Optimal indications for chemotherapy in elderly patients with unresectable pancreatic cancer.
450 Background: Pancreatic cancer is seen predominantly in elderly patients. Since many patients with pancreatic cancer have locally advanced unresectable tumors or distant metastases at diagnosis, they require chemotherapy. However, it is difficult to appropriately select elderly patients who are likely to benefit from chemotherapy. This study aimed to identify prognostic factors for elderly patients with unresectable pancreatic cancer treated with chemotherapy. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed the data of 191 patients with pancreatic cancer, aged ≥ 70 years, who had been diagnosed at our hospital between January 2006 and August 2016. Their overall survival (OS) was calculated using Kaplan-Meyer analysis. Prognostic factors were evaluated using Cox regression analysis. Results: Of the 191 patients, 52 patients with unresectable pancreatic cancer were treated with chemotherapy. Their median age was 76.5 years (range, 70–85 years). Twenty-two patients (42%) were men, and 44 (85%) had metastatic disease. Forty-one (79%) and 11 (21%) patients had ECOG performance status (PS) 0–1 and 2–3, respectively. Thirty-eight (73%), 10 (19%), and 4 (8%) patients received gemcitabine, gemcitabine-based combination regimens, and S-1, respectively, as first-line chemotherapy. The median OS was 219 days (range, 7–920 days). On univariate analysis, ECOG PS ≥ 2 (hazard ratio [HR], 4.37; P = 0.0005), carcinoembryonic antigen ≥ 10 ng/mL (HR, 2.32; P = 0.0162), serum AST ≥ 30 U/L (HR, 2.02; P = 0.0263), serum albumin < 3.0 g/dL (HR, 2.38; P = 0.0247), serum C-reactive protein ≥ 0.5 mg/dL (HR, 2.21; P = 0.0140), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio ≥ 5.0 (HR, 3.25; P = 0.0066), and presence of ascites on computed tomography (CT) scans (HR, 3.02; P = 0.0016) were significantly associated with shorter survival times. On multivariate analysis, ECOG PS ≥ 2 (HR, 5.49; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.18–13.32; P = 0.0005) and presence of ascites on CT scans (HR, 2.53; 95% CI, 1.20–5.24; P = 0.0148) were associated with poor OS. Conclusions: Elderly patients with unresectable pancreatic cancer who have a good performance status and do not show ascites on CT scans are likely to benefit from chemotherapy.