Stability of the Exchange–Rate Agreements and Public Debt Management: the Italian Experience within the EMS

2002 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 53-73
Author(s):  
Bernardo Maggi

Abstract This paper analyses the issue of the interdependence between fundamentals and expectations in the emergence of a currency crisis from both a theoretical and an empirical point of view with specific reference to the Italian case.Theoretically, currency crises depend as much on fundamentals as on expectations, and the latter again on the critical condition of the former for the associated profit opportunity. Hence, in order to reduce the risk of a new speculative attack, an appropriate public debt management, which for its high level is the main fundamental in Italy, and fiscal policy must be adopted. These may be implemented with the evaluation of the probability associated to devaluation, which enables the policy-maker to identify the critical condition for die occurrence of the crisis. The empirical analysis also provides evidence in favour of the theory that points public budget government policy as one of the major factors in leading to a non-viable fixed exchange rate regime.

2007 ◽  
Vol 10 (05) ◽  
pp. 763-770
Author(s):  
SILVIA CECCACCI ◽  
ALESSANDRO MARCHESIANI ◽  
LORENZO PECCHI

Foreign-currency denominated securities are introduced in a stochastic model à la Missale [13]. It is shown that the percentage share of this bond type, as compared to total debt, is an increasing function of the covariance between the output and the rate of depreciation, but it may or may not be a decreasing function of the volatility of the rate of depreciation.


2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (5) ◽  
pp. 27-31
Author(s):  
I. V. SUGAROVA ◽  
◽  
N. V. TADTAEVA ◽  

In the modern world economy, most countries lack the financial resources to fully perform their duties and functions to their citizens. The consequence of the increase in borrowing by countries is the growth of public debt. Its management is becoming one of the most acute problems in the current conditions. The article presents the main aspects of this problem, and suggests measures to stimulate the country's economic growth.


2006 ◽  
Vol 53 (3) ◽  
pp. 313-334 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emilija Beker

The choice of an adequate exchange rate regime proves to be a highly sensitive field within which the economic authorities present and confirm themselves. The advantages and disadvantages of fixed and flexible exchange rate regimes, which have been quite relativized from the conventional point of view, together with simultaneous, but not synchronized effects of structural and external factors, remain permanently questioned throughout a complex process of exchange rate regime decision making. The paper reflects the attempt of critical identification of the key exchange rate performances with emphasis on continuous non-uniformity and (un)certainty of shelf life of a relevant choice.


2018 ◽  
Vol 80 (1) ◽  
pp. 30-39 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. H. Bondaruk ◽  
O. S. Bondaruk ◽  
N. Yu. Melnychuk

the public debt is deepened, the visions of the public debt as a phenomenon burdening the national economy, found in various schools of economics, are reviewed. It is demonstrated that the high internal and external dept in parallel with the respectively growing expenditure for its service is a pressing problem for Ukraine, calling for an urgent solution. This raises the need for seeking ways to improve the public debt management mechanisms. The article’s objective is to deepen the theoretical and methodological framework for assessment of the public debt in Ukraine and the budget expenditures for its service. It is demonstrated that the public debt in Ukraine results from the public budget deficit, high sovereign borrowing from internal and external sources. The econometric assessment of the time series on budget expenditures for debt service and repayment in Ukraine is given. The analysis of the public debt dynamics in Ukraine shows that not only the increasing volume of public debt and State-guarantee debt, but also the increasing budget expenditures on its service and repayment are dangerous. The high deficit of public budget is persisting, which growth is caused, inter alia, by the payment commitments. The expenditures on service and repayment of public debt constitute a large share in the public budget expenditures. Forecasting calculations made in the article demonstrate the upward tendency in the public budget expenditures on repayment and service of the public debt of Ukraine, thus signaling the growing threats to the budget security of Ukraine. The main factors for the rapidly increased debt burden in Ukraine over the latest years are identified: the considerable devaluation of domestic currency (Hryvnya), sharp drop in GDP, the shrinking internal consumer demand, etc.    It is demonstrated that the risk of the increasing payments for service of public debt is an essential and chronic factor generating problems in public finances and affecting the budget security of Ukraine.  


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