scholarly journals Tőkeáttételi ciklus vizsgálata a Nagy Recesszióban: Az Amerikai Egyesült Államok gazdaságában végbemenő hitelciklus felépülésének empirikus vizsgálata = Leverage cycle in the Great Recession: An empirical study of the credit cycle in the United States

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 128-151
Author(s):  
Nándor László Flór ◽  
Géza Sebestyén
Keyword(s):  
Great Recession ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Linear Method ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
Credit Cycle ◽  
The Impact

Jelen cikk egyes makrogazdasági változók hatását vizsgálja a tőkeáttételi ciklus felépülésében az Amerikai Egyesült Államok gazdaságában 1990 és 2015 között. A tőkeáttétel –ahogyan azt a Nagy Recesszió is bebizonyította –sérülékennyé teszi a gazdaságot, amiszélsőséges esetben katasztrófához vezet. A tőkeáttétel a gazdaság egészéhez hasonlóan ciklikusan alakul, ezért ahitelállomány felépülésénekmegértése kritikus.A hitelezésre ható tényezők és más kutatások eredményeinek összefoglalását követően acikkkísérletet tesz arra, hogygazdaságiszektorok szintjén vizsgálja meg,mely változók játszanak fontos szerepet ajelenség mögött.A vizsgálatok elvégzéséhez a szerzők a többváltozós lineáris módszert választottákannak kiderítésére, mennyire mutat egységes képet a gazdaságon belül a tőkeáttétel felépülése.Az elemzés nem terjedki a háztartási hitelezésre, kizárólag a nagyvállalati szegmens folyamataira koncentrál. A szerzők arra amegállapításajutottak, hogy megéri a makrogazdasági változókszerepét iparági szinten vizsgálni, mivel az egyes szektorok esetében eltérő változókbizonyultak szignifikánsnakaz empirikus vizsgálatokalapján. = This article examines the impact of macroeconomic variables over the leverage cycle in the US economy between 1990 and 2015. Leverage –as demonstrated by the Great Recession –makes the whole economy vulnerable, leading to a catastrophe in extreme cases. As in the case of the economy as a whole, leverage is cyclical, so understanding the recovery of the loan portfolio is crucial. After summarizing the results of factors affecting lending and other researches, the article attempts to investigate at the level of economic sectors, which variables play key roles behind this phenomenon. To carry out the examinations, the authors chose the multivariate linear method to find out the general characteristics of the leverage cycle within the economy. The analysis does not include the household lending activity, it concentrates solely on the processes of the large corporate segment. The authors have come to the conclusion that it is worth considering the role of macroeconomic variables at industry level as different variables have proved to be significant on the basis of empirical studies.

scholarly journals Measuring the availability of “good jobs” in the United States for working-class men during the Great Recession and recovery

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Janette Dill ◽  
Robert Francis
Keyword(s):  
Working Class ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
Food Service ◽  
The United States ◽  
Job Quality ◽  
Full Time ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Predicted Probability ◽  
Time Work ◽  
The Impact

In this study, we use the 2004, 2008, and 2014 panels of the Survey for Income and Program Participation (SIPP) to measure the impact of the Great Recession and recovery on the availability of “good jobs” for men without a college degree. We define “good jobs” using a cluster of job quality measures, including wage thresholds of at least $15, $20, or $25 per hour, employer-based health insurance, full-time work hours, and protection from layoff. We find that the Great Recession and aftermath (2008-2015) resulted in a 1-10% reduced probability of being in a “good job” across most industries, with especially large losses in manufacturing, retail, transportation, and food service (compared to 2004-2007). In the 2014 panel, there is only a slight post-recession recovery in the predicted probability of being in a “good job,” and the probability of being in a “good job” remains well below 2004 levels. Although the probability of being on layoff from a “good jobs” does decrease substantially in the 2014 cohort as compared to the rate of layoff during the Great Recession, our clustered measure of job quality shows that access to “good jobs” remains limited for most working-class men and that the recovery from the Recession has largely not reached the working-class.

scholarly journals The Great Recession and Mental Health in the United States

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (5) ◽  
pp. 900-913 ◽  
Author(s):  
Miriam K. Forbes ◽  
Robert F. Krueger
Keyword(s):  
Mental Health ◽  
United States ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Safety Net ◽  
The United States ◽  
Panic Attacks ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Additional Support ◽  
The Impact

