Leading-Effect, Risk-Taking and Sabotage in Two-Stage Tournaments: Evidence from a Natural Experiment

2019 ◽  
Vol 237 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-28
Author(s):  
Frank Mueller-Langer ◽  
Patrick Andreoli-Versbach
Keyword(s):  
Risk Taking ◽  
Final Stage ◽  
Natural Experiment ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Order Effects ◽  
Information Feedback ◽  
Two Stage ◽  
Multi Stage ◽  
Increase Risk

Abstract Existing theory suggests that three “order effects” may emerge in multi-stage tournaments with information feedback. First, participants adjust effort across stages, which could advantage the leading participant who faces a larger “effective prize” after an initial victory (leading-effect). Second, leading participants might engage in sabotage activities to protect their lead thereby decreasing the rivals’ output. Finally, participants lagging behind may increase risk at the final stage as they have “nothing to lose” (risk-taking). The expected order effects based on existing theory cannot be supported empirically in a natural experiment setting, where professional teams compete in a two-stage tournament with asymmetric initial conditions and clear incentives.

Dealing with Inaccurate Measures of Size in Two-Stage Probability Proportional to Size Sample Designs: Applications in African Household Surveys

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Graham Kalton ◽  
Ismael Flores Cervantes ◽  
Carlos Arieira ◽  
Mike Kwanisai ◽  
Elizabeth Radin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Final Stage ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Equal Probability ◽  
Household Surveys ◽  
Sample Design ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Two Stage ◽  
Fixed Sample ◽  
Multi Stage ◽  
Weighting Adjustments

Abstract The units at the early stages of multi-stage area samples are generally sampled with probabilities proportional to their estimated sizes (PPES). With such a design, an overall equal probability (EP) sample design would yield a constant number of final stage units from each final stage cluster if the measures of size used in the PPES selection at each sampling stage were directly proportional to the number of final stage units. However, there are often sizable relative differences between the measures of size used in the PPES selections and the number of final stage units. Two common approaches for dealing with these differences are: (1) to retain a self-weighting sample design, allowing the sample sizes to vary across the sampled primary sampling units (PSUs) and (2) to retain the fixed sample size in each PSU and to compensate for the unequal selection probabilities by weighting adjustments in the analyses. This article examines these alternative designs in the context of two-stage sampling in which PSUs are sampled with PPES at the first stage, and an equal probability sample of final stage units is selected from each sampled PSU at the second stage. Two-stage sample designs of this type are used for household surveys in many countries. The discussion is illustrated with data from the Population-based HIV Impact Assessment surveys that were conducted using this design in several African countries.

Development of the Teaching Interpersonal Skills for Telehealth Checklist

2021 ◽  
pp. 016327872199283
Author(s):  
Beverly W. Henry ◽  
Danica Billingsly ◽  
Derryl E. Block ◽  
Joseph Ehrmann
Keyword(s):  
Interpersonal Skills ◽  
Intraclass Correlation ◽  
Test Validity ◽  
Kappa Statistic ◽  
Order Effects ◽  
Response Patterns ◽  
Validity And Reliability ◽  
Communication Behaviors ◽  
Multi Stage ◽  
Test Retest Reliability

While interpersonal skills in telehealth may positively impact clinical practice, patient engagement and outcomes, assessment strategies are lacking. We conducted a multi-stage iterative approach to develop and test validity and reliability of the Teaching Interpersonal Skills in Telehealth checklist (TIPS-TC). First, we identified observable communication behaviors from the literature. Second, we surveyed telehealth managers and researchers (N = 11) to rate appropriateness of potential checklist items. Level of agreement (35%–91%) and Kappa statistic (0.18–0.89) confirmed items to be retained and identified items to modify. Based on response patterns and comments, we reduced 44 items to 12 critical checklist behaviors. Third, student clinicians used the checklist with video telehealth consultations and provided feedback. Fourth, we conducted reliability testing with practitioners and administrators (N = 68) who completed the TIPS-TC for two versions of a telehealth scenario. Strong interrater reliability intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) and test-retest reliability ICC (both p < .001), along with non-significant findings of order effects supported the checklist as an acceptable instrument to differentiate high skill from low skill telehealth sessions. The TIPS-TC offers an evidence-based approach to assessing interpersonal skills in telehealth to help evaluate clinician competence and tailor learning activities across disciplinary roles.

