scholarly journals Social, economic, and environmental factors influencing the basic reproduction number of COVID-19 across countries

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (6) ◽  
pp. e0252373
Author(s):  
Jude Dzevela Kong ◽  
Edward W. Tekwa ◽  
Sarah A. Gignoux-Wolfsohn
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Environmental Factors ◽  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Media Use ◽  
National Level ◽  
Logistic Growth ◽  
Social Media Use ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Strong Relationships

Objective To assess whether the basic reproduction number (R0) of COVID-19 is different across countries and what national-level demographic, social, and environmental factors other than interventions characterize initial vulnerability to the virus. Methods We fit logistic growth curves to reported daily case numbers, up to the first epidemic peak, for 58 countries for which 16 explanatory covariates are available. This fitting has been shown to robustly estimate R0 from the specified period. We then use a generalized additive model (GAM) to discern both linear and nonlinear effects, and include 5 random effect covariates to account for potential differences in testing and reporting that can bias the estimated R0. Findings We found that the mean R0 is 1.70 (S.D. 0.57), with a range between 1.10 (Ghana) and 3.52 (South Korea). We identified four factors—population between 20–34 years old (youth), population residing in urban agglomerates over 1 million (city), social media use to organize offline action (social media), and GINI income inequality—as having strong relationships with R0, across countries. An intermediate level of youth and GINI inequality are associated with high R0, (n-shape relationships), while high city population and high social media use are associated with high R0. Pollution, temperature, and humidity did not have strong relationships with R0 but were positive. Conclusion Countries have different characteristics that predispose them to greater intrinsic vulnerability to COVID-19. Studies that aim to measure the effectiveness of interventions across locations should account for these baseline differences in social and demographic characteristics.

scholarly journals Social, economic, and environmental factors influencing the basic reproduction number of COVID-19 across countries

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jude D. Kong ◽  
Edward W. Tekwa ◽  
Sarah A. Gignoux-Wolfsohn
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Environmental Factors ◽  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Media Use ◽  
National Level ◽  
Logistic Growth ◽  
Social Media Use ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Strong Relationships

AbstractObjectiveTo assess whether the basic reproduction number (R0) of COVID-19 is different across countries and what national-level demographic, social, and environmental factors characterize initial vulnerability to the virus.MethodsWe fit logistic growth curves to reported daily case numbers, up to the first epidemic peak. This fitting estimates R0. We then use a generalized additive model to discern the effects, and include 5 random effect covariates to account for potential differences in testing and reporting that can bias the estimated R0.FindingsWe found that the mean R0 is 1.70 (S.D. 0.57), with a range between 1.10 (Ghana) and 3.52 (South Korea). We identified four factors-population between 20-34 years old (youth), population residing in urban agglomerates over 1 million (city), social media use to organize offline action (social media), and GINI income inequality-as having strong relationships with R0. An intermediate level of youth and GINI inequality are associated with high R0, while high city population and high social media use are associated with high R0. Environmental and climate factors were not found to have strong relationships with R0.ConclusionStudies that aim to measure the effectiveness of interventions should account for the intrinsic differences between populations.

scholarly journals Threshold Dynamics of a Huanglongbing Model with Logistic Growth in Periodic Environments

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jianping Wang ◽  
Shujing Gao ◽  
Yueli Luo ◽  
Dehui Xie
Keyword(s):  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Logistic Growth ◽  
Threshold Dynamics ◽  
Global Dynamics ◽  
Globally Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Linear Integral ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Disease Free ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

We analyze the impact of seasonal activity of psyllid on the dynamics of Huanglongbing (HLB) infection. A new model about HLB transmission with Logistic growth in psyllid insect vectors and periodic coefficients has been investigated. It is shown that the global dynamics are determined by the basic reproduction numberR0which is defined through the spectral radius of a linear integral operator. IfR0< 1, then the disease-free periodic solution is globally asymptotically stable and ifR0> 1, then the disease persists. Numerical values of parameters of the model are evaluated taken from the literatures. Furthermore, numerical simulations support our analytical conclusions and the sensitive analysis on the basic reproduction number to the changes of average and amplitude values of the recruitment function of citrus are shown. Finally, some useful comments on controlling the transmission of HLB are given.

