A method and computer program ConRow, which prognostication of development of the dynamically CPLD economic transients is executed by, is described in the article. Such prognostication of economic processes is very important in the cases when their development can result in undesirable consequences, that to go out in the so-called critical area. Extrapolation in a critical area with the use of information about the conduct of the system at an area, near to it, allows to estimate to the lead through of experiment in the critical area of his consequence.
For the imitation of conduct of object the function of review is set on entrance influence. For a concrete object this function can express, for example, dependence of change of level sale from time-history of charges on advertising and set as a numeral row.
Statistics as a result of analysis of row are represented in a table, where the level of meaningfulness is set statistician, and also parameters of the handed over criteria.
The graphic reflection of information is intended for visualization of analysis. Here represented on the points of graphic arts, the crooked smoothing which are calculated as полиномиальные regressions is added. The best approaching is controlled by sight on the proper graph, and also by minimization of their rms errors.
Models of prognostication by sight and as formulas represented on graphic arts, the middle is here determined tailings and their chance is checked up on statistics of signs. After the got models determined also and prognosis values of influences and reviews.
Establishing an order models of Сr(p) of co integrate regression is carried out separate custom controls. The coefficient of clay correlation of ruФ shows by itself pair correlation between lines with a successive change in relation to each other on a size to лагу of l = 1, 2, 3 .
The program was tested on the example of ex-post prognosis at establishing an integration connection and possibility of prognostication of growth of nominal average monthly settlings on the basis of these statistical indexes of consumer inflation in Ukraine.
7. On pair correlation of sequences
