Novartis: Honoraria, Other: Member of Advisory Board, Speakers Bureau. Cataland:Alexion: Research Funding; Shire: Consultancy; Ablynx: Consultancy, Other: Member of Advisory Board. Peyvandi:Shire: Speakers Bureau; Octapharma US: Honoraria; Sobi: Speakers Bureau; Grifols: Speakers Bureau; Roche: Speakers Bureau; Kedrion: Consultancy; Ablynx: Other: Member of Advisory Board, Speakers Bureau; Grifols: Speakers Bureau; Sobi: Speakers Bureau; Novo Nordisk: Speakers Bureau; Novo Nordisk: Speakers Bureau; Grifols: Speakers Bureau; Novo Nordisk: Speakers Bureau; Octapharma US: Honoraria; Octapharma US: Honoraria; Kedrion: Consultancy; Octapharma US: Honoraria; Roche: Speakers Bureau; Shire: Speakers Bureau; Sobi: Speakers Bureau; Roche: Speakers Bureau; Shire: Speakers Bureau; Sobi: Speakers Bureau; Octapharma US: Honoraria; Ablynx: Other: Member of Advisory Board, Speakers Bureau; Ablynx: Other: Member of Advisory Board, Speakers Bureau; Kedrion: Consultancy; Grifols: Speakers Bureau; Kedrion: Consultancy; Kedrion: Consultancy; Ablynx: Other: Member of Advisory Board, Speakers Bureau; Grifols: Speakers Bureau; Roche: Speakers Bureau; Roche: Speakers Bureau; Novo Nordisk: Speakers Bureau; Shire: Speakers Bureau; Shire: Speakers Bureau; Sobi: Speakers Bureau; Novo Nordisk: Speakers Bureau; Ablynx: Other: Member of Advisory Board, Speakers Bureau. Coppo:Ablynx: Consultancy. Kremer Hovinga:Ablynx: Other: Member of Advisory Board; Shire: Other: Member of Advisory Board, Research Funding. Metjian:Ablynx: Other: Member of Advisory Board. De La Rubia:Ablynx: Consultancy, Other: Member of Advisory Board. Minkue:Ablynx: Employment. Callewaert:Ablynx: Employment. De Winter:Ablynx: Employment.


2009 ◽  
Vol 27 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. e15005-e15005
Author(s):  
T. J. Price ◽  
M. Peeters ◽  
J. Douillard ◽  
E. Mitchell ◽  
A. Cohn ◽  
...  

e15005 Background: Pmab is a fully human anti-epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) monoclonal antibody approved in the US and EU (wild-type KRAS) as monotherapy for pts with mCRC. Safety data from 4 studies (Siena et al ASCO 2008; Peeters et al ASCO 2008; Cohn et al ASCO 2008; Mitchell et al WORLD GI 2008) of pmab in combination with ctx are summarized. Methods: Two studies are single-arm, phase II trials and two are randomized, phase III trials with pooled, blinded safety data that include ctx-controls. All studies were multicenter. Common pt eligibility criteria included: diagnosis of mCRC with measurable disease per modified RECIST criteria, age ≥ 18 years, and adequate hematologic, renal, hepatic, and metabolic function. All studies required pts to receive FOLFOX, FOLFIRI, or irinotecan ctx in combination with pmab. Pts received pmab 6.0 mg/kg Q2W with FOLFOX Q2W or FOLFIRI Q2W, or pmab 9.0 mg/kg Q3W with irinotecan Q3W. Results from planned interim analyses are available for 3 studies, and results from the final analysis are available for one study. Results: Among the 4-study safety data, 1213 pts received pmab + ctx; 703 pts received pmab + FOLFIRI, 455 pts received pmab + FOLFOX, and 55 pts received pmab + irinotecan. Approximately 1,200 pts were enrolled in each phase III study, and data are available from 1,003 pts who received pmab + ctx and 997 pts who received ctx alone. All pts in the phase III studies, regardless of treatment group, were included in the pooled, blinded interim analysis sets monitored by the data monitoring committee for each study. Safety results for the two phase II studies of pmab + ctx and two phase III studies of pmab ± ctx are summarized (Table). Conclusions: Phase II data are consistent with expectations, and phase III trials are ongoing. A consistent safety profile was observed across studies. [Table: see text] [Table: see text]


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