The Crusader Strategy

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steve Tibble
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Strategic Thinking ◽  
Primary Sources ◽  
Patterns Of Behavior ◽  
Strategic Goals ◽  
Crusader States ◽  
Develop Strategy ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Meaningful Sense

Medieval states, and particularly crusader societies, often have been considered brutish and culturally isolated. It seems unlikely that they could develop “strategy” in any meaningful sense. However, the crusaders were actually highly organized in their thinking and their decision making was rarely random. This book draws on a rich array of primary sources to reassess events on the ground and patterns of behavior over time. The book shows how, from aggressive castle building to implementing a series of invasions of Egypt, crusader leaders tenaciously pursued long-term plans and devoted single-minded attention to clear strategic goals. Crusader states were permanently on the brink of destruction; resources were scarce and the penalties for failure severe. Intuitive strategic thinking, the book argues, was a necessity, not a luxury.

scholarly journals Identification of skill in an online game: The case of Fantasy Premier League

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. e0246698
Author(s):  
Joseph D. O’Brien ◽  
James P. Gleeson ◽  
David J. P. O’Sullivan
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Online Game ◽  
Large Dataset ◽  
Good Decision ◽  
Premier League ◽  
Decision Points ◽  
Prime Factors ◽  
The Face ◽  
Over Time

In all competitions where results are based upon an individual’s performance the question of whether the outcome is a consequence of skill or luck arises. We explore this question through an analysis of a large dataset of approximately one million contestants playing Fantasy Premier League, an online fantasy sport where managers choose players from the English football (soccer) league. We show that managers’ ranks over multiple seasons are correlated and we analyse the actions taken by managers to increase their likelihood of success. The prime factors in determining a manager’s success are found to be long-term planning and consistently good decision-making in the face of the noisy contests upon which this game is based. Similarities between managers’ decisions over time that result in the emergence of ‘template’ teams, suggesting a form of herding dynamics taking place within the game, are also observed. Taken together, these findings indicate common strategic considerations and consensus among successful managers on crucial decision points over an extended temporal period.

Really Rewarding Rewards: Strategic Licensing in Long-Term Healthy Food Consumption

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rishika Rishika ◽  
Sven Feurer ◽  
Kelly L Haws
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Experimental Study ◽  
Consumption Patterns ◽  
Driving Mechanism ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Calorie Consumption ◽  
Food Purchases ◽  
Related Aspect ◽  
Over Time

Abstract Licensing is a well-documented form of justifying individual indulgent choices, but less is known about how licensing affects food decision-making patterns over time. Accordingly, we examine whether consumers incorporate licensing strategically and deliberately in their long-term consumption patterns and identify reward programs as a context in which strategic licensing is likely to occur. We propose that members with lower-calorie consumption patterns strategically indulge more on reward purchase occasions, and that forethought is required for such an effect to occur. A longitudinal study analyzing 272,677 real food purchases made by 7,828 consumers over a 14-month period provides striking evidence of our key proposition. An exploration of the inter-purchase time-related aspect of purchase acceleration suggests that forethought on behalf of consumers is necessary for strategic licensing to occur. A subsequent experimental study (N = 605) comprising five consecutive choice occasions provides additional evidence of forethought by demonstrating that strategic licensing occurs only when expected (but not windfall reward) occasions are involved, and by showing that anticipated negative affect for not indulging is the driving mechanism. We conclude with a discussion of the implications of our results for consumers, managers, and public policy makers.

scholarly journals Maximizing Tendencies in Marriage: Accentuating the Implications of Readily Observable Partner Characteristics for Intimates’ Satisfaction

2019 ◽  
Vol 45 (10) ◽  
pp. 1468-1481
Author(s):  
Juliana E. French ◽  
Andrea L. Meltzer
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Marital Satisfaction ◽  
Romantic Relationships ◽  
Physical Attractiveness ◽  
Romantic Partners ◽  
Relationship Outcomes ◽  
Partner Characteristics ◽  
Potential Alternative ◽  
Over Time

People differ in their tendencies to labor over decisions and to make choices that maximize their outcomes—a difference known as maximization. Here, we used two independent, 3-year longitudinal studies of newlywed couples to demonstrate that this individual difference in decision making has important implications for romantic relationships. Consistent with the idea that maximizers are more likely to compare their current romantic partners to potential alternative partners’ readily observable qualities, such as their physical attractiveness and status, results demonstrated that intimates’ maximization moderated the implications of these sex-differentiated variables for marital satisfaction. Specifically, maximizing men who had attractive (vs. unattractive) wives were more satisfied at the start of their marriages. Likewise, maximizing women who had high (vs. low) status husbands experienced less steep declines in satisfaction over time. These findings demonstrate that maximization has important implications for long-term romantic relationships by accentuating the effects of readily observable partner qualities on relationship outcomes.

