Long-Term Employment Effects from Job Losses during the COVID-19 Crisis? A Comparison to the Great Recession and Its Slow Recovery

2021 ◽  
Vol 111 ◽  
pp. 481-485
Author(s):  
Till von Wachter
Keyword(s):  
Great Recession ◽  
Job Loss ◽  
Loss Rate ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Slow Recovery ◽  
Employment Effects ◽  
The Great Recession

This paper compares predictions for the long-term reductions in the employment-to-population (EPOP) ratio based on estimates of the overall job-loss rate and the long-term effects of job loss with the actual evolution of the EPOP ratio. It took about ten years after the end of the Great Recession for the EPOP ratio to recover from substantial reductions partly implied by job-loss effects. Based on job loss during the COVID-19 crisis through July, the prediction is that 15-37 percent of the reduction of the EPOP ratio in December 2020 is permanent.

scholarly journals US employment inequality in the Great Recession and the COVID-19 pandemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 223-239
Author(s):  
Steven M. Fazzari ◽  
Ella Needler
Keyword(s):  
Great Recession ◽  
Job Loss ◽  
Significant Shift ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Demographic Groups ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
White Workers ◽  
Employment Inequality ◽  
Racial Ethnic

This article compares inequality in employment across demographic groups in the Great Recession and the COVID-19 pandemic. We develop a measure to capture both how much employment declines during a recession and the persistence of employment losses. Results show a significant shift of job loss from men in the Great Recession to women in the COVID-19 lockdown. White workers fare better than other racial/ethnic groups in both recessions. Black and Hispanic women are hit especially hard in the COVID-19 pandemic. With our job-loss measure, less-educated workers had modestly worse outcomes in the Great Recession. However, during COVID-19, less-educated workers suffer much more severe employment consequences than more-educated groups. We discuss long-term effects of employment inequality and how these findings are relevant to debates about policy responses.

scholarly journals US Employment Inequality in the Great Recession and the COVID-19 Pandemic

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven Fazzari ◽  
◽  
Ella Needler
Keyword(s):  
Great Recession ◽  
Job Loss ◽  
Significant Shift ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Policy Responses ◽  
White Workers ◽  
Employment Inequality ◽  
Racial Ethnic

This article compares inequality in US employment across social groups in the Great Recession and the COVID-19 pandemic. We develop an inequality measure that captures both how much employment declines during a recession and the persistence of those declines. The results show a significant shift of job loss from men in the Great Recession to women in the COVID-19 lockdown. White workers fare better than other racial/ethnic groups in both recessions. Black and Hispanic women are hit especially hard in the COVID-19 pandemic. With our job loss measure, less educated workers had modestly worse outcomes in the Great Recession. However, during COVID-19, less educated workers suffer much more severe employment consequences than more educated groups. We discuss long-term effects of employment inequality and how these findings are relevant to debates about policy responses.

Disruptive Soft Law and Post-Crisis US Reform

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abraham L. Newman ◽  
Elliot Posner
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
Regulatory Reform ◽  
The United States ◽  
Soft Law ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
The Us ◽  
International Interaction

Chapter 6 examines the long-term effects of international soft law on policy in the United States since 2008. The extent and type of post-crisis US cooperation with foreign jurisdictions have varied considerably with far-reaching ramifications for international financial markets. Focusing on the international interaction of reforms in banking and derivatives, the chapter uses the book’s approach to understand US regulation in the wake of the Great Recession. The authors attribute seemingly random variation in the US relationship to foreign regulation and markets to differences in pre-crisis international soft law. Here, the existence (or absence) of robust soft law and standard-creating institutions determines the resources available to policy entrepreneurs as well as their orientation and attitudes toward international cooperation. Soft law plays a central role in the evolution of US regulatory reform and its interface with the rest of the world.

Social Movements

2020 ◽  
pp. 464-478
Author(s):  
Eduardo Romanos
Keyword(s):  
Social Movements ◽  
Collective Action ◽  
Social Movement ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
Model Building ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
National Surveys ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Cross National

According to cross-national surveys, Spaniards are among the Europeans who participate the most in street protests. At the same time, Spanish social movements have been generally understood as deploying a less radical protest repertoire and a relatively weak organizational model. Building upon central concepts in social movement studies, this chapter analyses these and other features of the Spanish activist tradition as compared to other Western countries. An especial attention is paid to the strongest protest cycles in Spanish recent history: the years of the democratic transition and the Great Recession. In doing so, this chapter aims to address the long-term effects of regime transition on domestic collective action and organized protest.

scholarly journals The Long-Term Effects of Financial Hardship on Health: Pre and Post the Great Recession