scholarly journals Networked Scholarship and Motivations for Social Media use in Scholarly Communication

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefania Manca ◽  
Maria Ranieri
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Media Use ◽  
National Level ◽  
Scholarly Communication ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Social Media Use ◽  
Perceptions And Attitudes ◽  
Frequency Of Use ◽  
Disciplinary Field ◽  
Use Of Social Media

<p class="3">Research on scholars’ use of social media suggests that these sites are increasingly being used to enhance scholarly communication by strengthening relationships, facilitating collaboration among peers, publishing and sharing research products, and discussing research topics in open and public formats. However, very few studies have investigated perceptions and attitudes towards social media use for scholarly communication of large cohorts of scholars at national level. This study investigates the reasons for using social media sites for scholarly communication among a large sample of Italian university scholars (N=6139) with the aim of analysing what factors mainly affect these attitudes. The motivations for using social media were analysed in connection with frequency of use and factors like gender, age, years of teaching, academic title, and disciplinary field. The results point out that for the most used tools the influence of the variables examined was higher in shaping scholars’ motivations. In fact, frequency of use, age, years of teaching, and disciplinary field were found to be relevant factors especially for LinkedIn and ResearchGate-Academia.edu, while gender and academic title seemed to have a limited impact on scholars’ motivations for all social media sites considered in the study. Considerations for future research are provided along with limitations of the study.</p>

scholarly journals Local Dynamics of an SVIR Epidemic Model with Logistic Growth

CAUCHY ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 122-132
Author(s):  
Joko Harianto ◽  
Inda Puspita Sari
Keyword(s):  
Stability Analysis ◽  
Equilibrium Point ◽  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Local Stability ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Endemic Equilibrium ◽  
Logistic Growth ◽  
Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Local Stability Analysis ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

Discussion of local stability analysis of SVIR models in this article is included in the scope of applied mathematics. The purpose of this discussion was to provide results of local stability analysis that had not been discussed in some articles related to the SVIR model. The SVIR models discussed in this article involve logistics growth in the vaccinated compartment. The results obtained, i.e. if the basic reproduction number less than one and m is positive, then there is one equilibrium point i.e. E0 is locally asymptotically stable. In the field of epidemiology, this means that the disease will disappear from the population. However, if the basic reproduction number more than one and b1 more than b, then there are two equilibrium points i.e. disease-free equilibrium point denoted by E0 and the endemic equilibrium point denoted by E1*. In this case the endemic equilibrium point E1* is locally asymptotically stable. In the field of epidemiology, this means that the disease will remain in the population. The numerical simulation supports these results.

ANALYSIS OF AN AGE-STRUCTURED HIV-1 INFECTION MODEL WITH LOGISTIC TARGET CELL GROWTH

2020 ◽  
Vol 28 (04) ◽  
pp. 927-944
Author(s):  
HUIJUAN LIU ◽  
FEI XU ◽  
JIA-FANG ZHANG
Keyword(s):  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Logistic Growth ◽  
Infection Model ◽  
Target Cells ◽  
Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Globally Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Age Structured ◽  
Hiv 1 ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

In this work, we construct an age-structured HIV-1 infection model to investigate the interplay between [Formula: see text] cells and viruses. In our model, we assume that the variations in the death rate of productively infected [Formula: see text] cells and the production rate of virus in infected cells are all age-dependent, and the target cells follow logistic growth. We perform mathematical analysis and prove the persistence of the semi-flow of the system. We calculate the basic reproduction number and prove the local and global stability of the steady states. We show that if the basic reproduction number is less than one, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable, and if the basic reproduction number is greater than one, the infected steady state is locally asymptotically stable.

scholarly journals Stability Analysis of SEIL Tuberculosis Epidemic Model with Logistic Growth in Susceptible Compartment

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 ◽  
pp. 1-9
Author(s):  
Joko Harianto
Keyword(s):  
Equilibrium Point ◽  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Equilibrium Points ◽  
Endemic Equilibrium ◽  
Logistic Growth ◽  
Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Tuberculosis Disease ◽  
Disease Free ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