Strategic Foresight Tools for Planning and Policy

2021 ◽  
pp. 775-797
Author(s):  
Barbara Jane Holland
Keyword(s):  
Artificial Intelligence ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Good Predictor ◽  
Cognitive Biases ◽  
Strategic Thinking ◽  
Policy And Strategy ◽  
Strategic Foresight ◽  
Structured Approach ◽  
Blind Spots

Today, companies can no longer assume that the past will be a good predictor of the future; Those that fail to prepare for radically new possibilities may face sudden irrelevance. Strategic Foresight, aka, Futures thinking, provides a structured approach enabling people and organizations to overcome cognitive biases and think more realistically about change. It helps to uncover blind spots, imagine radically different futures, and improve decision-making. Climate disruption, artificial intelligence, and automation are quickly transforming the landscape for business and sustainability. This chapter will review the Strategic Foresight tools used to embed long-term strategic thinking and planning concerning policy and strategy.

Integrierter Planungsansatz zur regionalen Standortplanung und -entwicklung/Integrated planning approach for regional site planning and development. Workshop-based validation

2020 ◽  
Vol 110 (04) ◽  
pp. 184-188
Author(s):  
Marilena Krause ◽  
David Kik ◽  
S. Thomas Spengler ◽  
Peter Nyhuis
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Site Management ◽  
Integrated Planning ◽  
Research Project ◽  
Planning Approach ◽  
Site Evaluation ◽  
New Challenges ◽  
Site Planning ◽  
Over Time

Die zunehmende Ansiedlung von Unternehmen in städtischen Ballungsräumen stellt die regionale Standortplanung vor neue Herausforderungen. Damit Unternehmen langfristig vorteilhafte Entscheidungen in der Standortplanung und -entwicklung treffen können, müssen sie verstärkt mit Kommunen kooperieren. Vor diesem Hintergrund wurde im DFG-Forschungsprojekt „MetroPlant“ ein integrierter Planungsansatz entwickelt, der Unternehmen bei der regionalen Standortbewertung und -entscheidung unterstützt. Berücksichtigt werden dabei unternehmensseitige und kommunale Maßnahmen zur Entwicklung von Standorten über die Zeit. Dieser Beitrag stellt wesentliche Erkenntnisse einer workshopbasierten Validierung des entwickelten Planungsansatzes vor.   Increasing numbers of companies settling in urban regions pose new challenges for regional site management. In order to make long-term beneficial decisions in site planning and development, enterprises must cooperate more closely with municipalities. In this context, an integrated planning approach was developed in the DFG research project „MetroPlant“ to support companies in their regional site evaluation and decision-making. Addressed are company and municipal measures for the development of sites over time. This paper presents essential findings of a workshop-based validation of the developed planning approach.

scholarly journals Behavior and Habitat Use Remain Diverse and Variable in Modern Zoological Exhibits over the Long-Term: Case Studies in 5 Species of Ursidae

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 677-703
Author(s):  
David M. Powell ◽  
Eli Baskir
Keyword(s):  
Habitat Use ◽  
Case Studies ◽  
Daily Variation ◽  
Behavioral Changes ◽  
Patterns Of Use ◽  
Zoo Animals ◽  
Patterns Of Behavior ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Zoological Exhibits

Long-term evaluations of whether modern zoological exhibits help to maintain variation in the behavior of zoo animals are lacking despite the hope that animals avoid falling into monotonous patterns of behavior or boredom. This study evaluated changes in behavior and habitat use over multi-year periods in nine individuals of five bear species at two zoological facilities. Behavioral data gathered over months to years were analyzed graphically for trends in the direction of change. The habitat use dynamics were assessed graphically by looking for trends in the entropy values over time. We found that the activity budgets remained diverse and were dynamic over time, more so in younger compared to older bears. Changes in behavior suggesting positive welfare were observed, while changes that may reflect declining welfare seemed more likely to be due to age or seasonality. The observed behavioral changes suggest that the bears did not become bored with their habitats; there was likely one to several hours of daily variation in behavior, and stereotypy was rare. The diversity in the habitat use decreased over time as the animals settled into patterns of use reflecting preferences for certain areas of their habitats.

scholarly journals Durability of environment-recruitment relationships in aquatic ecosystems: insights from long-term monitoring in a highly modified estuary and implications for management

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Natascia Tamburello ◽  
Brendan M. Connors ◽  
David Fullerton ◽  
Corey C. Phillis
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
San Francisco ◽  
Aquatic Ecosystems ◽  
Aquatic Organisms ◽  
Context Dependency ◽  
Conservation Actions ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Inform Decision Making ◽  
Over Time

