scholarly journals A Supplementary Grading Scale for Selecting Patients With Brain Arteriovenous Malformations for Surgery

Neurosurgery ◽  
2010 ◽  
Vol 66 (4) ◽  
pp. 702-713 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael T. Lawton ◽  
Helen Kim ◽  
Charles E. McCulloch ◽  
Bahar Mikhak ◽  
William L. Young
Keyword(s):  
Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve ◽  
Patient Selection ◽  
Arteriovenous Malformations ◽  
Operating Characteristic ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Grading System ◽  
Modified Rankin Scale ◽  
Grading Scale ◽  
Operating Characteristic Curve

Abstract BACKGROUND Patient age, hemorrhagic presentation, nidal diffuseness, and deep perforating artery supply are important factors when selecting patients with brain arteriovenous malformations (AVMs) for surgery. OBJECTIVE We hypothesized that these factors outside of the Spetzler-Martin grading system could be combined into a simple, supplementary grading system that would accurately predict neurologic outcome and refine patient selection. METHODS A consecutive, single-surgeon series of 300 patients with AVMs treated microsurgically was analyzed in terms of change between preoperative and final postoperative modified Rankin Scale scores. Three different multivariable logistic models (full, Spetzler-Martin, and supplementary models) were constructed to test the association of combined predictor variables with the change in modified Rankin Scale score. A simplified supplementary grading system was developed from the data with points assigned according to each variable and added together for a supplementary AVM grade. RESULTS Predictive accuracy was highest for the full multivariable model (receiver operating characteristic curve area, 0.78), followed by the supplementary model (0.73), and least for the Spetzler-Martin model (0.66). Predictive accuracy of the simplified supplementary grade was significantly better than that of the Spetzler-Martin grade (P = .042), with receiver operating characteristic curve areas of 0.73 and 0.65, respectively. CONCLUSION This new AVM grading system supplements rather than replaces the well-established Spetzler-Martin grading system and is a better predictor of neurologic outcomes after AVM surgery. The supplementary grading scale has high predictive accuracy on its own and stratifies surgical risk more evenly. The supplementary grading system is easily applicable at the bedside, where it is intended to improve preoperative risk prediction and patient selection for surgery.

scholarly journals Validation of the DRAGON Score in 12 Stroke Centers in Anterior and Posterior Circulation

Stroke ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 44 (10) ◽  
pp. 2718-2721 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Strbian ◽  
David J. Seiffge ◽  
Lorenz Breuer ◽  
Heikki Numminen ◽  
Patrik Michel ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve ◽  
Receiver Operating Characteristic ◽  
Operating Characteristic ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Intravenous Thrombolysis ◽  
Posterior Circulation ◽  
Modified Rankin Scale ◽  
Stroke Patients ◽  
Operating Characteristic Curve ◽  
Receiver Operating

Background and Purpose— The DRAGON score predicts functional outcome in the hyperacute phase of intravenous thrombolysis treatment of ischemic stroke patients. We aimed to validate the score in a large multicenter cohort in anterior and posterior circulation. Methods— Prospectively collected data of consecutive ischemic stroke patients who received intravenous thrombolysis in 12 stroke centers were merged (n=5471). We excluded patients lacking data necessary to calculate the score and patients with missing 3-month modified Rankin scale scores. The final cohort comprised 4519 eligible patients. We assessed the performance of the DRAGON score with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve in the whole cohort for both good (modified Rankin scale score, 0–2) and miserable (modified Rankin scale score, 5–6) outcomes. Results— Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.84 (0.82–0.85) for miserable outcome and 0.82 (0.80–0.83) for good outcome. Proportions of patients with good outcome were 96%, 93%, 78%, and 0% for 0 to 1, 2, 3, and 8 to 10 score points, respectively. Proportions of patients with miserable outcome were 0%, 2%, 4%, 89%, and 97% for 0 to 1, 2, 3, 8, and 9 to 10 points, respectively. When tested separately for anterior and posterior circulation, there was no difference in performance ( P =0.55); areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve were 0.84 (0.83–0.86) and 0.82 (0.78–0.87), respectively. No sex-related difference in performance was observed ( P =0.25). Conclusions— The DRAGON score showed very good performance in the large merged cohort in both anterior and posterior circulation strokes. The DRAGON score provides rapid estimation of patient prognosis and supports clinical decision-making in the hyperacute phase of stroke care (eg, when invasive add-on strategies are considered).

