Abstract
The South Asian high (SAH) index was defined using the 200 hPa geopotential height for 1973–2019. Of movements of the SAH center in the north-south, east-west, northwest-southeast, and southwest-northeast directions, movement in the northwest-southeast direction showed the highest positive correlation with heat wave days (HWDs) in South Korea. Thirteen years with the highest SAH values (positive SAH years) and 13 years with the lowest SAH values (negative SAH years) were selected from a time series of SAH indices from which the linear trend was removed, and differences between these two groups were analyzed. An analysis of vertical meridional circulation averaged along 120°-130°E showed that in latitude zones containing Korea, anomalous downward flows with anomalous high pressures formed in the entire troposphere and coincided with positive air temperature and specific humidity. An analysis of stream flows and geopotential heights showed that in positive SAH years, anomalous anticyclones developed in Korea, the North Pacific, North America, western Europe, and the Iranian Plateau. These anticyclones had the wavenumber-5 pattern and showed more distinct barotropic vertical structures at higher altitudes, which resembled the circumglobal teleconnection (CGT) pattern. The maintenance of CGT depends on the interaction between CGT circulation and the Indian summer monsoon (ISM), which has a major influence on the mid-latitude atmosphere. Strengthening of the ISM results in the formation of upper-level anomalous anticyclones in the northwestern Iranian Plateau and creates continuous downstream cells along the waveguide due to Rossby wave dispersion. When diabetic heating by Indian summer monsoon precipitation is strengthened, the SAH is strengthened to the northwest of India, and a positive CGT pattern is formed. As a result, anomalous anticyclones were formed in all layers of the Korean troposphere resulting in heat waves, tropical nights, and droughts exacerbated in South Korea.
Probabilistic Heat Wave Forecast Based on a Large-Scale Circulation Pattern Using the TIGGE Data