AbstractThe environment can strongly influence the survival of aquatic organisms and their resulting dynamics. Our understanding of these relationships, typically based on correlations, underpins many contemporary resource management decisions and conservation actions. However, such relationships can break down over time as ecosystems evolve. Even when durable, they may not be very useful for management if they exhibit high variability, context dependency, or non-stationarity. Here, we systematically review the literature to identify trends across environment-recruitment relationships for aquatic taxa from California’s San Francisco Bay and Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta Estuary. This is one of the most heavily modified aquatic ecosystems in North America, and home to numerous species of concern whose relationships with the environment inform regulatory actions and constraints. We retested 23 of these relationships spanning 9 species using data that have accumulated in the years since they were first published (9-40 additional years) to determine whether they persisted. Most relationships were robust (i.e., same or stronger in magnitude) to the addition of new data, but the ability to predict how a species will respond to environmental change did not generally improve with more data. Instead, prediction error generally increased over time and in some cases very quickly, suggesting a rapid regime shift. Our results suggest that more data alone will not necessarily improve the ability of these relationships to inform decision making. We conclude by synthesizing emerging insights from the literature on best practices for the analysis, use, and refinement of environment-recruitment relationships to inform decision making in dynamic ecosystems.

scholarly journals Long term container volume forecasting: Decoupling gross domestic product and container movements

2012 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 217-229
Author(s):  
W.J. Pienaar ◽  
Jan Hendrik Havenga ◽  
Zane P. Simpson ◽  
J. van Eeden
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Freight Transport ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Investment Decision Making ◽  
Over Time

The correlation between container trade and economic growth is currently the most common relation used to forecast international trade container demand volumes. The article argues that there is a ceiling level in the propensity to containerise, as all the suitable volumes of the underlying commodities shift to containers over time. Also, the link between freight transport and gross domestic product (GDP) will decouple as more sustainable approaches to economic development and freight transport are necessitated by economic and environmental realities. A commodity-based model, that takes the underlying drivers of containerisation into account, is proposed as a more realistic forecast of container demand. Applying this model could materially influence large-scale investment decision making.

Capturing Learning over Time for Supporting Pedagogical Decision Making

2013 ◽  
pp. 264-293 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Reimann ◽  
Wilfrid Utz ◽  
Roland Unterberger ◽  
Wolfgang Halb
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Process Modeling ◽  
Learning Activities ◽  
Main Argument ◽  
Log Files ◽  
Temporal Features ◽  
Learning Research ◽  
Teaching Learning ◽  
Over Time

This chapter aims for a methodological contribution to online learning research and to the practical use of temporal information for pedagogical decision making. The authors address two interconnected concerns: how to describe the temporal features of teaching/learning activities and how to capture learning activities across learning applications and time. The main argument is that the analysis of temporal processes based on student data that can be automatically captured (in log files and through other means) will benefit from an explicit modeling of the teaching process, because in this way, some of the problems associated with a purely inductive approach to process and sequence mining can be overcome. In terms of advancing the state of the art, the authors suggest an approach that is grounded in meta-model architectures for process modeling and demonstrate its advantages with respect to tracking and monitoring students’ learning activities across learning applications. After providing some background on long-term learning, the chapter describes the conceptual as well as several of the implementation solutions developed in the EC-funded NEXT-TELL project.

scholarly journals Does Financial Integration Exist in ECOWAS?

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 14-27
Author(s):  
Matthew Oladapo Gidigbi ◽  
Benedict Akanegbu
Keyword(s):  
Financial Integration ◽  
Free Movement ◽  
Economic Community ◽  
Member States ◽  
Monetary Unification ◽  
Strategic Goals ◽  
Free Movement Of Goods ◽  
Free Movement Of Capital ◽  
Over Time

Free movement of goods, capital, and persons have been the long-term strategic goals of the Economic Community of West Africa States (ECOWAS) since its establishment. Notwithstanding, financial integration has become more important in deepening political integration in the region than ever. Assessing how far the Regional Economic Community (REC) has achieved her objective of free movement of capital among the member states. Therefore, this study investigated the existence of financial integration in ECOWAS by employing savings-investment equality, popularly known as Feldstein-Horioka Criterion; a panel data for all the 15 member states was fitted into the specified model. The study found that there is the existence of financial integration in the REC, and that language inhibits financial integration and that the coefficient of language dummy stands at -4.8 percent. However, it found that language inhibition of the financial integration in the REC will gradually disappear over time, as the interactive coefficient of language and time stands at -0.12 percent. This study concludes that a level of financial integration is in existence in the REC. Therefore, the REC is prepared for monetary unification assuming that there will be more substantial trade among the member states.

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