scholarly journals The Cyclicality of Sales, Regular and Effective Prices: Business Cycle and Policy Implications: Reply

2019 ◽  
Vol 109 (1) ◽  
pp. 314-324 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olivier Coibion ◽  
Yuriy Gorodnichenko ◽  
Gee Hee Hong
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Price Inflation ◽  
Weighting Schemes ◽  
Wide Variability ◽  
Posted Price

We address how using different censoring thresholds and imputation procedures affects the baseline results of Coibion, Gorodnichenko, and Hong (2015). Higher censoring thresholds introduce measure ment error and outliers that generate wide variability in results across weighting schemes, but methods that explicitly control for outliers confirm the results of Coibion, Gorodnichenko, and Hong (2015) for all censoring thresholds. We also illustrate how the BLS’s approach to imputing missing prices can introduce a cyclical bias into measures of posted price inflation when store-switching is present in the data. (JEL D12, E31, E32, L25, L81)

scholarly journals Emergency Manager Perceptions of the Effectiveness and Limitations of Mass Notification Systems: A Mixed Method Study

2020 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
William V. Pelfrey
Keyword(s):  
Text Messaging ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Notification System ◽  
Emergency Managers ◽  
Emergency Manager ◽  
Wide Variability ◽  
Manager Perceptions ◽  
Critical Resource ◽  
Multi Method Approach ◽  
Method Approach

AbstractDisasters can move quickly. Effective communication is a critical resource that can significantly enhance public safety. A mass notification system (MNS) uses text messaging to inform constituents of crisis, provide recommendations, connect to resources, and has the advantage of speed. Limited research has been conducted on the variables that influence the effectiveness, utilization, and perceptions of MNS. The extant study employs a multi-method approach to advance the scholarly knowledge on MNS. All emergency managers in a state were surveyed on issues of MNS enrollment, utilization, and brand. A subgroup of emergency managers were then interviewed to provide depth to the survey findings. Key findings indicate wide variability in MNS usage, little relationship between population size and enrollment, and a high perceived importance of MNS as a communication modality. Policy implications and recommendations are offered.

Shifting Drivers of Growth: Policy Implications for ASEAN-5

2015 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 157-173 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kong Yam Tan ◽  
Tilak Abeysinghe ◽  
Khee Giap Tan
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
The United States ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Structural Vector Autoregression ◽  
Research Papers ◽  
Vector Autoregression Model ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Multiplier Effects ◽  
Export Destination

How the old saying “when the United States sneezes, the world catches a cold” holds true has been the subject of many research papers on global and country group business cycle synchronization and divergence. Instead of business cycle linkages, however, this paper examines the evolution of the dependence of ASEAN-5 and other Asian economies on their traditional and emerging growth engines (the United States, EU, Japan, China, and India). For this we use a structural vector autoregression model that yields time-varying growth multiplier effects. Although China has overtaken others as a major export destination for ASEAN-5 and despite the United States losing much of its relative economic clout in Asia, the multiplier effects show that the United States is still about 1.5 times more growth-enhancing than China for ASEAN-5. The EU has also not lost out completely to China as a growth engine. China, however, has overtaken Japan to become about 1.88 times more growth enhancing than Japan for ASEAN-5. India has yet to become a significant growth engine, although it is of increasing importance to Singapore, Malaysia, and Indonesia. These results call for new initiatives to balance the rising over-dependence on China.

scholarly journals Expectations, employment and prices: A suggested interpretation of the new ‘Farmerian’ economics

2011 ◽  
Vol 1 (4) ◽  
pp. 7-18
Author(s):  
Marco Guerrazzi
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Demand Management ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Special Importance ◽  
Suggested Approach ◽  
Animal Spirits ◽  
Management Interventions ◽  
Search Mechanism ◽  
Empirical Implications

This paper aims at providing a critical assessment of the new ‘Farmerian’ economics, i.e. the recent Farmer’s attempt to provide a new microfoundation of the General Theory grounded on modern search and business cycle theories. Specifically, I develop a theoretical model that summarizes the main arguments of the suggested approach by showing that a special importance has to be attached to the search mechanism, the choice of units and ‘animal spirits’ modelling. Thereafter, referring to selfmade real-business-cycle experiments, I discuss the main empirical implications of the resulting framework. Finally, I consider its policy implications by stressing the problematic nature of demand management interventions and the advisability of extending the role of the central bank in preventing financial bubbles and crashes.

scholarly journals 1Are Some Groups More Vulnerable to Business Cycle Shocks than Others? A Regional Analysis of Pakistan’s Labor Market

