Chapter 8. Using the Recurrent Event Binary States to Examine Economic Modeling Issues

2016 ◽  
pp. 143-162
Keyword(s):  
Economic Modeling ◽  
Recurrent Event

Using the Recurrent Event Binary States to Examine Economic Modeling Issues

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Don Harding ◽  
Adrian Pagan
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Recurrent Events ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Economic Models ◽  
Economic Modeling ◽  
Recurrent Event ◽  
Variance Decompositions ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

This chapter looks at using the binary states describing the recurrent events to help in either constructing economic models of time series or evaluating the fit of such models. The chapter provides a general discussion of the issues that come up when using the binary states in regressions. It then turns to the analysis of complete economic models. In these it is very common to see variance decompositions computed and used to draw conclusions about which shocks are responsible for the recurrent events. It is shown that this methodology is flawed when it comes to shedding light on what causes the business cycle. What can be done is investigated in the chapter, which illustrates how to determine which shocks are important to a matching of the business cycle features discussed in Chapter 5. The discussion moves on to some economic models that have been constructed in the wake of the global financial crisis and which aim to highlight the role of financial shocks.

Economic Contributions of Agriculture, Natural Resources, and Food Industries in Florida in 2015

EDIS ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 2017 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alan W. Hodges ◽  
Mohammad Rahmani ◽  
Christa D. Court
Keyword(s):  
Value Added ◽  
Economic Modeling ◽  
Labor Income ◽  
Food Industries ◽  
Business Taxes ◽  
Commodity Production ◽  
Industry Output ◽  
Property Income ◽  
Broad Array ◽  
Industry Sectors

This analysis was conducted using the Implan regional economic modeling system and associated state and county databases (IMPLAN Group LLC) to estimate economic multipliers and contributions for over 500 different industry sectors. Multipliers capture the indirect and induced economic activity generated by re-spending of income or sales revenues in a regional economy. A collection of 121 industry sectors were included in the analysis to represent the broad array of activities encompassed by agricultural and natural-resource commodity production, manufacturing, distribution and supporting services in Florida. Economic contributions can be measured in terms of employment, industry output, value added, exports, labor income, other property income, and business taxes. A glossary of economic terms used in this report is provided following this summary.

Mathematical Formalism and Political-Economic Content

2012 ◽  
pp. 82-95 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Foley
Keyword(s):  
Political Economy ◽  
Statistical Methods ◽  
Complex Adaptive System ◽  
Economic Modeling ◽  
Qualitative Properties ◽  
Mathematical Methods ◽  
Econometric Methods ◽  
Statistical Fluctuations ◽  
Complex Adaptive ◽  
New Thinking

Mathematical methods are only one moment in a layered process of theory generation in political economy, which starts from Schumpeterian vision, progresses to the identification of relevant abstractions, the development of mathematical and quantitative models, and the confrontation of theories with empirical data through statistical methods. But today the relevant abstract problems of political economy are modified to fit available mathematical tools. The role of empirical research in disciplining theoretical speculation, on which the scientific traditions integrity rests, was undermined by specific limitations of nascent econometric methods, and usurped by ex cathedra methodological fiats of theorists. These developmentssystematically favored certain ideological predispositions of economicsas a discipline. There is abundant room for New Thinking in political economy starting from the vision of the capitalist economy as a complex, adaptive system far from equilibrium, including the development of the theory of statistical fluctuations for economic interactions, redirection of macroeconomics and financial economics from path prediction toward an understanding of the qualitative properties of the system, introduction of constructive and computable methods into economic modeling, and the critical reconstruction of econometric statistical methods.

Empirical analysis of market boundaries in telecommunications

2019 ◽  
pp. 90-111 ◽  
Author(s):  
Natalia S. Pavlova ◽  
Andrey Е. Shastitko
Keyword(s):  
Law Enforcement ◽  
Empirical Analysis ◽  
Mass Distribution ◽  
End Users ◽  
Economic Modeling ◽  
Empirical Approach ◽  
Antitrust Law ◽  
Technological Changes ◽  
Loss Analysis ◽  
E Mail

The article deals with the problem of determining market boundaries for antitrust law enforcement in the field of telecommunications. An empirical approach has been proposed for determining the product boundaries of the market in the area of mass distribution of messages, taking into account the comparative characteristics of the types and methods of notification (informing) of end users; the possibilities of switching from one way of informing to another, including the evolution of such opportunities under the influence of technological changes; switching between different notification methods. Based on the use of surveys of customers of sending SMS messages, it is shown that the product boundaries should include not only sending messages via SMS, but also e-mail, instant messengers, Push notifications and voice information. The paper illustrates the possibilities of applying the method of critical loss analysis to determining the boundaries of markets based on a mixture of surveys and economic modeling.