The full scope of the impact of the Great Recession on individuals’ mental health has not been quantified to date. In this study we aimed to determine whether financial, job-related, and housing impacts experienced by individuals during the recession predicted changes in the occurrence of symptoms of depression, generalized anxiety, panic attacks, and problematic alcohol use or other substance use. Longitudinal survey data ( n = 2,530 to n = 3,293) from the national Midlife in the United States study that were collected before (2003–2004) and after (2012–2013) the Great Recession were analyzed. The population-level trend was toward improvements in mental health over time. However, for individuals, each recession impact experienced was associated with long-lasting and transdiagnostic declines in mental health. These relationships were stronger for some sociodemographic groups, which suggests the need for additional support for people who suffer marked losses during recessions and for those without a strong safety net.

Path dependence, the COVID-19 crisis, and inequality in the United States

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 198-206
Author(s):  
Daniele Tavani
Keyword(s):  
Great Recession ◽  
Path Dependence ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Security ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Us ◽  
Historical Trajectory

This paper considers both secular and medium-run trends to argue that the US economy was already vulnerable to shocks before the COVID-19 crisis. Long-run trends have shown a pattern of secular stagnation and increasing inequality since the 1980s, while the economy has displayed hysteresis during the sluggish recovery from the Great Recession. The immediate policy response through the Coronavirus, Relief and Economic Security (CARES) Act highlighted the coordinating role of fiscal policy on the economy, but also showcased limits, especially with regard to the paycheck protection program. The historical trajectory of the US economy before the COVID-19 crisis cast serious doubts on recent cries of ‘overheating’ and inflationary pressures that should supposedly arise from the $1.9 trillion relief package just signed into law by President Biden. Projecting forward to the long run, redistribution policies may provide useful first steps in reversing the trends of rising inequality and declining productivity growth that the US economy has seen over the last few decades.

scholarly journals Did the Great Recession increase suicides in the USA? Evidence from an Interrupted Time Series analysis

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sam Harper
Keyword(s):  
Great Recession ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
The United States ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Men And Women ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Suicide Rates ◽  
The Usa ◽  
And Gender ◽  
The Impact

PurposeResearch suggests that the Great Recession of 2007–2009 led to nearly 5000 excess suicides in the United States. However, prior work has not accounted for seasonal patterning and unique suicide trends by age and gender.MethodsWe calculated monthly suicide rates from 1999 to 2013 for men and women aged 15 and above. Suicide rates before the Great Recession were used to predict the rate during and after the Great Recession. Death rates for each age-gender group were modeled using Poisson regression with robust variance, accounting for seasonal and nonlinear suicide trajectories.ResultsThere were 56,658 suicide deaths during the Great Recession. Age- and gender-specific suicide trends before the recession demonstrated clear seasonal and nonlinear trajectories. Our models predicted 57,140 expected suicide deaths, leading to 482 fewer observed than expected suicides (95% confidence interval −2079, 943).ConclusionsWe found little evidence to suggest that the Great Recession interrupted existing trajectories of suicide rates. Suicide rates were already increasing before the Great Recession for middle-aged men and women. Future studies estimating the impact of recessions on suicide should account for the diverse and unique suicide trajectories of different social groups.

Determinants of Homeownership among Immigrants: Changes during the Great Recession and Beyond

2018 ◽  
Vol 52 (3) ◽  
pp. 648-694 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kusum Mundra ◽  
Ruth Uwaifo Oyelere
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Length Of Stay ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
Household Income ◽  
The United States ◽  
Citizenship Status ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Before And After ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Recession Period

In this paper, we explore factors correlated with immigrant homeownership before and after the Great Recession. We focus solely on immigrants because of recent evidence that suggests homeownership rates declined less for immigrants than natives in the United States during the recession and onward. Specifically, we examine to what extent an immigrant's income, savings, length of stay in the destination country, citizenship status, and birthplace networks affected the probability of homeownership before the recession, and how these impacts on homeownership changed since the recession. We examine these questions using microdata for the years 2000–2012. Our results suggest that citizenship status, birthplace network, family size, savings, household income, and length of stay are significant for an immigrant's homeownership. In comparing the pre‐recession period to the period afterward, we find that the impact of birthplace networks on homeownership probabilities doubled while the impact of savings slightly declined.

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