scholarly journals Predicting Inpatient Flow at a Major Hospital Using Interpretable Analytics

Author(s):  
Dimitris Bertsimas ◽  
Jean Pauphilet ◽  
Jennifer Stevens ◽  
Manu Tandon

Problem definition: Translate data from electronic health records (EHR) into accurate predictions on patient flows and inform daily decision making at a major hospital. Academic/practical relevance: In a constrained hospital environment, forecasts on patient demand patterns could help match capacity and demand and improve hospital operations. Methodology: We use data from 63,432 admissions at a large academic hospital (50% female, median age 64 years old, median length of stay 3.12 days). We construct an expertise-driven patient representation on top of their EHR data and apply a broad class of machine learning methods to predict several aspects of patient flows. Results: With a unique patient representation, we estimate short-term discharges, identify long-stay patients, predict discharge destination, and anticipate flows in and out of intensive care units with accuracy in the 80%+ range. More importantly, we implement this machine learning pipeline into the EHR system of the hospital and construct prediction-informed dashboards to support daily bed placement decisions. Managerial implications: Our study demonstrates that interpretable machine learning techniques combined with EHR data can be used to provide visibility on patient flows. Our approach provides an alternative to deep learning techniques that is equally accurate, interpretable, frugal in data and computational power, and production ready.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dimitris Bertsimas ◽  
Jean Pauphilet ◽  
Jennifer Stevens ◽  
Manu Tandon

Problem definition: Turn raw data from Electronic Health Records into accurate predictions on patient flows and inform daily decision-making at a major hospital. Practical Relevance: In a hospital environment under increasing financial and operational stress, forecasts on patient demand patterns could help match capacity and demand and improve hospital operations. Methodology: We use data from 63,432 admissions at a large academic hospital (50.0% female, median age 64 years old, median length-of-stay 3.12 days). We construct an expertise-driven patient representation on top of their EHR data and apply a broad class of machine learning methods to predict several aspects of patient flows. Results: With a unique patient representation, we estimate short-term discharges, identify long-stay patients, predict discharge destination and anticipate flows in and out of intensive care units with accuracy in the 80%+ range. More importantly, we implement this machine learning pipeline into the EHR system of the hospital and construct prediction-informed dashboards to support daily bed placement decisions. Managerial Implications: Our study demonstrates that interpretable machine learning techniques combined with EHR data can be used to provide visibility on patient flows. Our approach provides an alternative to deep learning techniques which is equally accurate, interpretable, frugal in data and computational power, and production-ready.


2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (4) ◽  
pp. 663-668
Author(s):  
Kausha I. Masani ◽  
Parita Oza ◽  
Smita Agrawal

Machine learning is one of the break-through technologies of the modern digital world. It's applications are found in various research domain such as medicine, image processing, production and manufacturing, aviation and autonomics and many more. To efficiently run a machine, it's maintenance and its monitoring automation system play a key role. The major problem we are targetting is to overcome the lack of an automation system which can give an accuracy rate of the production machine at a given instance of time. Also, the important energy meter parameters required to make power report in an automation system for addressing the production issues, at a given interval of time, were also not recorded. Thus in this paper, we describe how machine learning techniques are used for prediction of the accuracy of running production machine. To address these issues, we have used supervised machine learning technique of Binary decision tree using CART method and for power report, while the data is fetched using RS232 to RS485 convertor via Modbus communication protocol. Using CART we have predicted the machine accuracy at a given time with specific energy meter readings as its input features. This paper discusses the problem definition identified, data analysis of energy meter data and it's fetching and at the end ML techniques applied to predict the accuracy of running production machine. In the end, we prepare various power reports of the different machines from the fetched parameters as well as produce a graphical warning of deteriorating performance of the machine at a given instance of the time.


2006 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher Schreiner ◽  
Kari Torkkola ◽  
Mike Gardner ◽  
Keshu Zhang

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 84-99
Author(s):  
Li-Pang Chen

In this paper, we investigate analysis and prediction of the time-dependent data. We focus our attention on four different stocks are selected from Yahoo Finance historical database. To build up models and predict the future stock price, we consider three different machine learning techniques including Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) and Support Vector Regression (SVR). By treating close price, open price, daily low, daily high, adjusted close price, and volume of trades as predictors in machine learning methods, it can be shown that the prediction accuracy is improved.


Diabetes ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 69 (Supplement 1) ◽  
pp. 389-P
Author(s):  
SATORU KODAMA ◽  
MAYUKO H. YAMADA ◽  
YUTA YAGUCHI ◽  
MASARU KITAZAWA ◽  
MASANORI KANEKO ◽  
...  

Author(s):  
Anantvir Singh Romana

Accurate diagnostic detection of the disease in a patient is critical and may alter the subsequent treatment and increase the chances of survival rate. Machine learning techniques have been instrumental in disease detection and are currently being used in various classification problems due to their accurate prediction performance. Various techniques may provide different desired accuracies and it is therefore imperative to use the most suitable method which provides the best desired results. This research seeks to provide comparative analysis of Support Vector Machine, Naïve bayes, J48 Decision Tree and neural network classifiers breast cancer and diabetes datsets.


Author(s):  
Padmavathi .S ◽  
M. Chidambaram

Text classification has grown into more significant in managing and organizing the text data due to tremendous growth of online information. It does classification of documents in to fixed number of predefined categories. Rule based approach and Machine learning approach are the two ways of text classification. In rule based approach, classification of documents is done based on manually defined rules. In Machine learning based approach, classification rules or classifier are defined automatically using example documents. It has higher recall and quick process. This paper shows an investigation on text classification utilizing different machine learning techniques.


Author(s):  
Feidu Akmel ◽  
Ermiyas Birihanu ◽  
Bahir Siraj

Software systems are any software product or applications that support business domains such as Manufacturing,Aviation, Health care, insurance and so on.Software quality is a means of measuring how software is designed and how well the software conforms to that design. Some of the variables that we are looking for software quality are Correctness, Product quality, Scalability, Completeness and Absence of bugs, However the quality standard that was used from one organization is different from other for this reason it is better to apply the software metrics to measure the quality of software. Attributes that we gathered from source code through software metrics can be an input for software defect predictor. Software defect are an error that are introduced by software developer and stakeholders. Finally, in this study we discovered the application of machine learning on software defect that we gathered from the previous research works.


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