Bayesian Modeling of Prion Disease Dynamics in Mule Deer Using Population Monitoring and Capture-Recapture Data

ABSTRACT Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is an emerging and fatal contagious prion disease that affects cervids, including mule deer, white-tailed deer, black-tailed deer, red deer reindeer, elk, and moose. CWD prions are widely distributed throughout the bodies of CWD-infected animals and are found in the nervous system, lymphoid tissues, muscle, blood, urine, feces, and antler velvet. The mechanism of CWD transmission in natural settings is unknown. Potential mechanisms of transmission include horizontal, maternal, or environmental routes. Due to the presence of prions in the blood of CWD-infected animals, the potential exists for invertebrates that feed on mammalian blood to contribute to the transmission of CWD. The geographic range of the Rocky Mountain Wood tick, Dermancentor andersoni, overlaps with CWD throughout the northwest United States and southwest Canada, raising the possibility that D. andersoni parasitization of cervids may be involved in CWD transmission. We investigated this possibility by examining the blood meal of D. andersoni that fed upon prion-infected hamsters for the presence of prion infectivity by animal bioassay. None of the hamsters inoculated with a D. andersoni blood meal that had been ingested from prion-infected hamsters developed clinical signs of prion disease or had evidence for a subclinical prion infection. Overall, the data do not demonstrate a role for D. andersoni in the transmission of prion disease. IMPORTANCE Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is an emerging prion disease that affects cervids, including mule deer, white-tailed deer, black-tailed deer, red deer reindeer, elk, and moose. The mechanism of CWD transmission in unknown. Due to the presence of prions in the blood of CWD-infected animals, it is possible for invertebrates that feed on cervid blood to contribute to the transmission of CWD. We examined the blood meal of D. andersoni, a tick with a similar geographic range as cervids, that fed upon prion-infected hamsters for the presence of prion infectivity by animal bioassay. None of the D. andersoni blood meals that had been ingested from prion-infected hamsters yielded evidence of prion infection. Overall, the data do not support a role of D. andersoni in the transmission of prion disease.

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THE ROLE OF PREDATION IN DISEASE CONTROL: A COMPARISON OF SELECTIVE AND NONSELECTIVE REMOVAL ON PRION DISEASE DYNAMICS IN DEER

Journal of Wildlife Diseases ◽

10.7589/0090-3558-47.1.78 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 47 (1) ◽

pp. 78-93 ◽

Cited By ~ 32

Author(s):

Margaret A. Wild ◽

N. Thompson Hobbs ◽

Mark S. Graham ◽

Michael W. Miller

Keyword(s):

Disease Control ◽

Prion Disease ◽

Disease Dynamics

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Estimating Abundance of Desert Mule Deer Using Fecal DNA–Based Capture-Recapture

Western North American Naturalist ◽

10.3398/064.081.0104 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 81 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Stephen S. Pfeiler ◽

Mary M. Conner ◽

Jane S. McKeever ◽

Rachel S. Crowhurst ◽

Clinton W. Epps ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Mule Deer ◽

Fecal Dna ◽

Capture Recapture

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Estimation of wolf population density using spatial capture-recapture: refining methods for monitoring cryptic species

10.7287/peerj.preprints.1946 ◽

2016 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Gretchen H Roffler ◽

Jason N Waite ◽

Rodney W Flynn ◽

Kristian R Larson

Keyword(s):