scholarly journals Cerebellar Arteriovenous Malformations

Neurosurgery ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 71 (6) ◽  
pp. 1111-1124 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Ana Rodríguez-Hernández ◽  
Helen Kim ◽  
Tony Pourmohamad ◽  
William L. Young ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Arteriovenous Malformations ◽  
Operating Characteristic ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Venous Drainage ◽  
Martin Grade ◽  
Operating Characteristic Curve ◽  
Cerebral Avms ◽  
Cerebellar Anatomy ◽  
Better Than

ABSTRACT BACKGROUND: Anatomic diversity among cerebellar arteriovenous malformations (AVMs) calls for a classification that is intuitive and surgically informative. Selection tools like the Spetzler-Martin grading system are designed to work best with cerebral AVMs but have shortcomings with cerebellar AVMs. OBJECTIVE: To define subtypes of cerebellar AVMs that clarify anatomy and surgical management, to determine results according to subtypes, and to compare predictive accuracies of the Spetzler-Martin and supplementary systems. METHODS: From a consecutive surgical series of 500 patients, 60 had cerebellar AVMs, 39 had brainstem AVMs and were excluded, and 401 had cerebral AVMs. RESULTS: Cerebellar AVM subtypes were as follows: 18 vermian, 13 suboccipital, 12 tentorial, 12 petrosal, and 5 tonsillar. Patients with tonsillar and tentorial AVMs fared best. Cerebellar AVMs presented with hemorrhage more than cerebral AVMs (P < .001). Cerebellar AVMs were more likely to drain deep (P = .04) and less likely to be eloquent (P < .001). The predictive accuracy of the supplementary grade was better than that of the Spetzler-Martin grade with cerebellar AVMs (areas under the receiver-operating characteristic curve, 0.74 and 0.59, respectively). The predictive accuracy of the supplementary system was consistent for cerebral and cerebellar AVMs, whereas that of the Spetzler-Martin system was greater with cerebral AVMs. CONCLUSION: Patients with cerebellar AVMs present with hemorrhage more often than patients with cerebral AVMs, justifying an aggressive treatment posture. The supplementary system is better than the Spetzler-Martin system at predicting outcomes after cerebellar AVM resection. Key components of the Spetzler-Martin system such as venous drainage and eloquence are distorted by cerebellar anatomy in ways that components of the supplementary system are not.

scholarly journals Comparative Analysis of Anterior Segment Parameters in Normal and Keratoconus Eyes Generated by Scheimpflug Tomography

2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Faik Orucoglu ◽  
Ebru Toker
Keyword(s):  
Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve ◽  
Receiver Operating Characteristic ◽  
Sensitivity And Specificity ◽  
Operating Characteristic ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Anterior Segment ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Operating Characteristic Curve ◽  
Receiver Operating

Purpose. To assess and compare the anterior and posterior corneal surface parameters, keratoconus indices, thickness profile data, and data from enhanced elevation maps of keratoconic and normal corneas with the Pentacam Scheimpflug corneal tomography and to determine the sensitivity and specificity of these parameters in discriminating keratoconus from normal eyes.Methods. The study included 656 keratoconus eyes and 515 healthy eyes with a mean age of30.95±9.25and32.90±14.78years, respectively. Forty parameters obtained from the Pentacam tomography were assessed by the receiver operating characteristic curve analysis for their efficiency.Results. Receiver operating characteristic curve analyses showed excellent predictive accuracy (area under the curve, ranging from 0.914 to 0.972) for 21 of the 40 parameters evaluated. Among all parameters indices of vertical asymmetry, keratoconus index, front elevation at thinnest location, back elevation at thinnest location, Ambrósio Relational Thickness (ARTmax), deviation of average pachymetric progression, deviation of ARTmax, and total deviation showed excellent (>90%) sensitivity and specificity in addition to excellent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC).Conclusions. Parameters derived from the topometric and Belin-Ambrósio enhanced ectasia display maps very effectively discriminate keratoconus from normal corneas with excellent sensitivity and specificity.

