scholarly journals Job Seekers’ Perceptions and Employment Prospects: Heterogeneity, Duration Dependence, and Bias

2021 ◽  
Vol 111 (1) ◽  
pp. 324-363
Author(s):  
Andreas I. Mueller ◽  
Johannes Spinnewijn ◽  
Giorgio Topa
Keyword(s):  
Predictive Power ◽  
Search Behavior ◽  
Duration Dependence ◽  
Optimistic Bias ◽  
Job Seekers ◽  
Dynamic Selection ◽  
Duration Of Unemployment ◽  
Job Finding ◽  
Substantial Heterogeneity

This paper uses job seekers’ elicited beliefs about job finding to disentangle the sources of the decline in job-finding rates by duration of unemployment. We document that beliefs have strong predictive power for job finding, but are not revised downward when remaining unemployed and are subject to optimistic bias, especially for the long-term unemployed. Leveraging the predictive power of beliefs, we find substantial heterogeneity in job finding with the resulting dynamic selection explaining most of the observed negative duration dependence in job finding. Moreover, job seekers’ beliefs underreact to heterogeneity in job finding, distorting search behavior and increasing long-term unemployment. (JEL D83, E24, J22, J64, J65)

Statistical Discrimination and Duration Dependence in the Job Finding Rate

2018 ◽  
Vol 86 (4) ◽  
pp. 1631-1665 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gregor Jarosch ◽  
Laura Pilossoph
Keyword(s):  
Experimental Evidence ◽  
Labour Market ◽  
Statistical Discrimination ◽  
Unemployment Duration ◽  
Duration Dependence ◽  
Dynamic Selection ◽  
Job Finding ◽  
Large Decline

Abstract This article models a frictional labour market where employers endogenously discriminate against the long-term unemployed. The estimated model replicates recent experimental evidence which documents that interview invitations for observationally equivalent workers fall sharply as unemployment duration progresses. We use the model to quantitatively assess the consequences of such employer behaviour for job finding rates and long-term unemployment and find only modest effects given the large decline in callbacks. Interviews lost to duration impact individual job finding rates solely if they would have led to jobs. We show that such instances are rare when firms discriminate in anticipation of an ultimately unsuccessful application. Discrimination in callbacks is thus largely a response to dynamic selection, with limited consequences for structural duration dependence and long-term unemployment.

scholarly journals Management of Myositis-Associated Interstitial Lung Disease

Medicina ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 57 (4) ◽  
pp. 347
Author(s):  
Tomoyuki Fujisawa
Keyword(s):  
Interstitial Lung Disease ◽  
Lung Disease ◽  
Current Knowledge ◽  
Strong Predictor ◽  
Calcineurin Inhibitors ◽  
Pulmonary Involvement ◽  
Trna Synthetase ◽  
Evidence Based Guidelines ◽  
Substantial Heterogeneity

Idiopathic inflammatory myopathies, including polymyositis (PM), dermatomyositis (DM), and clinically amyopathic DM (CADM), are a diverse group of autoimmune diseases characterized by muscular involvement and extramuscular manifestations. Interstitial lung disease (ILD) has major pulmonary involvement and is associated with increased mortality in PM/DM/CADM. The management of PM-/DM-/CADM-associated ILD (PM/DM/CADM-ILD) requires careful evaluation of the disease severity and clinical subtype, including the ILD forms (acute/subacute or chronic), because of the substantial heterogeneity of their clinical courses. Recent studies have highlighted the importance of myositis-specific autoantibodies’ status, especially anti-melanoma differentiation-associated gene 5 (MDA5) and anti-aminoacyl tRNA synthetase (ARS) antibodies, in order to evaluate the clinical phenotypes and treatment of choice for PM/DM/CADM-ILD. Because the presence of the anti-MDA5 antibody is a strong predictor of a worse prognosis, combination treatment with glucocorticoids (GCs) and calcineurin inhibitors (CNIs; tacrolimus (TAC) or cyclosporin A (CsA)) is recommended for patients with anti-MDA5 antibody-positive DM/CADM-ILD. Rapidly progressive DM/CADM-ILD with the anti-MDA5 antibody is the most intractable condition, which requires immediate combined immunosuppressive therapy with GCs, CNIs, and intravenous cyclophosphamide. Additional salvage therapies (rituximab, tofacitinib, and plasma exchange) should be considered for patients with refractory ILD. Patients with anti-ARS antibody-positive ILD respond better to GC treatment, but with frequent recurrence; thus, GCs plus immunosuppressants (TAC, CsA, azathioprine, and mycophenolate mofetil) are often needed in order to achieve favorable long-term disease control. PM/DM/CADM-ILD management is still a therapeutic challenge for clinicians, as evidence-based guidelines do not exist to help with management decisions. A few prospective clinical trials have been recently reported regarding the treatment of PM/DM/CADM-ILD. Here, the current knowledge on the pharmacologic managements of PM/DM/CADM-ILD was mainly reviewed.