This article discusses modifications to the SEIL model that involve logistical growth. This model is used to describe the dynamics of the spread of tuberculosis disease in the population. The existence of the model's equilibrium points and its local stability depends on the basic reproduction number. If the basic reproduction number is less than unity, then there is one equilibrium point that is locally asymptotically stable. The equilibrium point is a disease-free equilibrium point. If the basic reproduction number ranges from one to three, then there are two equilibrium points. The two equilibrium points are disease-free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium points. Furthermore, for this case, the endemic equilibrium point is locally asymptotically stable.

scholarly journals The Urgency of Indonesia Social Media Regulation in the Vortex of Terrorism

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 20-30
Author(s):  
FX Andy Sutrisno
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Media Use ◽  
National Level ◽  
Parental Supervision ◽  
International Level ◽  
Social Media Use ◽  
Media Regulation ◽  
The Social ◽  
Use Of Social Media

Social media becomes a very important and strategic tool for terrorists to do propaganda, recruitment, funding, and facilitation of other terrorist activities. Both international level and national level, no regulation explicitly regulates the use of social media for terrorism. Since many incidents of terrorism using social media in Indonesia, the more vigorous terrorists’ propaganda and recruitment through social media, and considering opened terrorist access to pursue their targets, especially the youth generation, it is vital to specifically regulate social media and terrorism. Although social media and terrorism issues need to be addressed by the increasing of local government’s role in combating terrorism and the strengthening parental supervision in the use of social media by children, the need for social media and terrorism regulation is an urgent matter to do first, as a guide to tackling the social media use in the vortex of terrorism.

The Role of Social Media in the Diffusion of E-Government and E-Commerce

2021 ◽  
Vol 34 (2) ◽  
pp. 63-79
Author(s):  
Ibrahim Osman Adam ◽  
Muftawu Dzang Alhassan
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Structural Equation ◽  
Media Use ◽  
National Level ◽  
Regulatory Environment ◽  
Social Media Use ◽  
Mediating Role ◽  
Equation Modelling ◽  
Using Data

This study attempts to empirically examine the role of social media use on the diffusion of e-government and e-commerce. This study departs from previous studies that have investigated social media effects on e-government and e-commerce as silo phenomena without examining the mediating role of other national-level factors. Using data drawn from archival sources for 135 countries for 2016, the study, through a model built on the technology-organization-environment framework, examines the mediating role of other national-level factors by employing partial least squares structural equation modelling. The findings provide evidence that social media use significantly influences the development of e-government and the diffusion of e-commerce globally. However, the mediating role of the political and regulatory environment was found not to be influential. Some implications of the study for research and practice are provided.

scholarly journals A Logistic Curve in the SIR Model and Its Application to Deaths by COVID-19 in Japan

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Takesi Saito ◽  
Kazuyasu Shigemoto
Keyword(s):  
Growth Curve ◽  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Approximate Solutions ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Logistic Growth ◽  
Exact Results ◽  
Logistic Curve ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

AbstractApproximate solutions of SIR equations are given, based on a logistic growth curve in the Biology. These solutions are applied to fix the basic reproduction number α and the removed ratio c, especially from data of accumulated number of deaths in Japan COVID-19. We then discuss the end of the epidemic. These logistic curve results are compared with the exact results of the SIR model.

scholarly journals Positive Periodic Solutions of an Epidemic Model with Seasonality

2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gui-Quan Sun ◽  
Zhenguo Bai ◽  
Zi-Ke Zhang ◽  
Tao Zhou ◽  
Zhen Jin
Keyword(s):  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Additional Condition ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Logistic Growth ◽  
Positive Equilibrium ◽  
Uniform Persistence ◽  
Positive Periodic Solutions ◽  
Autonomous Case ◽  
Nonautonomous Case ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

An SEI autonomous model with logistic growth rate and its corresponding nonautonomous model are investigated. For the autonomous case, we give the attractive regions of equilibria and perform some numerical simulations. Basic demographic reproduction numberRdis obtained. Moreover, only the basic reproduction numberR0cannot ensure the existence of the positive equilibrium, which needs additional conditionRd>R1. For the nonautonomous case, by introducing the basic reproduction number defined by the spectral radius, we study the uniform persistence and extinction of the disease. The results show that for the periodic system the basic reproduction number is more accurate than the average reproduction number.

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