A validated novel preoperative index to predict the extent of intraperitoneal contamination in patients with acute abdominal pathology: A cohort study

2019 ◽  
Vol 30 (7-8) ◽  
pp. 221-228
Author(s):  
Shahab Hajibandeh ◽  
Shahin Hajibandeh ◽  
Nicholas Hobbs ◽  
Jigar Shah ◽  
Matthew Harris ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve ◽  
Receiver Operating Characteristic ◽  
Operating Characteristic ◽  
Validation Cohort ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Curve Analysis ◽  
Emergency Laparotomy ◽  
Contamination Index ◽  
Operating Characteristic Curve ◽  
Receiver Operating

Aims To investigate whether an intraperitoneal contamination index (ICI) derived from combined preoperative levels of C-reactive protein, lactate, neutrophils, lymphocytes and albumin could predict the extent of intraperitoneal contamination in patients with acute abdominal pathology. Methods Patients aged over 18 who underwent emergency laparotomy for acute abdominal pathology between January 2014 and October 2018 were randomly divided into primary and validation cohorts. The proposed intraperitoneal contamination index was calculated for each patient in each cohort. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was performed to determine discrimination of the index and cut-off values of preoperative intraperitoneal contamination index that could predict the extent of intraperitoneal contamination. Results Overall, 468 patients were included in this study; 234 in the primary cohort and 234 in the validation cohort. The analyses identified intraperitoneal contamination index of 24.77 and 24.32 as cut-off values for purulent contamination in the primary cohort (area under the curve (AUC): 0.73, P < 0.0001; sensitivity: 84%, specificity: 60%) and validation cohort (AUC: 0.83, P < 0.0001; sensitivity: 91%, specificity: 69%), respectively. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis also identified intraperitoneal contamination index of 33.70 and 33.41 as cut-off values for feculent contamination in the primary cohort (AUC: 0.78, P < 0.0001; sensitivity: 87%, specificity: 64%) and validation cohort (AUC: 0.79, P < 0.0001; sensitivity: 86%, specificity: 73%), respectively. Conclusions As a predictive measure which is derived purely from biomarkers, intraperitoneal contamination index may be accurate enough to predict the extent of intraperitoneal contamination in patients with acute abdominal pathology and to facilitate decision-making together with clinical and radiological findings.

scholarly journals Evaluation of factors that predict the success rate of trial of labor after the cesarean section

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yang Mi ◽  
Pengfei Qu ◽  
Na Guo ◽  
Ruimiao Bai ◽  
Jiayi Gao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Cesarean Section ◽  
Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve ◽  
Success Rate ◽  
Operating Characteristic ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Predictive Ability ◽  
Training Set ◽  
History Of ◽  
Operating Characteristic Curve

Abstract Background For most women who have had a previous cesarean section, vaginal birth after cesarean section (VBAC) is a reasonable and safe choice, but which will increase the risk of adverse outcomes such as uterine rupture. In order to reduce the risk, we evaluated the factors that may affect VBAC and and established a model for predicting the success rate of trial of the labor after cesarean section (TOLAC). Methods All patients who gave birth at Northwest Women’s and Children’s Hospital from January 2016 to December 2018, had a history of cesarean section and voluntarily chose the TOLAC were recruited. Among them, 80% of the population was randomly assigned to the training set, while the remaining 20% were assigned to the external validation set. In the training set, univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were used to identify indicators related to successful TOLAC. A nomogram was constructed based on the results of multiple logistic regression analysis, and the selected variables included in the nomogram were used to predict the probability of successfully obtaining TOLAC. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was used to judge the predictive ability of the model. Results A total of 778 pregnant women were included in this study. Among them, 595 (76.48%) successfully underwent TOLAC, whereas 183 (23.52%) failed and switched to cesarean section. In multi-factor logistic regression, parity = 1, pre-pregnancy BMI < 24 kg/m2, cervical score ≥ 5, a history of previous vaginal delivery and neonatal birthweight < 3300 g were associated with the success of TOLAC. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve in the prediction and validation models was 0.815 (95% CI: 0.762–0.854) and 0.730 (95% CI: 0.652–0.808), respectively, indicating that the nomogram prediction model had medium discriminative power. Conclusion The TOLAC was useful to reducing the cesarean section rate. Being primiparous, not overweight or obese, having a cervical score ≥ 5, a history of previous vaginal delivery or neonatal birthweight < 3300 g were protective indicators. In this study, the validated model had an approving predictive ability.

