Detecting Illegal Arms Trade

We propose a method to detect illegal arms trade based on investor knowledge. We focus on countries under arms embargo and identify events that suddenly increase or decrease conflict intensity. If a weapon-making company is trading illegally, an event that increases the demand for arms may increase stock prices. We find positive event returns for companies headquartered in countries with high corruption and low transparency in arms trade. We also suggest a method to detect potential embargo violations based on chains of reactions by individual stocks. The presumed violations positively correlate with the number of UN investigations and Internet stories. (JEL D74, F13, G14, K42, L64)

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Arms intervention: Weimar Germany, post-imperial influence and weapons trafficking in warlord China

Journal of Modern European History ◽

10.1177/16118944211051858 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 19 (4) ◽

pp. 510-528

Author(s):

Ned Richardson-Little

Keyword(s):

World War I ◽

Colonial Power ◽

World War ◽

German State ◽

Post Colonial ◽

Weimar Germany ◽

Treaty Of Versailles ◽

Arms Trade ◽

Colonial Empire ◽

Arms Embargo

The Treaty of Versailles aimed to strip Germany of both its colonial empire and the global reach of its arms industry. Yet the conflicts in warlord-era China led to the reestablishment of German influence on the other side of the world via the arms trade. Weimar Germany had declared a policy of neutrality and refused to take sides in the Chinese civil war in an effort to demonstrate that as a post-colonial power, it could now act as an honest broker. From below, however, traffickers based in Germany and German merchants in China worked to evade Versailles restrictions and an international arms embargo to supply warlords with weapons of war. Although the German state officially aimed to remain neutral, criminal elements, rogue diplomats, black marketeers and eventually military adventurers re-established German influence in the region by becoming key advisors and suppliers to the victorious Guomindang. Illicit actors in Germany and China proved to be crucial in linking the two countries and in eventually overturning the arms control regimes that were imposed in the wake of World War I.

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The Difficulties of Exercising Extraterritorial Criminal Jurisdiction: The Acquittal of a Dutch Businessman for Crimes Committed in Liberia

International Criminal Law Review ◽

10.1163/157181209x398899 ◽

2009 ◽

Vol 9 (1) ◽

pp. 211-226 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Larissa van den Herik

Keyword(s):

War Crimes ◽

Public Prosecutor ◽

Cultural Setting ◽

The Public ◽

Criminal Jurisdiction ◽

Arms Trade ◽

Arms Embargo ◽

Court Of First Instance ◽

Court Of Appeal ◽

Dutch Court

AbstractReports of the NGO Global Witness in which the implication of the Dutchman Kouwenhoven in the civil war in Liberia was exposed served as the lead for the Dutch Prosecution Office to start a criminal case against this national. In June 2006, the Dutch businessman Guus Kouwenhoven was convicted in first instance for the violation of an arms embargo, but acquitted of the count on war crimes. On appeal, Kouwenhoven was fully acquitted of all charges. In its judgment quashing the prior conviction, the Dutch Court of Appeal heavily criticized the Public Prosecutor and observed that the case against Kouwenhoven was built on quicksand. Even though not based on universal jurisdiction, the case does illustrate the inherent complexities of exercising extraterritorial criminal jurisdiction. A remarkable aspect of the case is that the Court of Appeal evaluated the evidence presented in a fundamentally different way than the Court of First Instance had done. This might be related to the inherent difficulties of assessing “foreign evidence”. In this note, it is argued that when adjudicating such foreign cases, national judges being unfamiliar with the historical and cultural setting in which the alleged crimes took place, should call upon experts on the region to assist in the evaluation of the evidence. In terms of substance, the case leads to interesting questions as to how charges of illegal arms trade do and should relate to charges of complicity in war crimes.

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The Influence of Brexit on the UK’s Arms Trade Policy and Arms Embargo on China

Brexit and After ◽

10.1007/978-981-15-7969-1_14 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 199-213

Author(s):

Yongshu Li

Keyword(s):

Trade Policy ◽

Arms Trade ◽

Arms Embargo

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The Effect of Current Ratio and Debt to Asset Ratio on Net Profit Margin and Stock Prices: A Study of Basic Industry and Chemicals Companies

International Journal of Scientific Research in Science and Technology ◽

10.32628/ijsrst207561 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 282-294

Author(s):

Sudirman S ◽

Muhammad Wahyuddin Abdullah ◽

Muhammad Obie

Keyword(s):

Stock Prices ◽

Stock Exchange ◽

Secondary Data ◽

Profit Margin ◽

Current Ratio ◽

Industry Sector ◽

Basic Industry ◽

Net Profit ◽

Equity Ratio ◽

Index Value

This study examined the effect of current ratio and debt to asset ratio on net profit margin and stock prices of the sector basic industry and chemicals companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange in the period 2015-2019. The object of research was the stock prices of companies in the Basic Industry and Chemicals sector, which have been published through the official website of the Indonesian capital market. It was used secondary data derived from the monthly statistics, including Current Ratio data, Net Profit Margin, Debt to Asset Ratio, and data on closing prices for the period 2015-2019. In analyzing data, it was used path analysis of secondary data obtained from the basic industry sector financial statements of 60 companies. The company's performance in this sector is considered quite good when seen from the movement of the index value in the last five years. The results show that direct current ratio had a positive and significant effect on the net profit margin, and the debt to equity ratio did not significantly influence the net profit margin. The current ratio has a positive and significant effect on stock prices, and the debt to equity ratio has a negative and not significant effect on stock prices. In contrast, the net profit margin has a significant effect on stock prices in the basic industry sector companies on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. Indirectly the current ratio has a positive and significant effect on stock prices. In contrast, the debt to asset ratio has a negative and not significant effect on the company's stock prices in the basic industry sector on the Indonesia Stock Exchange.

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An Empirical Investigation of Factors Affecting Stock Prices in Vietnam

Journal of Economics and Development ◽

10.33301/2014.16.01.05 ◽

2014 ◽

pp. 74-89 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Vinh Vo Xuan

Keyword(s):

Exchange Rates ◽

Crude Oil ◽

Foreign Exchange ◽

Stock Prices ◽

Global Financial Crisis ◽

Oil Prices ◽

Foreign Exchange Rates ◽

Factors Affecting ◽

Crude Oil Prices ◽

Before And After

This paper investigates factors affecting Vietnam’s stock prices including US stock prices, foreign exchange rates, gold prices and crude oil prices. Using the daily data from 2005 to 2012, the results indicate that Vietnam’s stock prices are influenced by crude oil prices. In addition, Vietnam’s stock prices are also affected significantly by US stock prices, and foreign exchange rates over the period before the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. There is evidence that Vietnam’s stock prices are highly correlated with US stock prices, foreign exchange rates and gold prices for the same period. Furthermore, Vietnam’s stock prices were cointegrated with US stock prices both before and after the crisis, and with foreign exchange rates, gold prices and crude oil prices only during and after the crisis.

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