Financial Liberalisation in Trinidad and Tobago

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (03n04) ◽  
pp. 371-390
Author(s):  
Brian M. Francis ◽  
Kimberly Waithe
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Trinidad And Tobago ◽  
Financial Policy ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Financial Liberalisation ◽  
Complementarity Hypothesis ◽  
Broad Objective

This study analyses financial liberalisation in Trinidad and Tobago within the context of the McKinnon–Shaw model. The broad objective of this article is to empirically investigate the validity of both the McKinnon complementarity hypothesis and the Shaw debt intermediation model in relation to Trinidad and Tobago. These two models purport that persuasive government intervention and involvement in the financial system through the regulatory and supervisory network, particularly in controlling interest rates and allocation of credit, tend to distort financial markets. Therefore, by the removal of administrative controls on the assets portfolio and pricing behaviour of financial institutions, interest rates will rise to levels that will result not only in increased savings and loanable funds but also in a more efficient allocation of these funds, providing, in turn, stimuli for economic growth. Utilising the cointegration approach, the empirical analysis is conducted with annual data from 1970 to 2001. The empirical results support both the McKinnon complementarity hypothesis and the Shaw debt intermediation hypothesis in the long run. That is to say, real interest rates have a significant influence on savings in the long run. However, the results indicate that the real interest rate plays an insignificant role in the Error Correction Model in the short run for both the McKinnon and Shaw theories. Hence, this article provides empirical validity for the McKinnon–Shaw financial liberalisation theory in Trinidad and Tobago over the long run. Thus policy makers should take explicit account of this result in the formulation of financial policy. The sustainability of this policy, however, depends on the appropriateness of other fiscal, monetary incomes and exchange rate policies.

scholarly journals Public Debt and Economic Growth in Niger: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 56-65
Author(s):  
Issoufou Oumarou
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Significance Level ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

Purpose: The aim of the paper is to examine the existence or not of a long run or a short run relationship between public debt and economic in Niger and investigate the significance of this relationship. Approach/Methodology/Design: The study first applied time series econometrics tests such as Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test, Bound cointegration test and Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) on annual data obtained from the International monetary fund (IMF) and the West African States Central Bank (BCEAO). The observations cover the period from 1970 to 2019. The study then performed some residual tests including serial correlation, normality and heteroskedasticity for the accuracy of the prediction of the model. Findings: The empirical results showed no long run relationship between public debt and economic growth in Niger. The short run analysis revealed that public debt and budget balance have short run causal effects on economic growth in Niger. The coefficients are significant at 10% significance level. Practical Implications: This article gives valuable information to Niger policy makers regarding the effects of public debt on Niger economic growth. The article highlights the effects that public debt has on economic growth in Niger in the short and long run. Therefore helping policy makers decide whether to increase or reduce the borrowing trend. Originality/value: The results of the paper give valuable information on the relationship that public debt may have with economic growth in Sub Saharan African countries with the similar macroeconomic indicators with Niger.

scholarly journals Impact of Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Fiscal Policy Uncertainty on CO2 Emissions in the Us

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Khalid Anser ◽  
Qasim Syed ◽  
Noreen Khalid ◽  
Jamshid Ali Turi ◽  
Juned Ali Shah
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Environmental Degradation ◽  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Nowadays, environmental degradation is perceived as one of the serious concerns across the globe. One of the prime reasons behind environmental degradation is CO2 emissions. Therefore, researchers are actively putting their efforts to explore the determinants of CO2 emissions to mitigate CO2 emissions. On this basis, the present study contributes to the existing literature by investigating the impact of monetary policy uncertainty (MPU) and fiscal policy uncertainty (FPU) on CO2 emissions (environmental degradation). The current study employs ARDL methodology and uses annual data ranging from 1985 to 2019 for US. The results from the ARDL model report that there is an existence of long-run relationship among the variables. Moreover, MPU escalates the carbon emissions in both short-run and long-run. This implies that increase in MPU is responsible for rise in environmental degradation. On the contrary, FPU plunges the carbon emissions in both short- and long-run. This indicates that increase in FPU decreases the environmental degradation. Findings from the current study propose that policy makers should introduce reforms and launch policies to shrink MPU. Next, this study proposes that rule should be adopted as monetary policy making framework in lieu of discretion. Furthermore, the current study recommends that FPU should not be utilized as a tool to mitigate environmental degradation, because FPU has severe economic impacts.