The gut hormone GLP-2 predicts cardiovascular risk in patients with acute myocardial infarction

2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (Supplement_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
F Kahles ◽  
R.W Mertens ◽  
M.V Rueckbeil ◽  
M.C Arrivas ◽  
J Moellmann ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Myocardial Infarction ◽  
Cardiovascular Disease ◽  
Acute Myocardial Infarction ◽  
Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve ◽  
Operating Characteristic ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Funding Source ◽  
Cardiovascular Prognosis ◽  
Operating Characteristic Curve ◽  
Hs Crp

Abstract Background GLP-1 and GLP-2 (glucagon-like peptide-1/2) are gut derived hormones that are co-secreted from intestinal L-cells in response to food intake. While GLP-1 is known to induce postprandial insulin secretion, GLP-2 enhances intestinal nutrient absorption and is clinically used for the treatment of patients with short bowel syndrome. The relevance of the GLP-2 system for cardiovascular disease is unknown. Purpose The aim of this study was to assess the predictive capacity of GLP-2 for cardiovascular prognosis in patients with myocardial infarction. Methods Total GLP-2 levels, NT-proBNP concentrations and the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) score were assessed at time of admission in 918 patients with myocardial infarction, among them 597 patients with NSTEMI and 321 with STEMI. The primary composite outcome of the study was the first occurrence of cardiovascular death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, or nonfatal stroke (3-P-MACE) with a median follow-up of 311 days. Results Kaplan-Meier survival plots (separated by the median of GLP-2 with a cut-off value of 4.4 ng/mL) and univariable cox regression analyses found GLP-2 values to be associated with adverse outcome (logarithmized GLP-2 values HR: 2.87; 95% CI: 1.75–4.68; p&lt;0.0001). Further adjustment for age, sex, smoking, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, diabetes mellitus, family history of cardiovascular disease, hs-Troponin T, NT-proBNP and hs-CRP levels did not affect the association of GLP-2 with poor prognosis (logarithmized GLP-2 values HR: 2.96; 95% CI: 1.38–6.34; p=0.0053). Receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) analyses illustrated that GLP-2 is a strong indicator for cardiovascular events and proved to be comparable to other established risk markers (area under the curve of the combined endpoint at 6 months; GLP-2: 0.72; hs-Troponin: 0.56; NT-proBNP: 0.70; hs-CRP: 0.62). Adjustment of the GRACE risk estimate by GLP-2 increased the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve for the combined triple endpoint after 6 months from 0.70 (GRACE) to 0.75 (GRACE + GLP-2) in NSTEMI patients. Addition of GLP-2 to a model containing GRACE and NT-proBNP led to a further improvement in model performance (increase in AUC from 0.72 for GRACE + NT-proBNP to 0.77 for GRACE + NT-proBNP + GLP-2). Conclusions In patients admitted with acute myocardial infarction, GLP-2 levels are associated with adverse cardiovascular prognosis. This demonstrates a strong yet not appreciated crosstalk between the heart and the gut with relevance for cardiovascular outcome. Future studies are needed to further explore this crosstalk with the possibility of new treatment avenues for cardiovascular disease. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: Public grant(s) – National budget only. Main funding source(s): German Society of Cardiology (DGK), German Research Foundation (DFG)

A conditional approach for the receiver operating characteristic curve construction to evaluate diagnostic test performance in a family-matched case–control design

2021 ◽  
pp. 096228022199595
Author(s):  
Yalda Zarnegarnia ◽  
Shari Messinger
Keyword(s):  
Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve ◽  
Receiver Operating Characteristic ◽  
Operating Characteristic ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Case Control ◽  
Paired Data ◽  
Characteristic Curves ◽  
Receiver Operating Characteristic Curves ◽  
Operating Characteristic Curve ◽  
Receiver Operating

Receiver operating characteristic curves are widely used in medical research to illustrate biomarker performance in binary classification, particularly with respect to disease or health status. Study designs that include related subjects, such as siblings, usually have common environmental or genetic factors giving rise to correlated biomarker data. The design could be used to improve detection of biomarkers informative of increased risk, allowing initiation of treatment to stop or slow disease progression. Available methods for receiver operating characteristic construction do not take advantage of correlation inherent in this design to improve biomarker performance. This paper will briefly review some developed methods for receiver operating characteristic curve estimation in settings with correlated data from case–control designs and will discuss the limitations of current methods for analyzing correlated familial paired data. An alternative approach using conditional receiver operating characteristic curves will be demonstrated. The proposed approach will use information about correlation among biomarker values, producing conditional receiver operating characteristic curves that evaluate the ability of a biomarker to discriminate between affected and unaffected subjects in a familial paired design.

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