scholarly journals Vector Autoregressive Analysis - VAR Foreign Direct Investment and Unemployment : Sudan, 1990 - 2016 = الاستثمار الأجنبي المباشر والبطالة : السودان، 1990 - 2016

2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 224-235 ◽  
Author(s):  
Omer Ahmed Sayed Mohamed

Author(s):  
Anderson Chen Lu Chua ◽  
Jerome Kueh ◽  
Sze Wei Yong ◽  
Josephine Yau ◽  
Audrey Liwan

This paper aims to investigate the short and long term association between Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and overall consumer affordability in Malaysia Real Estate Sector using Vector Autoregressive model. Sample period used is 2009:Q1 to 2017:Q4. FDI is scapegoated as the leading cause of decreasing affordability in real estate. In most cases, FDI on real estate contributes to the rising income of the country. Increasing income promotes demand to a higher threshold level. Thus, theoretically will cause housing price to increase. Through this study, evidence of no cointegration and absence of Granger causality converge towards deficiency of relationship among FDI and Housing Affordability Index (HAI). Findings pointed out FDI is not the cause of decreasing HAI.



2017 ◽  
Vol 33 (1) ◽  
pp. 20-45
Author(s):  
Rudra P. Pradhan ◽  
Mak Arvin ◽  
John H. Hall ◽  
Sara E. Bennett ◽  
Sahar Bahmani

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to shed light on the age-old trade-and-economic-growth controversy. The authors do so by utilizing the data relating to the G-20 countries between 1988 and 2013. Design/methodology/approach The authors seek to establish the formal statistical links between openness to trade and economic growth in the context of interactions with financial depth, gross capital formation, and foreign direct investment. The authors use a panel vector autoregressive model to obtain the estimates. The authors check for the robustness of the results. Findings The authors find that all the variables are cointegrated. That is, there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between the variables. Moreover, trade openness, financial depth, gross capital formation, and foreign direct investment are all causative factors for the economic growth of the G-20 countries in the long run. At the same time, the short-run results demonstrate that there is a myriad of causal links between these variables. Practical implications The decision makers in the G-20 countries wishing to encourage economic growth in the long run should pay close attention to trade openness, financial depth, gross capital formation, and foreign direct investment inflows to their countries. Originality/value The authors study an important group of countries over a long span of time, using advanced panel data techniques. The results demonstrate that future studies on economic growth that do not simultaneously consider trade openness, financial depth, foreign direct investment, and gross capital formation will offer biased or misguided results.



2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nabyonga Barbra ◽  
Hina Nawaz

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and Economic growth as measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP) over Uganda, from 1980-2018. Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR) and Granger Causality test were used. The results show thatlag 1 is the optimal lag hence bivariate VAR (1) model was used. GDP and FDI exhibits long-term equilibrium since the two-time series are cointegrated in long run. The causality test indicates that there exists a unilateral relationship between FDI and GDP, and FDI causes GDP growth and not vice versa. Understanding these causality links can help in future forecasting of Uganda's economic growth.



2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 01-16
Author(s):  
J.O. Sekunmade

This paper investigates Foreign Direct Investment, Economic Freedom and Economic Growth of Nigeria between 1995 and 2018. Specifically, the data on: Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows, Economic Freedom (Aggregate index) and the data on real gross domestic product (RGDP) were used during the analysis. Time-series data were tested for stationarity using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller Unit Root test method. Vector Autoregressive (VAR) estimation method was adopted to examine the effect of FDI, Economic Freedom on Economic growth. The interactive effect of FDI and Economic Freedom on Economic growth was determined using regression analysis while Granger Causality test method was adopted for determining the causality relationship among the variables. The result of the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) suggests that both FDI and Economic freedom do not have a significant effect on economic growth in Nigeria. The result of regression analysis shows that the joint coefficient of both FDI and EF is negative and not significant. The result of Granger Causality revealed that there is a uni-directional relationship between RGDP and FDI and between EF and FDI respectively. The research recommends that the federal government of Nigeria should adopt appropriate foreign trade strategies to enhance the impact of FDI on economic growth in Nigeria.