Feedback versus an Illusion in Time

Perception ◽  
1978 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 91-96 ◽  
Author(s):  
Donald G Jamieson ◽  
William M Petrusic
Keyword(s):  
Presentation Order ◽  
Order Effects ◽  
Information Feedback ◽  
Response Accuracy ◽  
Time Order ◽  
Extended Practice ◽  
Duration Comparison ◽  
Response Biases

The accuracy of many perceptual comparisons depends greatly on the order in which the to-be-compared stimuli are presented. With comparisons of durations around 300 ms, these presentation-order effects do not diminish, even with extended practice, when feedback about response accuracy is withheld. Providing such feedback greatly diminishes presentation-order effects and coincidentally produces substantial increases in response accuracy. The feedback acts in part through inducing response biases and in part through changes in sensitivity. The contradiction between studies which report time-order errors in duration comparison and those which do not is attributable to differences in the use of information feedback.

scholarly journals Generalized optimizations of two-stage forging of micro/meso copper fastener

2018 ◽  
Vol 185 ◽  
pp. 00002
Author(s):  
Shih-Hsien Lin ◽  
Un-Chin Chai ◽  
Gow-Yi Tzou ◽  
Dyi-Cheng Chen
Keyword(s):  
Simulation Analysis ◽  
Effective Strain ◽  
Cold Forging ◽  
Two Stage ◽  
Forming Simulation ◽  
Multi Stage ◽  
Element Simulation ◽  
Die Stress ◽  
Stress Optimization ◽  
Forging Force

Three are generalized simulation optimizations considering the forging force, the die stress, and the dual-goals in two-stage forging of micro/meso copper fastener. Constant shear friction between the dies and workpiece is assumed to perform multi-stage cold forging forming simulation analysis, and the Taguchi method with the finite element simulation has been used for mold-and-dies parameters design simulation optimizations considering the forging force, die stress, and dual-goals. The die stress optimization is used to explore the effects on effective stress, effective strain, velocity field, die stress, forging force, and shape of product. The influence rank to forging process of micro/meso copper fastener for three optimizations can be determined, and the optimal parameters assembly consider die stress can be obtained in this study. It is noted that the punch design innovation can reduce the forging force and die stress.

The effects of bigger rewards in individual tournaments on efforts and risk taking: evidence from chess

2018 ◽  
Vol 71 (4) ◽  
pp. 979-995
Author(s):  
Rasyad A Parinduri ◽  
Yoong Hon Lee ◽  
Kung Ming Tiong
Keyword(s):  
Research Design ◽  
Risk Taking ◽  
Fixed Effect ◽  
Strategic Interactions ◽  
Incentive Schemes ◽  
Multi Stage ◽  
Standard Rule ◽  
Chess Players

Abstract We examine the effects of bigger rewards in individual dynamic tournaments on efforts and risk taking using the three-point rule in chess. Most chess tournaments use the standard rule while some tournaments use the Bilbao rule, which is identical to the three-point rule in soccer: We observe the same pairs of chess players playing under both rules, a research design that fits fixed-effect models. We find the Bilbao rule makes games 33% more decisive, mostly to white players’ advantage, who win 50% more games. We identify two mechanisms why the Bilbao rule works: It encourages players to play longer and discourages them from using drawish openings. These results suggest incentive schemes that provide bigger rewards for better performances work in individual multi-stage tournaments in which efforts and financial rewards are directly linked, and in which strategic interactions among teammates and with competitors are less complex.

scholarly journals Two-Stage Single-Arm Trials Are Rarely Analyzed Effectively or Reported Adequately

2021 ◽  
pp. 1813-1820
Author(s):  
Michael J. Grayling ◽  
Adrian P. Mander
Keyword(s):  
Final Stage ◽  
Interim Analysis ◽  
Primary Outcome ◽  
Point Estimate ◽  
Two Stage ◽  
Stage Design ◽  
Patient Subgroup ◽  
Future Studies ◽  
Point Estimates ◽  
Outcome Trial

PURPOSE Two-stage single-arm designs have historically been the most common design used in phase II oncology. They remain a mainstay today, particularly for trials in rare subgroups. Consequently, it is imperative such studies be designed, analyzed, and reported effectively. We comprehensively review such trials to examine whether this is the case. METHODS Oncology trials that used Simon's two-stage design over a 5-year period were identified and reviewed. They were evaluated for whether they reported sufficient design (eg, required sample size) and analysis (eg, CI) details. Articles that did not adjust their inference for the incorporation of an interim analysis were also reanalyzed. RESULTS Four-hundred twenty-five articles were included. Of these, just 47.5% provided the five components that ensure design reproducibility. Only 1.2% and 2.1% reported an adjusted point estimate or CI, respectively. Just 55.3% provided the final stage rejection bound, indicating many trials did not test a hypothesis for their primary outcome. Trial reanalyses suggested reported point estimates underestimated treatment effects and reported CIs were too narrow. CONCLUSION Key design details of two-stage single-arm trials are often unreported. Their inference is rarely performed such as to remove bias introduced by the interim analysis. These findings are particular alarming when considered against the growing trend in which nonrandomized trials make up a large proportion of all evidence on a treatment's effectiveness in a rare biomarker-defined patient subgroup. Future studies must improve the way they are analyzed and reported.

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