2017 ◽  
Vol 22 (Special Edition) ◽  
pp. 199-231
Author(s):  
Mehak Ejaz ◽  
Kalim Hyder
Keyword(s):  
Panel Data ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Social Innovation ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Regional Analysis ◽  
Vulnerability Index ◽  
Safety Net ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Vulnerable Groups ◽  
Socioeconomic Groups

This study identifies the extent to which various socioeconomic groups are vulnerable to aggregate business cycle fluctuations. Socioeconomic groups are classified by gender, location, employment status, education, income and age cohort. The asymmetric behavior of aggregate economic growth indicates that some groups gain less during recovery and boom phases and are thus most vulnerable to recessions. A vulnerability index in calculated for different socioeconomic groups and the empirical results show that employers with a graduate degree in Balochistan are the most vulnerable group and that female workers are more vulnerable than male workers. Additionally, the study employs panel data on inflation and employment to investigate the implications of macroeconomic fluctuations on vulnerable groups. The results indicate that food inflation has a strong negative impact on real earnings, while nonfood inflation increases real earnings. The panel data and vulnerability index findings are consistent with each other. The study also presents policy implications for existing public social safety net programs and prospective private social innovation programs targeting vulnerable households.

scholarly journals The Cyclicality of Sales, Regular and Effective Prices: Business Cycle and Policy Implications

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (207) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Olivier Coibion ◽  
Yuriy Gorodnichenko ◽  
Gee Hee Hong ◽  
◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Policy Implications

Learning over the business cycle: Policy implications

2020 ◽  
Vol 190 ◽  
pp. 105115
Author(s):  
George-Marios Angeletos ◽  
Luigi Iovino ◽  
Jennifer La'O
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
The Business Cycle

Understanding regional variation in fish prices: evidence from a developing economy

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 475-492
Author(s):  
Meenakshi Rajeev ◽  
Pranav Nagendran
Keyword(s):  
Gravity Model ◽  
Value Chain ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Relative Price ◽  
Transport Infrastructure ◽  
Price Inflation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Aquaculture Fish ◽  
Price Differences

PurposeThis paper examines the prices of fishery products (an important source of protein for the poor) and drivers of their inter-regional variations in India, where fishery is a critical sector. By explaining regional price differences, we make an attempt to derive policy implications as to how fish price inflation can be controlled.Design/methodology/approachThe paper is primarily based on secondary data provided by the Ministry of Agriculture, Government of India. In the absence of data on inter-regional trade, appropriate indicators are constructed using the gravity model to capture supply side factors that may influence regional price differences. Pooled regressions are carried out for a representative marine and an aquaculture fish variety separately for the period 2011 to 2017.FindingsAfter controlling for income levels, it is found that marine fish prices can be reduced by improving intra-state transport infrastructure. For reducing the price of aquacultures, it is shown that it is imperative to reduce the distance between producers and consumers.Research limitations/implicationsThe study is limited by the availability of data on interstate trade and consumption of fish and has only used prices of representative fish varieties instead of average marine and aquaculture fish prices.Originality/valueThis paper considers trade and value chain based business theories to explain regional price differences. It analyzes the drivers of relative price differences and suggests measures to control them using a gravity model of trade.

Macroeconomic drivers of London house prices

2018 ◽  
Vol 36 (6) ◽  
pp. 539-551 ◽  
Author(s):  
Petros Stavrou Sivitanides
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
House Prices ◽  
House Price ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Empirical Literature ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Price Inflation ◽  
Partial Adjustment ◽  
Content Type

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to validate and quantify the effect of key macroeconomic drivers on London house prices using annual data over the period 1983–2016. Design/methodology/approach Within this context, the authors estimate alternative error-correction and partial-adjustment models (PAMs), which have been widely used in the empirical literature in modelling the slow adjustments of house prices to demand and supply shocks. Findings The results verify the existence of a strong long-term relationship between London house prices and key macroeconomic variables, such as UK GDP, London population and housing completions. A key finding of the study relevant to the debate on the causes of the housing affordability crisis is that the results provide little evidence in support of the argument that user demand, which is captured in the author’s model by Greater London population, may have had a diminished role in driving house price inflation in London. Practical implications The practical and policy implications of the results are that increased homebuilding activity in London will undoubtedly help limit house price increases. Also, any potential reduction of immigration and economic growth due to Brexit will also have a similar effect. Originality/value The originality of this research lies in the use of annual data that may better capture the long-term effect of macroeconomic drivers on house prices and the estimation of such effects through both error-correction and partial-adjustment models.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document