Traditional Approach ◽

Cost Effective ◽

Population Monitoring ◽

Population Abundance ◽

Wolf Population ◽

Southeast Alaska ◽

Capture Recapture ◽

Odocoileus Hemionus Sitkensis ◽

Fragmented Forests ◽

Hair Snares

Wolves (Canis lupus) in Southeast Alaska have been proposed for listing under the U.S. Endangered Species Act first in 1993, and more recently in 2011. Reports of declining wolf populations sparked concern, in addition to high rates of logging and broad-scale succession patterns predicted to negatively impact Sitka black-tailed deer (Odocoileus hemionus sitkensis), the primary ungulate prey species of wolves in Southeast Alaska. Given the recurring interest of wolf viability in the region, and in order to manage wolves and their prey sustainably, it is imperative to obtain regular and reliable population estimates. However, monitoring wolves in temperate rainforests is challenging because the landscape obscures visibility and lowers success of traditional methods such as aerial surveys and radio collar mark-recapture. We used hair snares to collect DNA samples and spatially-explicit capture-recapture (SECR) models to estimate fall wolf density during 2012–2015 on northcentral Prince of Wales Island (POW), Alaska. We incorporated covariates including sex, behavioral responses, and site-specific changes in effectiveness of detection probability by fitting hybrid mixture models to the data. We also incorporated into our models landscape variables including forest habitats in various management conditions and succession stages to relate to wolf habitat selection. We concurrently implemented a traditional approach for comparison to the DNA-based SECR method using radiocollared wolf data to estimate population abundance with minimum counts and the size of wolf packs and pack territories. The results of the DNA-based SECR method proved to be more reliable, efficient, cost-effective, and robust than the traditional method, which was sensitive to violations of model assumptions. Our efforts to improve SECR density estimate precision by increasing the hair sampling intensity and area resulted in more wolf hair detections and redetections, and increased the number of unique wolves redetected. Based on multiple lines of evidence, we report a decline in wolf population abundance over the past 2 decades in northcentral POW. We conclude that DNA-based SECR is an effective tool for regular population monitoring, as is required in situations of elevated concern for the persistence of a population, and may simultaneously provide information on heterogeneous landscape use, an important wildlife management consideration in fragmented forests.

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Noninvasive genetic surveys before and after a megafire detect displacement of migratory mule deer

10.1101/2021.05.21.445205 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Jennifer L Brazeal ◽

Rahel Sollmann ◽

Benjamin N Sacks

Keyword(s):

Fire Suppression ◽

Mule Deer ◽

Burned Area ◽

Winter Range ◽

High Severity ◽

Western Us ◽

Before And After ◽

Summer Range ◽

Capture Recapture ◽

Carry Over

Due to climate change and past logging and fire suppression, the western US are experiencing increasingly large and frequent wildfires. Understanding how wildlife respond to these mega-fires is becoming increasingly relevant to protect and manage these populations. However, the lack of predictability inherent in such events makes studies difficult to plan. We took advantage of a large high-severity wildfire that burned adjacent to an ongoing study of mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) on their summer range upslope of the fire to investigate their displacement onto our study area both immediately and upon their return to summer range the following year. We used spatial capture-recapture models in conjunction with noninvasive fecal DNA sampling to estimate density and non-spatial Pradel robust-design models to estimate apparent survival and recruitment rates. Compared to density before the fire, we observed an increase in deer density and an increase in per-capita recruitment rates one month after the fire. These findings suggest that the immediate response of at least some deer was to flee the fire upslope onto the study area rather than to downslope toward their winter range. These changes did not carry over into the following year, however, suggesting that deer formerly using the burned area as summer range may have returned there despite the high severity of the fire, or may have chosen new areas for their summer range. This suggests that, at least in the short term, the fire did not negatively affect the deer population.

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Transmission of Elk and Deer Prions to Transgenic Mice

Journal of Virology ◽

10.1128/jvi.00098-06 ◽

2006 ◽

Vol 80 (18) ◽

pp. 9104-9114 ◽

Cited By ~ 126

Author(s):

Gültekin Tamgüney ◽

Kurt Giles ◽

Essia Bouzamondo-Bernstein ◽

Patrick J. Bosque ◽

Michael W. Miller ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Prion Disease ◽

