An ordered probit analysis of monetary policy inertia

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Omer Bayar
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Probit Model ◽  
Probit Analysis ◽  
Ordered Probit ◽  
Ordered Probit Model ◽  
Rate Adjustment ◽  
Discrete Nature ◽  
Standard Models ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe two leading explanations of the observed persistence in policy interest rate changes are monetary policy inertia and omitted serially correlated shocks. This paper addresses the persistence debate from the perspective of how to properly model policy rates. An ordered probit model is used to account for the discrete nature of interest rate adjustment, an aspect of policy absent in standard models. Ordered probit results show that the impact of inertia on interest rate setting is considerably smaller than indicated by standard models.

scholarly journals Satisfaction Evaluation of Milk Handlers by Southern U.S. Dairy Farmers

1996 ◽  
Vol 28 (2) ◽  
pp. 313-321 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dave M. Sayers ◽  
Richard L. Kilmer ◽  
Jonq-Ying Lee ◽  
Anouk M. Flambert
Keyword(s):  
Quality Of Service ◽  
Probit Model ◽  
Ordered Probit ◽  
Ordered Probit Model ◽  
Dairy Farmers ◽  
Choice Satisfaction ◽  
Satisfaction Evaluation ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Positive Effect

AbstractAn ordered probit model is used to investigate the factors that determine post-choice satisfaction of southeastern U.S. dairy farmers with their milk handlers. The impact on farmer satisfaction of milk handler attributes, farm/farmer characteristics, and farm location is tested. Results support the hypothesis that mailbox price and the quality of service provided by milk handlers have a positive effect on satisfaction levels. Bargaining-operating cooperatives are negatively associated with farmer satisfaction when contrasted against independently owned milk handlers and bargaining-only cooperatives. Choice and the ability to switch milk handlers are also important determinants of farmer satisfaction.

scholarly journals An Application of Panel Ordered Probit Model to Credit Scoring

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ebru Çağlayan Akay ◽  
Zamira Oskonbaeva
Keyword(s):  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Credit Scoring ◽  
Probit Model ◽  
Ordered Probit ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Ordered Probit Model ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Sovereign Credit Ratings ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
The Impact

Ratings are important in attracting foreign capital so they play a great role in the financial system of a country. The aim of the study is to investigate the impact of macroeconomic indicators on sovereign credit ratings assigned by Fitch. For this aim Panel ordered probit model was applied to the annual data from 2000 to 2011. The analysis rests on panel of 44 countries. According to the results obtained it can be concluded that gross domestic product growth rate , per capita gross domestic product, unemployment, export, default history and the level of economic development significantly affect ratings.

scholarly journals Exploring injury severity of pedestrian-vehicle crashes at intersections: unbalanced panel mixed ordered probit model

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Željko Šarić ◽  
Xuecai Xu ◽  
Daiquan Xiao ◽  
Joso Vrkljan
Keyword(s):  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Injury Severity ◽  
Random Parameter ◽  
Probit Model ◽  
Ordered Probit ◽  
Ordered Probit Model ◽  
Vehicle Crashes ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Unobserved Effects ◽  
The Impact

AbstractAlthough the pedestrian deaths have been declining in recent years, the pedestrian-vehicle death rate in Croatia is still pretty high. This study intended to explore the injury severity of pedestrian-vehicle crashes with panel mixed ordered probit model and identify the influencing factors at intersections. To achieve this objective, the data were collected from Ministry of the Interior, Republic of Croatia from 2015 to 2018. Compared to the equivalent random-effects and random parameter ordered probit models, the proposed model showed better performance on goodness-of-fit, while capturing the impact of exogenous variables to vary among the intersections, as well as accommodating the heterogeneity issue due to unobserved effects. Results revealed that the proposed model can be considered as an alternative to deal with the heterogeneity issue and to decide the factor determinants. The results may provide beneficial insight for reducing the injury severity of pedestrian-vehicle crashes.

scholarly journals The determinants of issuers’ long term credit ratings : American S&P500 index

2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 78
Author(s):  
ِِAfef Feki Krichene ◽  
Walid Khoufi
Keyword(s):  
Credit Rating ◽  
Credit Ratings ◽  
Probit Model ◽  
Ordered Probit ◽  
Ordered Probit Model ◽  
Financial Policy ◽  
Significant Determinant ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Impact

<p>In this paper, we examine the impact that various financial and business profile variables have on credit ratings issued for the S&amp;P500 firms by Moody’s. Our ordered probit model indicates that firms’ financial policy, size, liquidity, interest and debt coverage have the most pronounced effect on credit ratings. Our results show that different coefficients are associated to the increments of interest and debt coverage ratios. Business profile variables are not significant. Liquidity variable is also a significant determinant of the issuer long-term credit rating and not just the short term one.</p>

Applying the Ordered Probit Model to Injury Severity in Truck-Passenger Car Rear-End Collisions

