scholarly journals First Excursion Probability Estimation Method Using Average Response Spectrum.

1992 ◽  
Vol 58 (546) ◽  
pp. 347-351 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shigeru AOKI
2021 ◽  
pp. 1-24
Author(s):  
Ping Chi Yuen ◽  
Kenji Sasa ◽  
Hideo Kawahara ◽  
Chen Chen

Abstract Condensation inside marine containers occurs during voyages owing to weather changes. In this study, we define the condensation probability along one of the major routes for container ships between Asia and Europe. First, the inside and outside air conditions were measured on land in Japan, and a correlation analysis was conducted to derive their relationship. Second, onboard measurements were conducted for 20,000 twenty-foot equivalent unit (TEU) ships to determine the variation in outside air conditions. Complicated patterns of weather change were observed with changes in latitude, sea area, and season. Third, condensation probability was estimated based on a multi-regression analysis with land and onboard measured data. The maximum condensation probability in westbound or eastbound voyages in winter was found to be approximately 50%. The condensation probability estimation method established in this study can contribute to the quantification of cargo damage risks for the planning of marine container transportation voyages.


2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Yafei Song ◽  
Xiaodan Wang

Intuitionistic fuzzy (IF) evidence theory, as an extension of Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence to the intuitionistic fuzzy environment, is exploited to process imprecise and vague information. Since its inception, much interest has been concentrated on IF evidence theory. Many works on the belief functions in IF information systems have appeared. Although belief functions on the IF sets can deal with uncertainty and vagueness well, it is not convenient for decision making. This paper addresses the issue of probability estimation in the framework of IF evidence theory with the hope of making rational decision. Background knowledge about evidence theory, fuzzy set, and IF set is firstly reviewed, followed by introduction of IF evidence theory. Axiomatic properties of probability distribution are then proposed to assist our interpretation. Finally, probability estimations based on fuzzy and IF belief functions together with their proofs are presented. It is verified that the probability estimation method based on IF belief functions is also potentially applicable to classical evidence theory and fuzzy evidence theory. Moreover, IF belief functions can be combined in a convenient way once they are transformed to interval-valued possibilities.


Author(s):  
Shigeru Aoki

The secondary system such as pipings, tanks and other mechanical equipment are installed in the primary system such as building. The important secondary systems should be designed to maintain their function even if they are subjected to destructive earthquake excitations. First excursion failure is one of the most important failure modes. The secondary system has many nonlinear characteristics. In this paper, an estimation methods of the first excursion probability of the secondary system with gap and friction subjected to earthquake excitation is proposed. Restoring force with gap and friction force is equivalently linearized. When the tolerance level is normalized by the maximum response of the secondary system without gap and friction characteristics, variation of the first excursion probability is very small for various values of mass ratio of the secondary system to the primary system, the damping ratio and the natural period.


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