Cervus Elaphus ◽

Prion Diseases ◽

Mule Deer ◽

Transmitted Disease ◽

Wild Type Mouse ◽

Rocky Mountain ◽

Odocoileus Hemionus ◽

Cervus Elaphus Nelsoni ◽

Free Ranging

ABSTRACT Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a fatal prion disease in deer and elk. Unique among the prion diseases, it is transmitted among captive and free-ranging animals. To facilitate studies of the biology of CWD prions, we generated five lines of transgenic (Tg) mice expressing prion protein (PrP) from Rocky Mountain elk (Cervus elaphus nelsoni), denoted Tg(ElkPrP), and two lines of Tg mice expressing PrP common to white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) and mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus), denoted Tg(DePrP). None of the Tg(ElkPrP) or Tg(DePrP) mice exhibited spontaneous neurologic dysfunction at more than 600 days of age. Brain samples from CWD-positive elk, white-tailed deer, and mule deer produced disease in Tg(ElkPrP) mice between 180 and 200 days after inoculation and in Tg(DePrP) mice between 300 and 400 days. One of eight cervid brain inocula transmitted disease to Tg(MoPrP)4053 mice overexpressing wild-type mouse PrP-A in ∼540 days. Neuropathologic analysis revealed abundant PrP amyloid plaques in the brains of ill mice. Brain homogenates from symptomatic Tg(ElkPrP) mice produced disease in 120 to 190 days in Tg(ElkPrP) mice. In contrast to the Tg(ElkPrP) and Tg(DePrP) mice, Tg mice overexpressing human, bovine, or ovine PrP did not develop prion disease after inoculation with CWD prions from among nine different isolates after >500 days. These findings suggest that CWD prions from elk, mule deer, and white-tailed deer can be readily transmitted among these three cervid species.

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Next‐generation serology: integrating cross‐sectional and capture–recapture approaches to infer disease dynamics

Ecology ◽

10.1002/ecy.2923 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 101 (2) ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Amandine Gamble ◽

Romain Garnier ◽

Thierry Chambert ◽

Olivier Gimenez ◽

Thierry Boulinier

Keyword(s):

Disease Dynamics ◽

Next Generation ◽

Cross Sectional ◽

Capture Recapture

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Leopard Panthera pardus fusca Density in the Seasonally Dry, Subtropical Forest in the Bhabhar of Terai Arc, Nepal

Advances in Ecology ◽

10.1155/2014/286949 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 2014 ◽

pp. 1-12 ◽

Cited By ~ 16

Author(s):

Kanchan Thapa ◽

Rinjan Shrestha ◽

Jhamak Karki ◽

Gokarna Jung Thapa ◽

Naresh Subedi ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Winter Season ◽

Population Monitoring ◽

Panthera Pardus ◽

Density Estimates ◽

Seasonally Dry ◽

Abundance Estimates ◽

Capture Recapture ◽

Modelling Techniques ◽

Wildlife Reserve

We estimated leopard (Panthera pardus fusca) abundance and density in the Bhabhar physiographic region in Parsa Wildlife Reserve, Nepal. The camera trap grid, covering sampling area of 289 km2 with 88 locations, accumulated 1,342 trap nights in 64 days in the winter season of 2008-2009 and photographed 19 individual leopards. Using models incorporating heterogeneity, we estimated 28 (±SE 6.07) and 29.58 (±SE 10.44) leopards in Programs CAPTURE and MARK. Density estimates via 1/2 MMDM methods were 5.61 (±SE 1.30) and 5.93 (±SE 2.15) leopards per 100 km2 using abundance estimates from CAPTURE and MARK, respectively. Spatially explicit capture recapture (SECR) models resulted in lower density estimates, 3.78 (±SE 0.85) and 3.48 (±SE 0.83) leopards per 100 km2, in likelihood based program DENSITY and Bayesian based program SPACECAP, respectively. The 1/2 MMDM methods have been known to provide much higher density estimates than SECR modelling techniques. However, our SECR models resulted in high leopard density comparable to areas considered better habitat in Nepal indicating a potentially dense population compared to other sites. We provide the first density estimates for leopards in the Bhabhar and a baseline for long term population monitoring of leopards in Parsa Wildlife Reserve and across the Terai Arc.