1998 ◽  
Vol 1635 (1) ◽  
pp. 63-71 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chandler S. Duncan ◽  
Asad J. Khattak ◽  
Forrest M. Council
Keyword(s):  
High Speed ◽  
Injury Severity ◽  
Probit Model ◽  
Ordered Probit ◽  
Ordered Probit Model ◽  
Passenger Cars ◽  
Passenger Car ◽  
Vehicle Occupant ◽  
Occupant Injury ◽  
The Impact

Collisions between heavy trucks and passenger cars are a major concern because of the severity of injuries. This research has two objectives. One is to examine the impact of various factors on injuries to passenger car occupants involved in such collisions. Due to the complex interaction of factors influencing injury levels in truck-car collisions, the ordered probit model is used to identify specific variables significantly influencing levels of injury in two-vehicle rear-end involvements on divided roadways. Another objective is to demonstrate the use of the ordered probit in this complex highway safety problem. A set of vehicle, occupant, roadway, and environmental factors expected to influence injury severity was developed. Given two-vehicle passenger car-truck rear-end collisions, the variables that increase passenger vehicle occupant injury severity include darkness; high speed differentials; high speed limits; grades, especially when they are wet; being in a car struck to the rear (as opposed to being in a car striking a truck to the rear); driving while drunk; and being female. The interaction effects of cars being struck to the rear with high speed differentials and car rollovers were significant. Variables decreasing severity include snowy or icy roads, congested roads, being in a station wagon struck to the rear (as opposed to a sedan), and using a child restraint. With injuries ordered in five classes from no injury to fatalities, the marginal effects of each factor on the likelihood of each injury class are reported.

Estimating the ECB Policy Reaction Function

2006 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-34 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kai Carstensen
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
European Central Bank ◽  
Probit Model ◽  
Ordered Probit ◽  
Reaction Function ◽  
Baseline Model ◽  
European Central ◽  
Policy Reaction Function

Abstract This paper estimates the policy reaction function of the European Central Bank in the first four years of EMU using an ordered probit model which accounts for the fact that central bank rates are set at multiples of 25 basis points. Starting from a baseline model which mimics the Taylor rule, the impacts of different economic variables on interest rate decisions are analysed. It is concluded that the monetary growth measure which was announced by the ECB as the first pillar of their monetary strategy does not play an outstanding role for the actual interest rate decisions. More sophisticated measures like the money overhang which uses information from both pillars are better suited. Overall, it is concluded that the revision of the monetary policy strategy in May 2003 which implied a downgrading of the first pillar will not induce any observable changes in monetary policy decisions.

scholarly journals Willingness to pay a premium for produce at direct marketing outlets: an ordered probit analysis

2018 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 19-30
Author(s):  
S Arumugam
Keyword(s):  
Willingness To Pay ◽  
Inverse Relationship ◽  
Fresh Produce ◽  
Direct Marketing ◽  
Probit Model ◽  
Probit Analysis ◽  
Travel Distance ◽  
Ordered Probit ◽  
Internet Survey ◽  
Ordered Probit Model

The concept of farm to consumer direct marketing has been popularly known to create opportunities for farmer-consumer relationship and enhance the sustainability of the local farming business. The objective of the present study was to predict the consumers’ willingness to pay for fresh produce in the direct marketing outlets and agritourism activities. An Internet survey relating to direct marketing and agritourism was conducted to understand the characteristics of consumers. A total of 1,134 participants completed the survey from Delaware, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania. Based on their responses, an ordered probit model was developed at a low premium (1-5 percent), medium premium (6-10 percent) and high premium (11percent and above) to predict respondents’ willingness to pay a premium for produce sold at direct marketing outlets. The estimated results show that consumers’ willingness to pay more to help preserve farmland or local business is highly significant. However, we discovered an inverse relationship for the Mid-Atlantic fresh greens shoppers. On average, as the travel distance increases, the likelihood of paying a higher premium decrease based on each additional mile they travel. The results of the ordered probit model will help all relevant stakeholders from the Mid-Atlantic States to promote direct marketing and agritourism industry in the region and enhance their knowledge of the industry.SAARC J. Agri., 15(2): 19-30 (2017)

Dampak Kebijakan Moneter Pada Output Di Negara-Negara ASEAN Tahun 1980-2014

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 58-70
Author(s):  
Nur Widiastuti
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Fixed Effects Model ◽  
State Data ◽  
Ordinary Least Square ◽  
The Impact

The Impact of monetary Policy on Ouput is an ambiguous. The results of previous empirical studies indicate that the impact can be a positive or negative relationship. The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of monetary policy on Output more detail. The variables to estimatate monetery poicy are used state and board interest rate andrate. This research is conducted by Ordinary Least Square or Instrumental Variabel, method for 5 countries ASEAN. The state data are estimated for the period of 1980 – 2014. Based on the results, it can be concluded that the impact of monetary policy on Output shown are varied.Keyword: Monetary Policy, Output, Panel Data, Fixed Effects Model

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