scholarly journals The Impact of Exchange Rates on Stock Markets in Turkey: Evidence from Linear and Non-Linear ARDL Models

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mustafa Çakır
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Multivariate Models ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Asymmetric Effects ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Non Linear ◽  
Short Run

In this chapter we investigate the asymmetric impact of exchange rates on three major stock market indices in Turkey using four different ARDL models between 2003M1 and 2018M12. This chapter also attempts to differentiate the short-run and the long-run relationship between exchange rates and stock market indices namely BIST All shares, BIST National 100 index, and BIST National 30 index. Our motivating question is whether the relationship between exchange rates and three major stock market indices are symmetric or asymmetric in Turkey? To answer this, we first use the linear bivariate and multivariate models assuming the effects are symmetric. We then use the non-linear bivariate and multivariate models to examine whether exchange rate have symmetric or asymmetric effects on selected stock stock market indices in Turkey. The findings show that exchange rates have asymmetric effects on all three major stock market indices both in the short and long run. When we look at the long-run, the currency appreciation has positive and significant impact on selected stock markets but currency depreciation does not have an effect. This finding is in line with the understanding that Turkish sectors heavily depends on the import of raw and intermediate goods. The results also show that the economic activity has positive and significant effects on all stock markets implying that it is the main determinant in the long-run. Moreover, interest rates and volatility index were negative and significant in all markets. Thus, it has important implications for policy makers to provide stable prices and diverse investors.

Who Leads the Australian Interest Rates in the Short and Long Run? An Application of Long Run Structural Modelling

2006 ◽  
Vol 09 (01) ◽  
pp. 1-24 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Mansur M. Masih ◽  
Trent Winduss
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Structural Model ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Variance Decompositions ◽  
The Uk

The focus of this paper is to test the cointegrating and Granger-causal relationships between Australian short-run interest rate securities and those of the UK, US, Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore and New Zealand. A relatively new methodology known as Long Run Structural Model (LRSM) (Pesaran and Shin, 2002) followed by vector error-correction model, generalized variance decompositions, generalized impulse response, and persistence profile have been used. The findings tend to suggest that Australia's short-term interest rates are cointegrated with those of its major trading partners. The results of this paper indicate that the ability of Australian policy makers to target and manipulate domestic interest rates may be limited and that they should look to the policy decisions of the US and Japan in particular when setting domestic policy.

scholarly journals Effect of capital inflows on financial development in Ghana

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 85-102
Author(s):  
Daniel Agyapong ◽  
Michael Asiamah ◽  
Joop Lloyd Crabbe
Keyword(s):  
Financial Development ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
Capital Inflows ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Significant Negative Impact ◽  
Short Run

The study examines the effect of capital inflows on financial development in Ghana. The study employs the Johansen and Juselius multivariate cointegration approach in analysing the interactions between the variables using annual data spanning 1970 to 2014. The results show foreign direct investment (FDI), external debt, and remittance inflows have significant negative impact on financial development in the long run. Furthermore, there was significant negative relationships between external debt, remittance inflows, and financial development in the short run. However, the relationship between FDI and financial development in the short run was not significant. The study was only limited to Ghana. However, the study will help countries particularly developing countries in analysing inflows of capital and their effect on the development of financial sector for policy purposes. Furthermore, this study provides avenues for policy makers to properly formulate policies containing capital inflows for effective financial sector development. Also, the study will help policy makers in terms of how issues of capital flight must be addressed and how to take pragmatic steps to channel remittances inflows to productive sectors of the economy.

The Impact of Monetary and Fiscal Policies on the Stock Market in the United States (U.S); Evidence from Linear ARDL Framework

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 132-132
Author(s):  
Aref Emamian
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
The United States ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Fiscal Policies ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Us ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This study examines the impact of monetary and fiscal policies on the stock market in the United States (US), were used. By employing the method of Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) developed by Pesaran et al. (2001). Annual data from the Federal Reserve, World Bank, and International Monetary Fund, from 1986 to 2017 pertaining to the American economy, the results show that both policies play a significant role in the stock market. We find a significant positive effect of real Gross Domestic Product and the interest rate on the US stock market in the long run and significant negative relationship effect of Consumer Price Index (CPI) and broad money on the US stock market both in the short run and long run. On the other hand, this study only could support the significant positive impact of tax revenue and significant negative impact of real effective exchange rate on the US stock market in the short run while in the long run are insignificant. Keywords: ARDL, monetary policy, fiscal policy, stock market, United States

scholarly journals Mobile Money Use: The Impact of Macroeconomic Policy and Regulation