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Integrating spatial capture-recapture models with variable individual identifiability

10.1101/2020.03.27.010850 ◽

2020 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Joel S. Ruprecht ◽

Charlotte E. Eriksson ◽

Tavis D. Forrester ◽

Darren A. Clark ◽

Michael J. Wisdom ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Puma Concolor ◽

Individual Recognition ◽

Population Monitoring ◽

Lynx Rufus ◽

Individual Identification ◽

Telemetry Data ◽

Density Estimates ◽

Gps Collars ◽

Remote Cameras ◽

Capture Recapture

AbstractMany applications in ecology depend on unbiased and precise estimates of animal population density. Spatial capture recapture models and their variants have become the preferred tool for estimating densities of carnivores. Within the spatial capture-recapture family are variants that require individual identification of all encounters (spatial capture-recapture), individual identification of a subset of a population (spatial mark-resight), or no individual identification (spatial count). In addition, these models can incorporate telemetry data (all models) and the marking process (spatial mark-resight). However, the consistency of results among methods and the relative precision of estimates in a real-world setting are unknown. Consequently, it is unclear how much and what type of data are needed to achieve satisfactory density estimates. We tested a suite of models to estimate population densities of black bears (Ursus americanus), bobcats (Lynx rufus), cougars (Puma concolor), and coyotes (Canis latrans). For each species we genotyped fecal DNA collected with detection dogs. A subset of individuals from each species were affixed with GPS collars bearing unique markings to be resighted by remote cameras set on a 1 km grid. We fit 10 models for each species ranging from those requiring no animals to be individually recognizable to others that necessitate full individual recognition. We then assessed the contribution of incorporating telemetry data to each model and the marking process to the mark-resight model. Finally, we developed an integrated hybrid model that combines camera, physical capture, genetic, and GPS data into a single hierarchical model. Importantly, we find that spatial count models that do not individually identify animals fail in all cases whether or not telemetry data are included. Results improved as models contained more information on individual identity. Models where a subset of individuals were identifiable yielded qualitatively similar results, but can produce quantitatively divergent estimates, suggesting that long-term population monitoring should use a consistent method across years. Incorporation of telemetry data and the marking process can produce more accurate and precise density estimates. Our results can be used to guide future study designs to efficiently estimate carnivore densities for better understanding of population dynamics, predator-prey relationships, and community assemblages.

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Newcastle disease virus transmission dynamics in wild peridomestic birds in the United Arab Emirates

Scientific Reports ◽

10.1038/s41598-020-79184-3 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Julien Hirschinger ◽

Lucile Marescot ◽

Yves Hingrat ◽

Jean Luc Guerin ◽

Guillaume Le Loc’h ◽

...

Keyword(s):

United Arab Emirates ◽

Newcastle Disease ◽

Wild Bird ◽

Serological Test ◽

Infection Status ◽

Disease Dynamics ◽

Bird Populations ◽

Capture Recapture ◽

Event Capture ◽

Epidemiological Parameters

AbstractTo understand the dynamics of a pathogen in an animal population, one must assess how the infection status of individuals changes over time. With wild animals, this can be very challenging because individuals can be difficult to trap and sample, even more so since they are tested with imperfect diagnostic techniques. Multi-event capture-recapture models allow analysing longitudinal capture data of individuals whose infection status is assessed using imperfect tests. In this study, we used a two-year dataset from a longitudinal field study of peridomestic wild bird populations in the United Arab Emirates during which thousands of birds from various species were captured, sampled and tested for Newcastle disease virus exposure using a serological test. We developed a multi-event capture-recapture model to estimate important demographic and epidemiological parameters of the disease. The modelling outputs provided important insights into the understanding of Newcastle disease dynamics in peridomestics birds, which varies according to ecological and epidemiological parameters, and useful information in terms of surveillance strategies. To our knowledge, this study is the first attempt to model the dynamics of Newcastle disease in wild bird populations by combining longitudinal capture data and serological test results. Overall, it showcased that multi-event capture-recapture models represent a suitable method to analyse imperfect capture data and make reliable inferences on infectious disease dynamics in wild populations.

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