Recurrent Stroke Risk in Pilots with Atrial Fibrillation

2020 ◽  
Vol 91 (4) ◽  
pp. 352-357
Author(s):  
Jessica Tedford ◽  
Valerie Skaggs ◽  
Ann Norris ◽  
Farhad Sahiar ◽  
Charles Mathers
Keyword(s):  
Atrial Fibrillation ◽  
General Population ◽  
Recurrent Events ◽  
Stroke Risk ◽  
Event Rate ◽  
Recurrent Stroke ◽  
Previous History ◽  
Recurrent Event ◽  
Recurrence Rates ◽  
Medical Certification

INTRODUCTION: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is one of the most common cardiac arrhythmias in the general population and is considered disqualifying aeromedically. This study is a unique examination of significant outcomes in aviators with previous history of both AF and stroke.METHODS: Pilots examined by the FAA between 2002 and 2012 who had had AF at some point during his or her medical history were reviewed, and those with an initial stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA) during that time period were included in this study. All records were individually reviewed to determine stroke and AF history, medical certification history, and recurrent events. Variables collected included medical and behavior history, stroke type, gender, BMI, medication use, and any cardiovascular or neurological outcomes of interest. Major recurrent events included stroke, TIA, cerebrovascular accident, death, or other major events. These factors were used to calculate CHA2DS2-VASc scores.RESULTS: Of the 141 pilots selected for the study, 17.7% experienced a recurrent event. At 6 mo, the recurrent event rate was 5.0%; at 1 yr, 5.8%; at 3 yr 6.9%; and at 5 yr the recurrent event rate was 17.3%. No statistical difference between CHA2DS2-VASc scores was found as it pertained to number of recurrent events.DISCUSSION: We found no significant factors predicting risk of recurrent event and lower recurrence rates in pilots than the general population. This suggests CHA2DS2-VASc scores are not appropriate risk stratification tools in an aviation population and more research is necessary to determine risk of recurrent events in aviators with atrial fibrillation.Tedford J, Skaggs V, Norris A, Sahiar F, Mathers C. Recurrent stroke risk in pilots with atrial fibrillation. Aerosp Med Hum Perform. 2020; 91(4):352–357.

The concept of motivation for effective credit risk management

2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (11) ◽  
pp. 2567-2593
Author(s):  
M.V. Pomazanov
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Economic Modeling ◽  
Type I ◽  
Credit Risk Management ◽  
Curve Modeling ◽  
Business Functions ◽  
The Common ◽  
Lending Decisions ◽  
The One

Subject. The study addresses the improvement of risk management efficiency and the quality of lending decisions made by banks. Objectives. The aim is to present the bank management with a fair algorithm for risk management motivation on the one hand, and the credit management (business) on the other hand. Within the framework of the common goal to maximize risk-adjusted income from loans, this algorithm will provide guidelines for ‘risk management’ and ‘business’ functions on how to improve individual and overall efficiency. Methods. The study employs the discriminant analysis, type I and II errors, Lorentz curve modeling, statistical analysis, economic modeling. Results. The paper offers a mechanism for assessing the quality of risk management decisions as opposed to (or in support of) decisions of the lending business when approving transactions. The mechanism rests on the approach of stating type I and II errors and the corresponding classical metric of the Gini coefficient. On the ‘business’ side, the mechanism monitors the improvement or deterioration of the indicator of changes in losses in comparison with the market average. Conclusions. The study substantiates the stimulating ‘rules of the game’ between the ‘business’ and ‘risk management’ to improve the efficiency of the entire business, to optimize interactions within the framework of internal competition. It presents mathematical tools to calculate corresponding indicators of the efficiency of internally competing entities.

An economic modeling approach for S

1987 ◽  
Author(s):  
MICHAEL FINK ◽  
DENNIS TEKAVEC
Keyword(s):  
Economic Modeling ◽  
Modeling Approach
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