Germany’s Growth Prospects against the Backdrop of Demographic Change

2020 ◽  
Vol 240 (5) ◽  
pp. 565-605
Author(s):  
Sebastian Breuer ◽  
Steffen Elstner

AbstractThis paper shows how the German Council of Economic Experts (GCEE) determines Germany’s potential output, and compares the results with those of the European Commission. The approach of the European Commission is a natural benchmark, as it provides the basis for the deficit and debt rules of the European Union. In comparison with the European Commission’s method, the GCEE’s method places greater emphasis on demographic factors in estimating labour input. Additionally, both approaches differ regarding how they estimate the structural unemployment rate and total factor productivity. Finally, this paper discusses the limitations of, and the different options for estimating potential output.

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (12) ◽  
pp. 3429
Author(s):  
Svetlana Balashova ◽  
Apostolos Serletis

This paper uncovers linkages between oil price uncertainty, total factor productivity (TFP) growth, and critical indicators of knowledge production and spillovers. It contributes to the literature by investigating the effects of oil price volatility on TFP growth, controlling for two different channels for TFP growth; benefits from the quality of the national innovation system and from adopting new technologies. We use an unbalanced panel for 28 European Union countries for the period from 1990 to 2018. We find that oil price uncertainty has a negative and statistically significant effect on TFP growth, even after we control for technological advancements and the effects of globalization. We also find that the scale of research and innovation and international trade are positive contributors to TFP growth.


2009 ◽  
Vol 41 (5) ◽  
pp. 1152-1170 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roberto Ezcurra ◽  
Belen Iraizoz ◽  
Pedro Pascual

This paper examines the global trend of total factor productivity, efficiency, and technological change in the European Union regions over the period 1986–2004, using the Malmquist index computed by data envelopment analysis. The results reveal the important role played by technical efficiency in explaining total factor productivity growth in the European Union. For this reason, in a second stage, we investigate existing regional disparities in efficiency levels across the European regions, using a nonparametric methodology that allows us to study the dynamics of the entire cross-sectional distribution. Estimates show the presence of a process of convergence in efficiency levels over the sample period, despite a relatively low degree of intradistribution mobility. In order to complete these results, factors such as the geographical location of the various regions, country-specific characteristics, or the sectoral composition of economic activity were examined for their role in explaining the observed disparities.


2013 ◽  
Vol 11 (19) ◽  
pp. 43
Author(s):  
Гордана Илић ◽  
Бранка Золак Пољашевић

Резиме: Погоршање индикатора тржишта рада је реланост са којом се данас сусрећу многе земље. Стопа незапослености у Републици Српској константно расте већ низ година и тренутно је 2,5 пута већа од просјечене стопе незапослености у Европској унији. У оваквим околностима до изражаја долази значај активних мјера политике запошљавања, при чему многе земље акценат стављају на унапређење квалитета радне снаге. За потребе овог рада урађено је кратко истраживање чији је основни циљ било прикупљање информација о ставовима послодаваца у погледу понуде радне снаге на тржишту рада Републике Српске, те сагледавање потреба послодаваца у погледу појединих компентенција запослених. На бази добијених резултата, теоријског прегледа посматране проблематике и сагледавања мјера за подстицање запошљавања које су планиране за неколико наредних година, аутори су дефинисали неколико смјерница за ублажавање структурне незапослености. Суштински, оне се огледају у интензивнијем и континуираном укључивању послодаваца и других заинтересованих страна у процес креирања образовне понуде, развоју инфраструктуре за образовање одраслих, те стављању акцента на развој компетенција а не занимања.Summary: Deterioration of labour market indicators is reality with which many countries are facing today. Over the last few years unemployment rate in the Republic of Srpska continuously increasing and currently is 2.5 times higher than the average unemployment rate in the European Union. Under these circumstances, the importance of active employment policy measures coming to the forefront. Many countries through the employment policy emphasize improvement of labour quality. For the purpose of this paper it was conducted a brief survey whose main aims were to collect information on the attitudes of employers about labour supply on the labour market of the Republic of Srpska, and to understand the needs of employers in terms of competence of employees. Based on the obtained research results, theoretical review of the observed issues, and review of the official measures for encouraging employment, which are planned for the next few years, the authors have defined a few guidelines for the alleviation of structural unemployment. Essentially, defined guidelines are reflected in the following: more intensive and continuous involvement of employers and other stakeholders in the process of creating educational supply, development of infrastructure for adult education, and putting the emphasis on the development of competencies rather than development of occupations.


2015 ◽  
Vol 25 (4) ◽  
pp. 406-434 ◽  
Author(s):  
Agnieszka Gehringer ◽  
Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso ◽  
Felicitas Nowak-Lehmann Danzinger

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 103-122
Author(s):  
Ewa Kaczan-Winiarska

The Austrian government is extremely sceptical about the accession negotiations which are conducted by the European Commission on behalf of the European Union with Turkey and calls for the negotiation process to end. Serious reservations of Vienna have been raised by the current political situation in Turkey under the rule of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, as well as by the standards of democracy in Turkey, which differ greatly from European standards. Serious deficiencies in rule of law, freedom of speech and independence of the judiciary, confirmed in the latest European Commission report on Turkey, do not justify, from Vienna’s point of view, the continuation of talks with Ankara on EU membership. In fact, Austria’s scepticism about the European perspective for Turkey has a longer tradition. This was marked previously in 2005 when the accession negotiations began. Until now, Austria’s position has not had enough clout within the European arena. Pragmatic cooperation with Turkey as a strategic partner of the EU, both in the context of the migration crisis and security policy, proved to be a key factor. The question is whether Austria, which took over the EU presidency from 1.7.2018, will be able to more strongly accentuate its reservations about Turkey and even build an alliance of Member States strong enough to block Turkey’s accession process.


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