2021 ◽  
pp. 016001762097966
Author(s):  
Alfonso Mendoza-Velázquez ◽  
Alejandro Rondero-Garcia ◽  
Luis David Conde-Cortés

Employment growth is a desirable outcome of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and the economic performance of regions. However, the evidence available for Mexico is inconclusive. This study aims to contribute to the literature by assessing the dynamic relation between FDI and employment in the states of Mexico, and investigating the conditioning role of social progress, local public investment and competitiveness. We employ Impulse Response Functions and variance decomposition, derived from a Panel Vector Autoregressive (PVAR) model. The results provide evidence on the nexus between employment growth and the different types of FDI. We confirm the dynamic interrelation is, at best, weak.



2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 64
Author(s):  
Buthiena Kharabsheh ◽  
Ahlam Aldaher

This study examines the causal effect between foreign direct investment (FDI) and financial market development (FMD) in Jordan. Annual time-series data is used over the period 1978-2017. Principal component analysis is employed to create two indices to reflect FMD, namely stock market development (SMD) and banking sector development (BSD). To detect the causal effect between FDI and FMD, Vector Autoregressive Regressions, Granger Causality test and Johansen Co-integration test are employed in the analysis. In the short-run, the findings of Vector Autoregressive Regressions document a positive significant effect between SMD and FDI, however, no effect is found between BSD and FDI. The Granger Causality test shows unidirectional causality between SMD to FDI. Moreover, the Johansen Co-integration test reveals a long-run equilibrium relationship between FDI and FMD. These results are expected to have important implications for policy makers in Jordan.



2002 ◽  
Vol 05 (01) ◽  
pp. 53-69 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin Adam Abugri ◽  
Gökçe A. Soydemir

In this paper, we present empirical evidence linking the movements in the U.S. $/Yen exchange rate and the U.S. productivity figures to the U.S. outbound foreign direct investment (FDI) in Japan by constructing a five variable vector autoregressive (VAR) model. Our results show a lagged and statistically significant negative response of the U.S. FDI to a one standard deviation increase in the U.S. productivity figures. We further find that a once and for all appreciation in the U.S. dollar increases the U.S. FDI in Japan which is consistent with the earlier findings in the literature. The U.S. export figures, however, are found to serve as a complement to the U.S. outbound FDI whereas the impact of the U.S. imports from Japan on the U.S. outbound FDI is found to be negative. The results support the view that a productivity increase in the U.S. decreases the amount of the U.S. outbound foreign direct investment in the long run.



Author(s):  
Anna Kiziltan

This chapter examines the nexus between population aging, international trade, foreign direct investment, and economic growth in the G20 countries over 1994-2018 by using the panel vector autoregressive analysis approach. The G20 countries are considered locomotives of the world economy. Moreover, the G20 countries are also be regarded as the center of concentration of the interconnection of the above factors in connection with their economic significance and the population size. Thus, the analysis carried out within the framework of this chapter allows a better understanding the nature of the relationship between the examined variables. Moreover, using the impulse-response functions and the variance decomposition method, both the individual response of the variables to the shocks and the overall effect's magnitude are revealed.



2020 ◽  
Vol 80 ◽  
pp. 01002
Author(s):  
Pengfei Liu ◽  
Han-Sol Lee

This study examines the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on economic growth in China based on time series data for the period 1981-2018. For an empirical study, we used vector autoregressive (VAR) analysis. Before building our VAR model, we performed tests for unit root, normality, and heteroscedasticity to certify the data quality. The optimal lag 3 was selected using the Akaike information criterion (AIC), Schwartz (SC), and Hannan-Quinn (HQ) criteria. The Granger causality test is additionally performed. Based on the VAR model, we determined the impulse responses and variance decomposition of log FDI and log GDP in China. The results showed a positive and consistent impact of log FDI on China’s economic growth. The impact in the short-term is insignificant, as it is likely that there are multiple factors drive economic growth of China besides FDI inflows. However, the impact of FDI increases to a significant level in the long-term. Which indicates that FDI is one of the main factors to enhance Chinese economy. In conclusion, we suggest a policy implication how to sustain and promote the existing positive effects of FDI inflows on Chinese economy.



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