Economies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 51
Author(s):  
Lorna Katusiime
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial Innovation ◽  
Macroeconomic Policy ◽  
Mobile Money ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This paper examines the effects of macroeconomic policy and regulatory environment on mobile money usage. Specifically, we develop an autoregressive distributed lag model to investigate the effect of key macroeconomic variables and mobile money tax on mobile money usage in Uganda. Using monthly data spanning the period March 2009 to September 2020, we find that in the short run, mobile money usage is positively affected by inflation while financial innovation, exchange rate, interest rates and mobile money tax negatively affect mobile money usage in Uganda. In the long run, mobile money usage is positively affected by economic activity, inflation and the COVID-19 pandemic crisis while mobile money customer balances, interest rate, exchange rate, financial innovation and mobile money tax negatively affect mobile money usage.

Determinants of Treasury-LIBOR Swap Spreads

2005 ◽  
Vol 08 (04) ◽  
pp. 687-705 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. K. Malhotra ◽  
Vivek Bhargava ◽  
Mukesh Chaudhry
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Default Risk ◽  
Yield Curve ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Interest Rate Volatility ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Swap Spreads

Using data from the Treasury versus London Interbank Offer Swap Rates (LIBOR) for October 1987 to June 1998, this paper examines the determinants of swap spreads in the Treasury-LIBOR interest rate swap market. This study hypothesizes Treasury-LIBOR swap spreads as a function of the Treasury rate of comparable maturity, the slope of the yield curve, the volatility of short-term interest rates, a proxy for default risk, and liquidity in the swap market. The study finds that, in the long-run, swap spreads are negatively related to the yield curve slope and liquidity in the swap market. We also find that swap spreads are positively related to the short-term interest rate volatility. In the short-run, swap market's response to higher default risk seems to be higher spread between the bid and offer rates.

Determinants of Total Factor Productivity in Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria, and Turkey (1980–2014)

2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 192-217 ◽  
Author(s):  
Phillip Akanni Olomola ◽  
Tolulope Temilola Osinubi
Keyword(s):  
Human Capital ◽  
Total Factor Productivity ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Factor Productivity ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The World ◽  
Government Stability ◽  
Short Run

This study analyzed the macroeconomic and institutional determinants of total factor productivity (TFP) in the MINT (Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria, and Turkey) countries during the period 1980–2014. Annual data covering the period between 1980 and 2014 were used. Data on real gross domestic product (real GDP), labor force, gross fixed capital formation, foreign direct investment (FDI), human capital, and inflation were sourced from the World Development Indicators published by the World Bank. Also, data on corruption, government stability, and law and order were obtained from the database of International Country Risk Guide. Panel autoregressive distributed lag (PARDL) regression technique was used to estimate the model. Results showed that TFP growth rate declined on average by 1.4 per cent and 1.8 per cent in Mexico and Turkey, respectively, while Indonesia and Nigeria did not experience productivity growth on the average. Results also showed that in the long run, human capital and government stability had positive and significant effects on TFP, while FDI and corruption had negative but significant effects on TFP. In the short run, there existed a significant negative relationship between TFP and inflation. However, the effects of human capital and corruption on TFP were positive and significant. The study concluded that human capital and corruption were key drivers of TFP in the MINT countries both in the long run and short run.

scholarly journals Persistent Liquidity Effects and Long-Run Money Demand

2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 71-107 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fernando Alvarez ◽  
Francesco Lippi
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Money Demand ◽  
Asset Markets ◽  
Propagation Mechanism ◽  
Monetary Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Two Parameters

We present a monetary model with segmented asset markets that implies a persistent fall in interest rates after a once-and-for-all increase in liquidity. The gradual propagation mechanism produced by our model is novel in the literature. We provide an analytical characterization of this mechanism, showing that the magnitude of the liquidity effect on impact, and its persistence, depend on the ratio of two parameters: the long-run interest rate elasticity of money demand and the intertemporal substitution elasticity. The model simultaneously explains the short-run “instability” of money demand estimates as well as the stability of long-run interest-elastic money demand. (JEL E13, E31, E41, E43, E52, E62)

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