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. 694-694
Author(s):  
Gillian Marshall
Keyword(s):  
Great Recession ◽  
Medication Use ◽  
Financial Hardship ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Psychological Conditions ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Health And Wellbeing ◽  
Survey Sample ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Purpose: Now 10 years after the Great Recession of 2018, we examined the impact and long-term health outcomes impacting adults (≥ 50 years). Methods: Data from the Health and Retirement Survey (sample n=5,160), was used to examine how changes in financial hardship pre-post the Great Recession of 2008 impacted the likelihood of developing new chronic conditions in 2016. Results: Preliminary results suggest that reduced medication use during the recession was significantly correlated with a higher likelihood of developing arthritis, lung disease, psychological conditions, depression, and greater deterioration of mental and physical health relative to an absence of reduced medication use in 2006 and 2010 (1). Conclusion: These findings underscore the adverse influences of increased financial hardships that impact medication use during recessionary periods on long term health and wellbeing of older adults. They also provide evidence of deleterious effects on health of difficulty paying bills throughout the study period.

Long-term effects on youth career of entering the labour market during the Great Recession

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-15
Author(s):  
Marta Escalonilla ◽  
Begoña Cueto ◽  
Maria Jose Perez Villadóniga
Keyword(s):  
Labour Market ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
The Great Recession

scholarly journals Preventing NEETs during the Great Recession: the effects of mandatory activation programs for young welfare recipients

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emile Cammeraat ◽  
Egbert Jongen ◽  
Pierre Koning
Keyword(s):  
The Netherlands ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
Economic Recession ◽  
Welfare Recipients ◽  
Employment Effects ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Employment Education ◽  
The Impact

AbstractWe study the impact of mandatory activation programs for young welfare recipients in the Netherlands. What makes this reform unique is that it clashed head on with the Great Recession. We use differences-in-differences and data for the period 1999–2012 to estimate the effects of this reform. We find that the reform reduced the number of welfare recipients but had no effect on the number of NEETs (individuals not in employment, education or training). The absence of employment effects contrasts with previous studies on the impact of mandatory activation programs, which we argue is due to the reform taking place during a severe economic recession.

Measuring the Value of Softwood Log Exports: Evidence from Oregon

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Rossi ◽  
Jun Zhai ◽  
Olli-Pekka Kuusela
Keyword(s):  
Great Recession ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Export Markets ◽  
Economic Surplus ◽  
Employment Effects ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Partial Equilibrium Model ◽  
Net Benefits ◽  
Export Competition ◽  
Additional Losses

Abstract Oregon softwood log exports experienced a resurgence during years after the Great Recession. Using an empirically grounded partial equilibrium model, the purpose of this study is to assess the net effects of log exports on total economic surplus by measuring the effects of a hypothetical absence of export markets from 2010:Q1 to 2015:Q4. Based on our modeling results, the net economic losses would have amounted to $248 million during the study period in total. Oregon mills would have gained $1.66 billion in total, whereas landowners would have lost $1.91 billion in total had there not been export markets. Furthermore, additional losses would have occurred from the forgone export premium. Our modeling results suggest that harvests would have been 1.97 billion board feet lower in the absence of export markets. However, Oregon mills would have used an additional 3.0 billion board feet. We also provide estimates for potential employment effects. Study Implications The purpose of our study is to compute how much Oregon mills would have gained from the absence of export competition during the six years after the Great Recession and how much landowners would have lost if they did not have the opportunity to export softwood logs. We also assess how many additional jobs domestic mills would have sustained and how many jobs would have disappeared from logging and transportation activities if exports were absent. Our results inform policymakers and stakeholders about the net benefits of softwood log exports in Oregon, as well as about the distributional consequences of exports.

scholarly journals Social origins and the decision to leave university during the Great recession: the role of the field of study

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Loris Vergolini ◽  
Eleonora Vlach
Keyword(s):  
University Students ◽  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
Social Inequalities ◽  
Drop Out ◽  
Economic Downturn ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Field Of Study ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Drop Out Rate

The recent economic downturn has had profound influences on contemporary European societies. This paper analyzes how the Great Recession affected the drop-out rate among university students in Italy, and whether their chosen field of study moderated its effect. To examine the potential long-term effects of this economic downturn on social inequality, we also explore whether students from less-advantaged families who enrolled in prestigious fields were those pushed out from university in disproportionally high numbers. We investigate the interacting influence of the economic crisis, social inequalities and field of study on drop-out rate using data from the Istat “Survey on the educational and occupational paths of high school graduates” in two cohorts of university students (one who attended university prior to and one during the Great Recession). Results obtained from propensity score matching show that the economic crisis had a negative effect on university participation, which was however less strong for Medicine students. Students from lower socio-economic backgrounds in the most remunerative fields of study (those leading to liberal professions), tended to leave university more often than their well-off peers.

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