The Productivity of Unemployment and the Temporality of Employment-to-Come: Older Disadvantaged Job Seekers

2021 ◽  
pp. 136078042110095
Author(s):  
Jessica Gerrard ◽  
Juliet Watson
Keyword(s):  
Qualitative Research ◽  
Education And Training ◽  
Job Seekers ◽  
Voluntary Work ◽  
To Come ◽  
And Training

This article demonstrates how unemployment is made productive through workfare activities for older disadvantaged job seekers. We suggest that the requirement to look for work, engage in education and training, and participate in voluntary work blurs the boundaries between employment and unemployment. Drawing on in-depth qualitative research with older disadvantaged job seekers, we demonstrate how this obligatory productivity is lived and felt, characterised by shame and frustration and framed by the temporality of waiting and searching for work. We suggest that this experience of ‘productive’ unemployment can be described as a dissonant state of ‘transitional stasis’, whereby job seekers are expected to transition out of unemployment and poverty while experiencing the long-term and ongoing effects of immobility.

Assessing the Predictive Power of Vulnerability Measures: Evidence from Panel Data for Argentina and Chile

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcelo Bérgolo ◽  
Guillermo Cruces ◽  
Andrés Ham
Keyword(s):  
Panel Data ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Household Level ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Biased Estimates

This article carries out a validation exercise of vulnerability measures as predictors of poverty at the aggregate and micro levels based on short and long term panel data for Argentina and Chile. It then compares their performance to that of deprivation indicators. The main findings indicate that while vulnerability measures are good predictors of poverty in the aggregate, the same does not occur at household level. These results imply that while useful, vulnerability estimates require incorporating shocks to attenuate biased estimates if they are to be used for targeting purposes.

scholarly journals Lead, zinc, and chromium concentrations in acidic headwater streams in Sweden explained by chemical, climatic, and land-use variations

2012 ◽  
Vol 9 (11) ◽  
pp. 4323-4335 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. J. Huser ◽  
J. Fölster ◽  
S. J. Köhler
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Headwater Streams ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Seasonal Differences ◽  
Metal Concentrations ◽  
Lead Zinc ◽  
Term Data

Abstract. Long-term data series (1996–2009) for eleven acidic headwater streams (< 10 km2) in Sweden were analyzed to determine factors controlling concentrations of trace metals. In-stream chemical data as well climatic, flow, and deposition chemistry data were used to develop models predicting concentrations of chromium (Cr), lead (Pb), and zinc (Zn). Data were initially analyzed using partial least squares to determine a set of variables that could predict metal concentrations across all sites. Organic matter (as absorbance) and iron related positively to Pb and Cr, while pH related negatively to Pb and Zn. Other variables such as conductivity, manganese, and temperature were important as well. Multiple linear regression was then used to determine minimally adequate prediction models which explained an average of 35% (Cr), 52% (Zn), and 72% (Pb) of metal variation across all sites. While models explained at least 50% of variation in the majority of sites for Pb (10) and Zn (8), only three sites met this criterion for Cr. Investigation of variation between site models for each metal revealed geographical (altitude), chemical (sulfate), and land-use (silvaculture) influences on predictive power of the models. Residual analysis revealed seasonal differences in the ability of the models to predict metal concentrations as well. Expected future changes in model variables were applied and results showed the potential for long-term increases (Pb) or decreases (Zn) for trace metal concentrations at these sites.

Networking as a Job-Search Behavior and Career Management Strategy

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Monica L. Forret
Keyword(s):  
Social Networks ◽  
Social Network ◽  
Job Search ◽  
Management Strategy ◽  
Search Behavior ◽  
Career Management ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Job Seekers ◽  
Job Search Behavior ◽  
New Jobs

Networking is often cited as a key to job-search success; however, relatively little scholarly research on networking as a job-search behavior exists. The purpose of this chapter is to review the literature on networking and its relevance for job-search success and career management more broadly. The use of networking for both obtaining new jobs at different employers as well as advancing upward in one’s current organization is considered. This chapter describes the importance of networking for developing career competencies, how networking can enhance a job seeker’s social network, and barriers faced by women and minorities in building their social networks. The multiple ways in which networking has been measured are described, along with the antecedents and outcomes of networking behavior pertinent to job seekers. This chapter discusses the implications of networking as a job-search behavior for job seekers, career counselors, and organizations and concludes with future research suggestions for scholars.

scholarly journals Nonparametric Instrumental Variable Methods for Dynamic Treatment Evaluation

2020 ◽  
Vol 102 (2) ◽  
pp. 355-367
Author(s):  
Gerard J. van den Berg ◽  
Petyo Bonev ◽  
Enno Mammen
Keyword(s):  
Instrumental Variable ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Asymptotic Properties ◽  
Right Censoring ◽  
Unemployment Duration ◽  
Dynamic Selection ◽  
Average Causal Effect ◽  
Variable Approach ◽  
Dynamic Treatment ◽  
Job Finding

We develop an instrumental variable approach for identification of dynamic treatment effects on survival outcomes in the presence of dynamic selection, noncompliance, and right-censoring. The approach is nonparametric and does not require independence of observed and unobserved characteristics or separability assumptions. We propose estimation procedures and derive asymptotic properties. We apply our approach to evaluate a policy reform in which the pathway of unemployment benefits as a function of the unemployment duration is modified. Those who were unemployed at the reform date could choose between the old and the new regime. We find that the new regime has a positive average causal effect on the job finding rate.

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